Re: What would you deal Garza for?

[SouthSideRyan]

I cannot believe there are multiple people in this thread that think the Nationals can finish ahead of the Phillies. People have gone overboard with the prospect love.

[toonsterwu]

Well, mine has nothing to do with prospect love, other than to say that they have enough chips in the system to possibly make a mid-season deal. I'm talking about their roster as is, right now, excluding Fielder/Harper/Rendon, and I did note earlier that I would still, on paper, pick the Phillies to win the division, but that I wouldn't be surprised if the Nationals edged them out.

 

Edit: Pondering it right now, which is totally pointless with so much of the offseason to go, but on paper, I think the top three teams in the NL are all in the NL East, with the Braves/Nats jockeying for 2nd.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I cannot believe there are multiple people in this thread that think the Nationals can finish ahead of the Phillies. People have gone overboard with the prospect love.

 

Not this year anyway.

[TruffleShuffle]

I'll be honest, I don't. Now, I'm not saying I'm locking them in. I'm just saying I don't have a hard time seeing it. I'm not in love with the Braves lineup, and their farm isn't going to allow them to make any big trades midseason unless they part with a young arm. Milwaukee - let me see how things shake out there. Cincinnati/Philly look dangerous.

 

I'm not saying they will finish that high, but with a strong roster and a strong system, plus an owner willing to spend, I don't have any trouble seeing them, say, win the NL East perhaps.

 

the braves have like 35 young pitchers who are almost big league ready. they could quite easily trade one or two of jurrjens, beachy, minor, teheran, vizcaino and delgado. a few of those guys could easily serve as the centerpiece of a significant trade.

 

the nationals just traded away half their good prospects to acquire gio gonzalez. john sickels ranked the four guys they dealt away as #3, 4, 6 and 9 in their system. so unless they're going to be trading harper or rendon, they absolutely do not have anything to acquire a significant player at the deadline.

[Outshined_One]

the nationals just traded away half their good prospects to acquire gio gonzalez. john sickels ranked the four guys they dealt away as #3, 4, 6 and 9 in their system. so unless they're going to be trading harper or rendon, they absolutely do not have anything to acquire a significant player at the deadline.

 

They just had a pretty solid draft. If guys like Purke, Goodwin, et al. pan out as hoped, the Nationals should have a decent number of chips by the deadline, even if they'd have to go the PTBNL route.

[toonsterwu]

I'll be honest, I don't. Now, I'm not saying I'm locking them in. I'm just saying I don't have a hard time seeing it. I'm not in love with the Braves lineup, and their farm isn't going to allow them to make any big trades midseason unless they part with a young arm. Milwaukee - let me see how things shake out there. Cincinnati/Philly look dangerous.

 

I'm not saying they will finish that high, but with a strong roster and a strong system, plus an owner willing to spend, I don't have any trouble seeing them, say, win the NL East perhaps.

 

the braves have like 35 young pitchers who are almost big league ready. they could quite easily trade one or two of jurrjens, beachy, minor, teheran, vizcaino and delgado. a few of those guys could easily serve as the centerpiece of a significant trade.

 

the nationals just traded away half their good prospects to acquire gio gonzalez. john sickels ranked the four guys they dealt away as #3, 4, 6 and 9 in their system. so unless they're going to be trading harper or rendon, they absolutely do not have anything to acquire a significant player at the deadline.

 

I think you are underrating a bit in regards to what is left. Sammy Solis looked real good when I saw him this year, much better than I anticipated and as of now, there doesn't seem to be a ton of worry ... yet. There's several arms and bats in the lower levels that could sneak up on some folks next year, and as O_O noted, they had a strong draft, and by July, teams show a tiny bit more willingness to do PTBNL's. There's a bit of bias here, as I catch the Nats system a fair amount, perhaps even a bit more than the Cubs this past year, and I'll acknowledge some viewer's bias (I loved AJ Cole, thought he was a premier arm and one of the more dominant guys I saw all year, definitely think he is the top prospect in the A's system personally).

 

A personal sleeper I like quite a bit is Jason Martinson. I don't recall is Sickels ranked him or not. Some concern on the hit tool, so that will be worth watching. A bit older, though, so time is of the essence.

 

But, if you'll notice, I coupled strong system with an owner willing to spend (or I meant to and reading it now, it looks like it's two different thoughts, my bad).

 

First off, the Braves have let almost everyone know supposedly that their top arms are untouchable (I guess nothing is untouchable if the right deal came along but I guess nothing has so far). But if you strip away Teheran/Vizcaino/Delgado's availability (and I believe the indications are that Minor is untouchable), prospect wise, that doesn't leave much in terms of pitching (Gilmartin/Hoover, and Gilmartin would be a PTBNL. If Minor is reportedly untouchable, that leaves Beachy/Jurrjens, and I think with the former, there are still enough people that doubt him (though it's probably not fair), and with the latter, I think some feel he's a bit over-hyped, and he's not exactly the cheap asset teams look for in mid-season type deals.

Their positional depth is fairly iffy - two guys with impact potential, as of now, in Simmons/Bethancourt, but both far away and with BEthancourt, there are some legitimate questions. It really isn't a deep system on the positional side, at least, in terms of intriguing assets. Everything comes down to their willingness to deal a top prospect, which they will need to to make a deal because they simply don't have that much money to spend.

 

One last point I'd note - while Ian Desmond is regularly bagged on, including by me, if the Nationals offered him up, the sentiment I've heard is that several teams would come calling to see if he could put it together. It's something to ponder if they need to make a deal, because Espinosa can slide over, and Lombardozzi could probably be decent.

 

Anyhow, tis early, so can only paint in broad strokes, and things are obviously impacted by what's out there right now (Braves unwillingness to move top talent). Come mid-season, if they are in it, maybe they'd change their mind when they realize that is the only way for them to get a quality trade without spending more.

[TruffleShuffle]

do you really think the braves are going to make all those guys untouchable? are they planning to go with an 8 man rotation?

[fan_in_China]

It is just so tough to imagine a plausible trade for the braves. They don't have any money to spend. If they did, they would have gotten Reyes or Rollins in their only offensive hole. They are set at 1B, 2B, 3B, CF, RF, and C. So that leaves LF and SS.

 

At SS, there are few good SS's that aren't playing for contenders (and no team with multiple good SS's). Castro and Tulo really fit the bill, but they aren't going anywhere. J.J. Hardy is really the only guy that I can imagine them trying to obtain (and he might be too expensive).

 

At LF, it might be even more difficult. Prado was a career .325 Babip guy until last year when he hit .266 Babip. Most people think this means he should bounce back, so his value is pretty much a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR guy. And then they have Constanza who put up .9 WAR over 100 AB's. It is unsustainable, but at that rate he would have been a 5 WAR guy. Imagining he only does half of that, he is still above league average. So you have to find a cheap, talented LF that is significantly better than a 2.5 WAR guy, and playing for a team that isn't a contender. Maybe Choo or McCutchen, but again I don't see them going anywhere. Again the orioles might fit with either Jones or Markakis.

 

So they have only one team to trade with, and they it seems like their talks already fizzled. As stupid as it sounds, I really do think the Braves are going to keep 8 SP's (although I doubt they go with an 8 man rotation).

[toonsterwu]

do you really think the braves are going to make all those guys untouchable? are they planning to go with an 8 man rotation?

 

I think they will make Teheran/Vizcaino/Delgado untouchable. Not all three will break into the rotation this year - my guess is only one of them, with the others in the pen or in AAA. They moved Lowe, and will eventually move Jurrjens. Let's see, what does that leave. If I miss someone, let me know. Hudson, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, I believe. Hudson's contract is up soon, after 2013? Hanson has injury problems. So yes, I think I take them at their word, as of now, that they are planning on making T/V/D untouchable this year (plans can change) as they wait to see how things shake out. I anticipate that Jurrjens will be gone sooner than later, which opens up one spot, and they'll wait to see how Hanson's injury history shakes out, along with giving Beachy/Minor longer looks to allow them to make a better judgment.

[TheDude]

I cannot believe there are multiple people in this thread that think the Nationals can finish ahead of the Phillies. People have gone overboard with the prospect love.

At least one team whose star power lies in younger guys (under 30) has made the playoffs every year for the last several. It's not the norm, but Tampa, San Francisco, Arizona, Milwaukee have all made splashes in the playoffs with a young core of elite talent. Washington fits the bill. 2012 might be a stretch, but it's not an impossibility should Philly suffer some key losses in addition to Howard.

[Guest]

There's a difference in having a young core, and counting on a multitude of guys who have little to no MLB experience to immediately start producing enough to bridge the 22 game gap between the Nationals and Phillies.

[Post Count Padder]

I cannot believe there are multiple people in this thread that think the Nationals can finish ahead of the Phillies. People have gone overboard with the prospect love.

I mean, probably in two years when Howard can't do anything but hit homers, Rollins declines even more rapidly and Utley's knees become Jello. They've emptied most of their system and aren't set up to compete in a couple years unless they keep spending money. This year, they'll finish ahead of the Nats,they did well last year without much of an offense and they'll do it again.

[Backtobanks]

I cannot believe there are multiple people in this thread that think the Nationals can finish ahead of the Phillies. People have gone overboard with the prospect love.

 

Why not? There are multiple people that think the 2012 Cubs will be a .500 team too.

[Rob]

There's a difference in having a young core, and counting on a multitude of guys who have little to no MLB experience to immediately start producing enough to bridge the 22 game gap between the Nationals and Phillies.

 

Even ignoring the Harper/Rendon stuff, the Nationals have only gotten better this offseason. Ryan Zimmerman and Strasburg should be healthy. They picked up Gio Gonzalez. Werth should bounce back slightly.

 

When people are talking about the team having a chance if they pick up Fielder and other stuff goes right, I don't think it's crazy. It's just not likely.

[davearm2]

It'd be pretty ballsy for the Nats to take the plunge on Fielder immediately after Werth kinda tanked in his first year.

[Rob]

It'd be pretty ballsy for the Nats to take the plunge on Fielder immediately after Werth kinda tanked in his first year.

 

Mike Rizzo has never struck me as afraid to take risks.

[davearm2]

It'd be pretty ballsy for the Nats to take the plunge on Fielder immediately after Werth kinda tanked in his first year.

 

Mike Rizzo has never struck me as afraid to take risks.

The fact is, if he is ready to stand by the Werth decision, then it'd be pretty logical to apply the same reasoning to Fielder.

[Little Slide Rooter]

It'd be pretty ballsy for the Nats to take the plunge on Fielder immediately after Werth kinda tanked in his first year.

 

Mike Rizzo has never struck me as afraid to take risks.

The fact is, if he is ready to stand by the Werth decision, then it'd be pretty logical to apply the same reasoning to Fielder.

 

Fielder's 27 and already an elite player. The Werth signing was similar to the Soriano signing. He had 3 great years under his belt when he signed his big deal, but was already 30 and rather than being a true elite player, he was the best thing available to a team looking to make any kind of splash. Like Soriano, the contract given to Werth was a perfect case of a team bidding against themselves, and even if he could keep up his production for a few more years, I don't think there's anyone out there who though that Werth is the type of player that should be making $21 mil/year at ages 36-38, not that there are (m)any players that should be.

[davearm2]

It'd be pretty ballsy for the Nats to take the plunge on Fielder immediately after Werth kinda tanked in his first year.

 

Mike Rizzo has never struck me as afraid to take risks.

The fact is, if he is ready to stand by the Werth decision, then it'd be pretty logical to apply the same reasoning to Fielder.

 

Fielder's 27 and already an elite player. The Werth signing was similar to the Soriano signing. He had 3 great years under his belt when he signed his big deal, but was already 30 and rather than being a true elite player, he was the best thing available to a team looking to make any kind of splash. Like Soriano, the contract given to Werth was a perfect case of a team bidding against themselves, and even if he could keep up his production for a few more years, I don't think there's anyone out there who though that Werth is the type of player that should be making $21 mil/year at ages 36-38, not that there are (m)any players that should be.

I don't disagree, except my personal opinion is that there isn't a whole lot separating Fielder from the likes of Werth and Soriano.

 

To me, the weight thing cancels a lot of Fielder's age advantage, and his production hasn't been head and shoulders better: what it's been is more volatile -- better great seasons, and worse down seasons. JMHO, but the term elite doesn't apply.

[Little Slide Rooter]

It'd be pretty ballsy for the Nats to take the plunge on Fielder immediately after Werth kinda tanked in his first year.

 

Mike Rizzo has never struck me as afraid to take risks.

The fact is, if he is ready to stand by the Werth decision, then it'd be pretty logical to apply the same reasoning to Fielder.

 

Fielder's 27 and already an elite player. The Werth signing was similar to the Soriano signing. He had 3 great years under his belt when he signed his big deal, but was already 30 and rather than being a true elite player, he was the best thing available to a team looking to make any kind of splash. Like Soriano, the contract given to Werth was a perfect case of a team bidding against themselves, and even if he could keep up his production for a few more years, I don't think there's anyone out there who though that Werth is the type of player that should be making $21 mil/year at ages 36-38, not that there are (m)any players that should be.

I don't disagree, except my personal opinion is that there isn't a whole lot separating Fielder from the likes of Werth and Soriano.

 

To me, the weight thing cancels a lot of Fielder's age advantage, and his production hasn't been head and shoulders better: what it's been is more volatile -- better great seasons, and worse down seasons. JMHO, but the term elite doesn't apply.

 

I do think that any of these 8+ year deals are bizarre. It's one thing to lock up a young stud like Braun, Longoria, or Tulo at a young age at a somewhat team friendly price, but anytime you have a veteran, especially near 30 that 8 year deal you're basically paying for the last 4-5 years of the players prime and hoping that they don't fall off too steep of a cliff those last 3, and 21 mil is a lot to be paying for a guy who's more likely than not to be dead weight by then.

 

As for Fielder, I do agree that his body type is an issue, so a 5 year deal is a smarter proposal, maybe a mutual option or 2 to make it look better. Now that The Cubs are lseemingly out narrowing the field to 3 teams who already have a 1st baseman(Nats, Mariners, Rangers) that's what's likely to happen.

 

This being said, I have to wonder if the Brewers would be able to bring him back if they were able to move Hart('12: 9 mil, '13: 10 mil),Wolf(9.5 mil), and K Rod(12-13 mil?) and a portion of their salaries. They should be able to move all of Harts salary if they're willing to accept a weak player return, but the other two won't be as easy.

[Pushfrog98]

I cannot believe there are multiple people in this thread that think the Nationals can finish ahead of the Phillies. People have gone overboard with the prospect love.

Likewise, I can't believe there are people who refuse to believe that anything can happen over a 162 game season. If all the games were played on paper, sure, the Phillies would run away with it, but they were also supposed to steamroll into the World Series last season. Injuries can and do happen. How will Howard's injury impact him this year? Will Utley's hips act up again? What if Halliday or Lee miss significant time?

 

Do I think the Nationals will win the division? No, but Im not going to say that it can't happen.

[davearm2]

This being said, I have to wonder if the Brewers would be able to bring him back if they were able to move Hart('12: 9 mil, '13: 10 mil),Wolf(9.5 mil), and K Rod(12-13 mil?) and a portion of their salaries. They should be able to move all of Harts salary if they're willing to accept a weak player return, but the other two won't be as easy.

I heard a mildly fascinating idea the other day... the Brewers trade Ryan Braun for a big haul, and then spend that money to re-sign Fielder. It's not too hard to argue that Fielder + Braun's trade bounty > Braun + Fielder's comp pick.

 

Naturally the failed drug test and 50 game suspension clouds the picture quite a bit, but interesting nonetheless

[Hairyducked Idiot]

With where the Brewers are in the success cycle, there is no realistic haul that would make it worthwhile for them to trade Braun.

[davearm2]

With where the Brewers are in the success cycle, there is no realistic haul that would make it worthwhile for them to trade Braun.

Only if you think Braun is way better than Fielder.

 

The whole premise is that they can afford one or the other.

[Little Slide Rooter]

With where the Brewers are in the success cycle, there is no realistic haul that would make it worthwhile for them to trade Braun.

 

If they did, they'd need big league talent in return. What if they sent him to Atlanta for something like Hayward, Jurrjens, and another one of their young staters(Hanson, Beachy, Vizcaino, Teheran, Minor, god they're stacked ) or relievers (Venters, O'Flaherty, probably not Kimbrel). That could be tough to turn down.