Re: What would you deal Garza for?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Some people simply arent getting the scenerio here. We're not trying to dump the guy, we're trying to coax teams into overpaying. If someone bites and gives us more than the market has him valued at, then good for us. If not, we keep him and either put him back on the block for the same cost this summer or next winter or we just keep him and maybe extend him. There's no urgency to move him anytime soon.

 

Who are you even talking to?

 

Anyone who says we're asking for too much of a return for Garza.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Some people simply arent getting the scenerio here. We're not trying to dump the guy, we're trying to coax teams into overpaying. If someone bites and gives us more than the market has him valued at, then good for us. If not, we keep him and either put him back on the block for the same cost this summer or next winter or we just keep him and maybe extend him. There's no urgency to move him anytime soon.

 

Who are you even talking to?

 

Anyone who says we're asking for too much of a return for Garza.

 

Nobody said that.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Some people simply arent getting the scenerio here. We're not trying to dump the guy, we're trying to coax teams into overpaying. If someone bites and gives us more than the market has him valued at, then good for us. If not, we keep him and either put him back on the block for the same cost this summer or next winter or we just keep him and maybe extend him. There's no urgency to move him anytime soon.

 

Who are you even talking to?

 

Anyone who says we're asking for too much of a return for Garza.

 

Nobody said that.

 

I guess I misunderstood much of the last page then.

[KingCubsFan]

"Climbing toward market rate prices" in this case apparently means ~30 million in surplus value over two years.

 

Well, yeah.

 

$30 million in surplus value over two years isn't enough to get you multiple blue chip prospects, unless teams get really desperate for starting pitching. They might get that desperate eventually, but at the moment it doesn't seem that way.

 

It's not? Gio Gonzalez just got the proverbial truck of prospects backed up for him to provide what, 40 million in surplus value over 4 years? Mat Latos was largely the same as well, and both of those guys pitch in canyons that might mask their true ability a touch.

Both of them were younger and under team control for longer.

 

And also not as productive, that's why we're talking about the surplus value added over the duration of their team control.

What exactly are you basing your surplus value figures on? Last year's WAR?

[Guest]

What exactly are you basing your surplus value figures on? Last year's WAR?

 

An expected WAR(~5 WAR for Garza, ~3.5 for Gio and Latos), which obviously is heavily influenced by last year.

[KingCubsFan]

What exactly are you basing your surplus value figures on? Last year's WAR?

 

An expected WAR(~5 WAR for Garza, ~3.5 for Gio and Latos), which obviously is heavily influenced by last year.

So you use Garza's career year (by far) as a baseline going forward but project no improvement for someone like Latos?

[Guest]

According to Jack Curry of YES Network, the Cubs have asked the Yankees for Jesus Montero and either Manny Banuelos or Dellin Betances in exchange for Matt Garza.

[Guest]

What exactly are you basing your surplus value figures on? Last year's WAR?

 

An expected WAR(~5 WAR for Garza, ~3.5 for Gio and Latos), which obviously is heavily influenced by last year.

So you use Garza's career year (by far) as a baseline going forward but project no improvement for someone like Latos?

 

That's not the why I would use, but yes. IMO, Garza's improvement is more of an AL East to NL creation than an unsustainable career year, and I think any improvement on Gonzalez or Latos' part is overshadowed by both their pitcher-friendly situations thus far, and the inherent risk of sustaining that performance for 4 years(v. 2 for Garza).

[ConstableRabbit]

According to Jack Curry of YES Network, the Cubs have asked the Yankees for Jesus Montero and either Manny Banuelos or Dellin Betances in exchange for Matt Garza.

Eh, I'd do that deal.

[mookie]

For Montero, hell yes and hell yes another thousand times.

[toonsterwu]

According to Jack Curry of YES Network, the Cubs have asked the Yankees for Jesus Montero and either Manny Banuelos or Dellin Betances in exchange for Matt Garza.

 

To me, that's fair. I know the Yankees are going to balk initially, but a risky arm (and I really, really like Banuelos, but he's a bit risky) and an elite bat. I'm assuming there would be other guys to fill out the trade, but a Montero/Banuelos package is one of my preferred choices.

[JimSorgi]

How bad is Montero's defense at catcher? Is first base his only realistic option?

[mookie]

How bad is Montero's defense at catcher? Is first base his only realistic option?

 

Either that or DH.

[ScrubMD]

How bad is Montero's defense at catcher? Is first base his only realistic option?

 

I think they've been working him at third.

 

EDIT: I thought I heard that but tried to look it up and couldn't find anything.

[JeffH]

I wonder if the Yankees would be interested in parting with Montero if they didn't have to part with either Banuelos or Betances.

 

Honestly, I don't care much for either of them.

 

Montero, Bichette, and Phelps or Warren.

[Sammy Sofa]

How bad is Montero's defense at catcher? Is first base his only realistic option?

 

I think they've been working him at third.

 

EDIT: I thought I heard that but tried to look it up and couldn't find anything.

 

Is it defense keeping him from staying at catcher? I thought it was trouble keeping the weight down.

 

Hell, I wouldn't want him at catcher regardless.

[davell]

I'm not so sure I wouldn't rather have Sanchez than Montero, considering Montero's lack of position. Sanchez could be a 30ish homer catcher with solid defense.

[toonsterwu]

How bad is Montero's defense at catcher? Is first base his only realistic option?

 

Well, there are those in the Yankees organization that still cling to the idea that he can be a catcher. I think he's improved behind the plate, but he's not a guy I want there other than in an emergency.

[toonsterwu]

I'm not so sure I wouldn't rather have Sanchez than Montero, considering Montero's lack of position. Sanchez could be a 30ish homer catcher with solid defense.

 

Too far away, though. Who becomes the centerpiece? Banuelos? I like Banuelos, but I don't know if I like him as the centerpiece to a Garza deal.

[toonsterwu]

I wonder if the Yankees would be interested in parting with Montero if they didn't have to part with either Banuelos or Betances.

 

Honestly, I don't care much for either of them.

 

Montero, Bichette, and Phelps or Warren.

 

It's quite possible that Phelps or Warren will have better/longer pro careers than B&B, but I think you have to gamble on upside in a deal like this, and when that upside is in the upper levels, I think you have to fight for that. Ideally, we'd get something like Montero/Banuelos (I like Betances, but not that much in a deal like this) and Phelps/Warren.

[Guest]

It might be a pipe dream, but I'm still holding out hope for Porcello and Turner.

[TruffleShuffle]

How bad is Montero's defense at catcher? Is first base his only realistic option?

 

I think they've been working him at third.

 

EDIT: I thought I heard that but tried to look it up and couldn't find anything.

 

Is it defense keeping him from staying at catcher? I thought it was trouble keeping the weight down.

 

Hell, I wouldn't want him at catcher regardless.

 

this was the bp scouting report last offseason. i haven't heard much about his weight being an issue.

 

...Despite having praise heaped on him since he was 16, he's a very hard worker, and is constantly striving to improve his defense.

 

The Bad: Despite all of his work, Montero remains a well below-average catcher, and someone who just isn't designed to play to position. He's a poor receiver who handcuffs balls, he has trouble blocking pitches in the dirt, and his arm strength is mitigated by the amount of time it takes his immense frame to get out of a crouch and release the ball.

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm not so sure I wouldn't rather have Sanchez than Montero, considering Montero's lack of position. Sanchez could be a 30ish homer catcher with solid defense.

 

Too far away, though. Who becomes the centerpiece? Banuelos? I like Banuelos, but I don't know if I like him as the centerpiece to a Garza deal.

 

i would definitely take banuelos, sanchez and another pretty good prospect. i'd also take montero and betances. preferring sanchez over montero seems like crazy talk to me, because montero is ready to rake right now in the big leagues, whereas sanchez is still 3 years away, is no certainty to stay at catcher and might have some issues making contact.

[davell]

It might be a pipe dream, but I'm still holding out hope for Porcello and Turner.

Hell, I think that's probably the most likely scenario. Maybe even add in Smyly. Of course, if that's currently on the table, I'd think Garza is already a Tiger. But, if I had to list teams and offers that are likely to wind up being true, that's what I'd put Detroit's final offer at and it's also who I think we make the deal with.

[Sammy Sofa]

How bad is Montero's defense at catcher? Is first base his only realistic option?

 

I think they've been working him at third.

 

EDIT: I thought I heard that but tried to look it up and couldn't find anything.

 

Is it defense keeping him from staying at catcher? I thought it was trouble keeping the weight down.

 

Hell, I wouldn't want him at catcher regardless.

 

this was the bp scouting report last offseason. i haven't heard much about his weight being an issue.

 

...Despite having praise heaped on him since he was 16, he's a very hard worker, and is constantly striving to improve his defense.

 

The Bad: Despite all of his work, Montero remains a well below-average catcher, and someone who just isn't designed to play to position. He's a poor receiver who handcuffs balls, he has trouble blocking pitches in the dirt, and his arm strength is mitigated by the amount of time it takes his immense frame to get out of a crouch and release the ball.

 

Maybe it's just his size, period.