Re: What would you deal Garza for?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Um...twitter seems to be, albeit small sample, smelling Toronto and Drabek involved. Hmm. Twitter, I know, I know, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is about ready to go down.

 

Who on twitter, exactly?

 

it's probably just a regurgitation of this article.

 

only other thing i've found is this.

 

TradeDeadliner TradeDeadliner

#Cubs may want Drabek, Gose, Marisnick, MaGuire for Garza. Maybe not all, could be 2-3 of those 4. RT@BlueJays08 whats the rumour here?

 

i don't really see anything that would lead one to think that a deal is close, or that drabek/other stuff for garza is likely.

 

I dont see why people are so against Drabek. He's like 1 year removed from being a top 20 prospect. After a rough 2011, I wouldnt want him to headline the deal but as the 2nd or 3rd piece to a deal I'd be happy to get him. Certainly over Gose who I still don't get why we'd want over Jackson or Szczur anyway.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

So some of you actually don't think a coach can be asked/told that we are doing things different, and then actually change what they are teaching? If, for instance, we want our prospects to start taking more walks, they can't come up with a way to teach that?

 

I disagree.

 

I'm a bit skeptical about baseball people in an organization rife with developmental failure being able to suddenly adapt to something likely totally different than has been dictated in the past.

 

I believe that stuff comes from the very top. Our people at the Major League level are the ones who implement what is going to be taught in the lower levels by what they believe in, etc. Too bad for us, the higher ups and their way of doing things wasn't very good.

 

I'm almost certain it's been incompetence at both levels

 

Very possible. But when the big man decides the direction of a franchise, I guess we really don't know just how good or bad our lower level coaches are. They are just teaching what they are being asked to teach.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Um...twitter seems to be, albeit small sample, smelling Toronto and Drabek involved. Hmm. Twitter, I know, I know, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is about ready to go down.

 

Who on twitter, exactly?

 

it's probably just a regurgitation of this article.

 

only other thing i've found is this.

 

TradeDeadliner TradeDeadliner

#Cubs may want Drabek, Gose, Marisnick, MaGuire for Garza. Maybe not all, could be 2-3 of those 4. RT@BlueJays08 whats the rumour here?

 

i don't really see anything that would lead one to think that a deal is close, or that drabek/other stuff for garza is likely.

 

I dont see why people are so against Drabek. He's like 1 year removed from being a top 20 prospect. After a rough 2011, I wouldnt want him to headline the deal but as the 2nd or 3rd piece to a deal I'd be happy to get him. Certainly over Gose who I still don't get why we'd want over Jackson or Szczur anyway.

 

Agreed. I'll let those who know more about Drabek tell us why we don't want him and trust what they are saying, but I don't see why he still can't be a very strong pitcher.

[CubColtPacer]

Honest question: what good will trading for highly regarded prospects do if it's the same people in the developmental spots in the organization coaching them as in the past?

 

Well, first I don't think we know that it will be the same people in the developmental spots. There could be significant turnover or at least significant additions to the staff in that area that wouldn't necessarily be publicized at this point in the offseason.

 

Second is that as people have said those coaches/staff could change their philosophy. For most of them, it's not like they've been with the Cubs for 30 years. Many of them have been with multiple organizations, and they aren't necessarily all huge believers in the philosophy that was laid out by the previous regime. And if they don't follow the Cubs extensive manual on player development that Theo has said is going to be written that explains in detail how they want players to play, then they'll quickly be shown the door.

 

And third, I don't think even the previous regime did a lot to mess up top prospects. They didn't do a good job of correcting flaws in raw players, but if highly regarded A or AA players come in it's not like they're going to get ruined by a year of being under these coaches. They're simply not that incompetent.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'm starting to think that Garza is this offseasons Roberts/Peavy/Granderson but instead of trying to acquire him all offseason and coming up empty we're talking about trading him and we'll end up keeping him. Ironically, last seasons version was also Garza but we actually got him that time.

[TruffleShuffle]

nobody is saying they don't want drabek, they're saying they don't want him as the centerpiece of a deal.

 

and i like szczur, but i think it's pretty crazy to prefer him over gose. gose has strikeout issues, but he's reasonably patient and has a high ceiling, and a .253/.349/.415/.763 line is pretty good for a 20 year old in AA (in a pitcher's league). everyone's bitches about the lack of high-ceiling talent in the cubs' system - gose could be carl crawford if he pans out, so there's your high ceiling guy right there.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Random gut prediction: A deal was settled sometime in the last day or two, but we're waiting on physicals and it'll be a day or two before it's announced. Like with Ian Stewart except this time involving useful players.

[seanhopper]

Random gut prediction: A deal was settled sometime in the last day or two, but we're waiting on physicals and it'll be a day or two before it's announced. Like with Ian Stewart except this time involving useful players.

 

I would also not be surprised if the team Garza is traded to wants to use their 48hr window to negotiate a 4-5yr contract extension. I believe in order to give up the type of talent the Cubs are likely requesting, the team will want to secure Garza for more than 2yrs.

[Little Slide Rooter]

nobody is saying they don't want drabek, they're saying they don't want him as the centerpiece of a deal.

 

and i like szczur, but i think it's pretty crazy to prefer him over gose. gose has strikeout issues, but he's reasonably patient and has a high ceiling, and a .253/.349/.415/.763 line is pretty good for a 20 year old in AA (in a pitcher's league). everyone's bitches about the lack of high-ceiling talent in the cubs' system - gose could be carl crawford if he pans out, so there's your high ceiling guy right there.

 

Yeah, but we have 3 high celing CF prospects in Jackson, Szczur, and Ha, 4 if you count Rubi Silva but nothing in the form of corner outfielders. Part of me would just as soon get Drabek, Snider, and 2 young high celing guys. And personally I do think we have some high ceiling talent in the under 21 crowd, just none that we'll be seeing in the next 3 years with the possible exceptions of Jackson, Szczur, and McNutt.

[TruffleShuffle]

nobody is saying they don't want drabek, they're saying they don't want him as the centerpiece of a deal.

 

and i like szczur, but i think it's pretty crazy to prefer him over gose. gose has strikeout issues, but he's reasonably patient and has a high ceiling, and a .253/.349/.415/.763 line is pretty good for a 20 year old in AA (in a pitcher's league). everyone's bitches about the lack of high-ceiling talent in the cubs' system - gose could be carl crawford if he pans out, so there's your high ceiling guy right there.

 

Yeah, but we have 3 high celing CF prospects in Jackson, Szczur, and Ha, 4 if you count Rubi Silva but nothing in the form of corner outfielders. Part of me would just as soon get Drabek, Snider, and 2 young high celing guys. And personally I do think we have some high ceiling talent in the under 21 crowd, just none that we'll be seeing in the next 3 years with the possible exceptions of Jackson, Szczur, and McNutt.

 

we probably have zero high-ceiling CF prospects. jackson doesn't have a high ceiling; everyone thinks he's likely to be average to above average because he does a lot of things pretty well and nothing really well. szczur is only a high ceiling guy if you think his power and patience will develop. ha is probably not a CF and doesn't have a high ceiling, and rubi silva sucks.

 

even ignoring your poor usage of the term "high ceiling," it's good to amass good prospects regardless of position. if brett jackson turns out to be a bum, maybe you hit it rich with gose. or if jackson is firmly established in CF and you don't think gose's bat profiles well in a corner, then you trade gose for a position of need.

[CubsWin]

nobody is saying they don't want drabek, they're saying they don't want him as the centerpiece of a deal.

 

and i like szczur, but i think it's pretty crazy to prefer him over gose. gose has strikeout issues, but he's reasonably patient and has a high ceiling, and a .253/.349/.415/.763 line is pretty good for a 20 year old in AA (in a pitcher's league). everyone's bitches about the lack of high-ceiling talent in the cubs' system - gose could be carl crawford if he pans out, so there's your high ceiling guy right there.

 

Yeah, but we have 3 high celing CF prospects in Jackson, Szczur, and Ha, 4 if you count Rubi Silva but nothing in the form of corner outfielders. Part of me would just as soon get Drabek, Snider, and 2 young high celing guys. And personally I do think we have some high ceiling talent in the under 21 crowd, just none that we'll be seeing in the next 3 years with the possible exceptions of Jackson, Szczur, and McNutt.

 

we probably have zero high-ceiling CF prospects. jackson doesn't have a high ceiling; everyone thinks he's likely to be average to above average because he does a lot of things pretty well and nothing really well. szczur is only a high ceiling guy if you think his power and patience will develop. ha is probably not a CF and doesn't have a high ceiling, and rubi silva sucks.

 

even ignoring your poor usage of the term "high ceiling," it's good to amass good prospects regardless of position. if brett jackson turns out to be a bum, maybe you hit it rich with gose. or if jackson is firmly established in CF and you don't think gose's bat profiles well in a corner, then you trade gose for a position of need.

Agreed. None of those Cubs prospects are legit "high-ceiling" guys. I think it's important for the Cubs to get the best pitching prospects they can if they're going to trade Garza, but ultimately its about getting the most talent/value back, because when the opportunity presents itself, the Cubs can always turn other highly regarded prospects into high-end pitching prospects down the road.

[Rob]

nobody is saying they don't want drabek, they're saying they don't want him as the centerpiece of a deal.

 

and i like szczur, but i think it's pretty crazy to prefer him over gose. gose has strikeout issues, but he's reasonably patient and has a high ceiling, and a .253/.349/.415/.763 line is pretty good for a 20 year old in AA (in a pitcher's league). everyone's bitches about the lack of high-ceiling talent in the cubs' system - gose could be carl crawford if he pans out, so there's your high ceiling guy right there.

 

Yeah, but we have 3 high celing CF prospects in Jackson, Szczur, and Ha, 4 if you count Rubi Silva but nothing in the form of corner outfielders. Part of me would just as soon get Drabek, Snider, and 2 young high celing guys. And personally I do think we have some high ceiling talent in the under 21 crowd, just none that we'll be seeing in the next 3 years with the possible exceptions of Jackson, Szczur, and McNutt.

 

Your definition of high ceiling is very different from mine.

 

At any rate, of that group Gose would have the most power, best speed, and highest walk rate.

 

As to the other point Truffle was making, I'm in agreement. If Drabek is the 3rd piece in a deal, we came out okay. If he's the 2nd piece, I'd hope the 3-4 guys are better than expected... but we're probably still okay. And I didn't even ever really think Drabek belonged that high in the rankings to begin with... so there's that.

[Rob]

Agreed. None of those Cubs prospects are legit "high-ceiling" guys. I think it's important for the Cubs to get the best pitching prospects they can if they're going to trade Garza, but ultimately its about getting the most talent/value back, because when the opportunity presents itself, the Cubs can always turn other highly regarded prospects into high-end pitching prospects down the road.

 

I'm still not ready to throw in the towel on Szczur not being a high ceiling guy. I may give a bit too much slack on account of the whole "he never played baseball full time until recently" argument though. He needs to learn to utilize both his power and speed more effectively and his plate discipline needs to improve substantially, but the tools are there... even if it's somewhat of a longshot.

[TruffleShuffle]

nobody is saying they don't want drabek, they're saying they don't want him as the centerpiece of a deal.

 

and i like szczur, but i think it's pretty crazy to prefer him over gose. gose has strikeout issues, but he's reasonably patient and has a high ceiling, and a .253/.349/.415/.763 line is pretty good for a 20 year old in AA (in a pitcher's league). everyone's bitches about the lack of high-ceiling talent in the cubs' system - gose could be carl crawford if he pans out, so there's your high ceiling guy right there.

 

Yeah, but we have 3 high celing CF prospects in Jackson, Szczur, and Ha, 4 if you count Rubi Silva but nothing in the form of corner outfielders. Part of me would just as soon get Drabek, Snider, and 2 young high celing guys. And personally I do think we have some high ceiling talent in the under 21 crowd, just none that we'll be seeing in the next 3 years with the possible exceptions of Jackson, Szczur, and McNutt.

 

Your definition of high ceiling is very different from mine.

 

At any rate, of that group Gose would have the most power, best speed, and highest walk rate.

 

jackson definitely has a higher walk rate than gose, both last year (when gose's rate improved) and going back through their minor league careers.

 

but yeah, generally when people talk about high-ceiling players they're talking about guys who, if they pan out, could regularly post star-level production in the big leagues (4-5 wins or more per year). gose is more likely than any of the cubs' current prospects to reach that level, though he's still a long shot to do so and is a much higher risk than jackson of making no positive contribution at the big league level.

[davell]

One thing I've never really understood about Brett not having much of a ceiling and considered to be a future average to above average regular is it's usually followed by someone saying he should be a relatively high OBP guy, solid defensively with 20/20 ability? That's probably a 4 or 5 WAR player, isn't it? And it seems most think he's probably close to a sure thing, as far as prospects go, to reaching his ceiling. If that's what he is, I think we'll all be watching him play quite a few AS games as an "averagish" type guy.

[toonsterwu]

nobody is saying they don't want drabek, they're saying they don't want him as the centerpiece of a deal.

 

and i like szczur, but i think it's pretty crazy to prefer him over gose. gose has strikeout issues, but he's reasonably patient and has a high ceiling, and a .253/.349/.415/.763 line is pretty good for a 20 year old in AA (in a pitcher's league). everyone's bitches about the lack of high-ceiling talent in the cubs' system - gose could be carl crawford if he pans out, so there's your high ceiling guy right there.

 

If it all pans out, I actually think Gose could be better than Crawford. If, for example, as the optimists on Gose argue, that he was told to just swing away, and that he has some more discipline inside him, those K rates could fall, and he could make better contact than he did. He has better raw power than Crawford put up so far during his career, and as of now, looks like a better bet to actually play CF, rather than have folks dream about moving him to CF, as folks did for some time with Carl.

 

Not necessarily saying it will happen. I wouldn't mind Gose in a deal, as I'm a believer that in trades like this, you take the best talent possible, irrespective of whether or not you have a similar guy at the position (and Gose is behind Brett developmentally by a fair amount, IMO - that is, I'm not expecting Gose at any point in 2012, and I think expecting him to do anything before mid-season in 2013 would be expecting a lot - still think 2014 would be more realistic on Gose).

 

As for Drabek, I'm really the wrong person to offer an opinion on him, as I've always felt that his combination of stuff and perceived upside was always a bit over-hyped. I'd be fine with him as the 3rd piece in a deal, but I'd want an upper level arm besides Drabek, and well, therein lies some of my issues with a Blue Jays deal (that their top arms are so far away). Not that the Blue Jays don't have enticing pieces, but that's part of why I prefer the Tigers, Yankees packages, assuming we can get some of those teams top guys.

[TruffleShuffle]

One thing I've never really understood about Brett not having much of a ceiling and considered to be a future average to above average regular is it's usually followed by someone saying he should be a relatively high OBP guy, solid defensively with 20/20 ability? That's probably a 4 or 5 WAR player, isn't it? And it seems most think he's probably close to a sure thing, as far as prospects go, to reaching his ceiling. If that's what he is, I think we'll all be watching him play quite a few AS games as an "averagish" type guy.

 

i guess it depends how you define star level production. hard for me to think of a perfect comp - something like victorino, but with a little more pop, lower batting average and more K's... or chris young with less pop but a better batting average, or bj upton with a few more walks. those are all nice players and great value while under team control... i guess borderline stars who will make an all star team every now and then, rather than guys making "quite a few" all star games.

[TruffleShuffle]

As for Drabek, I'm really the wrong person to offer an opinion on him, as I've always felt that his combination of stuff and perceived upside was always a bit over-hyped. I'd be fine with him as the 3rd piece in a deal, but I'd want an upper level arm besides Drabek, and well, therein lies some of my issues with a Blue Jays deal (that their top arms are so far away). Not that the Blue Jays don't have enticing pieces, but that's part of why I prefer the Tigers, Yankees packages, assuming we can get some of those teams top guys.

 

yeah i also thought drabek was a little overrated. frankly i think he ends up in the bullpen long term.

[toonsterwu]

nobody is saying they don't want drabek, they're saying they don't want him as the centerpiece of a deal.

 

and i like szczur, but i think it's pretty crazy to prefer him over gose. gose has strikeout issues, but he's reasonably patient and has a high ceiling, and a .253/.349/.415/.763 line is pretty good for a 20 year old in AA (in a pitcher's league). everyone's bitches about the lack of high-ceiling talent in the cubs' system - gose could be carl crawford if he pans out, so there's your high ceiling guy right there.

 

Yeah, but we have 3 high celing CF prospects in Jackson, Szczur, and Ha, 4 if you count Rubi Silva but nothing in the form of corner outfielders. Part of me would just as soon get Drabek, Snider, and 2 young high celing guys. And personally I do think we have some high ceiling talent in the under 21 crowd, just none that we'll be seeing in the next 3 years with the possible exceptions of Jackson, Szczur, and McNutt.

 

I've defended Szczur here and elsewhere, but he has big issues to address in the upcoming season. You know who he reminds me of - Ryan Sweeney, a guy who can be a good defensive OF, who shows some power in practice but might not have the ability to replicate that in-game with his approach. I've thought Law's commentary about Szczur to Pierre was a bit ridiculous, but he has always made some valid points. Add in a K/BB rate that was going in the wrong direction even when he was "hot" in Peoria, and while I think Szczur still has a good ceiling, I think there's a lot of work to do. Ha looks like a guy that might be someone that the new leadership might not be as high on as well, although to some extent, he might be more intriguing (arguably a better defensive CF than Brett or Matt, has more power than Matt).

 

I just don't think you can pass on taking the best talent possible in a trade like Garza's. If that means a CF, so be it. At some point, Brett was expected to move off CF. I feel like, assuming no on forces him aside, that would be closer to his late 20's/early 30's. Putting him in a corner role could enhance the team if Brett's power comes through and there is a better CF option out there.

[toonsterwu]

One thing I've never really understood about Brett not having much of a ceiling and considered to be a future average to above average regular is it's usually followed by someone saying he should be a relatively high OBP guy, solid defensively with 20/20 ability? That's probably a 4 or 5 WAR player, isn't it? And it seems most think he's probably close to a sure thing, as far as prospects go, to reaching his ceiling. If that's what he is, I think we'll all be watching him play quite a few AS games as an "averagish" type guy.

 

I've sort of felt that Brett's ceiling, to some extent, has been under-rated as well. He has a little hitch in his swing that, combined with his aggressiveness, increases those K rates, but from an armchair analysis, I still feel like a good hitting coach should be able to iron that out over time (don't get me wrong, I don't think he's ever going to be, say, a sub 20% K rate guy, his aggressiveness simply will cost him at times). His power was always a bit under-hyped in past years (although more and more, people seem to recognize that he should have solid power as a regular). If he can cut down on his K's a bit, his production could jump up quite a bit, as here's a kid who handles the bat well and has good recognition at the plate.

 

Now, ceiling is ceiling - it's not something everyone reaches, so don't get me wrong, my expectations aren't that high. But yeah, I still think, to a certain extent, that Brett's ceiling is a bit under-rated. Even the guy that he is expected to be right now, a guy who should be roughly a 2.5-3.5 WAR (based on past player markers to make rough judgments, as I never calculated it out on hypotheticals), is quite valuable. Any uptick would push him up a lot more.

[Backtobanks]

I would think that some of you are underestimating the coaches at lower levels. I would think that they are smart enough to emphasize the skills that a player has. In other words, a big, power hitter would probably be encouraged to be agressive while a small, fast MI would be encouraged to be more patient at the plate.

[TruffleShuffle]

well those coaches should definitely be fired then, since most little guys with no power stop drawing walks when big league pitchers figure out they can't hurt them with the long ball, whereas most big guys with lots of power do a lot of the walking.

[mul21]

One thing I've never really understood about Brett not having much of a ceiling and considered to be a future average to above average regular is it's usually followed by someone saying he should be a relatively high OBP guy, solid defensively with 20/20 ability? That's probably a 4 or 5 WAR player, isn't it? And it seems most think he's probably close to a sure thing, as far as prospects go, to reaching his ceiling. If that's what he is, I think we'll all be watching him play quite a few AS games as an "averagish" type guy.

 

i guess it depends how you define star level production. hard for me to think of a perfect comp - something like victorino, but with a little more pop, lower batting average and more K's... or chris young with less pop but a better batting average, or bj upton with a few more walks. those are all nice players and great value while under team control... i guess borderline stars who will make an all star team every now and then, rather than guys making "quite a few" all star games.

 

I see Jackson as Jim Edmonds light. Just about the same skill set, but not quite as good in just about every area.

[Little Slide Rooter]

One thing I've never really understood about Brett not having much of a ceiling and considered to be a future average to above average regular is it's usually followed by someone saying he should be a relatively high OBP guy, solid defensively with 20/20 ability? That's probably a 4 or 5 WAR player, isn't it? And it seems most think he's probably close to a sure thing, as far as prospects go, to reaching his ceiling. If that's what he is, I think we'll all be watching him play quite a few AS games as an "averagish" type guy.

 

i guess it depends how you define star level production. hard for me to think of a perfect comp - something like victorino, but with a little more pop, lower batting average and more K's... or chris young with less pop but a better batting average, or bj upton with a few more walks. those are all nice players and great value while under team control... i guess borderline stars who will make an all star team every now and then, rather than guys making "quite a few" all star games.

 

I see Jackson as Jim Edmonds light. Just about the same skill set, but not quite as good in just about every area.

 

Hey, I'll take that in a heartbeat. In his prime, Edmonds was like baseballs Scottie Pippen. One of the best of his time but happene to play 2nd fiddle to the best in the game.

[KingCubsFan]

As for Drabek, I'm really the wrong person to offer an opinion on him, as I've always felt that his combination of stuff and perceived upside was always a bit over-hyped. I'd be fine with him as the 3rd piece in a deal, but I'd want an upper level arm besides Drabek, and well, therein lies some of my issues with a Blue Jays deal (that their top arms are so far away). Not that the Blue Jays don't have enticing pieces, but that's part of why I prefer the Tigers, Yankees packages, assuming we can get some of those teams top guys.

 

yeah i also thought drabek was a little overrated. frankly i think he ends up in the bullpen long term.

Yeah I never got it either. I don't think he ever had a K/9 rate above 9. And his numbers in AAA were Jay Jackson-like.