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fan_in_China

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  1. Justin Turner comes out of nowhere and has the highest WAR of any of our pitchers. Lester struggles during the first half and isn't dominate in the second half. He looks like a slight bust at the end of of the year. Javy struggles for a month, and then puts up a Soriano-esque 6 weeks, causing people to call him the biggest All-star snub. Unfortunately Alcantara becomes more Sean Rodriguez than Ben Zobrist. Almora somehow changes his approach completely and becomes patient. He struggles at first, but puts up a couple of months of .300/.400/.500 ball to end the year. The cold war ends, and Cubans come flooding in. The Cubs land pitchers Yadier Alvarez and Norge Ruiz, but are unable to land Gourriel Jr, Despaigne or anyone else of consequence. Torres has an incredible year and ends up a top 10 prospect in all of baseball (top 5 if you don't count the Cubans). The Cubs are in the wild card hunt with 6 weeks left, but experience a string of injuries that knocks them out of the race (Kyle subsequently spends all of his time calling people idiots when they consider the year positive that just ran into some bad luck).
  2. Yoan Moncada has apparently made it off the island. This is the kid I want the most out of all the Cubans (other than Despaigne). Moncada is a 19 year old switch hitter, who already has 2 years above average hitting in Series Nacional (at 17 and 18!). And at 6'2" he still has room to fill out. He will probably be a 3B in the MLB. Unfortunately, unless it takes him more than a year to establish residency in another country, he is not going to the Cubs. He is so young that he would be subject to the International Spending limits, and the Cubs can't spend over 250K on a player. If he does wait until next year I hope the Cubs would be willing to go over their limit, just for him. If I were him though, I would sign a 3 year deal in the Dominican or Japan or maybe Mexico. He could then be a regular Free Agent. If he dominated those leagues, he would get a giant, giant deal. If he wasn't that great, I bet someone would still give him 3 or 4 million more than he would make this way. But I am not sure a 3 year deal in those countries is even possible.
  3. You had me at Daniel Norris. Is he Chucks kid? Aren't we all?
  4. This conversation is suspended until you read better. I wrote a big retort and then remembered Gray. I'm sorry, you could say "botched" for that one. Otherwise there is just the silly semantic battle on whether Correa was an actual "botch". But my point was: drafting is very, very difficult
  5. No. This isn't a case of Steve Trout in the mid-20s becoming the best player in the draft several years later. Both of the last two Astros picks involved prospects who were better in ways that either were obvious at the time (Very few people seriously thought Correa was the best pick in that draft) or should have been seen (Kris Bryant has been mashing since he set foot in pro ball in way that says he probably should have been realized to be the No. 1 overall 11 months ago). Few people had Bryant as the No. 1 guy overall last year either. You are revising history if you think otherwise.
  6. Yeah, Correa is definitely a bum. Correa doesn't have to be a bum for it to be a botch for them. He would have been a fine No. 2 or No. 3 pick in that draft. Then it has been since 1993 (Arod) since the first pick hasn't been "botched".
  7. That has zero chance of happening. I think the Cubs can get one - I think they'll insist, in fact, as they'll need a guy who's close to the big leagues. One of those two, Harvery or Rodriguez (not both) and Sisco is a realistic deal, with maybe a decent A-ball prospect to pad it out. Throw them Russell or Wright as part of the deal. I still like that deal. I don't have a preference between Gausman and Bundy, but I really like Harvey over ERod. I think the Cub's could throw in Christian Villanueva also. Machado is moving to SS next year, and Villanueva would give them a cost effecient option at 3rd. (Bryant deservedly gets the bump to AAA in the scenerio too).
  8. Olney makes a reasonable point that San Francisco has a history of midseason acquisitions to improve their playoff odds (Beltran and Pence), so they could be a potential landing spot for Shark. Are Crick/Susac or Crick/Escobar good enough centerpieces? I can't see them moving all 3. After those guys they have some interesting pitching prospects that would be good fillers. (I really like both Susac and Escobar, but I would think the Cubs would need Crick's ace ceiling to make the trade.)
  9. The Valbuena love made me think. If he and Olt were in a strict platoon they would be OPSing right at .870. That would put them just behind Donaldson (.874) and Solarte (.870) among all 3B in the majors.
  10. The new market inefficiency is pitchers who don't care enough about winning to throw their arm out. I think I am being about 75% sarcastic.
  11. They also have the first trade able pick in the draft (#35 I think), in a draft full of pitchers.
  12. I hope all potential recruits are following this. Coaches are going to keep getting away with this crap as long as they keep getting recruits. I totally agree. At least they kept him under 110 pitches today . 1 unearned run, 9 Ks, 1 BB. A nice day for him
  13. Taillon, Bundy, and Sano all take hits for their injuries (loss of development time and possible position shift for Sano). I like his list better than Law (he doesn't justify his sleepers very well), Parks (way too tool heavy), and BA (seems to try to make fan bases, especially Yanks and Red Soxs, happy). But my favorite list is always the community prospect list over there.
  14. He should be the small side of 1B platoon in the future. Rizzo handles everyone not named Kershaw, Geiger gets Kershaw.
  15. Is there any way we could convince the system to stagger Black and Blackburn's starts? I find it confusing.
  16. I think our pick is going to be determined by the Astros for the 3rd year in a row. The Marlins historically dream big on high schoolers (specifically pitchers). The White Sox love guys who don't have to spend much time in the minors (especially pitchers). I know that Hahn drafted differently than Kenny last year, but I still think there is enough Kenny Williams influence in that draft room that a college pitcher will go #3. So if the top 4 stays solid, we will pick whatever kind of pitcher the Astros don't pick. i.e if they pick Aiken, then we get Hoffman, if they pick Rodon, then we get Kolek (or Aiken if the Marlins like Kolek more). Although if they all stay solid, any one of those 4 is ok with me (although I like Kolek the least).
  17. I've been looking for a reason to say thanks CaliforniaRaisin and everyone contributing here. This minor league season has been a fun one. I like Vogelbomb a little bit, but the slight misspelling here made me think of another great nickname for him.... wait for it.... Vogue le' Bach. With Vogue being ironic given his physique, and the ch in bach being pronounced sh (like they do in French I think). Just think about it.
  18. Why are people booing him suddenly? I don't know if you have noticed, but there is a bit of anger directed his way for the past several pages. Honestly I still like the guy and would understand him not wanted to be traded right now. However, if you don't think people will boo him, then you must not be reading these boards well.
  19. I know that nobody wants to be a jerk here, but... Couldn't Theo say "Hey Dempster, we aren't trading you to the Dodgers, so you have 2 options. 1 Go to Atlanta. 2. Get booed for the rest of the season, and then we will offer you arbitration, where you have the choice of being booed constantly for a year or turning it down and being forced to take a smaller contract than you deserve. Sorry we gave you the chance to do the right thing." Doesn't Theo have some leverage here?
  20. Since we are talking about things that will never happen, there was something I was thinking about the other day. I love that Theo got Soler, but I wonder if 30 mil for him is the most effecient way of revamping the system. With that 30 mil could the cubs have instead said Boston "we will give you Dempster paid off for Bogaerts, Owens, and Lackey half paid off?" With Middlebrooks holding down 3B and the sox being up against the luxury tax, and wonder if they would do it. It might give them enough flexibility to sign Hamels or a big SP next year. This would cost about 27 mil and I think Bogaerts is a better prospect than Soler, not to mention that the cubs would get a decent reclamation project in Lackey. The same thing would work with Rendon and 40 mil of Werth (assuming Werth is worth at least 10 mil over the life of the contract).
  21. Not that anyone cares about my silly little shadowteam, but.... in the last 2 rounds the guy I took was taken almost immediately after the Cub's pick (Dalton Friend and Malcolm Diaz). I don't know if I will be able to sign them, but I think I have a chance.
  22. I like those guys a lot if we have an pre-draft underslot deal with Almora. But if Theo gets lucky and Buxton or Correa drops, I don't think we will have enough room under the cap to take those overslots (Smoral would be a big overslot at 43). So I am hoping Theo takes Correa or Buxton at 6 and a Puerto Rican P or Mooneyham (all of which seem like they will take an underslot deal). Really I hope they take Giolito with the first pick, and then offer him below slot until he starts pitching like a future ace again. That way the Cub's either get a front line starter (with impact potential) or they get a high pick (+$) in next year's deeper draft. I think that is the best outcome, but I doubt Theo wants to come out of his first draft telling fans "just wait until next year". And while I am putting all of my draft hopes here... I really, really want Chase Mullins. The Cubs need an uber-projectable lefty in their system.
  23. (Disclaimer: Whenever I read mock drafts, and I slowly scroll down pretending I am the Cubs GM, I never do this, and I almost always take Correa) This might belong in this years draft thread, but it strongly relates to this topic, so I'll put it here. Seeing the number of talented college guys (especially bats) in next years class really makes me want the Cubs to take Gio this year. Whoever picks him will have 3 possible outcomes: 1. (least likely) He doesn't regain his form, but he signs a cheaper deal to be safe with his only multimillion dollar asset. 2. He looks like a future ace again, and the Cubs have SP with CY upside. (significantly higher upside than the big 3 college guys) 3. He doesn't sign, and next year the Cubs get the no. 7 pick where they can take a college bat (the safest kind of prospect!). It would feel sad for a year, but it wouldn't really lose a year of development time given that the guys most often mocked to the Cubs (Correa, Fried, Almora) are high school guys that are far away. There might be a large hole in my theory, but all 3 of those outcomes seem like giant wins for the cubs. Of course if Buxton or Zunino fall (or if Theo sees Arod/Machado/Montanez :( in Correa) I will be happy with any of those picks. That is just my 2 cents/10,000 words.
  24. Thanks CaliforniaRaisin for posting this everyday! So I haven't looked at everyone of Arizona Phil's posts, but I don't think I have ever seen Gretzky with a hit. Does anyone remember him hitting the ball, this year or even last year? I am hoping for a "the ones who walk away from the Omelas" situation here. Where Gretzky tries for several years, but he spends his entire EXST career at his floor, and all the other 2011 draftees reach their ceiling.
  25. Thank you guys so much for doing this. Last year I would wake up and check these threads almost every morning. You guys are fantastic!
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