fan_in_China

That would be awesome, but... signing Gio (like you said on the previous page) + Smoral would equal at least 5 mil (probably more). After that the Cubs would have to spend like the Whites Sox. I love both of their upside, but handicapping the Cubs to spending near or below slot and $100,000 kids wouldn't really be worth it for 2 high school pitchers that both already have a history of injury. Here is what BA has to say about Gio and I imagine Smoral would be a similar situation in that neither will bring down their $ demands that much. http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/03/how-lucas-giolitos-injury-could-affect-draft/ P.S. I know you probably weren't really saying that the Cub's should get both, but I thought that it is best to crush dreams early.

Howie Kendrick just signed a 4 year extension. I would have enjoyed him being a Cub in 2013, but we can still hope for Phillips/Barney actually becoming as good as a lot of fans think.

It is just so tough to imagine a plausible trade for the braves. They don't have any money to spend. If they did, they would have gotten Reyes or Rollins in their only offensive hole. They are set at 1B, 2B, 3B, CF, RF, and C. So that leaves LF and SS. At SS, there are few good SS's that aren't playing for contenders (and no team with multiple good SS's). Castro and Tulo really fit the bill, but they aren't going anywhere. J.J. Hardy is really the only guy that I can imagine them trying to obtain (and he might be too expensive). At LF, it might be even more difficult. Prado was a career .325 Babip guy until last year when he hit .266 Babip. Most people think this means he should bounce back, so his value is pretty much a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR guy. And then they have Constanza who put up .9 WAR over 100 AB's. It is unsustainable, but at that rate he would have been a 5 WAR guy. Imagining he only does half of that, he is still above league average. So you have to find a cheap, talented LF that is significantly better than a 2.5 WAR guy, and playing for a team that isn't a contender. Maybe Choo or McCutchen, but again I don't see them going anywhere. Again the orioles might fit with either Jones or Markakis. So they have only one team to trade with, and they it seems like their talks already fizzled. As stupid as it sounds, I really do think the Braves are going to keep 8 SP's (although I doubt they go with an 8 man rotation).

In addition to what Davell said, I decided to go a different route, and retrospectively try out this idea. I decided to go back and see what players the Cubs would have chosen if the they had just picked the most expensive player available (that actually sigend) in 2008 and 2009. Now there are a couple of problems: one being that the most expensive isn't always the highest regarded in our scouts eyes, and two being that I would assume we would be able to sign a few guys that didn't end up signing. I didn't really put much time in making sure I got the right #'s, so I might be off a bit, but I think you will get the idea. 2008 --------------------Most Expensive -------------------- Actual 1st -------------------- Josh Fields -------------------- Cashner Sup ------------------- Kyle Lobstein -------------------- Flaherty 2nd ------------------- Ryan Westmoreland ------------------ Shafer 3rd ------------------- Tim Melville --------------------- Carpenter 4th ------------------- Brett Hunter --------------------- Cerda 5th ------------------- Robbie Grosssman -------------------- Bristow 2009 1st -------------------- Wil Myers -------------------- Brett Jackson 2nd -------------------- Daniel Fields -------------------- LeMahieu 3rd -------------------- Max Stassi -------------------- Kirk 4th ----------------- Zack Von Rosenburg ---------------- Rusin 5th -------------------- Colten Cain -------------------- Darvill 6th ------------------- Mike Ohlman -------------------- Raley 7th --------------------Cameron Coffey --------------- Springfield 8th ----------------------- Bryan Mitchell ----------------- Whitnack 9th ---------------------- Brandon Jacobs --------------- Richard Jones 10th -------------------- Graham Stoneburner -------------Joseph Thomas I would probably trade all of the names on the actual draft list together for Wil Myers (it would be close). Brandon Jacobs would have also been a nice grab. Altogether though, I think this shows that it isn't worth $20 mil extra and losing a 1st rounder or 2, even in these relatively decent drafts. 2012 is not suppose to be a great draft.

Losing multiple first round picks and paying 100% extra is pretty significant - especially considering if we simply compensate by going overslot later in the draft again next year we lose multiple first round picks again. Also, if the plan is full rebuild for 2012 at least, that means we're forfeiting probably a top 5-10 pick. That hurts. I agree on losing that first pick would hurt. But considering the amount of overslotting we pulled of this year, would that have been worth parting with Baez. Especially with the fact even more talent may exist in the later picks as other teams will shy away from any signablity issue as they lose that money in the signing pool. Just trying to think outside the box of draft better...Everyone has that plan, what else could be out there. I see what you're saying, but the idea of surrendering a top 10 pick is pretty unpleasant. You might think about such a strategy for a strong class and if the following years draft looked particularly weak (or at least not top heavy), but I'm not sure it's a route I'd want to go. +1 and I think your team would have to be doing well enough in the standings, so as to be sure that you weren't going to lose a top pick. I could see the Yankees or the Phils doing that, but not the Cubs. Instead, if the cubs wanted to improve the system, they could just pick up a ton of IFAs between now and July (especially Soler). Sure the IFA market is not as efficient, but it is way more efficient than dropping $40 mil on a single draft.

I agree with not being in love with Rizzo. I personally would rather gets Blanks for a lesser price, but... I think Theo and Jed disagree. I trust their judgement on this guy. They have done a good job on assessing near ready major league talent. If they get him

So we trade Garza, a top prospect, another good prospect, and our best remaining lefty pen arm for a lesser package than we would have expected for Garza alone? Let's put this one in the no pile. I think Rizzo > Hutchinson and Perez by a bit, but I would understand if you disagree with that. And the idea of a top prospect is relative to a team. I just don't really believe in McNutt or Ha. I think that they would be better suited for Petco. McNutt seems like he will give up a ton of HR's in wrigley. I agree that I think the Cubs should get more, but I am trying really hard not to look at this with a Cub's bias.

While we are on Blue Jays talk and (crazy?) Rizzo talk I have my answer to what I would want to deal Garza for. I know few will share my opinion, but I would prefer to go after AA or AAA bats rather than A pitchers. Those pitchers have an awful attrition rate. Jays get: Garza and Russell (they could use a lefty for their pen) Cubs get: Rizzo, Gose, and some kid Hoyer seems to overvalue Pads get: Hutchison, McNutt, Ha, and Chad Jenkins Jays get their guy and a useful part for some blocked guys. Cubs get 2 major league ready bats that could bring some excitement next year. The Pads move a B + prospect for a B+, B-, and 2 C+ guys (using Sickels site and just guessing for the Cubs players), so they get some value for a guy they just blocked. I was reading a Fangraphs chat the other day and they mod said Gose, Hutch, and Perez was fair value for Garza. I exchanged Perez for Jenkins because I had heard the Pads were looking for pitching depth. You could replace him with a number of players like Cecil, Osuna, or Carreno.

wow!!! I really thought I was onto something there. I had a lot less of a clue about all of that stuff as I thought I did. I still think Yu is more marketable than CJ, but I guess it doesn't matter as much as I thought. Maybe I'm not a big Yu fan after all.

Why? Why does that quiet the meme? It is a red herring, as much as if I put up Nelson Cruz's 3 years of AAA and mixed LaHair's in there so that you couldn't tell (and most couldn't). Just because AAAA players put up good numbers in AAA, doesn't mean that anyone who puts up numbers in AAA is a AAAA player. There are 2 big reasons not to try LaHair out at 1B, Pujols and Fielder. The Cubs should get one of those guys. They are a big market squad, and it would fill the Cub's largest hole. However, if Pujols takes a hometown discount and Fielder goes for an unreasonable sum than LaHair should be an option that the Cubs could consider. LaHair was a big prospect, that has torn it up after he turned the magic age of 27. His big chance was 150 PA in one of the worst hitters parks in the MLB. I'm not saying he should be the cub's first baseman, but I think that if the cub's don't land one of the big boys than I am against them overpaying Derrek Lee, Pena, or someone like that just to be a stopgap at 1B.

Hi fellow cub fans. Long time reader, first time poster here. I have enjoyed reading your posts for 3, maybe 4 years now. And to jump on a bandwagon, Tim you have been killing it recently with the articles. I just thought that I would point out something that has failed to show up in the Darvish thread, although I am sure it has been pondered. A baseball player's salary and contributions don't take place in a vacuum. A GM not only wants to put a good, cheap team on the field, but also wants to put a marketable team on the field. And Yu Darvish is very marketable. If it was promised that Yu and CJ were to tie for 25th best WAR for a pitcher over the next 5 years, and Yu were to cost 5/125, and CJ was at 5/90, then I bet Theo would pick Yu. Yu is just that much more marketable. I bet that the team that wins the posting of Yu will get $5-10 instantly off of Japanese TV deals, jersey sales, and stuff like that. Plus, as long as he is effective, I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a team $10 mil/yr more that a guy like CJ. Similarly, I feel like Theo is not gunshy about taking a Japanese pitcher, because I don't think Dice-K was a failure when it comes to $. I bet that despite his struggles, he still made the team more $ than he cost the team. I am not sure that Yu will be a great MLB pitcher (though I think so), but I do think his marketability should be considered.