Dunn to the White Sox (p. 12)

[Post Count Padder]

With the caveat that free agent destinations are difficult to predict in August, Adam Dunn and the Cubs are an agreeable match. The Cubs badly need a left-handed power bat at first base, and Dunn is a fan of Wrigley Field and Cubs GM Jim Hendry, based on comments he made to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. ESPN's Buster Olney guesses that a four-year offer from the Cubs would seal the deal. The Cubs currently project to have the sixth overall pick in the 2011 draft, which will be protected if they sign a Type A free agent who turned down an arbitration offer.

 

Dunn twice mentioned his ongoing contract talks with the Nationals in his conversation with Wittenmyer. How likely is an extension? According to MASN's Ben Goessling, team sources "are skeptical that the Nationals will re-sign the first baseman before he hits free agency." What's more, one Nationals source says the team's braintrust "loves" Carlos Pena. Pena has slumped to a .213/.338/.439 line in 2010, but he won't require a four-year deal. As a Scott Boras client, I wonder if Pena prefers a one-year pact.

[Sammy Sofa]

I like Dunn. I have no problem signing him to a 4-year deal provided it isn't crazily expensive and Hendry isn't tossing out NTC's as per usual.

[OleMissCub]

PLEASE OH PLEASE

[Cubswin11]

 

What's a realistic number on a 4 year deal for him? $45-55m?

[Butterscup1679666578]

Anyone have any idea what the "comments" he made to Wittenmyer were?

[UMFan83]

Cubs will sign Dunn, NSBB will have an orgasm, casual Cubs fans will eventually rail on him for his striking out and horrible defense.

 

Of course we've been predicting that would happen if we signed Dunn for about 5 years.

[Guest]

So I guess he likes Wrigley now that he's a first baseman and won't have to deal with the "parking lot" outfield filled with "potholes"?

[SouthSideRyan]

So I guess he likes Wrigley now that he's a first baseman and won't have to deal with the "parking lot" outfield filled with "potholes"?

 

To be fair, before Roast's buddy redid the sod, it was filled with potholes.

[sneakypower]

i'd probably rather avoid Dunn and hold out hope that we can sign Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, even Pujols

 

Pena or Berkman shouldn't be a real humongous downgrade for 11 in which we'll struggle to contend regardless, and both should come pretty affordable on a Beltre-type prove-yourself deal

[inari]

Adam Dunn is one of my favorite players. Boy would I be happy.

[lumafia]

Hendry has always wanted Dunn, he will be under pressure to win next year and it would be unwise to hold out for Gonzalez, Fielder or Pujols with no guarantee of signing any of them.

 

I think we would all prefer either Gonzalez, Fielder or Pujols over Dunn, but it's a matter of risk. You could easily walk into 2012 with none of the above.

 

A bird in a hand is worth 2 in the bush. Sign Dunn if you can.

[abuck1220]

i'm torn. i'd rather have gonzalez/fielder, but it sure would suck to watch a year of eric hinske or some BS at 1b and then miss out on both those guys.

[ConstableRabbit]

Will Ricketts subsidize the bomb shelters that will need to be built on sheffield ave?

[dew1679666265]

i'd probably rather avoid Dunn and hold out hope that we can sign Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, even Pujols

 

Pena or Berkman shouldn't be a real humongous downgrade for 11 in which we'll struggle to contend regardless, and both should come pretty affordable on a Beltre-type prove-yourself deal

 

If he comes at a reasonable 4/40 or so type deal, I'd be a lot more agreeable to Dunn. However, I think he'll get a lot more than that in a really weak free agent market and with his much improved defense at first base.

 

Because of that, I agree with you.

[lumafia]

Will Ricketts subsidize the bomb shelters that will need to be built on sheffield ave?

 

Would Dunn be the first guy to hit one on a rooftop above Sheffield in a game?

[dew1679666265]

i'm torn. i'd rather have gonzalez/fielder, but it sure would suck to watch a year of eric hinske or some BS at 1b and then miss out on both those guys.

 

That's a definite concern, but will Dunn be good for 4 more years? Or would signing Dunn leave us with crappy production at first base after 2012 anyway?

 

Also, Nick Swisher is a free agent along with Gonzalez and Fielder according to Cot's. He wouldn't be ideal, but would be an ok fallback option if we miss out on both big FAs.

[UMFan83]

I remember the good old days on NSBB when you could start a thread saying "Adam Dunn went 1-4 with a HR, BB and 3K" and the thread would have 40 pages of 99.95% pro-Adam Dunn talk within 2 hours.

[dew1679666265]

I remember the good old days on NSBB when you could start a thread saying "Adam Dunn went 1-4 with a HR, BB and 3K" and the thread would have 40 pages of 99.95% pro-Adam Dunn talk within 2 hours.

 

It's a perfect storm – Dunn is getting old, will likely want (and command) big, big money and there are two more attractive options that will be available a year later.

 

I still really like Dunn, but not at 4/60 at 30 years old.

[lumafia]

i'm torn. i'd rather have gonzalez/fielder, but it sure would suck to watch a year of eric hinske or some BS at 1b and then miss out on both those guys.

 

That's a definite concern, but will Dunn be good for 4 more years? Or would signing Dunn leave us with crappy production at first base after 2012 anyway?

 

Also, Nick Swisher is a free agent along with Gonzalez and Fielder according to Cot's. He wouldn't be ideal, but would be an ok fallback option if we miss out on both big FAs.

 

There are other things to consider other than who is available. Such as, what big market teams have the payroll flexibility and the need. I don't know how hung up Fielder would be on playing the field, but my guess is that the Yankees are going to roll out a pretty fat contract to get him to DH in the new Yankee Stadium. The Dodgers are going to have a ton of room for contracts for 2012. They only have $12 million committed compared to the $62 mil the Cubs have committed for 2012. The Dodgers will probably be able to put several big pieces in place along with offering Gonzalez the option of staying on the West Coast. These things may not be an issue, but the competition is going to be pretty heavy in 2012 for their services.

[dew1679666265]

There are other things to consider other than who is available. Such as, what big market teams have the payroll flexibility and the need. I don't know how hung up Fielder would be on playing the field, but my guess is that the Yankees are going to roll out a pretty fat contract to get him to DH in the new Yankee Stadium. The Dodgers are going to have a ton of room for contracts for 2012. They only have $12 million committed compared to the $62 mil the Cubs have committed for 2012. The Dodgers will probably be able to put several big pieces in place along with offering Gonzalez the option of staying on the West Coast. These things may not be an issue, but the competition is going to be pretty heavy in 2012 for their services.

 

Is the correct alternative to overpay for a guy who might only be really good for two seasons? This is a terribly weak FA class and there are very few first base options that are comparable to Dunn, especially since Pena's been terrible this year. My guess is that Dunn is likely to get what he wants or close to it. I'm simply not comfortable paying him 4/60 at this point.

 

Especially when you then consider there will be two better options available after next season.

[Guest]

Where is 4/60 coming from? 28 year old Adam Dunn could barely get 2/20, and while his value has been a little better recognized, he's going to get 50% more annually at twice the length? I don't see that.

[Prizefight]

Where is 4/60 coming from? 28 year old Adam Dunn could barely get 2/20, and while his value has been a little better recognized, he's going to get 50% more annually at twice the length? I don't see that.

 

 

That's what I was just looking at. Hopefully a 4/50 could be enough if he's really wanting a 4 year deal

[Backtobanks]

Speaking of big bat/no defense (from MLBTR):

 

Uggla Seeking Five Years, $55-60 Million

By Tim Dierkes [August 24 at 1:28pm CST]

Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla is seeking a five-year extension in the $55-60MM range, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. As Rosenthal notes, such a deal would cover his last arbitration year as well as four free agent seasons.

 

Back on August 7th, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald suggested the Marlins were willing to do a three-year deal in the $30MM range. Uggla, who switched from Beverly Hills Sports Council to Gaylord Sports Management this summer, said in July that a Marlins extension "would make me a very happy man." He'll certainly have to drop his demands if he's to remain with the Fish beyond the 2011 season.

 

In Uggla's defense, there's no perfect comparable for a second baseman who will have over 150 home runs over his first five seasons and signs one year away from free agency. If Uggla's agent thinks his client is in the discussion with Robinson Cano and Chase Utley, those players will get $14-15MM per free agent year. Brandon Phillips, Aaron Hill, and Ian Kinsler will make less, but all five had less service time than the five years Uggla will and signed contracts covering different portions of their careers.

[Ballgame64]

It would be very interesting to see Dunn play for the Cubs. For the pure numbers guys, will anything change watching him play every day. For the "old school" fans, will they appreciate the other things he does when he strikes out 175 times.

 

Like others, I'd rather see Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez, but if Dunn is available at the right price he would be hard to pass up. I don't think it would take a four year deal. He had to settle for a 2 year deal with Washington and now he is two years older so its hard to believe the market is going to much different this time around.

[dew1679666265]

Where is 4/60 coming from? 28 year old Adam Dunn could barely get 2/20, and while his value has been a little better recognized, he's going to get 50% more annually at twice the length? I don't see that.

 

That's what he's reportedly demanding. I know he got only $10 a year two years ago, but whether or not you think he'll get close to what he's demanding depends on how much impact you think his awful defense had on depressing his value. I think it played a big role and, along with a really poor free agent class, the move to first base will help him get much closer to what he's demanding.

 

Again, though, if I'm wrong and we could get him at 4/40 or less, I'd be a lot more open to bringing in Dunn.