Dunn to the White Sox (p. 12)

[Wheelimus]

There's also this to consider. If the Cubs don't sign Dunn and go with the best of what's cheap...is there a snowballs chance in hell that Fielder or Gonzalez have any interest in coming here after we lose 90 some odd games in 2011?

 

Seems the smart play may be to get the guy who is feasible and interested in playing here.

[dew1679666265]

There's also this to consider. If the Cubs don't sign Dunn and go with the best of what's cheap...is there a snowballs chance in hell that Fielder or Gonzalez have any interest in coming here after we lose 90 some odd games in 2011?

 

Seems the smart play may be to get the guy who is feasible and interested in playing here.

 

If Hendry/new GM/the Ricketts can show them a plan to quickly improve the team, yes I think they would have interest in coming here. And too, there's really no reason this team should lose 90 games again next year. I don't think it'll necessarily be competitive, but there are enough resources out there to avoid a 90+ loss season.

[Guest]

Where is 4/60 coming from? 28 year old Adam Dunn could barely get 2/20, and while his value has been a little better recognized, he's going to get 50% more annually at twice the length? I don't see that.

 

That's what he's reportedly demanding. I know he got only $10 a year two years ago, but whether or not you think he'll get close to what he's demanding depends on how much impact you think his awful defense had on depressing his value. I think it played a big role and, along with a really poor free agent class, the move to first base will help him get much closer to what he's demanding.

 

Again, though, if I'm wrong and we could get him at 4/40 or less, I'd be a lot more open to bringing in Dunn.

 

That's what he wanted last time around too. And while switching positions has helped his value a bit, it's also limited his potential suitors. And he's 2 years older.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think it's really a crazy idea to pass on a guy you can get this year for the theoretical possibility of getting somebody else next year. It makes very little sense.

[soapy]

There's no way I'd pass on Dunn at a resonable price (something like 4/48 or whatever) and just bank on getting Gonzalez in 2012. That is just an enormous risk. I don't know much about what Fielder is going to want/get and/or where he wants to play, but the Cubs signing Gonzalez is a huge long-shot. Edited August 24, 2010 by soapy

[champaignchris]

I think it's really a crazy idea to pass on a guy you can get this year for the theoretical possibility of getting somebody else next year. It makes very little sense.

 

I agree. I don't see the down side to Dunn.

 

I'll admit to being one of those holding out hope that the Cubs can improve themselves enough in the offseason to make next year interesting.

[daske17]

My only concern is that because of Hendry's positive relationship with Dunn, he'll get a huge five-year deal with a no-trade clause.

 

Hendry isn't exactly known for reasonable deals.

[lumafia]

It just doesn't make sense to wait for Gonzalez. You would pass on a .900+ OPS LH hitting 31-year old 1B who is going to hit 35-40 HRs and drive in 85-100 runs for 4-year/50 million for a chance to wait and see if you can sign a .900+ OPS 29-year old 1B who is going to hit 30-35 HRs and drive in 85-100 runs for 5-6 years/75-90 million.

 

I can understand rolling the dice on Fielder, but there isn't a huge difference in what you get from Gonzalez versus what you get from Dunn.

[SouthSideRyan]

Considering likely contracts, Fielder would be the last of the 3 that I'd want

[MSG T]

It just doesn't make sense to wait for Gonzalez. You would pass on a .900+ OPS LH hitting 31-year old 1B who is going to hit 35-40 HRs and drive in 85-100 runs for 4-year/50 million for a chance to wait and see if you can sign a .900+ OPS 29-year old 1B who is going to hit 30-35 HRs and drive in 85-100 runs for 5-6 years/75-90 million.

 

I can understand rolling the dice on Fielder, but there isn't a huge difference in what you get from Gonzalez versus what you get from Dunn.

 

While I agree with you're overall point, and would absolutely love to see Dunn as a Cub... you really don't think there'd be a significant difference in the numbers the two would put up over the course of their respective contracts? That's assuming performance in Wrigley over that time. There's a reason their numbers are very similar but their OPS+ is like 16 points off. There's also a reason AG is sitting at 5.6 WAR and Dunn is at 2.9 WAR.

[dew1679666265]

That's what he wanted last time around too. And while switching positions has helped his value a bit, it's also limited his potential suitors. And he's 2 years older.

 

When he signed that contract the other available OFs included Bobby Abreu (.842 OPS), Pat Burrell (.874 OPS), Raul Ibanez (.837), Manny Ramirez (1.031) and Milton Bradley (.999). Other FAs that year included Teixeira, Furcal, Burnett, Lowe, Sabathia, Fuentes, K-Rod and Kerry Wood.

 

This year's first basemen: Berkman (.779), Konerko (.971), DLee (.737), Overbay (.778) and Pena (.777). Other FAs include Beltre, Cantu, Victor Martinez, Crawford, De La Rosa, Cliff Lee, Lilly, Vazquez and Putz. The free agent class two years ago was dramatically better than this one and had many more big money players available compared to this one. Dunn is one of the premiere free agents in this class, while he was one in a crowd of many in 2009. I don't know that it's a certainty fewer teams will have interest in him, but bigger market teams almost certainly will (the Cubs for one).

[dew1679666265]

I think it's really a crazy idea to pass on a guy you can get this year for the theoretical possibility of getting somebody else next year. It makes very little sense.

 

If we're paying a reasonable price for him, I'll agree. If the bidding for him gets too high and we'll overpay for him, I'd rather wait since we're probably not going to be competitive next year anyway.

[dew1679666265]

My only concern is that because of Hendry's positive relationship with Dunn, he'll get a huge five-year deal with a no-trade clause.

 

Hendry isn't exactly known for reasonable deals.

 

Outside of the Soriano contract, he hasn't given out too many outlandishly huge contracts either. The Ramirez, Z, DLee, Kosuke, Byrd, Dempster and Marquis contracts were all equal to or below other offers reportedly out there. His main contract problem is handing out multi years to relievers.

[dew1679666265]

I'll admit to being one of those holding out hope that the Cubs can improve themselves enough in the offseason to make next year interesting.

 

This is an interesting point. If we resign ourselves to the idea that we won't contend next year, then I'd wait for Gonzalez/Fielder and then go for Swisher as a fallback option if we miss out on them. However, if we really believe we can contend next season, then I'm more ok with overpaying for Dunn.

 

My point of view is I don't think the free agent market matches up with what we'll need to contend without overly burdening ourselves with huge contracts to old players. Because of that, I'm more willing to wait for the better player rather than making sure to fill the hole.

[haubrich91]

So it's safe to say Dunn is the #1 target for the off-season?

[RynoRules]

Pretty sure I said this another thread, but I'd try to get Dunn at 3 yr's, mutual option for fourth, at 12 mill for the first three years and 15 mill for the option/fourth. Don't know if Dunn would risk a non-guaranteed 4th yr though.

[Sammy Sofa]

I think it's really a crazy idea to pass on a guy you can get this year for the theoretical possibility of getting somebody else next year. It makes very little sense.

 

If we're paying a reasonable price for him, I'll agree. If the bidding for him gets too high and we'll overpay for him, I'd rather wait since we're probably not going to be competitive next year anyway.

 

Wait for what? A 29-year-old and 28-year-old who aren't going to put up vastly different numbers who are going to command a LOT more? You keep referring to Dunn like he's this old man, yet he'd be 30 if he starts the season with the Cubs next year. Fielder would be just turning 28 at the start of the 2012 season, so yes, he's younger but he's going to command a ton more money than Dunn, yet does he really bring THAT much more to the table? Gonzalez will be 30 when he's a FA, too, and he too is going to command much more money. Why do you think Dunn is someone they should pass on?

[Abe Frohman]

There are a bunch of good 1st basemen that are available this offseason. If the Cubs sign Adam Dunn, let alone give him a 4 year contract - consider the offseason an utter failure.

 

Go hard after Adrian Gonzalez. Settle for Berkman.

[Outshined_One]

Why exactly are some people so sure the Cubs are going to get Adrian Gonzalez next offseason?

[XZero771679666304]

I think it's really a crazy idea to pass on a guy you can get this year for the theoretical possibility of getting somebody else next year. It makes very little sense.

 

If we're paying a reasonable price for him, I'll agree. If the bidding for him gets too high and we'll overpay for him, I'd rather wait since we're probably not going to be competitive next year anyway.

 

Wait for what? A 29-year-old and 28-year-old who aren't going to put up vastly different numbers who are going to command a LOT more? You keep referring to Dunn like he's this old man, yet he'd be 30 if he starts the season with the Cubs next year. Fielder would be just turning 28 at the start of the 2012 season, so yes, he's younger but he's going to command a ton more money than Dunn, yet does he really bring THAT much more to the table? Gonzalez will be 30 when he's a FA, too, and he too is going to command much more money. Why do you think Dunn is someone they should pass on?

 

Dunn will turn 31 in November. Gonzalez will be 29 at the start of the 2012 season. So Dunn will be about 1 1/2 years older at the beginning of his hypothetical Cubs career than AGon would be. AGon is also a much better defender, and a more well rounded hitter.

 

Having said that, their offensive profiles are close enough that I think it would be foolish to pass over Dunn to wait on AGon, who will cost more and have more suitors.

 

I'm not big on Fielder because he has played a lot of games on a challenged frame. I have longevity questions about him. Also he is 100 OPS points better at night (looking at 3-year splits) than during the day, whereas both Dunn and AGon are markedly better during the day (about 80 points for Dunn, and 150 for AGon).

 

This is all provided Dunn's contract demands are reasonable.

[XZero771679666304]

There are a bunch of good 1st basemen that are available this offseason. If the Cubs sign Adam Dunn, let alone give him a 4 year contract - consider the offseason an utter failure.

 

Go hard after Adrian Gonzalez. Settle for Berkman.

 

There are a bunch of stopgap 1B on the market this offseason.

 

Berkman is trending the wrong way, and will be 35 to start next season. No thanks.

[Rob]

Dunn does not have a skillset that ages well. If the contract is short and sweet, I'd love to have him. If we're talking 4/50, I'm out. I'll be real interested to see what he gets, since front offices seem to either love him or want to stay the hell away.

 

Billy Butler > Adam Dunn (with short contract) > Adrian Gonzalez (with market value extension) > Adam Dunn (with bigger pact) > Adrian Gonzalez (let him walk after season) > Prince Fielder (let him walk) > Carlos Pena > Lance Berkman > Jorge Cantu > Derrek Lee > Russell Branyan > Paul Konerko > Lyle Overbay > AAAA filler > David Ortiz > Prince Fielder (with market value extension)

[Banedon]

So...the first crazy free agent thread starts in August this year eh?

 

This thread is going to be 300 pages.

[C.C.]

I'm hearing he's set to sign the day free agency starts. 4/48 with a 5th year player option.

[shnsajax]

Being one of the biggest Dunn critics over the years I am now fully on board for signing Dunn. I would prefer Adrian Gonzalez but its going to be expensive regardless. I could see Dunn getting 4/48, but would rather have him for 3 as mentioned before.