Dunn to the White Sox (p. 12)

[soapy]

As O_O (and other probably) have mentioned, what makes people so sure the Cubs have a shot at getting Gonzalez (either via trade or as a FA in 2012)? I really don't see it.

[Little Slide Rooter]

As O_O (and other probably) have mentioned, what makes people so sure the Cubs have a shot at getting Gonzalez (either via trade or as a FA in 2012)? I really don't see it.

 

Why wouldnt they? Unless the Padres extend him, pretty much every team with the money will be after him. The Yankees may have trouble justifieng it with Teixera signed forever, but the Red Sox will go after him hard as well, and Im sure the Cubs will be right in it, especially with a decent amount of money off the books in 2012 such as Fukudome, Silva, Grabow, and I believe Zambrano.

[soapy]

I would swear I've read multiple places that he's a west coast guy and has expressed a desire to stay there. Maybe I'm wrong. If the Padres don't tank next year, I think there's an extremely high chance they'll shell out whatever it takes to keep him.

[A New Era]

Get Dunn this offseason (as long as it's not overpaying), then you've got your starting 1st baseman for the chicago cubs for the next 4 years. Don't risk missing out and then wishing you would have signed Dunn when you had the chance.

[dew1679666265]

Wait for what? A 29-year-old and 28-year-old who aren't going to put up vastly different numbers who are going to command a LOT more? You keep referring to Dunn like he's this old man, yet he'd be 30 if he starts the season with the Cubs next year. Fielder would be just turning 28 at the start of the 2012 season, so yes, he's younger but he's going to command a ton more money than Dunn, yet does he really bring THAT much more to the table? Gonzalez will be 30 when he's a FA, too, and he too is going to command much more money. Why do you think Dunn is someone they should pass on?

 

As has been mentioned, there will be a nearly 2 year difference between Dunn and Gonzalez when they sign. Dunn will be 31 in November, Gonzalez will be 29 in May of 2012. That's not a major gap in age, but it's pretty significant. Then you also consider Dunn may only have 2 years of high-end productivity during his contract and one of those two years will probably be in a non-competitive season (2011). You could well get 4+ high quality years out of Gonzalez when you sign him and, ideally, the Cubs are highly competitive in all those years.

 

And Gonzalez will command more money and how much depends on whether we should focus on Dunn or Gonzalez. If Dunn asks for and gets a 4/50-60 type deal and Gonzalez gets a 6/120 (or even 8/160) deal at two years younger, is that worth it? Gonzalez has averaged more than double the WAR that Dunn has over the past four seasons and Gonzalez's worst WAR in that time frame (3.2) is nearly as good as Dunn's best (3.3) this year. Factor in that Gonzalez's production will come at a point that we'll be able to contend (unlike next year most likely) and he's far more valuable than Dunn.

 

The biggest question is whether we'll have a realistic shot at Gonzalez and that's a very legitimate question. That's where Hendry will have to make the determination as to whether he's likely to hit the free market or not. There's ample reason to believe, however, that Gonzalez will be available and if he is, he's a much better alternative to Dunn.

[dew1679666265]

Why exactly are some people so sure the Cubs are going to get Adrian Gonzalez next offseason?

 

I think there's a good chance he'll be available, not that the Cubs necessarily will get him. That said, the free agent market will be much, much stronger (as it stands now) in 2012 than this offseason. Thus, there's far more alternatives for teams to spend on that year than there are this year. With a more shallow pool, you're looking at more of a likelihood that teams get desperate to make a splash and try too heavily for Dunn, whereas teams might start shying away more quickly from Gonzalez when there are numerous other upgrade opportunities available on the market.

[Sammy Sofa]

Hold on, the age point between Dunn and Gonzalez is ridiculous. Between when either would theoretically sign with the Cubs when first available you're looking at a difference of less than a year in age. Why do people keep pointing out that Dunn will be 31 at the end of his first season (November) with the Cubs as if he's 31 the entire year and saying that Gonzalez is "only" 29 when he'd turn 30 a month (May) into what would be his first season? We're talking about two guys here who will be 30 their first season with the Cubs if the Cubs sign them.

 

A-Gon is a better player overall, but I don't think there's a enough difference in the offensive output and the age to justify passing on a hitter as good as and as consistent as Dunn for someone who isn't significantly younger and is going to cost a lot more.

Edited August 25, 2010 by Sammy Sofa

[jersey cubs fan]

Why exactly are some people so sure the Cubs are going to get Adrian Gonzalez next offseason?

 

I think there's a good chance he'll be available, not that the Cubs necessarily will get him. That said, the free agent market will be much, much stronger (as it stands now) in 2012 than this offseason. Thus, there's far more alternatives for teams to spend on that year than there are this year. With a more shallow pool, you're looking at more of a likelihood that teams get desperate to make a splash and try too heavily for Dunn, whereas teams might start shying away more quickly from Gonzalez when there are numerous other upgrade opportunities available on the market.

 

Well then the Cubs can go out and spend on other options in 2012 if they have 1B settled. Also, free agency always looks better the further out you go, because guys haven't signed their extensions yet.

[CubColtPacer]

Hold on, the age point between Dunn and Gonzalez is ridiculous. Between when either would theoretically sign with the Cubs when first available you're looking at a difference of less than a year. Why do people keep pointing out that Dunn will be 31 at the end of his first season (November) with the Cubs as if he's 31 the entire year and saying that Gonzalez is "only" 29 when he'd turn 30 a month (May) into what would be his first season? We're talking about two guys here who will be 30 their first season with the Cubs if the Cubs sign them.

 

Dunn turns 31 three months from now in November 2010.

[dew1679666265]

Hold on, the age point between Dunn and Gonzalez is ridiculous. Between when either would theoretically sign with the Cubs when first available you're looking at a difference of less than a year in age. Why do people keep pointing out that Dunn will be 31 at the end of his first season (November) with the Cubs as if he's 31 the entire year and saying that Gonzalez is "only" 29 when he'd turn 30 a month (May) into what would be his first season? We're talking about two guys here who will be 30 their first season with the Cubs if the Cubs sign them.

 

A-Gon is a better player overall, but I don't think there's a enough difference in the offensive output and the age to justify passing on a hitter as good as and as consistent as Dunn for someone who isn't significantly younger and is going to cost a lot more.

 

Dunn will turn 31 this November (born 11/9/1979). The age isn't a huge difference, as I said, but it's a plus for Gonzalez nonetheless.

 

And I still think the fact that we're very unlikely to be highly competitive next year for the first year of Dunn's contract, whereas we should be able to field a much more competitive team starting in 2012 and going forward.

[dew1679666265]

Why exactly are some people so sure the Cubs are going to get Adrian Gonzalez next offseason?

 

I think there's a good chance he'll be available, not that the Cubs necessarily will get him. That said, the free agent market will be much, much stronger (as it stands now) in 2012 than this offseason. Thus, there's far more alternatives for teams to spend on that year than there are this year. With a more shallow pool, you're looking at more of a likelihood that teams get desperate to make a splash and try too heavily for Dunn, whereas teams might start shying away more quickly from Gonzalez when there are numerous other upgrade opportunities available on the market.

 

Well then the Cubs can go out and spend on other options in 2012 if they have 1B settled. Also, free agency always looks better the further out you go, because guys haven't signed their extensions yet.

 

That's why I said "as it stands now." My biggest concern with Dunn is that he won't age well. If he does start to really decline by 2011-2012, then first base won't be settled all that well going into 2012. We won't be looking to fill it, but we very well may be getting underproduction from that spot if Dunn declines. Gonzalez at 30 in 2012 is far less likely to decline than Dunn at 32 in 2012.

[jersey cubs fan]

Why is it assumed Dunn won't age well? Power hitter with patience doesn't scream to me guy can't last. It's not like he relies on his legs or supreme atheticism.

[Sammy Sofa]

Hold on, the age point between Dunn and Gonzalez is ridiculous. Between when either would theoretically sign with the Cubs when first available you're looking at a difference of less than a year in age. Why do people keep pointing out that Dunn will be 31 at the end of his first season (November) with the Cubs as if he's 31 the entire year and saying that Gonzalez is "only" 29 when he'd turn 30 a month (May) into what would be his first season? We're talking about two guys here who will be 30 their first season with the Cubs if the Cubs sign them.

 

A-Gon is a better player overall, but I don't think there's a enough difference in the offensive output and the age to justify passing on a hitter as good as and as consistent as Dunn for someone who isn't significantly younger and is going to cost a lot more.

 

Dunn will turn 31 this November (born 11/9/1979). The age isn't a huge difference, as I said, but it's a plus for Gonzalez nonetheless.

 

And I still think the fact that we're very unlikely to be highly competitive next year for the first year of Dunn's contract, whereas we should be able to field a much more competitive team starting in 2012 and going forward.

 

Whoops, I stink at math.

 

Still I stand by the idea that a year and half isn't enough to justify the money and years that A-Gon is going to almost certainly command over Dunn. I don't know where the idea is coming from that Dunn's type of offense won't "age well."

[dew1679666265]

Why is it assumed Dunn won't age well? Power hitter with patience doesn't scream to me guy can't last. It's not like he relies on his legs or supreme atheticism.

 

I would actually like a better explanation of it myself. I've heard a number of times that he isn't the type of hitter who ages well, but I don't know specifically why. The patience makes me think he would, but on the other hand, the tendency to either slug or K otherwise makes me think he wouldn't. His BB% has dropped this year, however, from 18.7 in 2008 to 17.4 in 2009 to 11.4 this year. His K% is also the highest it's been in his career (by a little bit) at 35.3%.

 

One big part, I think, is Dunn has nothing to fall back on if his offense falters a bit. He's still mediocre defensively at first, whereas Gonzalez can still provide solid value with the glove if his bat dips a bit later in the contract.

[jersey cubs fan]

One big part, I think, is Dunn has nothing to fall back on if his offense falters a bit. He's still mediocre defensively at first, whereas Gonzalez can still provide solid value with the glove if his bat dips a bit later in the contract.

 

No he can't. If a 1B isn't hitting he's not providing value.

[Sammy Sofa]

With the ways the Cubs are likely to be constructed based on the 1B they get after either this season or the next, they are fucked regardless who that 1B is if his offense falters, better defense or not.

[dew1679666265]

Whoops, I stink at math.

 

As do I. I had Gonzalez being 29 when he signs in 2012 the first time I added it up and then had to figure up Dunn's age 2-3 times to make sure I was right.

 

Still I stand by the idea that a year and half isn't enough to justify the money and years that A-Gon is going to almost certainly command over Dunn. I don't know where the idea is coming from that Dunn's type of offense won't "age well."

 

The age alone isn't enough, I agree. However, the age + Dunn very possibly getting close to his demands because of a really weak FA market + double the WAR + Gonzalez signing in a year we'll likely be competitive is enough for me to consider holding out for him.

 

I'd hope the Cubs get involved in the Dunn bidding, however, and see if they can get him for some sort of deal like the Nationals got. I just don't think that's very likely.

[dew1679666265]

One big part, I think, is Dunn has nothing to fall back on if his offense falters a bit. He's still mediocre defensively at first, whereas Gonzalez can still provide solid value with the glove if his bat dips a bit later in the contract.

 

No he can't. If a 1B isn't hitting he's not providing value.

 

Defense matters at first base, just not nearly as much as most other positions.

[jersey cubs fan]

One big part, I think, is Dunn has nothing to fall back on if his offense falters a bit. He's still mediocre defensively at first, whereas Gonzalez can still provide solid value with the glove if his bat dips a bit later in the contract.

 

No he can't. If a 1B isn't hitting he's not providing value.

 

Defense matters at first base, just not nearly as much as most other positions.

 

Doesn't make a lick of a difference when trying to claim a 1B that can't hit can provide value. If the Cubs have a high priced 1B that can't hit, it's gonna suck regardless of his glove.

[dew1679666265]

With the ways the Cubs are likely to be constructed based on the 1B they get after either this season or the next, they are [expletive] regardless who that 1B is if his offense falters, better defense or not.

 

Wouldn't it make sense, then, to pursue the guy who's going to be the most productive once we get competitive? Dunn will be 32 in 2012, which is probably the next time we'll be competitive, while Gonzalez will be 30 that year. We might get 1-2 seasons of production from Dunn once we get competitive again, compared to 3-4 out of Gonzalez.

[dew1679666265]

One big part, I think, is Dunn has nothing to fall back on if his offense falters a bit. He's still mediocre defensively at first, whereas Gonzalez can still provide solid value with the glove if his bat dips a bit later in the contract.

 

No he can't. If a 1B isn't hitting he's not providing value.

 

Defense matters at first base, just not nearly as much as most other positions.

 

Doesn't make a lick of a difference when trying to claim a 1B that can't hit can provide value. If the Cubs have a high priced 1B that can't hit, it's gonna suck regardless of his glove.

 

I didn't say "can't hit," I said if the bat falters a bit. If both hitters drop from .900 OPS guys to .820-.850 OPS guys, Gonzalez is more valuable because he's much better defensively than Dunn. We'd also get at least a year or two more high end production out of Gonzalez than Dunn.

[jersey cubs fan]

I didn't say "can't hit," I said if the bat falters a bit. If both hitters drop from .900 OPS guys to .820-.850 OPS guys, Gonzalez is more valuable because he's much better defensively than Dunn. We'd also get at least a year or two more high end production out of Gonzalez than Dunn.

 

That is your assumption. Your are also going to spend more and for longer term, and presumably be further removed from the recession, with more teams able to spend more money. Ideally I'd take Gonzalez, I just don't see any logic in passing on a guy who fits a need now and has every indication in being ready to sign with the Cubs to wait for a guy who may never even become a free agent a year later and with no indication that the Cubs are high on his list.

[soapy]

Part of my issue with holding out for Gonzalez (aside from the idea that I don't think they're likely to be able to get him) is the salary difference and the fact that I think the Cubs can be competitive next season. If you're talking about an $8 million difference in salary between Dunn and Gonzalez, that's a lot of cheese that can help toward acquiring a front-line starter ala Cliff Lee. Add Dunn and Lee to this team (with a few other minor moves) and I think they have a good chance to be very much in the race next year.

[rawaction]

Dunn liking the Cubs seems like a typical case of "Hey, I'm going to be a free agent, I want a lot of money. The Cubs are a team that spends a lot of money." I'm sure if asked about the Yankees, Red Sox, or Mets; Dunn would like them too.

[jersey cubs fan]

Dunn liking the Cubs seems like a typical case of "Hey, I'm going to be a free agent, I want a lot of money. The Cubs are a team that spends a lot of money." I'm sure if asked about the Yankees, Red Sox, or Mets; Dunn would like them too.

 

But it's at least more than west coast guy on west coast team that is face of franchise who might be a free agent 15 months from now.