Dunn to the White Sox (p. 12)

[A New Era]

Looks like a hell of a lineup to me.

It would look a lot better with Fukudome in there instead of Colvin.

 

For the first couple of months of the season atleast.

[SouthSideRyan]

Looks like a hell of a lineup to me.

It would look a lot better with Fukudome in there instead of Colvin.

 

For the first couple of months of the season atleast.

 

Yeah Kosuke's been [expletive] terrible this month.

[SouthSideRyan]

Looks like a hell of a lineup to me.

It would look a lot better with Fukudome in there instead of Colvin.

 

For the first couple of months of the season atleast.

 

Yeah Kosuke's been [expletive] terrible this month.

 

Whoops, misspelled Colvin.

[Sammy Sofa]

Looks like a hell of a lineup to me.

It would look a lot better with Fukudome in there instead of Colvin.

 

For the first couple of months of the season atleast.

 

Holy hell, people are still flogging this?

[javy knows my name]

Looks like a hell of a lineup to me.

It would look a lot better with Fukudome in there instead of Colvin.

 

For the first couple of months of the season atleast.

FAIL

[shnsajax]

Looks like the Nats will have to spend some money on pitching now next season or just decide to throw it in the tank now with Strasburg likely out for 2011. Should help on Dunn not being resigned.

[A New Era]

Looks like a hell of a lineup to me.

It would look a lot better with Fukudome in there instead of Colvin.

 

For the first couple of months of the season atleast.

FAIL

 

I was being sarcastic, lol.

[Schwarber Fan]

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/2169/byrd-wants-cubs-to-go-after-dunn

 

Git R Dunn!

[Z38Cubs]

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/2169/byrd-wants-cubs-to-go-after-dunn

 

Git R Dunn!

 

The best part about that was reading the comments section. I learned that Marlon Byrd is by far our best player solely because of the effort he gives, I learned that Andres Blanco should be our starting 2nd baseman, and that Adam Dunn will cost the Cubs more runs at 1st BASE! than he will drive in with his bat. Fascinating stuff there.

[Tyrant]

... and that Adam Dunn will cost the Cubs more runs at 1st BASE! than he will drive in with his bat.

 

There's been some evidence to support this in the past, depending on whichever fielding metric you choose to believe in.

[Iceblink]

I've always been a little curious about the strong affection for Dunn here. I'd like to have him (for the right price), but I don't think he's a real lineup changer, and he's probably a year or so from where he should start declining.

 

His career high is 106 RBI - been in the top 10 in the NL three times (8th is his best), his OPS is never close to dominant and figures to hover around .900, at best. His slugging % has been in the top 10 in the NL once in his career. His OBP is well down this year.

 

The only things he's been consistently strong at is drawing walks and hitting homers. Even with that, he's never scored many runs. His walks are down, and his homers figure to start declining in the next year or two. He'll be below average and declining at first base.

 

So...if you give him a 5 year deal, I'd guess we'd look at a guy who'd be around 30-40 homers the next couple of years, then 25-35 after that. Maybe you get 100 RBI out of him once or twice. The walks should further decrease as his power decreases, so he's probably going to be a mid .800's OPS guy in a couple years.

 

He'll be 31 in November. I remember reading a stat that there are zero guys 36 or older with an OPS above .800 this season. The career curves for guys in their 30's are much different now than they used to be.

 

I know there's not a lot else out there at first base, but if we put out a 5 or 6 year, $10-15M deal, I think we'd get fair value for maybe the first two years.

[Backtobanks]

I've always been a little curious about the strong affection for Dunn here. I'd like to have him (for the right price), but I don't think he's a real lineup changer, and he's probably a year or so from where he should start declining.

 

His career high is 106 RBI - been in the top 10 in the NL three times (8th is his best), his OPS is never close to dominant and figures to hover around .900, at best. His slugging % has been in the top 10 in the NL once in his career. His OBP is well down this year.

 

The only things he's been consistently strong at is drawing walks and hitting homers. Even with that, he's never scored many runs. His walks are down, and his homers figure to start declining in the next year or two. He'll be below average and declining at first base.

 

So...if you give him a 5 year deal, I'd guess we'd look at a guy who'd be around 30-40 homers the next couple of years, then 25-35 after that. Maybe you get 100 RBI out of him once or twice. The walks should further decrease as his power decreases, so he's probably going to be a mid .800's OPS guy in a couple years.

 

He'll be 31 in November. I remember reading a stat that there are zero guys 36 or older with an OPS above .800 this season. The career curves for guys in their 30's are much different now than they used to be.

 

I know there's not a lot else out there at first base, but if we put out a 5 or 6 year, $10-15M deal, I think we'd get fair value for maybe the first two years.

 

Nobody is talking a 5 or 6 year deal. Everything I've seen suggests 3 or 4 years at $10-$12 per year.

[Northside Blues]

I don't think Dunn's skill set is valued enough by anyone to get a five year deal. He's probably going to get a long hard look at a 3 year deal, maybe a four year deal. Either way he should be relatively fine the first three years after this, he might start to slide in the fourth (or a potential fifth) but if you're signing him to a four year deal, that's just a price you have to pay (in addition to his salary) for his production in years one through three.

 

Part of the Adam Dunn allure here is that he's the Anti-Cub. For years the lack of walks by the team and several managers and GM's not appreciating them has become the Cub m.o. Years of this has driven this board to appreciate it and single out Adam Dunn as the opposite of that, hence the falling in love. Not to mention we became relatively close to acquiring him before (rumored deal was nixed on a Rich Hill for Dunn swap iirc).

 

While the appeal for him here may overrate him to a certain extent. You're painting a picture that's way to bleak. He's not a great player overall but he certainly is a difference maker on the offensive side of the ball. He's been .300 TAV hitter his entire career, half the time being in the .310 range. For comparison, Alex Rodriguez's career TAV is .310 or so. He's a top ten or so hitter in the National League. Sure he has slipped a bit walks wise this year, but he's hitting for more power and it has balanced out to give him another .310 TAV year. You can look at whatever statistic you want, but Adam Dunn is without a doubt one of the top 20 or so offensive players in baseball.

 

He, however, is a brick in the field and that takes away some of his offensive value. There's no reason to suggest that he will decline abruptly, he will probably plateau at this level for two or three more years.

[Sammy Sofa]

His runs and RBI totals haven't been mind-blowing because most of the teams he's been on have ranged from average to horrible. Those are also some of the worst factors that you can judge a hitter by.

[Northside Blues]

That's not entirely accurate. He's been on some bad teams, no doubt. However in his time with the Reds they were in the top half in runs, leading runs one year. Really the reason that he doesn't have a high RBI total is because he doesn't mind taking walks. If you take a lot of walks it's going to hurt your RBI total, since you're walking some instead of driving in runs (and making outs in the process). It's the anti-Andre Dawson effect. Similarly, if you don't walk a lot you're going to have inflated RBI totals. His run total isn't very low, all things considered. He's actually fairly good there, but he has lost a bit because he's not the best base runner in the world (he isn't terrible either). Either way for a hitter who has spent the majority of his career in the four or five hole, he's got very good run totals.

[Iceblink]

His runs and RBI totals haven't been mind-blowing because most of the teams he's been on have ranged from average to horrible. Those are also some of the worst factors that you can judge a hitter by.

 

When you put up 40+ homers but barely top 100 rbi, and put up 100+ BB (in the same season as the 40 homers) but barely top 100 runs, that's not a great ratio. I think they're relevant for judging him as an offensive player. And like Northside pointed out, he was on some pretty good offensive teams in Cincy.

[Sammy Sofa]

Why would you hold the lack of runs against him because he had so many walks?

 

And if you're trying to spin the relative lack of RBI as some kind of knock against him, it should be a simple matter to demonstrate that he's not a good hitter with RISP or the various situations with runners on base.

[XZero771679666304]

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/2169/byrd-wants-cubs-to-go-after-dunn

 

Git R Dunn!

 

The best part about that was reading the comments section. I learned that Marlon Byrd is by far our best player solely because of the effort he gives, I learned that Andres Blanco should be our starting 2nd baseman, and that Adam Dunn will cost the Cubs more runs at 1st BASE! than he will drive in with his bat. Fascinating stuff there.

 

Stuff like that and the Cubs Facebook page really give you a sobering insight into the bulk of fanbase. Not just Cubs fans, but fans in general.

[XZero771679666304]

His runs and RBI totals haven't been mind-blowing because most of the teams he's been on have ranged from average to horrible. Those are also some of the worst factors that you can judge a hitter by.

 

When you put up 40+ homers but barely top 100 rbi, and put up 100+ BB (in the same season as the 40 homers) but barely top 100 runs, that's not a great ratio. I think they're relevant for judging him as an offensive player. And like Northside pointed out, he was on some pretty good offensive teams in Cincy.

 

Holding his lack of runs against him is stupid. You want a guy to get on base. Once he does, he really doesn't have much control, unless they're a base stealer or get caught attempting SB a lot or are an abysmal yet over agressive baserunner.

 

RBI are also poor. Remember Lee in 2005? 99 XBH and only 107 RBI, does that reflect badly on him? Runs and RBI are highly contextual, team dependent stats, and are piss poor ways to evaluate a player, right up there with wins.

[A New Era]

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/2169/byrd-wants-cubs-to-go-after-dunn

 

Git R Dunn!

 

The best part about that was reading the comments section. I learned that Marlon Byrd is by far our best player solely because of the effort he gives, I learned that Andres Blanco should be our starting 2nd baseman, and that Adam Dunn will cost the Cubs more runs at 1st BASE! than he will drive in with his bat. Fascinating stuff there.

 

Stuff like that and the Cubs Facebook page really give you a sobering insight into the bulk of fanbase. Not just Cubs fans, but fans in general.

 

What's that saying, something like the dumbest people tend to be the most vocal? I wouldn't judge based on all the stupid comments. I just think the smart ones tend to not waste their time posting on facebook.

[dew1679666265]

his OPS is never close to dominant and figures to hover around .900, at best.

 

In 6 of his 10 seasons (including this year), he's had an OPS better than .900. That includes a .948, .956 and .940 OPS. Saying .900 at best is underestimating how good he's been in the past.

[XZero771679666304]

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/2169/byrd-wants-cubs-to-go-after-dunn

 

Git R Dunn!

 

The best part about that was reading the comments section. I learned that Marlon Byrd is by far our best player solely because of the effort he gives, I learned that Andres Blanco should be our starting 2nd baseman, and that Adam Dunn will cost the Cubs more runs at 1st BASE! than he will drive in with his bat. Fascinating stuff there.

 

Stuff like that and the Cubs Facebook page really give you a sobering insight into the bulk of fanbase. Not just Cubs fans, but fans in general.

 

What's that saying, something like the dumbest people tend to be the most vocal? I wouldn't judge based on all the stupid comments. I just think the smart ones tend to not waste their time posting on facebook.

 

It's not just Facebook. People at the ballpark, fans I run into casually whose eyes glaze over when you start talking numbers, people who call into sports talk radio, etc., etc.

 

I think there are relatively few people who take enough interest to dig below the surface and have intelligent discussion, and they congregate in places like this. I think most sports fans are either casual or ignorant. IMO.

[dew1679666265]

I think there are relatively few people who take enough interest to dig below the surface and have intelligent discussion, and they congregate in places like this. I think most sports fans are either casual or ignorant. IMO.

 

From what I've seen (anecdotal, yes), the large bulk of fans tend to be casual. They root for the team, but don't follow it intensely. They simply either don't care enough to dig into the deeper stats (math isn't exactly a well-loved combo with hanging out watching a game for most people) or don't have the time.

 

So they go largely off reputation, what they hear and which players seem to be trying hard at the times they watch. I don't think it's as much intentionally avoiding stats as it is not feeling that sports is an important enough area to focus large amounts of time pouring over numbers.

[Iceblink]

his OPS is never close to dominant and figures to hover around .900, at best.

 

In 6 of his 10 seasons (including this year), he's had an OPS better than .900. That includes a .948, .956 and .940 OPS. Saying .900 at best is underestimating how good he's been in the past.

 

In his last 7 seasons, he's gone:

.855

.940

.898

.901

.889

.928

.913

 

Other than the .940 5 seasons ago, and the .928 last year, he's been a .900 guy. Given that his walks are down and his power should start to decline within a season or so, expecting him to routinely eclipse .900 seems strongly optimistic.

[MSG T]

his OPS is never close to dominant and figures to hover around .900, at best.

 

In 6 of his 10 seasons (including this year), he's had an OPS better than .900. That includes a .948, .956 and .940 OPS. Saying .900 at best is underestimating how good he's been in the past.

 

In his last 7 seasons, he's gone:

.855

.940

.898

.901

.889

.928

.913

 

Other than the .940 5 seasons ago, and the .928 last year, he's been a .900 guy. Given that his walks are down and his power should start to decline within a season or so, expecting him to routinely eclipse .900 seems strongly optimistic.

 

In only 2 of the last 6, using the numbers you posted, has he failed to reach .900 OPS. Once by .002 and once by .011. However, he has eclipsed it by .040, .001, .028 and .013. Looks to me that he has been remarkably consistent and should be a good bet to exceed .900 OPS again in the future.

 

It's not like we're talking about signing him through his age 39 season. If they signed him for 4 years he'd be 35 when the contract is over. Would he be performing as well at 35 as he is now? That's doubtful. Would he still be putting up number well above average for a 1B? I'd be willing to say yes. And considering how much less he would cost than Fielder and Gonzalez, what's the problem?