Dunn to the White Sox (p. 12)

[JoshiQ]

pena is pretty much the poster child for players who won't age gracefully. he has old player skills out the wazoo and also peaked late, and players who peak later than normal tend to turn bad pretty quickly.

 

My pipe dream is still Gordon, but as with most pipe dreams, that isn't happening.

 

Alex Gordon, right? 'cause I watch Gordon play a lot, living in KC, and I just don't see it. The Royals are my secondary favorite team, and I really want Gordon to come on and be what he was projected to be, but I don't think it's going to happen.

 

In nearly 1500 ABs he has an OPS+ of 95 and is turning 27 this year. Sure, the Royals totally screwed with him as they give him a shot for 100 AB's, send him to the minors, call him back up, give him 100 ABs, send him back down....but he still has yet to show hardly anything past AAA. His AAA numbers are monsters, and he really is a fun guy to cheer for on a secondary team. But do I want him manning 1B for the Cubs for the next few years? Hell no.

[Magnetic Curses]

i'm disappointed. but after the seasons the cubs have had over the past couple of years, i'm not THAT disappointed. apathetic, accepting, resigned.

[TruffleShuffle]

Let me put it this way; I will guarantee that Dunn outproduces the collective hot mess that the Cubs trot out at 1st base over the next 4 years. If he doesn't then ban me.

 

I hope I end up banned. But I know I won't.

 

that's not really a fair way of looking at it. say the cubs put, i dunno, lahair at 1B and he produces 1 win a year for the league minimum. then the $13M+ that they saved by not signing dunn is spent on, say, two pitchers who produce 3 WAR. they've done better than if they had signed dunn.

 

the objective is to maximize the production per dollar, not get as much production out of one position as possible regardless of cost.

[Sammy Sofa]

Sure it's fair. The Cubs have a hole at 1B, in the lineup, and Dunn was one of the best choices out there to fill it. Now let's see if the Cubs can scrape together production from that position and in the lineup (let's assume he would have hit 3rd or 4th; for clarity's sake we'll look at where Aramis isn't next year between those two slots) that outdoes Dunn. Shouldn't be too hard, what with all of his red flags and age and big fat bank accounts and stuff and junk.

[dew1679666265]

Given the going contracts we've even just seen thus far the Dunn signing was not a bad deal for the White Sox.

 

And your expectations for the Cubs are fascinating. You seem convinced the team is going to be good in a few years, you're still bring up Fielder and Gonzalez like either has a realistic chance of ending up on this team given who else is going to be interested in them and now you're talking like Vitters is going to play 1st?

 

I've thrown out a whole lot of options - most have very real chances of being as good a value as Dunn - and yet you focus on two or three.

 

Both Carlos Pena and Nick Johnson have very recent histories of being as valuable or moreso than Dunn and will cost $40-50 million less than him and don't carry the same risk he does. Alex Gordon is significantly younger and has two seasons already under his belt of having more nearly as much value as Dunn. And he'll cost about $55 million less + prospects.

[dew1679666265]

I find it hard to believe that there are much better contracts being signed this year. In all of our fantasy worlds, sure, a player will get what he is due. Unless the player comes up through the system it's pretty hard to find a really good deal out there for a valuable player. And no, I don't mean overpay for guys like Soriano. That was horrendous. So will whatever Crawford signs for this year. The same can probably be said for Beltre. But Dunn has been extremely reliable and you know exactly what you're getting. For $14 million it's nearing the max to what I'd pay, but he was definitely the best choice as the market stands today.

 

Carlos Pena and Nick Johnson are both very likely to sign much, much cheaper deals - perhaps 1 year and less than $8-10 mil for both of them. For guys who very realistically could exceed Dunn's value, those would be very good deals.

[dew1679666265]

Alex Gordon, right? 'cause I watch Gordon play a lot, living in KC, and I just don't see it. The Royals are my secondary favorite team, and I really want Gordon to come on and be what he was projected to be, but I don't think it's going to happen.

 

In nearly 1500 ABs he has an OPS+ of 95 and is turning 27 this year. Sure, the Royals totally screwed with him as they give him a shot for 100 AB's, send him to the minors, call him back up, give him 100 ABs, send him back down....but he still has yet to show hardly anything past AAA. His AAA numbers are monsters, and he really is a fun guy to cheer for on a secondary team. But do I want him manning 1B for the Cubs for the next few years? Hell no.

 

It's definitely not going to happen getting a couple hundred PAs a year and then being shipped back to the minors. Gordon got regular playing time for two seasons - his first full year he posted a .317 wOBA and in his second year he posted a .344 wOBA. Since then, he's gotten sporadic at best playing time and still had a .321 wOBA in 2009. His IsoP has been 70-100 points every year in the majors. All he needs is consistent playing time and we could likely have him for Colvin+a little considering Dayton Moore's history.

 

He was also a 2.1 and 2.3 WAR player his only full years - just two wins worse than Dunn's best year.

[imb]

I'm surprised the Sox got him. It's an okay signing, considering Dunn is below average defensively and strikes out way too much. But if he hits like he has for the past two seasons, it will be worthwhile. Especially since Kotsay was penciled in as the DH last year. God, what a disaster that was.

 

Now resign Konerko and AJ and we'll call it an offseason.

 

AJ's on his way North of the Border it seems...

 

I know this is from thursday, but i just read it and thought "north of the border" said "northside" and i almost jumped out my window

[jersey cubs fan]

I find it hard to believe that there are much better contracts being signed this year. In all of our fantasy worlds, sure, a player will get what he is due. Unless the player comes up through the system it's pretty hard to find a really good deal out there for a valuable player. And no, I don't mean overpay for guys like Soriano. That was horrendous. So will whatever Crawford signs for this year. The same can probably be said for Beltre. But Dunn has been extremely reliable and you know exactly what you're getting. For $14 million it's nearing the max to what I'd pay, but he was definitely the best choice as the market stands today.

 

Carlos Pena and Nick Johnson are both very likely to sign much, much cheaper deals - perhaps 1 year and less than $8-10 mil for both of them. For guys who very realistically could exceed Dunn's value, those would be very good deals.

You are funny.

[dew1679666265]

I find it hard to believe that there are much better contracts being signed this year. In all of our fantasy worlds, sure, a player will get what he is due. Unless the player comes up through the system it's pretty hard to find a really good deal out there for a valuable player. And no, I don't mean overpay for guys like Soriano. That was horrendous. So will whatever Crawford signs for this year. The same can probably be said for Beltre. But Dunn has been extremely reliable and you know exactly what you're getting. For $14 million it's nearing the max to what I'd pay, but he was definitely the best choice as the market stands today.

 

Carlos Pena and Nick Johnson are both very likely to sign much, much cheaper deals - perhaps 1 year and less than $8-10 mil for both of them. For guys who very realistically could exceed Dunn's value, those would be very good deals.

You are funny.

 

Yeah, going by those silly little statistics is pretty funny, isn't it. I should just go by preconceived notions and reputation I guess.

[dew1679666265]

Some or most of these have been mentioned previously, but I thought I'd throw them out again:

 

In 2010, Dunn had his:

 

lowest HR total since 2003

lowest BB rate in his career

highest K rate in his career

highest career BABIP in his career

lowest OBP since 2003

lowest IsoD in his career

lowest wOBA since 2006

[tfarks]

Some or most of these have been mentioned previously, but I thought I'd throw them out again:

 

In 2010, Dunn had his:

 

lowest HR total since 2003

lowest BB rate in his career

highest K rate in his career

highest career BABIP in his career

lowest OBP since 2003

lowest IsoD in his career

lowest wOBA since 2006

 

If Dunn hit 38 HR's in 09' and 38 in 10' I don't understand the 1st point.

 

It seems that saying his last 2 years have produced his lowest HR totals since 2003 would be more accurate.

[UMFan83]

It's also misleading to say that when he's hit between 38-40 HRs every year between 2005-2010.

[jersey cubs fan]

I find it hard to believe that there are much better contracts being signed this year. In all of our fantasy worlds, sure, a player will get what he is due. Unless the player comes up through the system it's pretty hard to find a really good deal out there for a valuable player. And no, I don't mean overpay for guys like Soriano. That was horrendous. So will whatever Crawford signs for this year. The same can probably be said for Beltre. But Dunn has been extremely reliable and you know exactly what you're getting. For $14 million it's nearing the max to what I'd pay, but he was definitely the best choice as the market stands today.

 

Carlos Pena and Nick Johnson are both very likely to sign much, much cheaper deals - perhaps 1 year and less than $8-10 mil for both of them. For guys who very realistically could exceed Dunn's value, those would be very good deals.

You are funny.

 

Yeah, going by those silly little statistics is pretty funny, isn't it. I should just go by

preconceived notions and reputation I guess.

 

8-10 for those guys is a horrible idea. And you whine about Dunn's consistency.

 

Seriously you make no sense.

[dew1679666265]

8-10 for those guys is a horrible idea. And you whine about Dunn's consistency.

 

Seriously you make no sense.

 

This is twice you've been wrong about what I said. Less than $8-10 million, so something like $6-7 mil for one year. It might take as much as 8-10 for Pena, but I doubt it.

 

And Dunn has been very consistent for the most part, I've never complained about his consistency. It's whether he can keep that up to a $14 million clip over 4 years that I'm concerned about. And there are signs that he won't.

[dew1679666265]

It's also misleading to say that when he's hit between 38-40 HRs every year between 2005-2010.

 

Both you and tfarks make good points, I withdraw the first point on my list. There's still a lot of stuff on there that should be concerning when you're overpaying for his peak production in the first place, though.

[TruffleShuffle]

He was also a 2.1 and 2.3 WAR player his only full years - just two wins worse than Dunn's best year.

 

that's playing 3B. he would not have been a 2.1 and 2.3 WAR player if he'd been playing 1B during those years. plus the evaluation of him as a +8.6 run 3B in 2007 is questionable, given the scouting reports and the fact that he has been moved off of 3B.

[dew1679666265]

He was also a 2.1 and 2.3 WAR player his only full years - just two wins worse than Dunn's best year.

 

that's playing 3B. he would not have been a 2.1 and 2.3 WAR player if he'd been playing 1B during those years. plus the evaluation of him as a +8.6 run 3B in 2007 is questionable, given the scouting reports and the fact that he has been moved off of 3B.

 

Didn't even think about the third base situation. Still, though, he was showing the ability to improve the only two full years he's had in the majors. Still room for improvement, but he's cheap and still pretty young.