lee traded to atlanta for 3 minor league pitchers

[fromthestretch]

I guess a lot depends on how well a combination of Castillo/Chirinos/Some new catcher could produce offensively. You also have to wonder if Soto could produce at a slightly higher level offensively than he is (or at least maintain this level of performance for a longer period of time) if you take away the physical toll of catching. If you look at this year's numbers, Soto's rate stats would be well above average for MLB 1B.

 

MLB 1B in 2010: .268/.352/.456/.809

Soto in 2010: .288/.401/.519/.920

 

Obviously, not quite the offensive advantage he holds as a catcher, but he wouldn't be killing this team offensively by playing first (provided that the Cubs can get some production out of the catcher position with different personnel there).

 

I'm not advocating moving Soto at this time, but I wouldn't completely dismiss it as an option. If the Cubs can get Dunn or another dominant bat to play first, then that's certainly the better route to take.

 

Out of curiosity, where did you get those numbers? I'm curious about what the rate stats for catchers look like.

 

Got them here:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&year=2010&lg=MLB#defp

 

The rate stats for catchers this season:

 

.249/.321/.382/.703

 

I completely agree that his offensive abilities have a lot more value as a C than as a 1B. But if he can post a .900+ OPS, he wouldn't kill the Cubs at 1B.

[davell]

I'm on board for going stopgap type at 1B, but only IF we think AGON will wind up available at some point. If he's not, then Dunn at 4-60 isn't a great value, but it does make us quite a bit better anyway. And if we dream and can get him AND Greinke(2-27 with issues that could rear up in Chicago quite easily) somehow, maybe we're back to being borderline contenders possibly......

[Magnetic Curses]

so......soriano WOULD be above replacement level for a first baseman this season. but somebody told me he wouldn't.

[KingCubsFan]

um, i don't think anyone was talking about this year, but okay, sure.

Why do they have to wait until the end of the year to start making a position switch?

 

are you saying that if they were moving soriano to first, they #1. wouldn't call up a position player to take lee's spot and just go with 24 and #2. put soriano at first immediately?

No. But if they want to move someone to first base, it would be smart to start having them take grounders and eventually have them play a few games at first before the season ends. Looks like they're doing that with Colvin.

[Magnetic Curses]

um, i don't think anyone was talking about this year, but okay, sure.

Why do they have to wait until the end of the year to start making a position switch?

 

are you saying that if they were moving soriano to first, they #1. wouldn't call up a position player to take lee's spot and just go with 24 and #2. put soriano at first immediately?

No. But if they want to move someone to first base, it would be smart to start having them take grounders and eventually have them play a few games at first before the season ends. Looks like they're doing that with Colvin.

 

but the fact remains that what i was talking about was the possibility of soriano playing first next year and that even if they called up hoffpauir, it doesn't mean they don't have plans to go with soriano.

[SpongeWorthy]

You're counting on a lot of things to go right if you expect to compete with this current staff.

 

I don't know if you've noticed, but outside of Dempster (who's more like a 2 or 3 and not an ace), we've been pretty bad. Silva's fallen back to earth and is average overall. Z is a headcase. Can't count on Gorzo pitching like we did this year. Wells has been below-average.

 

Wells: ERA 4.44 FIP 3.80 xFIP 3.96/ 6.99 K/9, 2.8 BB/9/ 2.7 WAR

He's really not been below average. FIP and xFIP have him well above average.

 

Z has also been pretty underrated this year. He's not been worth his contract by any stretch, but his xFIP is better than it was in 2007, his K/9 is higher than it's been since 2006 and his BABIP is higher than it's been in his entire career. He's pitched ok this year.

 

Gorzo is a young pitcher who's been decent this year and has strong minor league numbers. There's really no reason to think he can't be at least decent next year, if not better.

 

As a team, the Cubs' pitchers are 11th in the majors in WAR. That's well above average and close to very good. The Cubs' starters are 12th in the majors in xFIP. It's not going to be a dominant staff, but it'll be good enough next year to not shell out $18+ mil over 4 years for a 32 year old Cliff Lee.

 

Isn't Cliff Lee the kind of pitcher that seems like he would age pretty gracefully?

 

And 11th in WAR is well above average? It's certainly above average but where does it rank among contenders? Isn't that the baseline scenario?

[Outshined_One]

Got them here:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&year=2010&lg=MLB#defp

 

The rate stats for catchers this season:

 

.249/.321/.382/.703

 

I completely agree that his offensive abilities have a lot more value as a C than as a 1B. But if he can post a .900+ OPS, he wouldn't kill the Cubs at 1B.

 

Thanks.

 

I think Castillo/Chirinos/Clevenger/et al. could put up numbers at or slightly above that range for catcher...but, wow would that be painful for the offense.

[fromthestretch]

Got them here:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&year=2010&lg=MLB#defp

 

The rate stats for catchers this season:

 

.249/.321/.382/.703

 

I completely agree that his offensive abilities have a lot more value as a C than as a 1B. But if he can post a .900+ OPS, he wouldn't kill the Cubs at 1B.

 

Thanks.

 

I think Castillo/Chirinos/Clevenger/et al. could put up numbers at or slightly above that range for catcher...but, wow would that be painful for the offense.

 

True. If Soto is moved to first, then you have to make up for the lost offense at catcher. I'm really curious to see what Chirinos can do. I realize he's old for a prospect, but his numbers this season (and even last year) have been very, very impressive.

[dew1679666265]

Isn't Cliff Lee the kind of pitcher that seems like he would age pretty gracefully?

 

I've heard he is, but it's still a gamble for a cash-strapped team that already has Z and Soriano on the books long term, a good number of high-ceiling prospects almost ready and four average to above average to good starters already. Keep in mind, this is only the third great season for Lee, before that he was posting what Z's done this year or worse.

 

Also interesting:

 

Lee xFIPs the past three years: 3.57, 3.69, 3.22

Demp xFIPs the past three years: 3.74, 3.81, 3.98

 

Lee has been better, and much moreso this year. But is it significant enough to shell out a 4/72 or more deal?

 

And 11th in WAR is well above average? It's certainly above average but where does it rank among contenders? Isn't that the baseline scenario?

 

Simply above average is probably more accurate. Out of contenders, they're ahead of the Phillies, Padres, Rays, Cardinals, Yankees and Reds in WAR. They're behind the Braves, Twins, Giants, White Sox, Red Sox and Rangers. So perfectly in the middle of contenders in pitching WAR. Fangraphs won't let me separate rotation from relievers, however, so I don't know if that'd increase their standing around the league.

 

For rotation xFIP, the Cubs are behind the Cardinals, Phillies, Twins, Braves and Padres. They're ahead of the Rays, White Sox, Red Sox, Giants, Yankees, Rangers and Reds among contenders. That puts them sixth among 13 teams (including the non-contending Cubs). That's slightly above average.

 

There's little reason to expect much, if any, of a dropoff next year, though.

[Tracer Bullet]

Not sure if this was posted, but here's an interesting article from Rosenthal into the mechanics of the deal.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Derrek-Lee-deal-comes-together-perfectly-081810

 

He's the kind of writer that should avoid the camera whenever possible. b/c I usually like his writing, but boy does he come off as a douche on camera

[NCCubFan]

The cubs just recalled hoffpauir so I'm guessing that colvin or soriano aren't considered options at 1st base by management.

No, they did not. They recalled Fuld. As mentioned earlier in this thread they could not recall Hoffpauir yet since it hasn't been 10 days since he was sent down.

[Banedon]

Not sure if this was posted, but here's an interesting article from Rosenthal into the mechanics of the deal.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Derrek-Lee-deal-comes-together-perfectly-081810

 

He's the kind of writer that should avoid the camera whenever possible. b/c I usually like his writing, but boy does he come off as a douche on camera

 

Radio too...he's sooooooo smug. Like "I can't believe I'm having to talk to you morons"...

[SouthSideRyan]

Not sure if this was posted, but here's an interesting article from Rosenthal into the mechanics of the deal.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Derrek-Lee-deal-comes-together-perfectly-081810

 

He's the kind of writer that should avoid the camera whenever possible. b/c I usually like his writing, but boy does he come off as a douche on camera

 

Radio too...he's sooooooo smug. Like "I can't believe I'm having to talk to you morons"...

 

He should make sure to credit @thekapman when he acts like that

[Rob]

so......soriano WOULD be above replacement level for a first baseman this season. but somebody told me he wouldn't.

 

I dont feel like calculating anything right now, but don't forget that most calculations of replacement level include average defense now.

[gflore34]

Little late in posting nevertheless, good bye and luck D. Lee - most especially to your daughter. However, I'll not be saddened by your departure, when you consider you're largely responsible for this current mess of a season. And you're going from the outhouse to the penthouse, it's hard to shed a tear.

[rocket]

not that i'm for the move necessarily, but isn't now a perfect time to at least experiment with the idea of soriano at 1st? it's not like we're competing for a playoff spot. if he's competent there, great. if not, then stick him back in left next season.

[jersey cubs fan]

not that i'm for the move necessarily, but isn't now a perfect time to at least experiment with the idea of soriano at 1st? it's not like we're competing for a playoff spot. if he's competent there, great. if not, then stick him back in left next season.

Then you are stuck with a mediocre 1B.

[rocket]

not that i'm for the move necessarily, but isn't now a perfect time to at least experiment with the idea of soriano at 1st? it's not like we're competing for a playoff spot. if he's competent there, great. if not, then stick him back in left next season.

Then you are stuck with a mediocre 1B.

 

well either scenario we're stuck with a mediocre player at a position where offense is important

[jersey cubs fan]

not that i'm for the move necessarily, but isn't now a perfect time to at least experiment with the idea of soriano at 1st? it's not like we're competing for a playoff spot. if he's competent there, great. if not, then stick him back in left next season.

Then you are stuck with a mediocre 1B.

 

well either scenario we're stuck with a mediocre player at a position where offense is important

 

But 1B requiers more, no?

[davell]

Soriano was asked if he would play 1B, and his response was "Never". Said something about he played 2B for 5 years and he didn't want to do that.......

 

Not that I want him at 1B, but this comment gets under my skin anyway. We're paying this guy TWICE what he's probably worth. To me, a guy should play where he's asked to, I guess is what I'm saying. That said, I hope the Cubs don't ask him anyway.

[Illini Iceman]

Soriano was asked if he would play 1B, and his response was "Never". Said something about he played 2B for 5 years and he didn't want to do that.......

 

Not that I want him at 1B, but this comment gets under my skin anyway. We're paying this guy TWICE what he's probably worth. To me, a guy should play where he's asked to, I guess is what I'm saying. That said, I hope the Cubs don't ask him anyway.

 

If true that quote doesn't really make sense. Didn't he get upset about being moved from 2B to LF?

[Backtobanks]

Soriano was asked if he would play 1B, and his response was "Never". Said something about he played 2B for 5 years and he didn't want to do that.......

 

Not that I want him at 1B, but this comment gets under my skin anyway. We're paying this guy TWICE what he's probably worth. To me, a guy should play where he's asked to, I guess is what I'm saying. That said, I hope the Cubs don't ask him anyway.

 

 

Link?

[flyseye]

Soriano was asked if he would play 1B, and his response was "Never". Said something about he played 2B for 5 years and he didn't want to do that.......

 

Not that I want him at 1B, but this comment gets under my skin anyway. We're paying this guy TWICE what he's probably worth. To me, a guy should play where he's asked to, I guess is what I'm saying. That said, I hope the Cubs don't ask him anyway.

 

 

Link?

 

Its from Cubs.com in the "Colvin taking grounders at first " article.

[SouthSideRyan]

That's disappointing.

[abuck1220]

i think it's encouraging that soriano realizes how stupid it would be for him to play 1b.