lee traded to atlanta for 3 minor league pitchers

[Magnetic Curses]

So the idea is that we don't have anyone to play at 1st, the 1B in FA are bad/overpriced, so we move Soriano from our surplus of OF to 1B because it's the easiest position. Doesn't that logic work with several alternatives besides Soriano? Like CCP said, Soriano to 1st is taking away everything he is good at defensively and magnifying everything he does poorly. So if his production is going to be around anyway, why not move Colvin to 1st? Why not sign Hawpe or Cuddyer and move them to 1B?

 

Because if you're not going out and getting someone with the production of a Dunn, then you're putting a ceiling on your offense anyway. Without transcendent performances elsewhere, you aren't going to have a top offense without above average 1B production. No, this is the time for the Cubs to try to make a play. If that's Dunn's consistency, then that's not terrible. If that's Gonzalez and his contract, then that's expensive but not regrettable. If that's gambling on a rebounding player breakout like with Barrett or Dempster, then that's the roll of the die you have to make. If that means giving Wainwright and Rasmus lupus so Pujols leaves in next year, then super. Because shuffling a mediocre 1B into that spot, be it Soriano, Colvin, Pena, Hawpe, etc. is just going to make it very difficult for the offense to be good.

 

Personally, I'm a big fan of trying to talk Dayton Moore out of Billy Butler, as I've said a few times. I'd also explore just how much it would take to convince Bill Smith that he'd be better served trading Morneau and his injury history and gaining the payroll flexibility + players in return.

 

i would love dunn, but if it's a guy like dunn or a guy like cliff lee, i pick pitching. granted i have no idea why lee would want to land in chicago.

 

i DO feel like colvin's earned a shot at starting everyday, and given the payroll restrictions of this team, he could provide real value in the outfield, although it would be far more valuable if he could play center. for the sake of argument i will equate dewitt as a cubs product as he's young, cheap and under team control, and having 4 guys in the lineup everyday that are cubs products provides a lot more flexibility in other areas, granted it would be nice to be able to replace kosuke with colvin and find another bat for left. but i really think we need to shore up the rotation with a big arm and maybe brandon webb.

[questionmarkgrace]

The cubs just recalled hoffpauir so I'm guessing that colvin or soriano aren't considered options at 1st base by management.

[Magnetic Curses]

um, i don't think anyone was talking about this year, but okay, sure.

[dew1679666265]

Dunn didn't get anywhere close to 4/60 two years ago. 2/20 is what he got -- half the years and 1/3 the dollars.

 

Not sure why he'd get a significantly better deal than 2/20 now, considering he's 2 years older, and generally speaking, MLB is in no better financial shape.

 

When Dunn hit the free agency market before, his value was significantly depressed because he was viewed as just an outfielder. No team liked his OF defense and many wondered if he could play first base. Thus, his offers were fewer (the Cubs were scared away by the defense and them entering the bidding would have significantly raised his cost by itself) and his contract was less than his true value.

 

Now, however, more teams will be comfortable with the idea that he can not only play first, but not be a liability there as well. With his offense being the usual stellar that it has been the past couple of years, his value is sure to rise and probably significantly. Add in that Pena, Cantu and maybe Branyan are the only real first base options out there outside of him and you have a possibility for $13-15 a year for 3-4 years. The economy is really the only reason I'm not certain he'll get what he's asking.

[dew1679666265]

i would love dunn, but if it's a guy like dunn or a guy like cliff lee, i pick pitching. granted i have no idea why lee would want to land in chicago.

 

Do the Cubs really need pitching? Dempster's been really good this year (3.98 xFIP), Wells is looking like a mid-rotation type guy at least and Z and Gorzo are good bets to turn in decent seasons (mid 4s xFIP).

 

I'd be really interested in a reclamation project like Brandon Webb, but I don't know that I'd pay ace money to a guy like Cliff Lee who's going to turn 33 next year. Halladay's getting $20 mil a year, Sabathia's getting $23 mil a year and even A.J. Burnett is getting $16.5 mil a year. I can't see Lee getting less than Burnett and he'll likely be a lot closer to Sabathia/Halladay money. With a deep pitching staff and a number of good prospects nearly ready, I don't want to shell out that type of money to a 32 year old.

[Magnetic Curses]

i would love dunn, but if it's a guy like dunn or a guy like cliff lee, i pick pitching. granted i have no idea why lee would want to land in chicago.

 

Do the Cubs really need pitching? Dempster's been really good this year (3.98 xFIP), Wells is looking like a mid-rotation type guy at least and Z and Gorzo are good bets to turn in decent seasons (mid 4s xFIP).

 

I'd be really interested in a reclamation project like Brandon Webb, but I don't know that I'd pay ace money to a guy like Cliff Lee who's going to turn 33 next year. Halladay's getting $20 mil a year, Sabathia's getting $23 mil a year and even A.J. Burnett is getting $16.5 mil a year. I can't see Lee getting less than Burnett and he'll likely be a lot closer to Sabathia/Halladay money. With a deep pitching staff and a number of good prospects nearly ready, I don't want to shell out that type of money to a 32 year old.

 

i see a steady rotation, but i'd like to see an ace.

[dew1679666265]

i would love dunn, but if it's a guy like dunn or a guy like cliff lee, i pick pitching. granted i have no idea why lee would want to land in chicago.

 

Do the Cubs really need pitching? Dempster's been really good this year (3.98 xFIP), Wells is looking like a mid-rotation type guy at least and Z and Gorzo are good bets to turn in decent seasons (mid 4s xFIP).

 

I'd be really interested in a reclamation project like Brandon Webb, but I don't know that I'd pay ace money to a guy like Cliff Lee who's going to turn 33 next year. Halladay's getting $20 mil a year, Sabathia's getting $23 mil a year and even A.J. Burnett is getting $16.5 mil a year. I can't see Lee getting less than Burnett and he'll likely be a lot closer to Sabathia/Halladay money. With a deep pitching staff and a number of good prospects nearly ready, I don't want to shell out that type of money to a 32 year old.

 

i see a steady rotation, but i'd like to see an ace.

 

I'd like an ace as well, but not at $17-20 mil a year for a 32 year old. I'd rather save the money, go for a reclamation project and then try hard for Adrian Gonzalez in the 2011 offseason.

[Rob]

I absolutely would love to see an ace.

 

I just don't want to pay huge money for an old one.

[CubsWin]

It's kind of frustrating that they gave him away for nothing real good and payed for him. Hendry's GM nickname is probably "Niceguy Jim".

Gee, I thought the Cubs got quite a good return for six weeks of Derrek Lee.

 

Robinson Lopez, 19 year old dominican pitcher with a decent frame who dominated rookie ball as a 18 year old, made the jump all the to low A this year and started off strong but struggled as the year went on but who has still held opponents to under a hit per inning. If he repeats Low A next season, he'll still be a year young for the league. And two relievers a 23 year old, 6'4" lefty, Tyrelle Harris, who has basically dominated at every level on his way to AA where he is just under a strikeout per inning and as a WHIP under 1. And a 22 year old lefty, Jeff Lorick, who I'm less excited about, but who has allowed less than a hit per inning, as respectable WHIP of 1.22 on the year.

 

By my estimation, it isn't likely that either Lopez or Harris will be good major leaguers, but it is possible. And that's not a bad return for 6 weeks of a struggling firstbaseman.

By my estimation they got nothing and payed Atlanta for the services. It's not a big deal, b/c like you wrote it will only be for the remainder of the season and playoffs.

 

I think Hendry was doing Lee a favor for being a good citizen. Kind of like early parol. I don't necessarily have a problem with it and I didn't expect a top 10 prospect, but I would have liked to have gotten someone of value instead of a straight salary dump. That's why I said it was "kind of frustrating".

So you really think that Lopez and Harris have no value? There's a lot of evidence that suggest otherwise. What has you discount that evidence?

[XZero771679666304]

I absolutely would love to see an ace.

 

I just don't want to pay huge money for an old one.

 

Yeah, and while Lee hasn't been totally prone to injury, there is enough history there to make me a tad nervous, especially at his age.

[gjshefner]

For those mentioning Branyan as a possible first baseman for next year, I live in Cleveland and watched Branyan butcher first base this year until the Indians dumped him. I have been a baseball fan for 50 years, and have never seen a worse defensive first baseman than Branyan this year. The Indians routinely removed him in the 7th inning for a mediocre Andy Marte, and are thrilled with the defensive improvement they have seen with LaPorta at first, who is just learning how to play the position.

[Banedon]

So I've seen a lot of praise for the prospects in this deal, but cnnsi doesn't seem very impressed...

 

As for the three pitchers headed to the Cubs, right-hander Robinson Lopez is an unexceptional 19-year-old Dominican who has seen time as both a starter and reliever this year in his first full minor league season. The other two, righty Tyrelle Harris and lefty Jeffrey Lorick, are relief pitchers drafted out of southern colleges in the middle rounds of the 2009 draft. Lorick, a 22-year-old taken out of the University of Virginia in the 20th round, just reached High-A and thus has yet to really be tested. Harris, 23 and taken out of the University of Tennessee a round earlier, is a large man (6-foot-4, 235 pounds) with similarly large strikeout numbers (11.3 K/9 in his minor league career) who impressively hasn't allowed a home run in 67 minor league innings. Harris just reached Double-A, which is were his true potential as a major league set-up man will start to be revealed. None of the three are serious prospects.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/cliff_corcoran/08/18/braves.lee/index.html?eref=sihp

[Fro]

i would love dunn, but if it's a guy like dunn or a guy like cliff lee, i pick pitching. granted i have no idea why lee would want to land in chicago.

 

Do the Cubs really need pitching? Dempster's been really good this year (3.98 xFIP), Wells is looking like a mid-rotation type guy at least and Z and Gorzo are good bets to turn in decent seasons (mid 4s xFIP)

 

You're counting on a lot of things to go right if you expect to compete with this current staff.

 

I don't know if you've noticed, but outside of Dempster (who's more like a 2 or 3 and not an ace), we've been pretty bad. Silva's fallen back to earth and is average overall. Z is a headcase. Can't count on Gorzo pitching like we did this year. Wells has been below-average.

[KingCubsFan]

um, i don't think anyone was talking about this year, but okay, sure.

Why do they have to wait until the end of the year to start making a position switch?

[Guest]

I'm pretty confident that Chris Corcoran found out about these pitchers the same way we all did. For 6 weeks of Derrek Lee they got a Top 20 prospect that's 19 with upside, a reliever with great K numbers, and a LH reliever with decent results. And they got that after the deadline. That's a real nice return no matter how you look at it.

[wvcbxl]

I'm pretty confident that Chris Corcoran found out about these pitchers the same way we all did.

 

And he has the same reaction as most people: "I've never heard of these guys so they can't be serious prospects"

 

From what I've read, the return seems to be about as good (if not better) as could be expected.

[fromthestretch]

I have to wonder what happens if Wellington Castillo shows some MLB ability. Does Soto go to first since he's had some health issues? He could play the Vmart role and be the back up catcher/starting 1B with Hoffpauir backing up 1B.

 

You still run into the problem that there are very few worthwhile catchers in free agency this year. Soto at 1B would also hurt Soto's value substantially since his bat is premium-level for a catcher, but only somewhat above average at 1B. Even if Castillo could hit at an average level for a catcher, I don't think that would help the offense.

 

It's better to have an average 1B and an elite catcher than two average to slightly above average players at 1B and C.

 

I guess a lot depends on how well a combination of Castillo/Chirinos/Some new catcher could produce offensively. You also have to wonder if Soto could produce at a slightly higher level offensively than he is (or at least maintain this level of performance for a longer period of time) if you take away the physical toll of catching. If you look at this year's numbers, Soto's rate stats would be well above average for MLB 1B.

 

MLB 1B in 2010: .268/.352/.456/.809

Soto in 2010: .288/.401/.519/.920

 

Obviously, not quite the offensive advantage he holds as a catcher, but he wouldn't be killing this team offensively by playing first (provided that the Cubs can get some production out of the catcher position with different personnel there).

 

I'm not advocating moving Soto at this time, but I wouldn't completely dismiss it as an option. If the Cubs can get Dunn or another dominant bat to play first, then that's certainly the better route to take.

[SouthSideRyan]

i would love dunn, but if it's a guy like dunn or a guy like cliff lee, i pick pitching. granted i have no idea why lee would want to land in chicago.

 

Do the Cubs really need pitching? Dempster's been really good this year (3.98 xFIP), Wells is looking like a mid-rotation type guy at least and Z and Gorzo are good bets to turn in decent seasons (mid 4s xFIP)

 

You're counting on a lot of things to go right if you expect to compete with this current staff.

 

I don't know if you've noticed, but outside of Dempster (who's more like a 2 or 3 and not an ace), we've been pretty bad. Silva's fallen back to earth and is average overall. Z is a headcase. Can't count on Gorzo pitching like we did this year. Wells has been below-average.

 

EVERY SINGLE STARTER (Except Z) HAS BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE

[TheDude]

Dunn in Wrigley is a reason to get excited about what looks to be an otherwise mediocre 2011. I think you go Dunn or save. I pray Hendry doesn't throw 10 million at a modest improvement over Lee.

[UMFan83]

I'm pretty confident that Chris Corcoran found out about these pitchers the same way we all did. For 6 weeks of Derrek Lee they got a Top 20 prospect that's 19 with upside, a reliever with great K numbers, and a LH reliever with decent results. And they got that after the deadline. That's a real nice return no matter how you look at it.

 

I agree with you, but I should point it it should be "For 6 weeks of half priced Derrek Lee" since we had to pay half his deal and that created extra value to get the return we did.

[Guest]

Not sure if this was posted, but here's an interesting article from Rosenthal into the mechanics of the deal.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Derrek-Lee-deal-comes-together-perfectly-081810

[dew1679666265]

I absolutely would love to see an ace.

 

I just don't want to pay huge money for an old one.

 

Exactly.

[dew1679666265]

You're counting on a lot of things to go right if you expect to compete with this current staff.

 

I don't know if you've noticed, but outside of Dempster (who's more like a 2 or 3 and not an ace), we've been pretty bad. Silva's fallen back to earth and is average overall. Z is a headcase. Can't count on Gorzo pitching like we did this year. Wells has been below-average.

 

Wells: ERA 4.44 FIP 3.80 xFIP 3.96/ 6.99 K/9, 2.8 BB/9/ 2.7 WAR

He's really not been below average. FIP and xFIP have him well above average.

 

Z has also been pretty underrated this year. He's not been worth his contract by any stretch, but his xFIP is better than it was in 2007, his K/9 is higher than it's been since 2006 and his BABIP is higher than it's been in his entire career. He's pitched ok this year.

 

Gorzo is a young pitcher who's been decent this year and has strong minor league numbers. There's really no reason to think he can't be at least decent next year, if not better.

 

As a team, the Cubs' pitchers are 11th in the majors in WAR. That's well above average and close to very good. The Cubs' starters are 12th in the majors in xFIP. It's not going to be a dominant staff, but it'll be good enough next year to not shell out $18+ mil over 4 years for a 32 year old Cliff Lee.

[Magnetic Curses]

um, i don't think anyone was talking about this year, but okay, sure.

Why do they have to wait until the end of the year to start making a position switch?

 

are you saying that if they were moving soriano to first, they #1. wouldn't call up a position player to take lee's spot and just go with 24 and #2. put soriano at first immediately?

[Outshined_One]

I guess a lot depends on how well a combination of Castillo/Chirinos/Some new catcher could produce offensively. You also have to wonder if Soto could produce at a slightly higher level offensively than he is (or at least maintain this level of performance for a longer period of time) if you take away the physical toll of catching. If you look at this year's numbers, Soto's rate stats would be well above average for MLB 1B.

 

MLB 1B in 2010: .268/.352/.456/.809

Soto in 2010: .288/.401/.519/.920

 

Obviously, not quite the offensive advantage he holds as a catcher, but he wouldn't be killing this team offensively by playing first (provided that the Cubs can get some production out of the catcher position with different personnel there).

 

I'm not advocating moving Soto at this time, but I wouldn't completely dismiss it as an option. If the Cubs can get Dunn or another dominant bat to play first, then that's certainly the better route to take.

 

Out of curiosity, where did you get those numbers? I'm curious about what the rate stats for catchers look like.