Re: Cubs Step up pursuit of Byrd

[rawaction]

Marlon Byrd? Because the last time Hendry signed a Texas Ranger off a career year worked out so well.

 

 

Yeah, well....but what about the time before that?

 

Mark Derosa was pretty decent.

[Bote McBoteface]

Can we tell Bradley that we were just messing with his head and that we still like him? I'd much prefer a Cubs team that doesn't include Byrd on the roster.

[CUBZ99]

Can we tell Bradley that we were just messing with his head and that we still like him? I'd much prefer a Cubs team that doesn't include Byrd on the roster.

 

Looking at Byrd's stats he doesn't look that bad. .800+ OPS for the last three years at CF? I would take that. Sure he wouldn't be a huge upgrade over Bradley, but considering defense and the fact that Fukudome would move back to RF, I wouldn't be against signing him for a reasonable contract.

[UMFan83]

Can we tell Bradley that we were just messing with his head and that we still like him? I'd much prefer a Cubs team that doesn't include Byrd on the roster.

 

Looking at Byrd's stats he doesn't look that bad. .800+ OPS for the last three years at CF? I would take that. Sure he wouldn't be a huge upgrade over Bradley, but considering defense and the fact that Fukudome would move back to RF, I wouldn't be against signing him for a reasonable contract.

 

What makes you think he's gonna have an .800+ OPS outside of Arlington? And crossing into his mid-30's?

[imb]

marlon byrd? hahahahahah

[CardsFanInChiTown]

In the past three years Byrd's had OPS+'s (which is park adjusted) of 106, 121 and 112 while playing serviceable defense in a premium position.

 

He's a good player who could represent one of the better values this off-season.

[UMFan83]

In the past three years Byrd's had OPS+'s (which is park adjusted) of 106, 121 and 112 while playing decent defense in a premium position.

 

He's a good player who could represent one of the better values this off-season.

 

I disagree for one reason:

 

He won't end up a value because Hendry always overpays for his man.

[CUBZ99]

Can we tell Bradley that we were just messing with his head and that we still like him? I'd much prefer a Cubs team that doesn't include Byrd on the roster.

 

Looking at Byrd's stats he doesn't look that bad. .800+ OPS for the last three years at CF? I would take that. Sure he wouldn't be a huge upgrade over Bradley, but considering defense and the fact that Fukudome would move back to RF, I wouldn't be against signing him for a reasonable contract.

 

What makes you think he's gonna have an .800+ OPS outside of Arlington? And crossing into his mid-30's?

 

Wrigley is not necessarily a pitcher's park, and he would have the same hitting coach, whom he seemed to excel under. I'm just saying, it's not like he only put up decent numbers last year. He has put together three solid seasons in a row. I wouldn't pay him Cameron numbers but if Hendry can get him for 5MM a year, I would take him.

[USSoccer]

Awful

[jersey cubs fan]

man, the milton bradley signing was an absolute disaster. it literally could not have gone any worse.

 

I don't know, he could have been truly awful, and fought one of the Cubs good players, and got severely injured right after reaching his option clause. At least at this point he's still a servicable baseball player that the Cubs could use if they were smart.

[CUBZ99]

Reading Bruce's article in the Daily Herald today gives me the impression that Hendry is in no hurry to sign Byrd or any other CF.

[Guest]

In the past three years Byrd's had OPS+'s (which is park adjusted) of 106, 121 and 112 while playing serviceable defense in a premium position.

 

He's a good player who could represent one of the better values this off-season.

 

It's not park adjusted enough to say he will put up those numbers in a Cub uniform. He's actually a pretty good role model for the use of OPS+.

 

When he was in Phily, he maintained a higher OPS+ than he did when he was in Washington. Phily is a much better hitting park than Washington ever was. The numbers spike tremendously when he moves on to Texas. A quick look at his splits in Texas consistently puts him in the 130 range in OPS+, but in the 100 range for his road games. Since a significant amount of his road games are against teams with horrible hitting parks (Seattle, Oakland and Anaheim), it makes sense that his road splits are probably a touch lower than his real ability. However, Texas' park is not even realistic, as it might be a worse park than Colorado during the time we are comparing Byrd's stats.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say he's a 95-105 OPS+ guy in the NL Central. There are some good hitting parks, but he won't have the pleasure of Arlington anymore to prop up his stats. That's about as generic as it gets. Bradley was in that range last year, but we already know he had a pretty bad year by his own standards. Byrd's probably not much better than a bad Milton Bradley season.

[haubrich91]

Reading Bruce's article in the Daily Herald today gives me the impression that Hendry is in no hurry to sign Byrd or any other CF.

 

Maybe cause he can't trade his right fielder.

[erik316wttn]

marlon byrd? hahahahahah

 

Mark this day on the calendar.

 

I agree with imb!

 

Excuse me, but I'm going to go lay down now. I suddenly don't feel well.

[Backtobanks]

In the past three years Byrd's had OPS+'s (which is park adjusted) of 106, 121 and 112 while playing serviceable defense in a premium position.

 

He's a good player who could represent one of the better values this off-season.

 

It's not park adjusted enough to say he will put up those numbers in a Cub uniform. He's actually a pretty good role model for the use of OPS+.

 

When he was in Phily, he maintained a higher OPS+ than he did when he was in Washington. Phily is a much better hitting park than Washington ever was. The numbers spike tremendously when he moves on to Texas. A quick look at his splits in Texas consistently puts him in the 130 range in OPS+, but in the 100 range for his road games. Since a significant amount of his road games are against teams with horrible hitting parks (Seattle, Oakland and Anaheim), it makes sense that his road splits are probably a touch lower than his real ability. However, Texas' park is not even realistic, as it might be a worse park than Colorado during the time we are comparing Byrd's stats.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say he's a 95-105 OPS+ guy in the NL Central. There are some good hitting parks, but he won't have the pleasure of Arlington anymore to prop up his stats. That's about as generic as it gets. Bradley was in that range last year, but we already know he had a pretty bad year by his own standards. Byrd's probably not much better than a bad Milton Bradley season.

 

I'm not saying he's the second coming of Willie Mays, but maybe he's just a late bloomer. DeRosa was a fair utility guy until he got a chance to play regularly and met Jaramillo. Maybe Byrd got his chance, moved to a hitter's park, and met a great hitting coach. I'm not upset with Byrd as a 3rd choice as long as he doesn't cost too much.

[Guest]

I'm not saying he's the second coming of Willie Mays, but maybe he's just a late bloomer. DeRosa was a fair utility guy until he got a chance to play regularly and met Jaramillo. Maybe Byrd got his chance, moved to a hitter's park, and met a great hitting coach. I'm not upset with Byrd as a 3rd choice as long as he doesn't cost too much.

 

That is absolutely ridiculous. Look at his road splits for the last 3 years and compare them to his home splits. Is Jaramillo only good at getting guys to hit better at home? That would be rather silly.

 

Look at the actual splits and you will see exactly what I'm referring to. I'm not bagging on the guy. I don't really want him, but I felt like I was being pretty fair basing it off his previous stats.

[SouthSideRyan]

How can you in one post recognize that AL West road parks are garbage for hitters, and then complain that Byrd is hitting much better at home in the next?

[Rob]

Byrd would probably be a tick above average with the bat playing for us, and perhaps a tick below average defensively (although that's harder to determine with his limited playing time and numbers being all over the place).

 

Any way you want to cut it, he should be pretty close to average.

[jersey cubs fan]

How can you in one post recognize that AL West road parks are garbage for hitters, and then complain that Byrd is hitting much better at home in the next?

 

Are AL west parks that bad? I thought Seattle was no longer a pitcher haven and only Oakland has any sort of significant negative affect. Angels are pretty average to hitter friendly.

[fromthestretch]

How can you in one post recognize that AL West road parks are garbage for hitters, and then complain that Byrd is hitting much better at home in the next?

 

Are AL west parks that bad? I thought Seattle was no longer a pitcher haven and only Oakland has any sort of significant negative affect. Angels are pretty average to hitter friendly.

 

Looking at baseball-reference, the park factors for Seattle and Oakland have been pretty similar the past two seasons...both a little friendlier to pitchers.

[Guest]

How can you in one post recognize that AL West road parks are garbage for hitters, and then complain that Byrd is hitting much better at home in the next?

 

When I made my comparison to the AL West parks, I left out Texas, since he actually plays for Texas. Texas is calculating into his home splits. A big percentage of his road games are in the other AL West parks and each one of those parks isn't nearly as hitter friendly as Texas by a long shot.

[Guest]

Byrd's career OPS+ with Philadelphia: 86

Byrd's career OPS+ with Washington: 82

Byrd's career OPS+ with Texas: 112

 

To be fair, Byrd was more of a part time player in his days in the NL, so not only does his NL numbers reflect his first time in the bigs, it is also spread out over more seasons. But, even in his best season in the NL, his OPS was 111, and that was in 2003. After that year, he was consistently in the 80's until he made his move to the AL. Now let's look at his OPS+ at home and on the road each year he's been in Texas.

 

2009 Home: 124

2009 Road: 102

 

2008 Home: 136

2008 Road: 113

 

2007 Home: 137

2007 Road: 91

 

His road numbers are much more in line with his career numbers, and you can see the benefit he's enjoyed playing in Arlington. His numbers are definitely propped up by the fact he played there. That's why they really aren't an accurate portrayal of what to expect if he were wearing a Cub jersey.

[cubsfan26]

Just curious but how good of a hitters park is Wrigley? If Wrigley is still a good hitters park, and the possible upgrade of hitting on the road due to more hitter friendly NL Central parks compared to AL West parks. Maybe the dropoff overall won't be all that big.

[Backtobanks]

Just curious but how good of a hitters park is Wrigley? If Wrigley is still a good hitters park, and the possible upgrade of hitting on the road due to more hitter friendly NL Central parks compared to AL West parks. Maybe the dropoff overall won't be all that big.

 

Baseball-Reference.com's three-year park factors (unless a specific ballpark hasn't been around that long). A park factor above 100 means hitter friendly and a park factor below 100 means pitcher friendly. Let's start at the top …

 

Boston Red Sox – 108

Colorado Rockies – 107

Arizona Diamondbacks – 107

Chicago Cubs – 106

Chicago White Sox – 105

 

Fenway Park has narrowly overtaken Coors Field as baseball's most hitter-friendly venue, which is remarkable for a place that actually reduces home runs. Thanks to the Green Monster in left field, homers have been harder to come by in Boston while run scoring has increased overall due to dramatically boosting doubles. In other words, when it comes to the Green Monster it's difficult to hit a ball over it and relatively easy to hit a ball into it.

 

Coors Field remains a great place to hit, but over the past three seasons has merely been a very good hitter's ballpark rather than an absurd hitter's paradise. During its first two seasons of existence Planet Coors had park factors of 128 and 129, and from 1995-2000 the average number was 125. However, since then that number has steadily come back down to earth: 117, 110, 119, 110, 107, 109, 105.

 

For whatever reason the offense boosting in Arizona has been sort of overlooked, but whether it's called Bank One Ballpark or Chase Field the Diamondbacks have always played in a place that significantly increases run scoring. All of which makes Brandon Webb's six straight seasons with an ERA under 3.60 even more amazing. Both ballparks in Chicago pump up scoring, and U.S. Cellular Field is particularly great for homers.

 

Cincinnati Reds – 104

Philadelphia Phillies – 103

Baltimore Orioles – 103

Tampa Bay Rays – 103

Cleveland Indians – 103

Los Angeles Angels – 103

 

For the most part Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati and Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia have been hitter-friendly in the 102-105 range since opening in 2003 and 2004, respectively. Camden Yards has had a hitter-friendly reputation since opening in 1992, but in reality it was very hitter-friendly right away, slightly pitcher-friendly for a decade beginning in the late-90s, and has trended back toward hitter-friendly recently.

 

Detroit Tigers – 102

San Francisco Giants – 102

Texas Rangers – 101

Washington Nationals – 101

Los Angeles Dodgers – 100

Milwaukee Brewers – 100

 

This group of slightly above-average hitter's ballparks is interesting, because Comerica Park, AT&T Park, and Dodger Stadium all have reputations for being pitcher-friendly while Rangers Ballpark has a reputation for being among baseball's most hitter-friendly venues. Also, note that Nationals Park is a 101 based on just one year of data, because it opened last season.

 

For years Comerica Park was exceptionally friendly to pitchers, but that changed along with a shift in the left field dimensions and Detroit has slightly increased run scoring in three straight seasons. Similarly, AT&T Park (and various other names) was initially very pitcher-friendly—which makes Barry Bonds' exploits even more incredible—but has pumped up offense slightly in five of the past six seasons.

 

Dodger Stadium earned its reputation as a pitcher's ballpark by decreasing offense for nearly 50 years, but has quietly trended toward hitter-friendly over the past few seasons. What's interesting about the change is that Dodger Stadium remains very tough on hitters when it comes to singles, doubles, and triples, but has enhanced homers. In other words, still tough on batting averages, not so tough on power.

 

Rangers Ballpark has gone through the same sort of gradual change as Coors Field, but on a lesser scale. It has been above 100 in all but two of the past 14 seasons, but whereas the park factor was 110, 110, and 112 from 2002-2004 it has been just 103, 103, 97, and 103 over the past four seasons. Texas is still a good place to hit, particularly for power, but it's no longer the best hitter's ballpark in the American League.

 

Houston Astros – 99

Toronto Blue Jays – 99

Florida Marlins – 99

Atlanta Braves – 99

St. Louis Cardinals – 99

 

The big surprise in this group is Minute Maid Park in Houston, which most people would probably peg as one of the league's most hitter-friendly thanks to the short porch in left field. That was true for a long time, as the ballpark boosted offensive significantly for its first handful of years whether it was named Enron Field or Minute Maid Park, but over the past five seasons the average park factor has been exactly 100.

 

Kansas City Royals – 97

Seattle Mariners – 96

Pittsburgh Pirates – 95

Minnesota Twins – 93

Oakland A's – 93

San Diego Padres – 89

 

The only real surprise in this group of highly pitcher-friendly ballparks is the Metrodome, but the old "Homerdome" nickname stopped being accurate a while ago. The Metrodome had a park factor of 100 or above in all but five seasons from 1982-2005, typically ranking in the 102-106 range. However, it has been below 100 in each of the past three seasons, including 92 in 2007 and 94 last year. Perhaps the change in carpet is to blame.

 

With a spacious outfield and miles of foul territory Oakland's ballpark has been a great place for pitchers for basically its entire 40-year run. That's bad news for Matt Holliday, who leaves Coors Field and the NL for the most pitcher-friendly home in the AL. He's not going to suddenly turn into Juan Pierre, but Holliday is highly unlikely to put up MVP-caliber raw numbers with the A's and could easily see his OPS drop 150 points.

[Eric Clipperton]

I wish people would stop mentioning Jaramillo like he is the secret ingredient for certain players and that he should in any way influence the Cubs' offseason acquisitions.