Re: Cubs Step up pursuit of Byrd

[MSG T]

Over the past 3 years Byrd has been more productive than I had assumed: .289/.351/.472/.823 (113 OPS+)

In fact, when given 400+ ABs, his lowest output as a hitter was .303/.366/.418/.784 at age 25.

 

I (like most people on this board, I believe) was hoping for Cameron, although outside of HRs, Byrd has outperformed Cameron when given full-time ABs (Cameron over the last 3 years: .245/.334/.452/.786 (108+)). Obviously, this assessment neglects Cameron's defensive ability, which is substantial.

Provided Byrd isn't offered an absurd contract, what would people here prefer: Byrd for 3 years ~$18-20 million, or Cameron at the 2 years $15.5 million that Boston gave him?

 

I'd pay more for Cameron. For the reason, look at his numbers away from Arlington in the post above yours. Plus Cameron is really good defensively.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

Given the range of scores, not sure if he's good, average, bad or if UZR/150 sucks. He's all over the place though. Last year and 2003 are the only years he's played over 100 games in CF. In 2003 his UZR/150 was 14.6 in 131 games, but the next year was -23.1 in 93 games. I'm guessing he's probably around average defensively, but having not watched him, at all, I can't say for sure. There's not really any trend there to go by, he's way too up and down.

 

He's pretty short and stocky too, isn't he? Not Kirby short, but he looks like a fullback, not a CF. This would have to be a 1 year deal, or maybe 1 plus option.

[A-Cal]

Not surprising and extremely disappointing.

 

Thank you Hendry for yet again improving team OBP.

=D>

[jersey cubs fan]

The switch to the NL would help him, and historically he's been more of a doubles hitter than a home run hitter, which could help lessen the blow.

 

Really? You hear this and assume it's true when talking about an AL East pitcher, but would you really assume a mediocre OF would become better just going to the NL? He was in the NL before and really sucked. If there's any expected bounce to the NL move, I'd have to imagine being 32 now, and possibly playing a ton of day games in Wrigley (cold start, hot summer, brick wall) would offset that.

[MSG T]

 

Given the range of scores, not sure if he's good, average, bad or if UZR/150 sucks. He's all over the place though. Last year and 2003 are the only years he's played over 100 games in CF. In 2003 his UZR/150 was 14.6 in 131 games, but the next year was -23.1 in 93 games. I'm guessing he's probably around average defensively, but having not watched him, at all, I can't say for sure. There's not really any trend there to go by, he's way too up and down.

 

He's pretty short and stocky too, isn't he? Not Kirby short, but he looks like a fullback, not a CF. This would have to be a 1 year deal, or maybe 1 plus option.

 

It says 6'/245lbs. Having seen him a couple of times at Iowa in 08(I think), that seems about right. Not short, but definitely stocky.

[Schwarber Fan]

Marlon Byrd? Because the last time Hendry signed a Texas Ranger off a career year worked out so well.

 

 

Yeah, well....but what about the time before that?

 

Fine... because the last time Hendry signed a Texas Ranger with the initials "MB" off a career year worked out so well.

[pitchcs]

Over the past 3 years Byrd has been more productive than I had assumed: .289/.351/.472/.823 (113 OPS+)

In fact, when given 400+ ABs, his lowest output as a hitter was .303/.366/.418/.784 at age 25.

 

I (like most people on this board, I believe) was hoping for Cameron, although outside of HRs, Byrd has outperformed Cameron when given full-time ABs (Cameron over the last 3 years: .245/.334/.452/.786 (108+)). Obviously, this assessment neglects Cameron's defensive ability, which is substantial.

Provided Byrd isn't offered an absurd contract, what would people here prefer: Byrd for 3 years ~$18-20 million, or Cameron at the 2 years $15.5 million that Boston gave him?

 

I'd prefer Cameron at the contract he received.

 

Trib said Cubs weren't close to offering Cameron the $$ he received, so I'm sure Byrd would be a fair amount cheaper.

[SweetZombieJesus]

I might as well start booing him irregardless of what he does in april.

[rocket]

Marlon Byrd? Because the last time Hendry signed a Texas Ranger off a career year worked out so well.

 

but the time before that when we signed a texas ranger off a career year (mark derosa) it worked out very well. so i think we're due for this to be a great signing.

 

edit: nevermind, apparently i should read the whole thread before i post something.

[Tyrant]

Marlon Byrd? Because the last time Hendry signed a Texas Ranger off a career year worked out so well.

 

 

Yeah, well....but what about the time before that?

 

We all fell in love with the most rugged, amazing, greatest Cub of all time.

[jersey cubs fan]

don't forget dreamy

[Serge]

The switch to the NL would help him, and historically he's been more of a doubles hitter than a home run hitter, which could help lessen the blow.

 

Really? You hear this and assume it's true when talking about an AL East pitcher, but would you really assume a mediocre OF would become better just going to the NL? He was in the NL before and really sucked. If there's any expected bounce to the NL move, I'd have to imagine being 32 now, and possibly playing a ton of day games in Wrigley (cold start, hot summer, brick wall) would offset that.

 

Yeah it still makes a difference. I mean you're right it's bigger for the AL East than the AL West, but the difference is still there. I've read that the rule of thumb is half a win going from the AL to the NL, take that for what you will.

 

Also, I don't get why everyone's talking so negatively about the move from Arlington. Wrigley is a bigger hitters park than Arlington, so he probably shouldn't be hurt that much from making the switch, if he's even hurt at all.

[E.J.]

Is the offseason over yet?

[jersey cubs fan]

The switch to the NL would help him, and historically he's been more of a doubles hitter than a home run hitter, which could help lessen the blow.

 

Really? You hear this and assume it's true when talking about an AL East pitcher, but would you really assume a mediocre OF would become better just going to the NL? He was in the NL before and really sucked. If there's any expected bounce to the NL move, I'd have to imagine being 32 now, and possibly playing a ton of day games in Wrigley (cold start, hot summer, brick wall) would offset that.

 

Yeah it still makes a difference. I mean you're right it's bigger for the AL East than the AL West, but the difference is still there. I've read that the rule of thumb is half a win going from the AL to the NL, take that for what you will.

 

Also, I don't get why everyone's talking so negatively about the move from Arlington. Wrigley is a bigger hitters park than Arlington, so he probably shouldn't be hurt that much from making the switch, if he's even hurt at all.

 

I think the early cold stiff winds to start can screw up a guy even if the summer will eventually prove easier to hit in with Wrigley. But moreso than Arlington, my concern is that his age 29/30 seasons were outliers in a pretty pathetic career. The closest he's come to being a full season guy is this past year, when his numbers declined, and he's been a 3/1 k/bb guy. I don't trust high k low bb guys who put together a couple quality seasons in an otherwise lackluster career. It's also distressing that his closest comp on baseballreference is Reed Freaking Johnson.

[Serge]

The switch to the NL would help him, and historically he's been more of a doubles hitter than a home run hitter, which could help lessen the blow.

 

Really? You hear this and assume it's true when talking about an AL East pitcher, but would you really assume a mediocre OF would become better just going to the NL? He was in the NL before and really sucked. If there's any expected bounce to the NL move, I'd have to imagine being 32 now, and possibly playing a ton of day games in Wrigley (cold start, hot summer, brick wall) would offset that.

 

Yeah it still makes a difference. I mean you're right it's bigger for the AL East than the AL West, but the difference is still there. I've read that the rule of thumb is half a win going from the AL to the NL, take that for what you will.

 

Also, I don't get why everyone's talking so negatively about the move from Arlington. Wrigley is a bigger hitters park than Arlington, so he probably shouldn't be hurt that much from making the switch, if he's even hurt at all.

 

I think the early cold stiff winds to start can screw up a guy even if the summer will eventually prove easier to hit in with Wrigley. But moreso than Arlington, my concern is that his age 29/30 seasons were outliers in a pretty pathetic career. The closest he's come to being a full season guy is this past year, when his numbers declined, and he's been a 3/1 k/bb guy. I don't trust high k low bb guys who put together a couple quality seasons in an otherwise lackluster career. It's also distressing that his closest comp on baseballreference is Reed Freaking Johnson.

 

That's a good point about the cold Aprils, but I think having Jaramillo here could/should keep him from trying to change too much and screw something up. That could just be me being hopeful though. I think my biggest worry is what you pointed out that he sucked until he turned 29. Hopefully he's just a late bloomer but if not this could be a rough signing.

[Old Style]

Over the past 3 years Byrd has been more productive than I had assumed: .289/.351/.472/.823 (113 OPS+)

In fact, when given 400+ ABs, his lowest output as a hitter was .303/.366/.418/.784 at age 25.

 

I (like most people on this board, I believe) was hoping for Cameron, although outside of HRs, Byrd has outperformed Cameron when given full-time ABs (Cameron over the last 3 years: .245/.334/.452/.786 (108+)). Obviously, this assessment neglects Cameron's defensive ability, which is substantial.

Provided Byrd isn't offered an absurd contract, what would people here prefer: Byrd for 3 years ~$18-20 million, or Cameron at the 2 years $15.5 million that Boston gave him?

 

I'd prefer Cameron at the contract he received.

+1

[illiniguy]

This is way better than keeping Milton Bradley. Marlon won't make a peep and will get along with everyone as he's hitting .240 and opsing .720 ](*,)

[davearm2]

That's a good point about the cold Aprils, but I think having Jaramillo here could/should keep him from trying to change too much and screw something up. That could just be me being hopeful though. I think my biggest worry is what you pointed out that he sucked until he turned 29. Hopefully he's just a late bloomer but if not this could be a rough signing.

I don't mean to single you out Serge, but all of this Jaramillo hype reminds me of when Baltimore hired Leo Mazzone and all of the O's fans assumed their entire pitching staff would show big improvements.

 

Well whatever worked for Mazzone in Atlanta certainly didn't translate to Baltimore.

[davell]

Byrd has the same agents as Bradley does. Gotta wonder what they're telling him about Chicago as it is. I could see Jim paying up here, scared of what's left on the market, if he misses out on him.

[Guest]

Byrd has the same agents as Bradley does. Gotta wonder what they're telling him about Chicago as it is. I could see Jim paying up here, scared of what's left on the market, if he misses out on him.

 

You bring up an interesting topic of discussion.

[cubsfan26]

I could see Jim paying up here, scared of what's left on the market, if he misses out on him.

 

In previous seasons I think that fear would be warranted. But I don't think people realize that Hendry can't shell out big money this offseason, even if he wanted to. He probably can't give Marlon Byrd something like 3 year at 24m. The biggest contract he could probably give is something simliar to what Cameron got. But even that would probably be on the high end. Something like Byrd at 6m in 2010 and 8m in 2011, with some type of vesting option based on production is about as high as we probably can go. Which IMO is probably too high, so hopefully another team gives him something like 3 year at 20-21m.

[Cubswin11]

I might as well start booing him irregardless of what he does in april.

I already got my tent and chairs set up outside of Hohokam ready to boo the minute he shows up to camp, I advise Cubs fans everywhere to follow suit.

[17 Seconds]

man, the milton bradley signing was an absolute disaster. it literally could not have gone any worse.

[Guest]

I could see Jim paying up here, scared of what's left on the market, if he misses out on him.

 

In previous seasons I think that fear would be warranted. But I don't think people realize that Hendry can't shell out big money this offseason, even if he wanted to. He probably can't give Marlon Byrd something like 3 year at 24m. The biggest contract he could probably give is something simliar to what Cameron got. But even that would probably be on the high end. Something like Byrd at 6m in 2010 and 8m in 2011, with some type of vesting option based on production is about as high as we probably can go. Which IMO is probably too high, so hopefully another team gives him something like 3 year at 20-21m.

 

I'm sure Byrd's agent wants the best deal possible, but he got burnt pretty bad with this Bradley fiasco. How quickly is this guy going to want to work magic with Hendry again? I'm curious of what Bradley and Byrd's relationship is like, also.

[17 Seconds]

I could see Jim paying up here, scared of what's left on the market, if he misses out on him.

 

In previous seasons I think that fear would be warranted. But I don't think people realize that Hendry can't shell out big money this offseason, even if he wanted to. He probably can't give Marlon Byrd something like 3 year at 24m. The biggest contract he could probably give is something simliar to what Cameron got. But even that would probably be on the high end. Something like Byrd at 6m in 2010 and 8m in 2011, with some type of vesting option based on production is about as high as we probably can go. Which IMO is probably too high, so hopefully another team gives him something like 3 year at 20-21m.

 

I'm sure Byrd's agent wants the best deal possible, but he got burnt pretty bad with this Bradley fiasco. How quickly is this guy going to want to work magic with Hendry again? I'm curious of what Bradley and Byrd's relationship is like, also.

 

i'd say that all of that stuff probably takes a back seat to $$$