Re: Cubs Step up pursuit of Byrd

[Sever82]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/cubs-step-up-pursuit-of-marlon-byrd.html

 

Cubs Step Up Pursuit Of Marlon Byrd

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [December 15, 2009 at 1:06pm CST]

The Cubs are pursuing Marlon Byrd more intensely, now that Mike Cameron is off the market, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The Cubs, who wanted Cameron, are still trying to gain payroll flexibility by trading Milton Bradley and at least some of the $21MM he'll make before the end of the 2011 season.

 

The Rangers stand to gain a supplementary round selection if Byrd signs with another team (though Byrd won't cost the Cubs or anyone else a pick).

[Sever82]

I guess its better than nothing. Hopefully Jimbo doesn't overpay and offer him 3yr 30 million. I still think if they sign Byrd, they should forget about Capps and go after Hudson or cabrera for 2nd.

[Andy]

Compensation pick? What sort of devilry is this? How in the world do teams go about getting crazy things like compensation picks?

 

/sarcasm

[Little Slide Rooter]

Ah yes, the learning to accept that Marlon Byrd will be our big offseason aquisition thread. Yay us.

[Sever82]

Hendry is an idiot. If he would've just let Bradley come back one more year or play out his contract. I mean assuming they'll spend 7 million on Byrd wouldn't a lineup including Bradley + Cabrera or Hudson be better than a lineup including Byrd and Baker? Thats assuming the cubs would've used the money to sign Cabrera or hudson if they kept bradley.

[Sever82]

Ah yes, the learning to accept that Marlon Byrd will be our big offseason aquisition thread. Yay us.

 

ha ha yes, there were three names i wanted the cubs to stay away from all offseason, Byrd, Ankiel and Pods. Looks like we're getting Byrd. I'll forgive Hendry if he somehow signs Sheets and Hudson or Cabrera.

[inari]

I guess its better than nothing. Hopefully Jimbo doesn't overpay and offer him 3yr 30 million. I still think if they sign Byrd, they should forget about Capps and go after Hudson or cabrera for 2nd.

 

No, it's not better than nothing. I'd rather not make a single move this offseason than sign Marlon Byrd.

[Sever82]

I guess its better than nothing. Hopefully Jimbo doesn't overpay and offer him 3yr 30 million. I still think if they sign Byrd, they should forget about Capps and go after Hudson or cabrera for 2nd.

 

No, it's not better than nothing. I'd rather not make a single move this offseason than sign Marlon Byrd.

 

i guess its just me feeling like i want the cubs to make some kind of news.

[MSG T]

I guess its better than nothing. Hopefully Jimbo doesn't overpay and offer him 3yr 30 million. I still think if they sign Byrd, they should forget about Capps and go after Hudson or cabrera for 2nd.

 

No, it's not better than nothing. I'd rather not make a single move this offseason than sign Marlon Byrd.

 

i guess its just me feeling like i want the cubs to make some kind of news.

 

Evidently, you're a masochist.

[cubsfan26]

I want nothing to do with Byrd unless we can get him for 1 year at like 4m or even two years at 8m. Thats most likely not going to happen. So I hope we miss out on Byrd, and add a outfielder through a trade or sign someone like Ryan Church instead. I doubt that the Cubs stepped up there pursuit for Byrd though. So I wouldn't get all worked up over this story. It's pretty common knowledge that the Cubs liked Granderson/Cameron/Byrd going into the offseason. So how that those guys are off the table, it's easy to write a story about the Cubs stepping up there pursuit for Byrd.

[Guest]

I wouldn't mind a Fukudome/Byrd (somehow, I see a joke hidden in there) platoon in CF with Bradley in RF.

[Sever82]

I want nothing to do with Byrd unless we can get him for 1 year at like 4m or even two years at 8m. Thats most likely not going to happen. So I hope we miss out on Byrd, and add a outfielder through a trade or sign someone like Ryan Church instead. I doubt that the Cubs stepped up there pursuit for Byrd though. So I wouldn't get all worked up over this story. It's pretty common knowledge that the Cubs liked Granderson/Cameron/Byrd going into the offseason. So how that those guys are off the table, it's easy to write a story about the Cubs stepping up there pursuit for Byrd.

 

Good point. I wouldn't mind Byrd and 10 Million over 2 yrs. 5 Mil a year isn't too bad but i would imagine Hendry will offer 7 million over three years with signing bonus of 15 millions plus a 20% share of the cubs. LOL

[Guancous]

Marlon Byrd? Because the last time Hendry signed a Texas Ranger off a career year worked out so well.

[CubColtPacer]

Byrd is a meh signing for me. He's probably a 750 OPS ok at defense CF outside Texas. He hits right-handers and left-handers about the same. Is that a guy to get excited about? No. He is probably a decent stopgap for the position though. It would also improve the Cubs OF defense and gives them more flexibility with 2 at least decent hitters on the squad that can play CF.

 

The main thing for me with Byrd is the years. He's too much of a risk with too little upside to give more than 2 years to. I'm ok with giving him a decent chunk of money but it better be a short deal.

[sweetpeteman]

Marlon Byrd? Because the last time Hendry signed a Texas Ranger off a career year worked out so well.

 

 

Yeah, well....but what about the time before that?

[erik316wttn]

I guess its better than nothing. Hopefully Jimbo doesn't overpay and offer him 3yr 30 million. I still think if they sign Byrd, they should forget about Capps and go after Hudson or cabrera for 2nd.

 

No, it's not better than nothing. I'd rather not make a single move this offseason than sign Marlon Byrd.

 

i guess its just me feeling like i want the cubs to make some kind of news.

 

Evidently, you're a masochist.

 

All Cubs fans are to an extent. Otherwise we wouldn't be Cubs fans.

[CUBZ99]

There is no way that Byrd should cost more than Cameron in either $$'s or years. Having said that, I have no faith whatsoever in Hendry's ability to make those types of deals anymore.

[MSG T]

I wouldn't mind a Fukudome/Byrd (somehow, I see a joke hidden in there) platoon in CF with Bradley in RF.

 

Except Byrd has reverse splits.

 

Byrd has better numbers against RHP 3 of the last 4 years. 2007 he was .809(OPS) v RHP/.826 v LHP. Other than that, he's been even(2008) or way better (06 & 09) against RHP. 2009 he was .090 (OPS) better against RHP.

[MSG T]

I guess its better than nothing. Hopefully Jimbo doesn't overpay and offer him 3yr 30 million. I still think if they sign Byrd, they should forget about Capps and go after Hudson or cabrera for 2nd.

 

No, it's not better than nothing. I'd rather not make a single move this offseason than sign Marlon Byrd.

 

i guess its just me feeling like i want the cubs to make some kind of news.

 

Evidently, you're a masochist.

 

All Cubs fans are to an extent. Otherwise we wouldn't be Cubs fans.

 

:-$

[UMFan83]

Marlon Byrd? Because the last time Hendry signed a Texas Ranger off a career year worked out so well.

 

 

Yeah, well....but what about the time before that?

 

That's what I was thinking haha.

[jersey cubs fan]

Byrd is a meh signing for me. He's probably a 750 OPS ok at defense CF outside Texas. He hits right-handers and left-handers about the same. Is that a guy to get excited about? No. He is probably a decent stopgap for the position though. It would also improve the Cubs OF defense and gives them more flexibility with 2 at least decent hitters on the squad that can play CF.

 

The main thing for me with Byrd is the years. He's too much of a risk with too little upside to give more than 2 years to. I'm ok with giving him a decent chunk of money but it better be a short deal.

 

That's about how I'd feel. But the fact that the only reason he'd be here is likely because they are paying Bradley to play elsewhere, it becomes more disappointing. He's got as much downside as Bradley on the field, with none of the upside. I don't know anything about his defense, but I thought back in the day the talk was he'd eventually have to go to a corner. If he's some defensive stud, it would be easier to talke, but he's a part-time player with a shoddy track record.

[MSG T]

Byrd is a meh signing for me. He's probably a 750 OPS ok at defense CF outside Texas. He hits right-handers and left-handers about the same. Is that a guy to get excited about? No. He is probably a decent stopgap for the position though. It would also improve the Cubs OF defense and gives them more flexibility with 2 at least decent hitters on the squad that can play CF.

 

The main thing for me with Byrd is the years. He's too much of a risk with too little upside to give more than 2 years to. I'm ok with giving him a decent chunk of money but it better be a short deal.

 

That's about how I'd feel. But the fact that the only reason he'd be here is likely because they are paying Bradley to play elsewhere, it becomes more disappointing. He's got as much downside as Bradley on the field, with none of the upside. I don't know anything about his defense, but I thought back in the day the talk was he'd eventually have to go to a corner. If he's some defensive stud, it would be easier to talke, but he's a part-time player with a shoddy track record.

 

Fangraphs has him at the following UZR/150 in CF:

 

2007- 1.2 in 63 games

2008- 15.3 in 57 games

2009- -9.5 in 104 games

 

Given the range of scores, not sure if he's good, average, bad or if UZR/150 sucks. He's all over the place though. Last year and 2003 are the only years he's played over 100 games in CF. In 2003 his UZR/150 was 14.6 in 131 games, but the next year was -23.1 in 93 games. I'm guessing he's probably around average defensively, but having not watched him, at all, I can't say for sure. There's not really any trend there to go by, he's way too up and down.

[UMFan83]

Based on last year's numbers, Byrd has a reverse split.

 

.300/.344/.491/.835 vs. RHP

.244/.293/.451/.744 vs. LHP

 

Don't know if he's the best platoon partner for anyone but another righty. But to be fair, in his "career year" in 2008 his splits were even and for his career they are even.

 

The scary number is the H/R splits. Now remember, the road number isn't his true value because hitters in general tend to hit better at home than road where they are more comfortable. But when you're evaluating a player who is playing in a bandbox, you don't like to see these:

 

Home: .282/.336/.538/.873

Road: .285/.322/.419/.740

 

Ouch, 133 point difference in OPS between home vs. road. And this one isn't a 1 year thing. In '08 when he had a better statistical season, the difference in OPS was .911 vs. 772 (139 points). And like in 09 the biggest reason from the drop in OPS is SLG, which is of course where you'd expect to improve playing at Arlington.

 

The switch to the NL would help him, and historically he's been more of a doubles hitter than a home run hitter, which could help lessen the blow.

 

Overall I probably wouldn't be thrilled at all with Byrd, and I have no idea how he is defensively, but he technically only has to replace Bradley's .775 OPS (although theres no way he'll reach Bradley's .378 OBP). Assuming Fukudome can hit like he has his first 2 years (mediocre) and an improvement from Soriano, you would expect the OF to perform better on the whole than the 09 outfield, but will it be enough of an improvement to matter?

[MWV]

Over the past 3 years Byrd has been more productive than I had assumed: .289/.351/.472/.823 (113 OPS+)

In fact, when given 400+ ABs, his lowest output as a hitter was .303/.366/.418/.784 at age 25.

 

I (like most people on this board, I believe) was hoping for Cameron, although outside of HRs, Byrd has outperformed Cameron when given full-time ABs (Cameron over the last 3 years: .245/.334/.452/.786 (108+)). Obviously, this assessment neglects Cameron's defensive ability, which is substantial.

Provided Byrd isn't offered an absurd contract, what would people here prefer: Byrd for 3 years ~$18-20 million, or Cameron at the 2 years $15.5 million that Boston gave him?

[fromthestretch]

Over the past 3 years Byrd has been more productive than I had assumed: .289/.351/.472/.823 (113 OPS+)

In fact, when given 400+ ABs, his lowest output as a hitter was .303/.366/.418/.784 at age 25.

 

I (like most people on this board, I believe) was hoping for Cameron, although outside of HRs, Byrd has outperformed Cameron when given full-time ABs (Cameron over the last 3 years: .245/.334/.452/.786 (108+)). Obviously, this assessment neglects Cameron's defensive ability, which is substantial.

Provided Byrd isn't offered an absurd contract, what would people here prefer: Byrd for 3 years ~$18-20 million, or Cameron at the 2 years $15.5 million that Boston gave him?

 

I'd prefer Cameron at the contract he received.