cubsfan26

That's why us fans should be patient and see what the team looks like in spring training. Remember we still have a good amount of money to spend and there's still plenty of good free agents on the market. Personally I would be shocked if this team payroll is below 120-125 million come opening day and still think they will be competitive next season. According to the media this team is rebuilding and next season doesn't matter, but I don't believe that. Are they retooling with a long term version towards the future? Yes and they are willing to trade assets for a high price. But none of the moves they made so far has thrown away next season either. They signed DeJesus which helps next years team, they traded Marshall but got a SP back to pitch in the majors next year. Losing Marshall hurts the pen, but you will like have Cashner there this season and have other good young relievers to fill in. They traded Colvin/LeMahieu but got Ian Stewart to be their third baseman next season. Now they swapped Zambrano who pitched like a back end starter last year and got a back end starter in return to replace him. Both have upside to pitch better due to Zambrano past history and Volstad talent/upside/age. So is the team better? Well you can make a case that the defense has improved with DeJesus and Stewart. You can make a case that the rotation is younger/deeper then last season. While the bullpen might not be as good. It can still be pretty good with Cashner likely taking Marshall spot and Wood to still resign. DeJesus is a upgrade in RF offensivly and you can make a case Stewart could come close to matching Carlos Pena offensive production from last year. Yes so far we added nobody who could replace Ramirez bat yet. But we also don't know yet who is playing first next season yet either. Or if they are going to get rid of Soriano and replace him with a better bat(you gotta hope Soto hits better next season as well). My point is this team hasn't done anything yet to make me think they will suck way worse then 2010-2011 and I think they could even be better. Is better enough to be a playoff team? Probably not unless things really go there way. But I don't see any of this throwing away next year yet, especially when they have money to spend and good free agents still available. Of course we could trade Garza, Soto, Byrd and Marmol and that could all change. But right now that's all media hype and rumors. Plus who says they don't get a young front in starter ready to take over for Garza back in the deal if that does happen? Or don't go out and sign a SP to replace Garza. My point is this off season is still incomplete, they can still go in the direction of adding players to make them better and have the money to do so. I'm sure they will still consider selling off assets for high return. But I believe Theo when he says they aren't going to just punt away next season either. So far none of these off season moves would suggest that (most of players added help next season and beyond) and there still in the position to sign and trade for players who improve the major league team next year. You have to be the most optimistic poster here or you're totally delusional. I'm betting on delusional. That would probably be a bad bet. But it doesn't surprise me to see the veteran posters here at NSBB react the way they do. I been reading this board for a while and I guess some things never change. Like the negativity, overvalue of some players and the flipping out/overreaction of some roster moves. I can't even count some of the quality moves the Cubs made over the years, that the GM's around here flipped out over at first. That said this board does have some good discussions and some smart posters, if you can ignore all the other stuff. All I'm saying is I don't believe Theo/Hoyer are done adding players this off season and the team will be competitive in 2012. I don't think they are in a full rebuild especially when Kaplan and other media people with no inside knowledge are the ones reporting this stuff. I don't think Kaplan understands that you can make any player available for the right price doesn't mean you are going to trade them all and start over. How many times has Theo said they weren't going to punt away the season next year? So they will try to make team competitive and give them a chance to win if a lot goes there way. I guess to a lot of people around here competitive and bad are the same thing. Too me competitive means there's a chance of being good if a few things go your way. Bad is no chance, even if a handful things go your way. Anyways keep in mind that Theo said that the team was in the position to wait out the market this year. There isn't that one player to put them over the top, so they aren't going to go hard after any one player or overpay for anyone. But with potentially 30 million dollars still to spend if they choose too and a lot of good free agents still on the market. I'm confident that they will end up with some players over the next month when the price tags start to go down. I could only imagine how different the tone would be towards next year a month from now. If say the Cubs signed Fielder and Kuroda(1 year deal), traded Soriano while replacing him with Luke Scott(1 year deal) and kept Garza. I'm not crazy and know that's all a long shot to happen. But I think a lot of fans would pull a 180 on their feelings on next years team if that did happen.

That's why us fans should be patient and see what the team looks like in spring training. Remember we still have a good amount of money to spend and there's still plenty of good free agents on the market. Personally I would be shocked if this team payroll is below 120-125 million come opening day and still think they will be competitive next season. According to the media this team is rebuilding and next season doesn't matter, but I don't believe that. Are they retooling with a long term version towards the future? Yes and they are willing to trade assets for a high price. But none of the moves they made so far has thrown away next season either. They signed DeJesus which helps next years team, they traded Marshall but got a SP back to pitch in the majors next year. Losing Marshall hurts the pen, but you will like have Cashner there this season and have other good young relievers to fill in. They traded Colvin/LeMahieu but got Ian Stewart to be their third baseman next season. Now they swapped Zambrano who pitched like a back end starter last year and got a back end starter in return to replace him. Both have upside to pitch better due to Zambrano past history and Volstad talent/upside/age. So is the team better? Well you can make a case that the defense has improved with DeJesus and Stewart. You can make a case that the rotation is younger/deeper then last season. While the bullpen might not be as good. It can still be pretty good with Cashner likely taking Marshall spot and Wood to still resign. DeJesus is a upgrade in RF offensivly and you can make a case Stewart could come close to matching Carlos Pena offensive production from last year. Yes so far we added nobody who could replace Ramirez bat yet. But we also don't know yet who is playing first next season yet either. Or if they are going to get rid of Soriano and replace him with a better bat(you gotta hope Soto hits better next season as well). My point is this team hasn't done anything yet to make me think they will suck way worse then 2010-2011 and I think they could even be better. Is better enough to be a playoff team? Probably not unless things really go there way. But I don't see any of this throwing away next year yet, especially when they have money to spend and good free agents still available. Of course we could trade Garza, Soto, Byrd and Marmol and that could all change. But right now that's all media hype and rumors. Plus who says they don't get a young front in starter ready to take over for Garza back in the deal if that does happen? Or don't go out and sign a SP to replace Garza. My point is this off season is still incomplete, they can still go in the direction of adding players to make them better and have the money to do so. I'm sure they will still consider selling off assets for high return. But I believe Theo when he says they aren't going to just punt away next season either. So far none of these off season moves would suggest that (most of players added help next season and beyond) and there still in the position to sign and trade for players who improve the major league team next year.

Floyd stuff is much better then Randy Wells, just like Garza. I recall many around here saying Garza was only slightly better then Wells a year ago as well. But when you watch them pitch you can tell there's worlds of different in stuff/talent. Plus Floyd is a guy who's numbers across the board should improve by switching leagues(like Garza). With a era lowering to mid 3s, increase in strike outs and a few other things. I wouldn't be against signing Edwin Jackson for the right price(say 3 years at 33 million). But to be honest his 1.40s WHIPs scare me some and 34 of his 64 starts the past two years were in the NL.

Floyd stuff is much better then Randy Wells, just like Garza. I recall many around here saying Garza was only slightly better then Wells a year ago as well. But when you watch them pitch you can tell there's worlds of different in stuff/talent. Plus Floyd is a guy who's numbers across the board should improve by switching leagues(like Garza). With a era lowering to mid 3s, increase in strike outs and a few other things. I wouldn't be against signing Edwin Jackson for the right price(say 3 years at 33 million). But to be honest his 1.40s WHIPs scare me some and 34 of his 64 starts the past two years were in the NL.

I'd have no problem targeting Floyd in the offseason, but I agree we shouldn't give up 3 of our top 10 prospects and Colvin for him. I'd rather pay Wilson a boatload of money and keep the prospects. Floyd has been a 4.5, 4.3 and 3.6 WAR pitcher for the White Sox for the last three years and I believe he would have even more success in the NL(like Garza did). You would have Floyd under contract for 2012 and 2013 as well at a reasonable price(16.5 million). So too get it him it's gonna cost a decent amount. Yeah I know as Cubs fans, we are pretty high on our own prospects. But you also gotta consider how the rest of the league looks at them. McNutt upside is similar to Gavin Floyd, if he fixes his control problems. I know a lot of people are high on Szczur, but keep in mind guys like Kevin Goldstein think his upside is Reed Johnson. So a good starting pitching prospects with big questionmarks, good relief prospect, solid outfield prospect and Colvin who has talent but big strike zone issues that was a major bust last year. Well is that really a lot? Compare that package of Archer, Lee, Chirinos and Guyer for Garza. McNutt value is nowhere near what Archer was, and Szczur value by most isn't what Lee was either. Floyd value isn't as high as Garza and you got Garza for a extra year. So the price should be lesser, but you still have to give up a decent amount to get a guy like Floyd. Personally I would much rather trade those prospects(because I think there upside is limited) to get a guy like Floyd. Then give a guy like CJ Wilson 5 to 6 years at 100 million at age 31. I know Wilson was awesome this past season with the Rangers, especially pitching in that park. But that contract at his age is way too risky for me, and in the long run it could turn into the type of bad money that screwed up this team the past few years. Plus Floyd would only make 9.5 million in 2013, and still put the team in the position to go sign Hamels or Cain to a big contract. If you have a guy like Wilson under a long term big money deal like that, it makes it unlikely that they would add another starting pitcher on a big long term deal the next off season too.

I don't think they should go for it as in "All in". But they should add some key players to make them competitive and set them up to be really good in 2013. Realisticly the Cubs aren't going to go in a full rebuild. No teams do that unless they have too, and a big market team like the Cubs aren't going to do that. So they will have money to spend this off season, it's just gonna come down to what Theo/Hoyer wanna do with it. This is what I would do with it Sign Fielder-Maybe 7 year at 158 million with vesting option for the 8th year. To make it the 8 year at 182 million which is more then Mark Teixeira got. Trade for Gavin Floyd-Maybe Tyler Colvin, Chris Carpenter, Trey McNutt and Ja-Hoon Ha or Matt Szczur get's it done. Kenny Williams has said he wants major league ready players in return. Colvin is the type of player that Kenny Williams would target. With him being a former first round pick, talented but struggling. Carpenter is a guy he would probably think he could slide in the bullpen next year(working with Don Cooper) with Sale going into the rotation. Then he will have guys like McNutt and Hoon Ha or Szczur who are talented prospects. Depending on how you value those prospects we are either overpaying or not giving up enough. Either way I can see those as guys Theo/Hoyer see as expendable. Plus you got Floyd undercontrol with a club option for 2013 as well and I think he would have a lot of success in the NL. Trade Carlos Zambrano- He's not returning to the team, Ricketts wouldn't allow it and most of his teammates want him gone. So the Cubs have no leverage here. So I guess get the best player in return you can and try to save as much money as possible. Sign Edwin Encarnacion 1 year at 3 million, Paul Maholm 2 year at 12 million or Jon Garland at 1 year 5 million-Basically fill out the rest of the roster with guys off the scrap heap on short term deals and try to catch lighting in a bottle. Team SS-Starlin Castro CF-Brett Jackson 1b-Prince Fielder C-Geovany Soto 3B-Edwin Encarnacion RF-Marlon Byrd LF-Alfonso Soriano 2b-Darwin Barney/DJ 1.Matt Garza 2.Gavin Floyd 3.Ryan Dempster 4.Paul Maholm/Jon Garland 5.Randy Wells Pen-Jeff Samardzija, James Russell, Sean Marshall, Kerry Wood, Andrew Cashner, Carlos Marmol Yeah I know that line-up doesn't look very good. But the rotation is solid and bullpen is really good. If they can get good years out of Soto(850+ OPS Soto), Encarnacion(20 HR and 790-800+ OPS) and Jackson(15 HR, 350+ OBP and 800+ OPS).They could be a 85-87 win team and win a potentially weak division. But then next off season you go after Hamels or Cain, and then Kemp or Wright. If you get one of those pitchers and one of those hitters, well now your a World Series contender.

I'm glad this is finally over, I'm curious to who were giving up.

Kaplan broke the story that Kerry Wood was coming back to the Cubs last year. He also reported the Cubs were closing in on a deal for Garza a few days before it happen. Yes Kaplan is stupid, annoying and a big meathead. But he does have some type of inside info, and it's not like him to report stuff that's not true. So of course take this as a grain of salt, but don't totally write it off as nonsense either. Because Kaplan doesn't usually report false nonsense, and when he does make claims like this it's usually true.

Well Russell will get sent down when Lilly is ready around April 19th or so. Then the Cubs could face a tough decision to send either Silva or Gorzelanny to the bullpen. Hopefully it's Silva, but I'm scared they will just replace Russell with Gorzelanny out of the pen. As for Gray, I do think he will be up by mid April though. I think we need to be realistic and realize we have a young pen. So someone out of Samardzija, Russell, Berg and even Caridad(he will probably get a long leash though) is probably going to have some struggles. Not everything is going to go perfect with these guys all doing great. But the good news is we have other good options in Triple A to turn to if that happens. We can go get Gray in April if someone struggles. Or possibly Parker, Stevens or Gaub in May and others. Odds are that out of all the relief options(all of these guys talented enough to be good/solid MLB relievers) we have. That one or two of these guys will step up. Which is why I'm not really worried about the pen like alot of people are. Since if two of these guys pitch well, with Marmol, Grabow and Marshall. The bullpen will be fine. Well If I'm remembering right I believe he had kinda a simliar spring in 08 as he did this year. Where he got off to a hot start and then slowed down alot. So I'm not worried about his spring numbers, and still am very encouraged by the shape he's in. That said I'm fine with him starting the year in the 8th spot. If he hits really well he will be moved up somewere between 5-7. Which is were he hit most of 08. IMO by the end of the season either Soto or Nady will be batting 5th. If Nady is batting 5th, Byrd and Fukudome will be sharing time in CF(also giving Soriano/Nady days off) and batting second. But thats only because I feel Nady will hit somewere close to the way he did in 08. Personally I don't think Soto will ever be as good as he was in 08. But I still think he can be a good 800 plus OPS catcher with good OBP and hit 15 plus HR's.

Wolf being that much better then Looper might be wishful thinking. I guess it depends on his health and what Randy Wolf shows up. Lets not forget that 04-08 Wolf was either mediocre or hurt most of the time. I do agree with you on Davis/Suppan though. I think signing Davis to a 1 year, 5m deal was much better then Wolf deal.

These predictions are really funny, but I like being in this spot. Come June these clowns will be talking about how good the Cubs are, after nobody picked them. It's just funny how a one mediocre season that included tons of injuries and down seasons by good players. Caused everybody to jump off the bandwagon. Now we comeback with probably a better team then we had going into 09, and people are picking us to finsh 3rd-5th? Yet the same core players are here, with some good years left in them, and probably more depth. I will be disappointd if we don't win the division this year, and shocked if we don't finsh at least in second place. I don't see how we can be any worse then we were last year at 83 wins. The pitching will continue to be strong, and we will improve alot offensivly. Ehh maybe Lee having a nice rebound year, and finding Wells. But that still doesn't make up for Ramirez missing half the season. Bradley being a huge bust(on and off the field), four of five starters all spending time on the DL. Soriano/Soto being banged up and bad and then Fontenot struggling after a good 08. There's also that Aaron Miles guy who went from being a 290s-300s hitter the last two seasons, to being by far the worst player in the major leagues last season. So the things that went right don't come close to the things that went wrong, and we still finshed 5 games above 500. The other things you might consider probably even out.

Actually I heard Hendry say that his scouts are now saying they see Colvin as a everyday guy going forward. I don't think they see Colvin as a star. But maybe a 750-800 OPS type guy, who they will probably try to stick in CF. I think if everything goes right for Colvin he becomes a Marlon Byrd type player(750-800 OPS guy who can play all three outfield spots and hit you 10-20 HR's with a batting average between 270-290). But maybe with a little more power and little less OBP.

Well is xFIP was only 4.64 in 2008. So he might have had some bad luck on a bad Mariners team to have a 6.46 era. Last year he was terrible with a 5.53 xFIP, but he was hurt and only had 6 starts in 8 total games too. I'm personally not sold on Silva yet, but I can easily see him being a Jason Marquis like 5th starter. Because thats pretty much what he's been in his career. Even in 2008 Silva had a better xFIP then Marquis. Sure Silva might strike out a little less guys then Marquis, but he also walks alot less. Overall there simliar pitchers who could be really good some games when their sinkers are working. Then when their stuff is only average or bad on some days they will need some help from the defense or luck or they might get bombed. The only thing that worries me about Silva is his work effort and the drive to get better and improve(Ryan Dempsters a different pitcher because of that reason). Marquis I believe worked hard after his 06 season, and was willing to do the extra work to get back on track. I'm not sure Silva really cares all that much, and him coming to camp out of shape kinda shows that. Hopefully the Cubs find away to get him to care and get him to work harder on improving.

Why? He did just fine in 07 getting 19 starts. Marshall pitched well the first month and half as the first 5th starter last year. But basically lost his rotation spot because he was lefthanded. Since they need a LH pitcher out of the pen, and Wells was pitching so well. Sure of course he is going to be a better reliever then starter, most pitchers would be. But he probably has more value as a starter. My one concern is him wearing down after 3 and half to 4 months. Since he's never really pitched many innings in his career(even back in the minors). He's basically the reason why I feel ok about the rotation. Since I think Gorzelanny is the darkhorse guy and guy with the most upside to perform well in the rotation this season. But at the sametime he's been horribly inconsistent the last two years. So he's not someone I want to pencil in the rotation full-time yet. But as long as we have Marshall as a full-time option behind Gorzelanny I feel ok with the rotation. Since I think Gorzelanny as is, can fill in just fine in spot starts. With Marshall being the number 5, and if Marshall starts to wear down we can always find a veteran serviceable number 5 cheap at the deadline or in August. Samardzija is a guy I'm not expecting much from this year. With what the Cubs invested in him, I'm sure he's the guy they would like to see as the number 5. But I guess I need to see it to believe it. As for Silva well again he needs to prove himself, and if he can't be a serviceable Jason Marquis like 5th starter, well then he should be released. But right now I have my fingers crossed that Gorzelanny can have a simliar season as he did in 07. Hopefully working with Rothschild and having veterans like Dempster, Lilly(who simliar up and down years as young pitchers) and even Maddux around during spring training. Will help him get back on track. Which is possible, since he didn't have those type of people around him with the Pirates.

Yikes this is the last place I would want Hill to sign with. Lets hope that Duncan doesn't work his magic on Hill.