Re: Peavy High on Cubs Wish List

[NCCubFan]

I understand that DeRosa won't be as good as he was last year. However, he was a nice insurance policy in the event Bradley is in the doctor's office more often than he is on the field.

Or in the principal's office. :D

[treebird]

this is a really bad offseason if we don't get peavy. we traded a lot of value for junk we think the padres want.

[BigbadB]

2. Season ticket sales. When Peavy gets traded, season ticket sales will drop dramatically. The Hoffman and Greene deals alone don't sound like fire sale in the eyes of Padres fans. Hoffman wasn't nearly as loved as he has been in the past. He's blown a lot of saves over the last few years. Greene wasn't loved so much anymore, either. Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez are the only two guys who Padres fans view as top notch talent. Keeping them gives them a bit of hope. The earlier in the offseason Peavy gets traded, the harder the hit will be to season ticket sales.

 

How many people could possibly be deciding on whether or not they renew/buy seasons tickets based on whether or not Peavy returns? Considering how much talk there has been of a Peavy trade, wouldn't the people most likely to ditch if Peavy is gone have already decided not to buy?

 

Peavy isn't the only factor. The economy by itself is probably going to be a huge factor in what will likely be a huge dropoff in season ticket sales.

 

I've been suggesting ever since the Padres opened up the ballpark downtown that they can no longer play the fire sale game they've played in the past. The ease of access to Qualcomm, the ability to tailgate, the cheaper ticket prices, etc... made it where people didn't mind going to a game as much at Qualcomm.

 

Petco is a whole new ballgame. Difficulty in getting downtown for a game, no tailgaiting and higher ticket prices will not bring people out to see a horrible product on the field.

 

Maybe season ticket sales won't depend on whether Peavy is a Padre or not. I'm just speculating. But, when your starting rotation is Chris Young and a whole bunch of guys Padres fans have never heard of, I think it can definitely hurt more than help.

[Cubswin11]

2. Season ticket sales. When Peavy gets traded, season ticket sales will drop dramatically. The Hoffman and Greene deals alone don't sound like fire sale in the eyes of Padres fans. Hoffman wasn't nearly as loved as he has been in the past. He's blown a lot of saves over the last few years. Greene wasn't loved so much anymore, either. Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez are the only two guys who Padres fans view as top notch talent. Keeping them gives them a bit of hope. The earlier in the offseason Peavy gets traded, the harder the hit will be to season ticket sales.

 

How many people could possibly be deciding on whether or not they renew/buy seasons tickets based on whether or not Peavy returns? Considering how much talk there has been of a Peavy trade, wouldn't the people most likely to ditch if Peavy is gone have already decided not to buy?

 

Peavy isn't the only factor. The economy by itself is probably going to be a huge factor in what will likely be a huge dropoff in season ticket sales.

 

I've been suggesting ever since the Padres opened up the ballpark downtown that they can no longer play the fire sale game they've played in the past. The ease of access to Qualcomm, the ability to tailgate, the cheaper ticket prices, etc... made it where people didn't mind going to a game as much at Qualcomm.

 

Petco is a whole new ballgame. Difficulty in getting downtown for a game, no tailgaiting and higher ticket prices will not bring people out to see a horrible product on the field.

 

Maybe season ticket sales won't depend on whether Peavy is a Padre or not. I'm just speculating. But, when your starting rotation is Chris Young and a whole bunch of guys Padres fans have never heard of, I think it can definitely hurt more than help.

The Padres are already having issues selling tickets and Peavy is still on the team. They are projecting less than 2 million fans this year and season ticket sales are down close to 50% from last year. It's probably due to a combination of the economy and the Padres not fielding a competitive team last year/fans upset they haven't done more to improve the team. Peavy or no Peavy they won't be putting up good attendance numbers, as the fans are already angry with the organization and the only way to put fans in seats, in a bad economic climate, is to have a competitive team. With our without Peavy they won't win more than 70ish games.

 

Sharp declines in Padres season ticket sales could result in home attendance dropping below 2 million for the first time since the 1994 season was cut short by a labor dispute. Season ticket sales were about 15,000 entering the 2008 season. Now they are well below 10,000, creating the potential plummet in attendance.

 

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jan/17/1s17padres221147-season-ticket-sales-plunge/?uniontrib

[BigbadB]

Sharp declines in Padres season ticket sales could result in home attendance dropping below 2 million for the first time since the 1994 season was cut short by a labor dispute. Season ticket sales were about 15,000 entering the 2008 season. Now they are well below 10,000, creating the potential plummet in attendance.

 

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jan/17/1s17padres221147-season-ticket-sales-plunge/?uniontrib

 

This became more true when they made the move to Petco. Qualcomm got decent enough attendance even when the team sucked.

[jersey cubs fan]

Sharp declines in Padres season ticket sales could result in home attendance dropping below 2 million for the first time since the 1994 season was cut short by a labor dispute. Season ticket sales were about 15,000 entering the 2008 season. Now they are well below 10,000, creating the potential plummet in attendance.

 

 

This became more true when they made the move to Petco. Qualcomm got decent enough attendance even when the team sucked.

 

You're always complaining about Petco, but man, I like that place. Wasn't part of the point of Petco to build a little smaller stadium, because the Murph was a huge stale football stadium? From 1990-2003 they were getting between 1.7m-2.5m, with yearly declines from 98-03, closing at just 2.0 million. They've gone up and down in Petco, and had 2.4 million this past year, the low. But my guess is the revenue from the new stadium is much better than what they were getting in the old place. 2.0 million at Petco is worth more than 2.0 at the Murph.

[davearm2]

One aspect of this I find interesting is that back in November and December, we were hearing noise that 3 or perhaps even 4 teams would have to be involved for this deal to happen.

 

Well that number has actually grown to five, considering the Rox, Indians and Orioles have already contributed.

 

Conceivably, Seattle could become a 6th, if there's anything to the Heilman rumors.

[MixmastaMiguel]

I think in the 4 team scenarios, the Padres would have taken both Marquis and Cedeno. But they didn't want to eat any of Marquis' contract so that's where the Rox got involved. And if they truely don't want Cedeno then that's where Seattle comes in. Also I think the Cubs are reluctant to trade Marshall, so they would need to find another MLB read young SP, aka Heilman.

[rocket]

Randy Bush was on XM radio, and he basically laughed off the Peavy trade rumors, saying they're not true.

[UMFan83]

Randy Bush was on XM radio, and he basically laughed off the Peavy trade rumors, saying they're not true.

I doubt he'd say they are true.

[cubsfan26]

this is a really bad offseason if we don't get peavy. we traded a lot of value for junk we think the padres want.

 

 

With or without Peavy it's not a bad offseason, let alone a really bad offseason. In a offseason were very teams actually improved, and most teams got worse we really didn't do that bad. We downgraded a little in the pen and depth wise, but upgraded in the outfield. As long as Fontenot is solid, and a reliever like Gaudin, Guzman or Samardzija steps up were not really gonna miss a beat. Losing Torres, Sabathia and Sheets and replacing them with Trevor Hoffman is a really bad offseason. The only team in the NL you can say really improved alot is the Braves, and they probably still didn't improve enough to win that division. The Mets will be better with Putz/Rodriguez(had Wagner to August last year), but their SP and Delgado numbers dropping off could erase that improvement.

 

 

 

 

I still believe we will add another starting pitcher, Peavy or no Peavy. But it doesn't hurt to have pitching prospects like Olson, Archer and Stevens around to use in trades during the season either(maybe for Peavy). I doubt the Padres are the only team that likes those pitchers. If Ricketts/Zell can agree to terms in the next few weeks I think Peavy can still be a Cub before opening day. I don't think Hendry or the Cubs will wait for MLB approval, and once the agreement is there Hendry will get the ok or not. But even if we don't get Peavy before opening day, we're still in a good spot to make a big trade during the season.

[jersey cubs fan]

In a offseason were very teams actually improved, and most teams got worse

 

Is that even possible?

[CubinNY]

Sharp declines in Padres season ticket sales could result in home attendance dropping below 2 million for the first time since the 1994 season was cut short by a labor dispute. Season ticket sales were about 15,000 entering the 2008 season. Now they are well below 10,000, creating the potential plummet in attendance.

 

 

This became more true when they made the move to Petco. Qualcomm got decent enough attendance even when the team sucked.

 

You're always complaining about Petco, but man, I like that place.

 

No smoking rules.

 

I liked Petco too. Great sight lines and mostly good seats anywhere. The gaslight district is nice, but pricey.

[cubsfan26]

In a offseason were very teams actually improved, and most teams got worse

 

Is that even possible?

 

You wouldn't think so, but look at the NL teams especially the contending ones and there wasn't much improvement at all. The Dodgers lost Lowe and Manny as of right now. The Brewers lost Sabathia, Torres and Sheets as of right now(added just Hoffman). The Phillies swapped Burrell for Ibanez, Utley could miss the first month or two, and Romero is suspended for the first 50 games I believe.

 

 

 

The Diamondbacks lost Hudson, Dunn, Johnson, Cruz, Lyon and only added Felipe Lopez. The Reds added Willy Taveras? The Cardinals only added Khalil Greene, Trever Miller, but lost Looper and Miles. The Astros lost Randy Wolf, Ty Wigginton and replaced them with Mike Hampton and Aaron Boone. The Rockies traded away Holliday, the Marlins traded away players, and that Nationals/Pirates/Giants still suck. So other then the Braves and possibly the Mets, nobody has really done much in the NL. Of course the Yankees, Indians, Rays and A's have improved in the AL, but thats still not really alot of teams. There's still alot of free agents out there, but as of right now I don't see how these teams have gotten better. So the Cubs have had a solid offseason all things considered, and I still think we will add another player or two.

[jersey cubs fan]

In a offseason were very teams actually improved, and most teams got worse

 

Is that even possible?

 

You wouldn't think so, but look at the NL teams especially the contending ones and there wasn't much improvement at all. The Dodgers lost Lowe and Manny as of right now. The Brewers lost Sabathia, Torres and Sheets as of right now(added just Hoffman). The Phillies swapped Burrell for Ibanez, Utley could miss the first month or two, and Romero is suspended for the first 50 games I believe.

 

 

 

The Diamondbacks lost Hudson, Dunn, Johnson, Cruz, Lyon and only added Felipe Lopez. The Reds added Willy Taveras? The Cardinals only added Khalil Greene, Trever Miller, but lost Looper and Miles. The Astros lost Randy Wolf, Ty Wigginton and replaced them with Mike Hampton and Aaron Boone. The Rockies traded away Holliday, the Marlins traded away players, and that Nationals/Pirates/Giants still suck. So other then the Braves and possibly the Mets, nobody has really done much in the NL. Of course the Yankees, Indians, Rays and A's have improved in the AL, but thats still not really alot of teams. There's still alot of free agents out there, but as of right now I don't see how these teams have gotten better. So the Cubs have had a solid offseason all things considered, and I still think we will add another player or two.

 

I think the Cubs have taken a small step back as of right now. They're probably going to win the division still, but I don't see how the offseason has been solid. There's been significant movement, but not a lot of improvment.

[cubsfan26]

I still think it's extremely strange that we traded DeRosa, and for the players we traded him for. Now we are apparently shopping for a utility IF with some of the supposed "9 million" we have left to spend.

 

 

That could tell you that the Cubs made the move because they wanted Fontenot to get 400 plus AB's next year. For that to happen next year Bradley would have to miss most of the season, and if the Cubs thought that was gonna happen they wouldn't have signed him. Keep in mind Fontenot only got so many AB's at 2b last year because Soriano only played in 109 games due to that freak HBP injury. IF Bradley some how plays in 110-120 games(like the Cubs believe he will), Fontenot wouldn't have gotten that many more AB's unless he was playing SS and 3rd. Personally I don't think Fontenot would have done well at those postions, Lou tried him at SS and 3rd in spring last year, and never used him their during the season.

[BigbadB]

Sharp declines in Padres season ticket sales could result in home attendance dropping below 2 million for the first time since the 1994 season was cut short by a labor dispute. Season ticket sales were about 15,000 entering the 2008 season. Now they are well below 10,000, creating the potential plummet in attendance.

 

 

This became more true when they made the move to Petco. Qualcomm got decent enough attendance even when the team sucked.

 

You're always complaining about Petco, but man, I like that place. Wasn't part of the point of Petco to build a little smaller stadium, because the Murph was a huge stale football stadium? From 1990-2003 they were getting between 1.7m-2.5m, with yearly declines from 98-03, closing at just 2.0 million. They've gone up and down in Petco, and had 2.4 million this past year, the low. But my guess is the revenue from the new stadium is much better than what they were getting in the old place. 2.0 million at Petco is worth more than 2.0 at the Murph.

 

I'm not complaining at all about Petco. Reread my post. I like the park. There are great seats all over the stadium. It is a nice park. I personally don't like the non smoking thing, but my post wasn't about me. It's about the biggest percentage of Padres fans I know. They were very comfortable with tailgating before games. The convenience of Qualcomm's location made it a decent ride no matter what part of the county you lived in. The price was always better at Qualcomm.

 

Petco's location downtown is a major pain in the ass. Whether they are coming from Encinitas, Oceanside, Escondido, Poway, El Cajon or Eastlake, the drive is a good half an hour just to get to the ramps that lead downtown. Then you hit the parking lot, which are all the roads leading down to the park. Then you pay $20-$30 for a parking place wherever you can find a spot to park. You are battling all the other people who come downtown to eat dinner, see a show, etc.....

 

Tailgating isn't allowed. Me? I could care less about tailgating. But, that's what people did when they got off work, rather than drive all the way home.

 

What I've been saying about the Padres needing to field a competitive team is exactly that. If they don't, their attendance will suffer like they've never seen it suffer before. I may end up being wrong, but I suppose we will see this year. Last year's offseason is too hard to gauge, since they were coming off a winning season and lost out on a playoff spot to Colorado in a one game playoff. If fans knew how quickly they would hit rock bottom, their season ticket sales would have taken a huge hit last year. This is the year we will see the full effect of being a sucky team.

 

I'd be happy to make a friendly wager with you that Petco's attendance will be worse than any season they put up of the year's you listed at Qualcomm.

[cubsfan26]

In a offseason were very teams actually improved, and most teams got worse

 

Is that even possible?

 

You wouldn't think so, but look at the NL teams especially the contending ones and there wasn't much improvement at all. The Dodgers lost Lowe and Manny as of right now. The Brewers lost Sabathia, Torres and Sheets as of right now(added just Hoffman). The Phillies swapped Burrell for Ibanez, Utley could miss the first month or two, and Romero is suspended for the first 50 games I believe.

 

 

 

The Diamondbacks lost Hudson, Dunn, Johnson, Cruz, Lyon and only added Felipe Lopez. The Reds added Willy Taveras? The Cardinals only added Khalil Greene, Trever Miller, but lost Looper and Miles. The Astros lost Randy Wolf, Ty Wigginton and replaced them with Mike Hampton and Aaron Boone. The Rockies traded away Holliday, the Marlins traded away players, and that Nationals/Pirates/Giants still suck. So other then the Braves and possibly the Mets, nobody has really done much in the NL. Of course the Yankees, Indians, Rays and A's have improved in the AL, but thats still not really alot of teams. There's still alot of free agents out there, but as of right now I don't see how these teams have gotten better. So the Cubs have had a solid offseason all things considered, and I still think we will add another player or two.

 

I think the Cubs have taken a small step back as of right now. They're probably going to win the division still, but I don't see how the offseason has been solid. There's been significant movement, but not a lot of improvment.

 

 

Well sometimes half the battle is to stay a good team, and we don't really know how these moves will work out yet. Plus With the way that team choked in the playoffs the last two years, I don't think it was a bad idea to shake some things up a bit. We could have brought back the same team, and not had the same success due to health or players decline. If Wood misses 2 or 3 months next year and Gregg does well that looks like a very good move. If Fontenot/Miles platoon comes close to matching DeRosa production, that looks like a smart move. If Bradley has a 870-900 OPS and plays in 110 games or more, that looks like a good move.

 

 

 

If Jason Marquis blows up, like he did in 06 in a free agent year, that looks like a smart move. In all honestly it's pretty hard to improve a 97 win team, I'm happy being at a simliar level again. Especially when most of the other teams have gotten worse. So when you consider were still one of the better teams in the NL, and there's still a big gap between the Cubs and the rest of the division. I gotta say it was still a pretty solid offseason. Yes on paper we might have taken a small step back, but most of the NL has, especially in our division. I think Peavy would make us better then the 08 Cubs on paper, but I think it's kinda dramtic to say if we don't get Peavy the offseason is horrible, but if we do get him it was a great offseason.

[DiamondMind]

It really does feel like most teams in baseball got worse. I don't know if end season W/L records will (or can) reflect that, but it's definitely how I'm perceiving things right now. In most cases it seems the money is simply not there to improve teams.

[SouthSideRyan]

It really does feel like most teams in baseball got worse. I don't know if end season W/L records will (or can) reflect that, but it's definitely how I'm perceiving things right now. In most cases it seems the money is simply not there to improve teams.

 

Probably because there are a lot of free agents that haven't signed anywhere yet.

[abuck1220]

cubs should sign ty wigginton.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yes on paper we might have taken a small step back, but most of the NL has, especially in our division.

 

Who, aside from Milwaukee, has taken a step back? Did Cincy, Houston, Pitt or STL really lose anybody?

[CubinNY]

STL really lose anybody?

Aaron Miles, he saved them last year.

 

That's a win/win in my book.

[cubsfan26]

Yes on paper we might have taken a small step back, but most of the NL has, especially in our division.

 

Who, aside from Milwaukee, has taken a step back? Did Cincy, Houston, Pitt or STL really lose anybody?

 

 

Well the Astros did lose Ty Wigginton who was a 285/350/876 hitter last year. I also wouldn't discount Randy Wolf 6-2, 3.57 era in 12 starts for them last year. They replaced those guys with Aaron Bonne and old Mike Hampton. The Pirates might not have taken a step back, but they haven't really taken a step forward especially when you consider they had Bay and Nady for half of last season. Pretty much the same for the Reds, but they don't have Griffey/Dunn for half the season this year. The Cardinals did lose Looper and Miles did give them good production last year. Even with Greene possibly be being better next year, plus I doubt Wellemeyer or Ludwick are as good next year.

[dlocks]

I just wanted to post in this thread. Thats all.