Re: Peavy High on Cubs Wish List

[mcgoobs]

According to Levine, Peavy would cost them Jeff Stevens, Garrett Olson, Josh Vitters (although the Cubs do not want to trade him), Kevin Hart and Welington Castillo.

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2009/01/cubsrumor012409.php

I personally don't think that is a lot to give up.

 

Vitters- Still at least 2-3 years away and not a sure thing, we are in a win now mode and by the time he could arrive we might not be a contender

Olson- Likely a bullpen guy/spot starter at best with the Cubs this year, Marshall is better and would start the season in the rotation.

Stevens- Good minor league numbers, but doesn't have overwhelming stuff and it might not translate to the majors. Bullpen guys are a dime a dozen.

Hart- See Stevens

Castillo- Blocked by Soto, probably 2-3 years away as well, wouldn't more than a backup with Soto around might as well trade him while he still has value/perceived potential to get better.

 

Overall I think that's a fair trade it would suck giving up Vitters but you need to give up quality to get it. I agree that with Sheets still out there we should look into it, if he is willing to take 1@8-12 or 2@16-20 it might be smarter to sign him and keep the prospects. Sheets is just as good as Peavy. Also I found it interesting that bit about Cedeno for Heilman. Heilman wouldn't be a bad guy to add to the bullpen/spot start.

 

Hendry needs to take into account what he thinks he could get for those prospects in a separate trade if he signed Sheets.

Peavy vs Sheets straight up is pretty clearly in favor of Peavy given the injury history of Sheets. Peavy vs Sheets + midseason acquisition that could beef up the outfield should Fukudome flame out, or cover an injury to one of our other key players isn't as clearly in favor of Peavy.

[CUBZ99]

According to Levine, Peavy would cost them Jeff Stevens, Garrett Olson, Josh Vitters (although the Cubs do not want to trade him), Kevin Hart and Welington Castillo.

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2009/01/cubsrumor012409.php

 

Is Levine just speculating or is he reporting that trade discussions have picked up again, and that is the offer on the table?

 

If that is the offer, I can't see Hendry turning it down. Its basically Vitters + a bunch of spare parts for Peavy. I would hate to trade Vitters, but for all we know he could injure his hand again or flame out at the higher levels. If the Cubs goal is to win now, its a risk worth taking.

[Burtonbell]

According to Levine, Peavy would cost them Jeff Stevens, Garrett Olson, Josh Vitters (although the Cubs do not want to trade him), Kevin Hart and Welington Castillo.

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2009/01/cubsrumor012409.php

 

Is Levine just speculating or is he reporting that trade discussions have picked up again, and that is the offer on the table?

 

If that is the offer, I can't see Hendry turning it down. Its basically Vitters + a bunch of spare parts for Peavy. I would hate to trade Vitters, but for all we know he could injure his hand again or flame out at the higher levels. If the Cubs goal is to win now, its a risk worth taking.

 

Sounds like speculation to me. I would be all in on a deal like that though.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i'd say an increase of 5-10% chance each of the years is significant. we'd go from about an 18% chance to somewhere close to 25% each season. That's gigantic. your concept of marginal value is completely wrong.

 

You think one, single pitcher (who wasn't even that great last season in terms of total value) is worth 1/14th of a championship every season to this team? That's insanity. That's Khalil Greene-territory.

[Backtobanks]

I would love to have Peavy, but getting Sheets for 2/$22 million with a club option for a 3rd year might be better than getting Peavy, assuming Sheets can pass a physical. Trade Cedeno and Wuertz for Heilman.

Rotation:

Zambrano (30+ starts)

Dempster (30+ starts)

Lilly (30+ starts)

Harden (20+ starts)

Sheets (20+ starts)

Marshall (10-20 starts)

Heilman (10-20 starts)

Other possibilities- Gaudin, Shark, prospects

Looks like we would have it covered assuming no major injuries.

[Shilzzz]

I wouldn't expect 20+ starts from either Sheets or Harden.

[Derwood]

I wouldn't expect 20+ starts from either Sheets or Harden.

 

Sheets has had less than 20 starts just once in 8 years

[cubswin2009]

I'm not giving up Marshall and Vitters in a trade for Peavy.

[inari]

I'm not giving up Marshall and Vitters in a trade for Peavy.

 

Well, that's silly.

[Magnetic Curses]

marshall is not any good and vitters may not be.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

marshall is not any good and vitters may not be.

 

It's more complicated than that.

 

Peavy might not be either, and you have to consider the opportunity cost of what else you could get down the road for those prospects and that payroll space.

[cubbinalltheway]

marshall is not any good

lol, what? that's a pretty ridiculous thing to say.

[RammyFanny]

Last Monday Hamilton reported the deal for Peavy could be a 4-for-1 or 5-for-1 and he described the possible trade as a "pitching-heavy deal" that included Sean Marshall, Garrett Olson, Kevin Hart and Jeff Stevens but would not involve Josh Vitters.

 

Sunday afternoon Lee Hamilton reported the deal for Peavy would be 4-for-1 and would include Josh Vitters, Sean Marshall, Garrett Olson and Kevin Hart. Hamilton also reported the Angels are talking to the Padres about Jake Peavy.

 

According to Lee Hamilton, the Angels would send Jered Weaver, Nick Adenhart, Brandon Wood and Reggie Willits to San Diego for Jake Peavy. Reportedly Jake Peavy wants to remain in the National League and the Angels were not on the list of teams Peavy would approve a trade to....

 

Hamilton stated, "Reports out here on the West Coast are saying Jake Peavy will be a Cub by Opening Day."

 

The never-ending Jake Peavy rumors have surpassed the 'Winter of Roberts'.

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2009/01/cubsrumors12509.php

[RynoRules]

marshall is not any good and vitters may not be.

 

It's more complicated than that.

 

Peavy might not be either, and you have to consider the opportunity cost of what else you could get down the road for those prospects and that payroll space.

 

Did you just compare Peavy to Marshall and Vitters? Please tell me you didn't....

[imb]

i wonder who will be the topic of next year's 200-page trade target thread

[Butterscup1679666578]

i wonder who will be the topic of next year's 200-page trade target thread

 

hanley ramirez?

[Butterscup1679666578]

I really wouldn't like giving up Marshall AND Olson in the same deal, but it's not a deal breaker.

[RedFlash]

I really wouldn't like giving up Marshall AND Olson in the same deal, but it's not a deal breaker.

 

Agreed, but if the Padres are asking for a 5-1 deal that includes Vitters AND Marshall/Olson, then I would like a B prospect to accompany Peavy in the deal. It's not a deal breaker, but if I was Hendry I would hold off including BOTH lefties in the deal.

[Tracer Bullet]

i wonder who will be the topic of next year's 200-page trade target thread

 

hanley ramirez?

 

I hope not. The 200-page targets never get acquired.

[Mephistopheles]

i'd say an increase of 5-10% chance each of the years is significant. we'd go from about an 18% chance to somewhere close to 25% each season. That's gigantic. your concept of marginal value is completely wrong.

 

You think one, single pitcher (who wasn't even that great last season in terms of total value) is worth 1/14th of a championship every season to this team? That's insanity. That's Khalil Greene-territory.

 

Not really. Let's just do a rough take on the situation. For now let's make a couple relative assumptions.

 

1.) Without Peavy the Cubs have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.

2.) With Peavy the Cubs have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.

3.) Rich Harden is able to make one start in the NLDS with or without Peavy

4.) Cubs starts in a 7 game series w/o Peavy: 2 for Z, 2 for Demp, 2 for Lilly, 1 for Harden.

5.) Cubs starts in a 7 game series w/ Peavy: 2 for Z, 2 for Peavy, 1 for Demp, Lilly and Harden.

6.) The Cubs offense coupled with pitching staff #4 is an average team faced in rounds 2 and 3 of a hypothetical playoff.

7.) The Cubs offense coupled with pitching staff #3 w/o Peavy is an average team faced in round 1 of a hypothetical playoff.

8.) The Cubs offense is a 5.00 runs per 9 innings offense. That's ~825 run offense.

9.) The career SP-RA is to be used for each starting pitcher.

10.) We're slotting the Cubs bullpen as a 3.00 RA bullpen in the 9th inning, 3.50 in the 8th, 4.00 in the 7th and 4.50 in the 1-6th.

 

Obviously, since we're assuming that the Cubs without Jake Peavy are an average playoff team, the Cubs chances of winning the World Series under these assumptions is 12.5%. How about once we trade for Jake Peavy? Well we go ~98 win team to a ~105 win team, once you make the proper adjustments. Our chances of wining the World Series improve to 21.4%. Nearly a nine percent increase in this model.

 

If we make the same assumptions for 2010 and 2011, which is of course a big assumption unlike the ones I've already made, then the chances we go title-less in the three years without Peavy is over two-thirds but if we trade for Peavy, we're better than a coin flip bet to win at least one title the next three years.

 

I don't know about you, but I like those odds. I like them very much.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Actually, though I have no way of checking those numbers, that argument makes a ton of sense.

 

I'm pretty skeptical of the way playoff odds are calculated, but otherwise, I'm sold.

 

Tell Jim Hendry he can trade for Peavy now, KyleJRM approves.

Edited January 26, 2009 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Cubswin11]

Last Monday Hamilton reported the deal for Peavy could be a 4-for-1 or 5-for-1 and he described the possible trade as a "pitching-heavy deal" that included Sean Marshall, Garrett Olson, Kevin Hart and Jeff Stevens but would not involve Josh Vitters.

 

Sunday afternoon Lee Hamilton reported the deal for Peavy would be 4-for-1 and would include Josh Vitters, Sean Marshall, Garrett Olson and Kevin Hart. Hamilton also reported the Angels are talking to the Padres about Jake Peavy.

 

According to Lee Hamilton, the Angels would send Jered Weaver, Nick Adenhart, Brandon Wood and Reggie Willits to San Diego for Jake Peavy. Reportedly Jake Peavy wants to remain in the National League and the Angels were not on the list of teams Peavy would approve a trade to....

 

Hamilton stated, "Reports out here on the West Coast are saying Jake Peavy will be a Cub by Opening Day."

 

The never-ending Jake Peavy rumors have surpassed the 'Winter of Roberts'.

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2009/01/cubsrumors12509.php

That's a pretty impressive package, that beats just about anything the Cubs can do without going crazy like a 6-1 or 7-2 deal.

 

"pitching-heavy deal" that included Sean Marshall, Garrett Olson, Kevin Hart and Jeff Stevens but would not involve Josh Vitters.

Even though it would suck to lose the depth in the rotation/bullpen I would prefer trading Marshall and Olson if it meant we could hold onto Vitters. We could then trade Cedeno/Wuertz for Heilman or sign a guy like Livan Hernandez, Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, Odalis Perez, or Chuck James to be the swingman.

[17 Seconds]

Last Monday Hamilton reported the deal for Peavy could be a 4-for-1 or 5-for-1 and he described the possible trade as a "pitching-heavy deal" that included Sean Marshall, Garrett Olson, Kevin Hart and Jeff Stevens but would not involve Josh Vitters.

 

Sunday afternoon Lee Hamilton reported the deal for Peavy would be 4-for-1 and would include Josh Vitters, Sean Marshall, Garrett Olson and Kevin Hart. Hamilton also reported the Angels are talking to the Padres about Jake Peavy.

 

According to Lee Hamilton, the Angels would send Jered Weaver, Nick Adenhart, Brandon Wood and Reggie Willits to San Diego for Jake Peavy. Reportedly Jake Peavy wants to remain in the National League and the Angels were not on the list of teams Peavy would approve a trade to....

 

Hamilton stated, "Reports out here on the West Coast are saying Jake Peavy will be a Cub by Opening Day."

 

The never-ending Jake Peavy rumors have surpassed the 'Winter of Roberts'.

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2009/01/cubsrumors12509.php

That's a pretty impressive package, that beats just about anything the Cubs can do without going crazy like a 6-1 or 7-2 deal.

 

Once you get by the names, that package really as great as it sounds.

[Post Count Padder]

Last Monday Hamilton reported the deal for Peavy could be a 4-for-1 or 5-for-1 and he described the possible trade as a "pitching-heavy deal" that included Sean Marshall, Garrett Olson, Kevin Hart and Jeff Stevens but would not involve Josh Vitters.

 

Sunday afternoon Lee Hamilton reported the deal for Peavy would be 4-for-1 and would include Josh Vitters, Sean Marshall, Garrett Olson and Kevin Hart. Hamilton also reported the Angels are talking to the Padres about Jake Peavy.

 

According to Lee Hamilton, the Angels would send Jered Weaver, Nick Adenhart, Brandon Wood and Reggie Willits to San Diego for Jake Peavy. Reportedly Jake Peavy wants to remain in the National League and the Angels were not on the list of teams Peavy would approve a trade to....

 

Hamilton stated, "Reports out here on the West Coast are saying Jake Peavy will be a Cub by Opening Day."

 

The never-ending Jake Peavy rumors have surpassed the 'Winter of Roberts'.

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2009/01/cubsrumors12509.php

If the Angels seriously make that offer, then I guess we're looking at other options. No way any other team would be able to beat that. Yes, yes, Peavy can block a trade but I think he said he'd go to the Angels.

[17 Seconds]

Weren't the Padres emphatic about getting a pitching heavy deal though.. or was that just if it was with the Cubs?

 

Either way, we shouldn't really be putting much, if any, stock into what that guy said. I've never even heard of him and he was clearly way off with the first package he mentioned with the Cubs.