MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[Sweet Swinging Billy]

Bummer, still no deal. Just a bunch of worthless talk on where Soriano should hit in the line- up.

[RedFlash]

I'm tired of arguing, give me baseball, even exhibition baseball.....something that will bring us Cubs fan back together, united.

 

How about we laugh at the Cards, can we agree on that?

[BCVM22]

How about we laugh at the Cards, can we agree on that?

 

Juan Gonzalez on a minor league contract. Hilarious.

[Bote McBoteface]

How about we laugh at the Cards, can we agree on that?

 

LOL, Cardinals.

[Yestheydo]

Does anyone think the plan is for Theriot/ Roberts at the top of the order? It would go something like this:

 

Step 1: We got Roberts! A top leadoff hitter to get Soriano to move down in the order!

 

Step 2: But who will bat second? Why, Theriot of course! For he is so very speedy!

 

Step 3: But looky at all them righties in a row! How bout we just switch them two, Soriano won't even notice, all them white boys look alike!

 

Step 4: Fukudome and Lee bat 5th and 6th, NSBB erupts daily.

 

Thank you Andy MacPhail, for holding out. Let this thing just go away.

[CubsGM]

Bigbird is talking again, for anyone who is interested:

 

It's my understanding that in addition to Gallagher, Cedeno and Murton we've asked for one of 2 players to be included. If one is there will be a deal. If not Roberts will remain an O.

 

Someone asked if the two in question might be Colvin and Veal and he replied

 

Nope!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

 

For the love of Cubs fan sanity, PLEASE Hendry back the heck away. There is no way Brian Roberts is worth more then two solid young players, much less 4 players.

Hendry would be crucified if he made that trade.

This trade will happen when :pig:

[wrigley23]

"Do you have the PbP data to back up how often your hypothetical scenario happens or are you just pulling it out your ass and hoping we'll accept it as fact?"

 

Here's your fact & the one that really matters...sori's obp was 40 pts less than roberts last year. 377 vs 337. fact #2: soriano's slugging was .560 vs .432 showing that the extra base hitter would be in position to hit the guy in that gets on base more often. Soriano had a career low 19 steals last year so it's not like he is going to beat out as many ground balls or successfully steal as much as roberts who stole 50 bases a year ago in the american league that is not as much of a base stealing league as the nl. Finally...you need a patient hitter in the leadoff position. Soriano struck out 22% of at bats fanning a whopping 130 times in the leadoff position. Roberts whiffed 31 less times while walking 89 times to the oh-so-patient Soriano's 31. Soriano & his telephone pole haven't seen too many pitches they didn't like...ala Shawon Dunston circa 1988.

[Rob]

"Do you have the PbP data to back up how often your hypothetical scenario happens or are you just pulling it out your ass and hoping we'll accept it as fact?"

 

Here's your fact & the one that really matters...sori's obp was 40 pts less than roberts last year. 377 vs 337. fact #2: soriano's slugging was .560 vs .432 showing that the extra base hitter would be in position to hit the guy in that gets on base more often. Soriano had a career low 19 steals last year so it's not like he is going to beat out as many ground balls or successfully steal as much as roberts who stole 50 bases a year ago in the american league that is not as much of a base stealing league as the nl. Finally...you need a patient hitter in the leadoff position. Soriano struck out 22% of at bats fanning a whopping 130 times in the leadoff position. Roberts whiffed 31 less times while walking 89 times to the oh-so-patient Soriano's 31. Soriano & his telephone pole haven't seen too many pitches they didn't like...ala Shawon Dunston circa 1988.

 

Do statistics only apply up to the point where you still understand their function? I ask because you keep trying to use objective analysis, and start out with the stats... but your method quickly diverges to pointless rhetoric and opinion.

[David]

Does anyone think the plan is for Theriot/ Roberts at the top of the order? It would go something like this:

 

Step 1: We got Roberts! A top leadoff hitter to get Soriano to move down in the order!

 

Step 2: But who will bat second? Why, Theriot of course! For he is so very speedy!

 

Step 3: But looky at all them righties in a row! How bout we just switch them two, Soriano won't even notice, all them white boys look alike!

 

Step 4: Fukudome and Lee bat 5th and 6th, NSBB erupts daily.

 

Thank you Andy MacPhail, for holding out. Let this thing just go away.

 

Theriot is slated to hit #2 right now, anyway.

 

Not sure what you're saying in the rest of it. Who bats 3rd in your joke scenario?

[WilcoFan]

There need to be some basic premises for any argument so as to avoid the (justified) ridicule of someone:

 

1. Simply because something is accepted by the bulk of the baseball community does NOT make it inherently the right choice. Most baseball people ignored OBP until the last 5-7 years. Most people making decisions in baseball got into the league through luck, previous experience as a player, or the right connections. By no means does this guarantee they have any ability to judge the game in a superior way to anyone else.

 

2. Hypotheticals are not factual, nor should they ever be used to "prove" something.

 

3. Statistics require a valid sample size.

 

If these rules were adhered to, this discussion could at least have some level of common ground.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

 

Here's your fact & the one that really matters...sori's obp was 40 pts less than roberts last year. 377 vs 337.

 

It's not the only fact that matters. It's one of many that are important. But basing things on one season of data isn't a great idea. In 2006, Soriano had a 351 OBP to Roberts's 347. It's not a certainty that Roberts will get on base more often than Soriano.

 

fact #2: soriano's slugging was .560 vs .432 showing that the extra base hitter would be in position to hit the guy in that gets on base more often.

That's not all it shows. It also means, that if Soriano is leading off, he is able to get himself to scoring position via HR, triple, or double more often than Roberts. That in itself is a value.

 

Soriano had a career low 19 steals last year so it's not like he is going to beat out as many ground balls or successfully steal as much as roberts who stole 50 bases a year ago in the american league that is not as much of a base stealing league as the nl.

 

The beating out of ground balls is already figured into each players' performance in OBP and BA, and we've already dealt with that point. It adds nothing. As far as stolen bases, Roberts's 50 of last season out performed his career best by 14. It's quite possible that he'll only steal 35 or so which is much closer to what he's done his whole career. That would be very close to Soriano's career average. And even if the leg injuries suffered by Soriano last season have lingered and he steals only 20-25, the added doubles, triples, and homers still put him a greater liklihood of scoring than Roberts.

 

Finally...you need a patient hitter in the leadoff position. Soriano struck out 22% of at bats fanning a whopping 130 times in the leadoff position. Roberts whiffed 31 less times while walking 89 times to the oh-so-patient Soriano's 31. Soriano & his telephone pole haven't seen too many pitches they didn't like...ala Shawon Dunston circa 1988.

 

Patience isn't really measured by K-rates. You would need to look at p/pa if you want to make that argument. Roberts does do that better than Soriano as his p/pa for 2007 was 4.20 and Soriano's was 3.67. That also was a career high for Roberts. His avg most seasons has been around 3.95 or so, and Soriano is usually around what he did last season. While it is an edge for Roberts, it isn't a great one.

 

While Roberts will make the team better, it isn't because he's a better option at lead-off than Soriano is. The Cubs don't need a lead-off hitter. They might need more good hitters.

[killthegoat06]

 

Here's your fact & the one that really matters...sori's obp was 40 pts less than roberts last year. 377 vs 337.

 

It's not the only fact that matters. It's one of many that are important. But basing things on one season of data isn't a great idea. In 2006, Soriano had a 351 OBP to Roberts's 347. It's not a certainty that Roberts will get on base more often than Soriano.

 

fact #2: soriano's slugging was .560 vs .432 showing that the extra base hitter would be in position to hit the guy in that gets on base more often.

That's not all it shows. It also means, that if Soriano is leading off, he is able to get himself to scoring position via HR, triple, or double more often than Roberts. That in itself is a value.

 

Soriano had a career low 19 steals last year so it's not like he is going to beat out as many ground balls or successfully steal as much as roberts who stole 50 bases a year ago in the american league that is not as much of a base stealing league as the nl.

 

The beating out of ground balls is already figured into each players' performance in OBP and BA, and we've already dealt with that point. It adds nothing. As far as stolen bases, Roberts's 50 of last season out performed his career best by 14. It's quite possible that he'll only steal 35 or so which is much closer to what he's done his whole career. That would be very close to Soriano's career average. And even if the leg injuries suffered by Soriano last season have lingered and he steals only 20-25, the added doubles, triples, and homers still put him a greater liklihood of scoring than Roberts.

 

Finally...you need a patient hitter in the leadoff position. Soriano struck out 22% of at bats fanning a whopping 130 times in the leadoff position. Roberts whiffed 31 less times while walking 89 times to the oh-so-patient Soriano's 31. Soriano & his telephone pole haven't seen too many pitches they didn't like...ala Shawon Dunston circa 1988.

 

Patience isn't really measured by K-rates. You would need to look at p/pa if you want to make that argument. Roberts does do that better than Soriano as his p/pa for 2007 was 4.20 and Soriano's was 3.67. That also was a career high for Roberts. His avg most seasons has been around 3.95 or so, and Soriano is usually around what he did last season. While it is an edge for Roberts, it isn't a great one.

 

While Roberts will make the team better, it isn't because he's a better option at lead-off than Soriano is. The Cubs don't need a lead-off hitter. They might need more good hitters.

PWNED

[Yestheydo]

Does anyone think the plan is for Theriot/ Roberts at the top of the order? It would go something like this:

 

Step 1: We got Roberts! A top leadoff hitter to get Soriano to move down in the order!

 

Step 2: But who will bat second? Why, Theriot of course! For he is so very speedy!

 

Step 3: But looky at all them righties in a row! How bout we just switch them two, Soriano won't even notice, all them white boys look alike!

 

Step 4: Fukudome and Lee bat 5th and 6th, NSBB erupts daily.

 

Thank you Andy MacPhail, for holding out. Let this thing just go away.

 

Theriot is slated to hit #2 right now, anyway.

 

Not sure what you're saying in the rest of it. Who bats 3rd in your joke scenario?

 

Theriot may be slated to hit second, but most people seem to be assuming the goal is to move him to the bottom of the lineup, even though there's little evidence to suggest Piniella feels that way. Soriano (hypothetically) would bat third, in an attempt to placate him by letting him see lots of fastballs in front of Ramirez, and also because he's pretty speedy his own self.

[David]

Ah, gotcha.

[Derwood]

"Breaking ball in the dirt (strike 1 swinging)

Fastball 2 feet over his head (strike 2 swinging)

Breaking ball in the dirt (strike 3 swinging)"

 

this sounds like how we start most games when you consider soriano strikes out about 30% of the time. It's always great for the chicago cubs to start games w/ an out isn't it? Just because our $18 mill man "feels better" & doesn't have pressure to earn his money & come in...in the clutch. Give me a break. There was a time when his lack of patience & knowledge of the strikezone was outweighed by his speed on the basepaths. Those days are gone & he is more of an rbi producer just like roberts is more of a tablesetter.

 

 

Do you have the PbP data to back up how often your hypothetical scenario happens or are you just pulling it out your ass and hoping we'll accept it as fact?

 

I do!

 

in 2007, Soriano had 69 plate appearances that started with an 0-2 count. He struck out 27 times out of 69, 14 hits (3 2B, 4 HR)

 

Overall, leading off and inning, he struck out 45 times in 233 plate appearances, but overall, hit .313/.339/.571 when starting an inning

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

"Breaking ball in the dirt (strike 1 swinging)

Fastball 2 feet over his head (strike 2 swinging)

Breaking ball in the dirt (strike 3 swinging)"

 

this sounds like how we start most games when you consider soriano strikes out about 30% of the time. It's always great for the chicago cubs to start games w/ an out isn't it? Just because our $18 mill man "feels better" & doesn't have pressure to earn his money & come in...in the clutch. Give me a break. There was a time when his lack of patience & knowledge of the strikezone was outweighed by his speed on the basepaths. Those days are gone & he is more of an rbi producer just like roberts is more of a tablesetter.

 

 

Do you have the PbP data to back up how often your hypothetical scenario happens or are you just pulling it out your ass and hoping we'll accept it as fact?

 

I do!

 

in 2007, Soriano had 69 plate appearances that started with an 0-2 count. He struck out 27 times out of 69, 14 hits (3 2B, 4 HR)

 

Overall, leading off and inning, he struck out 45 times in 233 plate appearances, but overall, hit .313/.339/.571 when starting an inning

 

Now, we need the PbP data to compare that to Roberts.

[Derwood]

"Breaking ball in the dirt (strike 1 swinging)

Fastball 2 feet over his head (strike 2 swinging)

Breaking ball in the dirt (strike 3 swinging)"

 

this sounds like how we start most games when you consider soriano strikes out about 30% of the time. It's always great for the chicago cubs to start games w/ an out isn't it? Just because our $18 mill man "feels better" & doesn't have pressure to earn his money & come in...in the clutch. Give me a break. There was a time when his lack of patience & knowledge of the strikezone was outweighed by his speed on the basepaths. Those days are gone & he is more of an rbi producer just like roberts is more of a tablesetter.

 

 

Do you have the PbP data to back up how often your hypothetical scenario happens or are you just pulling it out your ass and hoping we'll accept it as fact?

 

I do!

 

in 2007, Soriano had 69 plate appearances that started with an 0-2 count. He struck out 27 times out of 69, 14 hits (3 2B, 4 HR)

 

Overall, leading off and inning, he struck out 45 times in 233 plate appearances, but overall, hit .313/.339/.571 when starting an inning

 

Now, we need the PbP data to compare that to Roberts.

 

same stats for Roberts in 2007:

 

- had 36 PA's that started with an 0-2 count, resulting in 10 K's, 9 hits (1 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR).

- leading off an inning, he K'd 38 times in 274 PA's, overall hitting .292/.372/.444 when starting an inning

 

so, PA's that started 0-2 result in K's 39% of the time for Soriano, 28% for Roberts

when leading off an inning, Soriano K'd 19% of the time, while Roberts K'd 14%

 

I should add that when leading off an inning, Soriano had 13 HR, 13 doubles and 3 triples while Roberts had 4 HR, 23 doubles and 1 triple

 

also, Roberts' splits for PA's in the 1st inning (2007) are just .222/.305/.333 with 1 HR and 12 doubles.

 

So, wrigley23 wants to talk about Roberts having a 40 point edge in OBP (thus should be the leadoff hitter), while in the FIRST INNING (ie the only inning you can guarantee the guy will actually lead off), Soriano held a 34 point edge in OBP

[Dallas Green]

Hey everyone, long-time reader of boards, since winter of 2004. Just wanted to say Bruce Miles is pretty cool for being a member here and covers the Cubs like no one lese, but the Bruce Levine bashing is off-base. Levine is in the loop with a lot of front office people and Gm's. He gets his info earlier than most press people based on his relationships. This deal is a head-scratcher the Cubs badly want Roberts, and Hendry and Mc Phail are still good friends you would think this would be done by now but look how long the Bedard crap went on.

[Outshined_One]

Hey everyone, long-time reader of boards, since winter of 2004. Just wanted to say Bruce Miles is pretty cool for being a member here and covers the Cubs like no one lese, but the Bruce Levine bashing is off-base. Levine is in the loop with a lot of front office people and Gm's. He gets his info earlier than most press people based on his relationships. This deal is a head-scratcher the Cubs badly want Roberts, and Hendry and Mc Phail are still good friends you would think this would be done by now but look how long the Bedard crap went on.

 

Welcome aboard!

[Rob]

Hey everyone, long-time reader of boards, since winter of 2004. Just wanted to say Bruce Miles is pretty cool for being a member here and covers the Cubs like no one lese, but the Bruce Levine bashing is off-base. Levine is in the loop with a lot of front office people and Gm's. He gets his info earlier than most press people based on his relationships. This deal is a head-scratcher the Cubs badly want Roberts, and Hendry and Mc Phail are still good friends you would think this would be done by now but look how long the Bedard crap went on.

 

I'll admit Levine seems to be doing better the last season or two, but he'd built himself a well-deserved reputation as a joke before that. Perhaps people come down on him a bit harder than they should now, but you can't expect their opinions to change in such a short amount of time. If he keeps up the good work, it probably wont be an issue in a couple more years.

 

Welcome to the board, though.

[seanimal]

Hey everyone, long-time reader of boards, since winter of 2004. Just wanted to say Bruce Miles is pretty cool for being a member here and covers the Cubs like no one lese, but the Bruce Levine bashing is off-base. Levine is in the loop with a lot of front office people and Gm's. He gets his info earlier than most press people based on his relationships. This deal is a head-scratcher the Cubs badly want Roberts, and Hendry and Mc Phail are still good friends you would think this would be done by now but look how long the Bedard crap went on.

 

[cough]bruce levine[/cough]

[Tracer Bullet]

in over my head? in what respect? none of us works in mlb or in any position other than fandom to make anything other than a fan's opinion. to the guy saying a homer by soriano is better than roberts simply getting on base. How simplistic. I've already answered this one but i'll take another run at driving it into your head. First off, roberts gets on base more times than soriano hits home runs so. In terms of getting on base in general, roberts gets on base 40 pts more than soriano plus soriano is more likely to drive roberts in than vice versa. It doesn't get much more simple than that. In terms of soriano not hitting as good down in the order vs the top. You may be able to say that about a lot of hitters for various reasons. That is hardly a primary reason for where you hit someone as each team & year brings a different set of variables to the table. Soriano has said in the offseason he would move down if that's what piniella wanted. So much for him being against the move. If more people that are vocal on here are saying soriano is better leading off...that doesn't make your side right. You give yourself way too much credit as a message boarder that ranks right up there w/ the guy ringing the salvation army bell at wal-mart during the holidays.

 

STOP TALKING ABOUT ROBERTS.

 

A) He's not on this team and probably will never be.

 

B) Even if ROberts was on this team, it's irrelevent. This is about getting the most out of Soriano, not getting the most out of a "position" that doesn't exist.

 

"Hey, we just gave a guy a ridiculous 136 million dollar contract, what should we do with him?"

 

"Hey I know, let's play him where he performs the worst!"

 

The bolded part is fantastic. Not only do you command people to stop posting about certain topics (seriously, how many of your posts on the last dozen or so pages instruct people not to post something), but the guy you want him to stop discussing is the topic of this friggin thread.

[David]

Bruce Levine also was the main guy with Nomar on his radar a month before it happened.

 

I know people on here like to bash him (mainly, I think, for that one time he reported that a major deal was going to go down and nothing happened), but I've always thought his reports were a little more credible than the others out there, if anything. Not all the reports are going to come true, though. That's why they're "rumors" and not "news."

[TheGrinch]

Too much of the recent convo has actually revolved around Roberts...and it wasn't pretty. I say we go back to Indiana Jones references.

 

there is such a thing as a leadoff hitter as i see him lead off each & every game & after innings where the pitcher makes the last out. they are the catalyst...one who is asked to work counts, get on base, & score the go ahead run. teams that score first tend to win more than they lose. having an extra guy on base in at least the first inning followed by an extra power bat hitting behind him is a huge boost to the offense & makes the pitcher labor more in the first inning.

 

"He chose...poorly."

 

Dang. Even that is out of juice...Major League references anyone?

 

 

Scorched. Pow.

 

See if you can figure out what I AM referencing.... :lol:

 

I've got no clue. None. But now I want to get "97-X, BAM, The future of Rock and Roll" going. I think the repetitive nature fits this thread well.

 

Also, to be fair to the "non-professional" poster that is wrigley23, it was Dexter that originally mentioned the breaking ball, fastball high, breaking ball strikeout scenario to describe what would happen if Soriano was hitting 5th with no protection, so stop jumping on wrigley23 for that. I'm all for piling on, but lets pile on fairly.

[JonnyRed]

I'm surprised that the Alex Cintron move hasn't resulted in another 10 pages on this thread yet. I sure hope that it's the precusor to the looooonnnnnnngggg awaited Brian Roberts deal.