MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[BigbadB]

the difference is...i haven't resorted to sophomoric personal attacks & I don't pull phrases out to pick apart. I am stating my opinion just like many on this board have. I have not posted my opinion (with or without observations or stats) any more than anyone else. It's just that those complaining about my opinion have a different one so it's convenient to pick apart mine. Again, regardless or soriano's obp last year...it was 40 pts less than Roberts'. Roberts is not an rbi-producing hitter like soriano so he is better suited to hit in front of him & would if we are fortunate enough to get him. I still find it comical that piniella who has won a world series & coached baseball his entire life, hendry who has been in baseball his whole life as a mgr or gm & has been in the playoffs twice recently, stone, etc....are discredited so much & put on the same par w/ people posting on a message board. That is probably the biggest stretch i've seen thus far.

 

At least we have gotten to a point where there is an actual discussion. And before I supply the stats once again, I wish to go on record that I have 2 kids and I work for a living. :wink:

 

The most important job of any guy that hits at the top of a line up is to score runs. OBP is a very important stat. The higher OBP you have, the more likely you are to score a lot of runs. OBP isn't the only stat, however. SLG is also a great stat, whether you bat at the top of the order, the middle of the order or bottom of the order. The more power you hit for, the more likely you are to score runs and drive in runs.

 

While it is true that Soriano was hurt this past year, I'm not sure why that should lead anyone to believe he is suffering from a loss of speed. One could argue that his injury last year hampered his speed, thus a decrease in SB and runs scored. No one would argue that a hamstring problem will hamper someone's speed.

 

If Lou Piniella wants Brian Roberts so that he can move Soriano down in the line up, and Lou then bats Brian Roberts 1st and Ryan Theriot 2nd, then I would have to declare that Piniella is an idiot.

 

The difference between the lead off hitter last year and the #6 hitter is 83 plate appearances. By moving Soriano down to the 6th spot in the line up, you are essentially benching Soriano for 20 games worth of at bats.

 

Is Ryan Theriot batting 2nd worth benching Soriano for 20 games worth of at bats?

 

Is Brian Roberts batting 1st instead of 2nd worth benching Soriano for 20 games worth of at bats?

 

Finally, stealing bases is a luxury. It's all about scoring runs. Alfonso Soriano scores more runs than Roberts. Period. Even with a poorer OBP and even with a bad hamstring, Soriano still scores more runs than Roberts. Roberts could have stolen 100 bases last year to Soriano's zero bases and with the same amount of at bats, I'd bet Soriano still scores more runs than Roberts. Why? Because Soriano drives himself in often enough (HR) to make up for the lack of stolen bases.

 

In the end, top of the order guys are supposed to score runs. Roberts and Soriano can both do just that.

[DeuceBaseman]

In the end, top of the order guys are supposed to score runs. Roberts and Soriano can both do just that.

 

I agree that Roberts and Soriano can both score runs, which is what you want your top of the order guys to do. BUT, Soriano isn't a type of player that you use to score runs. He is the type of player that drives in runs. So he would be much more valuable lower in the lineup. If Roberts and Soriano are equal in run scoring, then DeRosa and Soriano are not equal in run producing. So it comes down to who would you rather have driving in runs in the 5 hole, Soriano or DeRosa? Plus, a lot of Soriano's runs last year came from HRs, like a third of them. Those could still be runs, but also more RBI for him. While Roberts, without the HRs, can still get more runs than Soriano just by getting on base more.

[CoolHandLuke]

In the end, top of the order guys are supposed to score runs. Roberts and Soriano can both do just that.

 

I agree that Roberts and Soriano can both score runs, which is what you want your top of the order guys to do. BUT, Soriano isn't a type of player that you use to score runs. He is the type of player that drives in runs. So he would be much more valuable lower in the lineup. If Roberts and Soriano are equal in run scoring, then DeRosa and Soriano are not equal in run producing. So it comes down to who would you rather have driving in runs in the 5 hole, Soriano or DeRosa? Plus, a lot of Soriano's runs last year came from HRs, like a third of them. Those could still be runs, but also more RBI for him. While Roberts, without the HRs, can still get more runs than Soriano just by getting on base more.

 

It's not a black or white situation.

[Derwood]

who cares whether Soriano scores them or drives them in? and why are the only choices with him batting #1 or #5? What we should all be more concerned with is Theriot batting anywhere but #8 (or, preferably, being on the bench). Theriot batting 2nd is far more damaging than Soriano leading off

[Post Count Padder]

who cares whether Soriano scores them or drives them in? and why are the only choices with him batting #1 or #5? What we should all be more concerned with is Theriot batting anywhere but #8 (or, preferably, being on the bench). Theriot batting 2nd is far more damaging than Soriano leading off

Yes, this. I'd much rather see DeRosa or Fuku batting second.

[BigbadB]

In the end, top of the order guys are supposed to score runs. Roberts and Soriano can both do just that.

 

I agree that Roberts and Soriano can both score runs, which is what you want your top of the order guys to do. BUT, Soriano isn't a type of player that you use to score runs. He is the type of player that drives in runs. So he would be much more valuable lower in the lineup. If Roberts and Soriano are equal in run scoring, then DeRosa and Soriano are not equal in run producing. So it comes down to who would you rather have driving in runs in the 5 hole, Soriano or DeRosa? Plus, a lot of Soriano's runs last year came from HRs, like a third of them. Those could still be runs, but also more RBI for him. While Roberts, without the HRs, can still get more runs than Soriano just by getting on base more.

 

Are you suggesting DeRosa plays SS if the Cubs get Roberts? I'm game.

 

I think you are mistaken if you think Soriano would bat 5th. Fukudome will bat 5th, because Fukudome's existence on this roster was the extreme need by Cubs management to get a lefty power bat. Soriano moves all the way to 6th in the order if they move Soriano out of the lead off spot.

 

Between Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome and Soto and Pie, there should be plenty of power in the middle and bottom half of the order. Put DeRosa at SS, and there's even more power.

 

Soriano bats "lead off" in the first inning. That's it. That's it, except for a few other random times it might happen in a game. There is no guarantee that he'll start off an inning at any other time in a game.

 

And when you move Soriano out of the lead off spot and move him all the way down to the 6 spot, you are taking the bat out of Soriano's hands completely for appromimately 20 games worth of at bats. That's an extremely significant amount of at bats. 2/3 of a month, and doesn't include the games he's given off for rest or to heal an injury.

 

Cubs in 2007:

Batting 1st: 765 PA

Batting 6th: 682 PA

 

Cubs in 2006:

Batting 1st: 755 PA

Batting 6th: 668

 

Cubs in 2005:

Batting 1st: 754 PA

Batting 6th: 671

 

See the pattern? By dropping Soriano from 1st to 6th, you're essentially taking the bat out of his hands entirely for the equivilent of 20 games.

 

Wouldn't it make a whole lot more sense to keep the bat in Soriano's hands AND bat Roberts 2nd?

[Derwood]

i would also rather have Soriano lead off a game with a HR than Roberts lead off with a walk.

[haltz]

Those could still be runs, but also more RBI for him.

But not as many as you think because he'd hit significantly less, and of course some of his runs just change to RBI because of where he is in the batting order. There's a lot of give and take here, and batting order can be optimized, but it just doesn't mean as much as people think.

 

It should always be about getting the best players at each position, and then optimizing it after that though. That's what people mean when they say that leadoff hitter isn't a position. Of course someone has to hit first. If you get the best players for your resources or whatever at C, SS, 2B, 1B, 3B, CF, LF, RF and then make sure that someone that sucks doesn't get a ton of plate appearances at the top, you'll be much better off than teams that get fixated on things that don't matter - and try and find certain traits on the free agent or trade market instead of finding wins through good value (offense+defense) positional upgrades.

[GTAG]

has Roberts ever hit 2nd? I couldn't agree more about Theriot batting 8th... and even 9th when Z is pitching. Just to throw this out there... if Fukudome is the hitter that we all hope he is would anyone mind seeing Lee hit 2nd and Fukudome hit 3rd? If the objective is in fact to get your best hitters the most at bats? Just wondering.

[wrigley23]

the odds on soriano getting a leadoff hr are far less than the odds on roberts getting on base to be driven in are. soriano had had leg issues for the past several yrs. He has progressively gotten worse. He used to be more effective as a leadoff hitter. He is now more of a run producer. Soriano would not bat 6th & I don't even think theriot would bat 2nd. In fact, I would play derosa at ss & hit him 2nd. I absolutely love our lineup w/ roberts leading off followed by derosa, soriano, fuko, lee & ramirez. I also think soto wil be an above avg hitter at catcher. if roberts has a 40-pt advantage over soriano then yes...i would prefer roberts getting more at bats. why wouldn't you? since soriano tends to hit more extra base hits & roberts gets on base more often, it only makes sense to hit soriano behind roberts. Actually, fuko has a great reputation as an on base guy that makes the pitcher work. I think fuko would be a great 2-hole hitter behind roberts & then we'd be very strong behind them throughout the lineup. Our 3-hole hitter should see very good pitches & soriano has proven to be a great threat when he knows a fastball is coming. I like the sound of starting a game up 2-0 or 3-0 in lieu of 1-0.

[Sammy Sofa]

the odds on soriano getting a leadoff hr are far less than the odds on roberts getting on base to be driven in are. soriano had had leg issues for the past several yrs. He has progressively gotten worse. He used to be more effective as a leadoff hitter. He is now more of a run producer. Soriano would not bat 6th & I don't even think theriot would bat 2nd. In fact, I would play derosa at ss & hit him 2nd. I absolutely love our lineup w/ roberts leading off followed by derosa, soriano, fuko, lee & ramirez. I also think soto wil be an above avg hitter at catcher. if roberts has a 40-pt advantage over soriano then yes...i would prefer roberts getting more at bats. why wouldn't you? since soriano tends to hit more extra base hits & roberts gets on base more often, it only makes sense to hit soriano behind roberts. Actually, fuko has a great reputation as an on base guy that makes the pitcher work. I think fuko would be a great 2-hole hitter behind roberts & then we'd be very strong behind them throughout the lineup. Our 3-hole hitter should see very good pitches & soriano has proven to be a great threat when he knows a fastball is coming. I like the sound of starting a game up 2-0 or 3-0 in lieu of 1-0.

 

Soriano's offensive numbers suffer the more he hits with guys on. Why not keep him leadoff and then bat Roberts 2nd (which is moot since the Cubs won't get him)? Then Roberts is still hitting ahead of Lee and Aramis.

[GTAG]

the odds on soriano getting a leadoff hr are far less than the odds on roberts getting on base to be driven in are. soriano had had leg issues for the past several yrs. He has progressively gotten worse. He used to be more effective as a leadoff hitter. He is now more of a run producer. Soriano would not bat 6th & I don't even think theriot would bat 2nd. In fact, I would play derosa at ss & hit him 2nd. I absolutely love our lineup w/ roberts leading off followed by derosa, soriano, fuko, lee & ramirez. I also think soto wil be an above avg hitter at catcher. if roberts has a 40-pt advantage over soriano then yes...i would prefer roberts getting more at bats. why wouldn't you? since soriano tends to hit more extra base hits & roberts gets on base more often, it only makes sense to hit soriano behind roberts. Actually, fuko has a great reputation as an on base guy that makes the pitcher work. I think fuko would be a great 2-hole hitter behind roberts & then we'd be very strong behind them throughout the lineup. Our 3-hole hitter should see very good pitches & soriano has proven to be a great threat when he knows a fastball is coming. I like the sound of starting a game up 2-0 or 3-0 in lieu of 1-0.

 

Soriano's offensive numbers suffer the more he hits with guys on. Why not keep him leadoff and then bat Roberts 2nd (which is moot since the Cubs won't get him)? Then Roberts is still hitting ahead of Lee and Aramis.

 

Too many righties in a row :lol:

[wrigley23]

no thanks. soriano in front of roberts makes no sense.

[GTAG]

no thanks. soriano in front of roberts makes no sense.

 

On paper I agree... but if he tightens up with guys in front of him then it does. It is a mental block or something. Like when Ankiel was not able to pitch to home plate.

[Sammy Sofa]

no thanks. soriano in front of roberts makes no sense.

 

Why not? Soriano poses a serious threat at the top of the order, and it's not like he gets on base at a horrible clip. Putting better hitters directly after him would likely make him even more of a threat with the pitches he'd see.

[BigbadB]

soriano had had leg issues for the past several yrs. He has progressively gotten worse. He used to be more effective as a leadoff hitter.

 

I don't understand where you gather this information. Soriano stole 41 bases in '06 and 30 in '05. A guy with leg issues doesn't even attempt to steal bases.

 

Soriano averaged 99 RBI in '05 and '06, mainly as a lead off hitter. If you put competent guys at 7th and 8th in a Cubs line up, Soriano would easily challenge hitting over 100 RBI batting in the #1 spot in the order. What more could anyone want batting lead off than a guy who could start a game off 1-0 with a home run, can rip a double and score on a Roberts or Lee base hit and can drive in the guys at the bottom of the order.

[Sammy Sofa]

I love that the guy with "leg issues for several years" was a rare 40/40 player just one season ago.

[Clem Fandango]

My created player in MVP 05 had an injury to his leg and he still stole 178 bases, so leg problems shouldn't be the issue here

[JimSorgi]

i would also rather have Soriano lead off a game with a HR than Roberts lead off with a walk.

Umm...why? If Roberts leads off with a walk, Theriot can bunt him over to second. Then you've got your big bats coming up to hit him in. That's how baseball works.

[JeffH]

Peter Gammons:

 

The Cubs may lust for Brian Roberts as the perfect part, but they won't put right-hander Jose Ceda or outfielder Felix Pie in the deal, so Roberts is going to stay in Baltimore. For now.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=gammons_peter

[Clem Fandango]

Peter Gammons:

 

The Cubs may lust for Brian Roberts as the perfect part, but they won't put right-hander Jose Ceda or outfielder Felix Pie in the deal, so Roberts is going to stay in Baltimore. For now.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=gammons_peter

 

So...... what about that other trade that's gonna rock, Hendry? Where's that at?

[BigbadB]

i would also rather have Soriano lead off a game with a HR than Roberts lead off with a walk.

Umm...why? If Roberts leads off with a walk, Theriot can bunt him over to second. Then you've got your big bats coming up to hit him in. That's how baseball works.

 

Seriously?

 

HR>>>>>>>>>>>>>walk, bunt guy over, maybe production guy will drive him in. The best production guys in the world only have about a 33% success rate.

 

A HR is a guaranteed run. A walk, single, HBP, CI or any other form of reaching first based guarantees you nothing.

 

And if you are seriously going to bunt Roberts to 2b, you have just rendered his speed useless. Might as well just bat DeRosa 1st and waste the out Theriot is going to make to move DeRosa to 2nd.

 

And this is one of the exact reasons Theriot should bat 8th. Why on earth should the Cubs accept making an out with the #2 hitter by bunting a guy over to 2nd as an in game strategy. It's a horrible strategy, for the most part.

[wrigley23]

you act like soriano has 60 lead off home runs/yr. Unless he has more than roberts would have hits plus walks then your analogy does not make sense. soriano also gets thrown out a lot so "net steals" is the more relevant stat. So you say soriano "feels more comfortable" hitting leadoff. How do you know? He also said he'd move down if that was best for the team so I guess his "feelings" have changed. If he crumbles unless he leads off then we have other issues because this is about what is best for the team...not one player. There is a reason why he was shipped out of NY & then out of texas. I'm also curious as to what other move has been rumored. Hopefully, it was for one...AJ Burnett...the healthy version. That my friends, is the second critical move needed to increase playoff success. I also think a division win is no sure thing either. Gallardo concerns me in year 2 & if sheets/gagne prove healthy...we will have a battle on our hands.

[JimSorgi]

i would also rather have Soriano lead off a game with a HR than Roberts lead off with a walk.

Umm...why? If Roberts leads off with a walk, Theriot can bunt him over to second. Then you've got your big bats coming up to hit him in. That's how baseball works.

 

Seriously?

 

HR>>>>>>>>>>>>>walk, bunt guy over, maybe production guy will drive him in. The best production guys in the world only have about a 33% success rate.

 

A HR is a guaranteed run. A walk, single, HBP, CI or any other form of reaching first based guarantees you nothing.

 

And if you are seriously going to bunt Roberts to 2b, you have just rendered his speed useless. Might as well just bat DeRosa 1st and waste the out Theriot is going to make to move DeRosa to 2nd.

 

And this is one of the exact reasons Theriot should bat 8th. Why on earth should the Cubs accept making an out with the #2 hitter by bunting a guy over to 2nd as an in game strategy. It's a horrible strategy, for the most part.

Sorry, bad attempt at sarcasm.

[UMFan83]

Peter Gammons:

 

The Cubs may lust for Brian Roberts as the perfect part, but they won't put right-hander Jose Ceda or outfielder Felix Pie in the deal, so Roberts is going to stay in Baltimore. For now.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=gammons_peter

 

So expect Roberts to be in a Cub uniform in a matter of days basically?