Tarik Skubal Trade Makes for Hard Trade Deadline Decision for Cubs

Jed Hoyer’s reputation as a prospect-hoarding cheapskate is a bit overblown. He’ll take big swings when the chance arises and the numbers support his decision. What he is guilty of, perhaps, is letting value and circumstance rule him, rather than finding conviction in a particular evaluation. That might be a major factor in what the Cubs decide to do over the final 23 hours before the trade deadline. 

Tarik Skubal is a Dodger. FanGraphs now gives them a 30.4% chance of winning the World Series. In projections, that’s as close to a sure thing as you can reasonably build. Obviously, it's still a mile from being an actual sure thing. Even the chances of the Dodgers winning the pennant (44.3%) aren't prohibitive, and that's the number the Cubs have to worry about, anyway. Still, if this wasn't an all-in juggernaut before, it is now.

Hoyer has built a team with one player performing as a superstar and a pitching staff beset by injuries. The defense is, of course, its own star, ruining the experience of watching lesser teams fumble the ball around on routine plays. The Cubs are good. But the numbers will never catch up to what the Dodgers have assembled.

So what will the Cubs do? Find a cheap retread and hope he clicks, like they've done with David Peterson? Go for some relievers? Do nothing, counting on injury returns like Hoby Milner and Edward Cabrera to function as deadline acquisitions?

No matter what Hoyer does, though, the Cubs will be heavy underdogs against the Dodgers. Going by odds of winning the pennant, Chicago (8.4%) also looks overmatched against Milwaukee (16.7%) and the team from outside Atlanta (13.5%). If he is to make fans happy and make a big splash, Hoyer will have to go against his history and his instincts. Hoyer talked about obtaining a first-round bye, the possibility of which would justify a heavy investment at the deadline. They aren’t likely to do that; they'd have to catch Milwaukee to do so. By the numbers, the opportunity he talked about wanting to see just isn't there.

So where are we? Are the Cubs, as long rumored, happy to just make the playoffs and let it shake out? Or are they going to try to win the darn thing, 10 short years after the last one? Will they let the numbers intimidate them, or will they acknowledge that their odds will only be a dice-roll and roll those dice anyway? One answer, of course, could be to reject the premise of the numbers and say that there's more to chase in a baseball season than a title, anyway—that the real failure is a failure to become one's best self, without regard for who or what anyone else is. That would be a very un-Hoyer-like way to do business, though.

Hoyer’s actions tonight and tomorrow will tell us a lot about his mindset. We wait with bated breath to see if his slavish devotion to projections extends further than anticipated.

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