MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[17 Seconds]

no, home runs and walks occur independent of luck, base hits do not. batting average is a stat that is highly affected by chance, which makes it's deviation much more unpredictable.

 

Hits are more likely to occur by chance while walks are not? I completely disagree. Walks are WAYYYY more about luck than hits are. You get a hit if your a good hitter end of story. You take a walk if the pitcher happens to throw you balls.

 

that's the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

I find it hilarious that this guy is a baseball coach.

[Magnetic Curses]

no, home runs and walks occur independent of luck, base hits do not. batting average is a stat that is highly affected by chance, which makes it's deviation much more unpredictable.

 

Hits are more likely to occur by chance while walks are not? I completely disagree. Walks are WAYYYY more about luck than hits are. You get a hit if your a good hitter end of story. You take a walk if the pitcher happens to throw you balls.

 

that's the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

What a coincidence because what you wrote above that was the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

haha, nice one.

[DeuceBaseman]

no, home runs and walks occur independent of luck, base hits do not. batting average is a stat that is highly affected by chance, which makes it's deviation much more unpredictable.

 

Hits are more likely to occur by chance while walks are not? I completely disagree. Walks are WAYYYY more about luck than hits are. You get a hit if your a good hitter end of story. You take a walk if the pitcher happens to throw you balls.

 

that's the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

I find it hilarious that this guy is a baseball coach.

 

HOW IN THE HELL DO HITS OCCUR BECAUSE OF LUCK??!!!! ARE YOU GUYS SERIOUS RIGHT NOW?!!!! I'M DONE WITH THIS [expletive]. YOU GUYS HAVE TO BE THE STUPIDEST PEOPLE IVE EVER COME ACROSS. BATTING AVERAGE IS A VERY IMPORTANT STAT WHEN DETERMINING HOW GOOD A HITTER IS. NO ONE HAS A HIGH BATTING AVERAGE BECAUSE OF LUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Derwood]

getting hits isn't lucky? you mean that you, as a .500 hitter in high school, could place with the utmost precision every ball you made contact with? you never had hits just "fall in", or had a guy take a bad route to a fly ball, maybe stumble on his first step to the ball? ever heard of BABIP?

[Post Count Padder]

This thread is filled with joy.

[DeuceBaseman]

getting hits isn't lucky? you mean that you, as a .500 hitter in high school, could place with the utmost precision every ball you made contact with? you never had hits just "fall in", or had a guy take a bad route to a fly ball, maybe stumble on his first step to the ball? ever heard of BABIP?

 

 

You can say that about anything. Maybe a pitcher tripped and threw a ball and walked you. OOOO you got a walk by luck. Duck snorts or broken bat singles happen a lot. Those are due mostly to luck or whatever you want to call it. But over a season batting average is not influenced by luck. You dont see a guy getting 100 broken bat singles.

[Magnetic Curses]

no, home runs and walks occur independent of luck, base hits do not. batting average is a stat that is highly affected by chance, which makes it's deviation much more unpredictable.

 

Hits are more likely to occur by chance while walks are not? I completely disagree. Walks are WAYYYY more about luck than hits are. You get a hit if your a good hitter end of story. You take a walk if the pitcher happens to throw you balls.

 

that's the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

I find it hilarious that this guy is a baseball coach.

 

seriously? but i guess i'm not surprised. baseball coaches are often the most confused by the game and it's alleged idiosyncracies.

 

The Hidden Game of Baseball references "the music of the spheres", which really alludes to getting bogged down by the supposed magic of baseball, conventional wisdom, and irrational beliefs that are common among baseball insiders.

 

baseball, above all else, is a game of numbers, cold, hard numbers--especially on the pro level.

Edited February 19, 2008 by Stannis

[Magnetic Curses]

getting hits isn't lucky? you mean that you, as a .500 hitter in high school, could place with the utmost precision every ball you made contact with? you never had hits just "fall in", or had a guy take a bad route to a fly ball, maybe stumble on his first step to the ball? ever heard of BABIP?

 

 

You can say that about anything. Maybe a pitcher tripped and threw a ball and walked you. OOOO you got a walk by luck. Duck snorts or broken bat singles happen a lot. Those are due mostly to luck or whatever you want to call it. But over a season batting average is not influenced by luck. You dont see a guy getting 100 broken bat singles.

 

hell, even if you learned everything that you know about baseball from movies, you know that the difference between a .275 hitter and a .300 hitter is 1 hit per week.

[Magnetic Curses]

no, home runs and walks occur independent of luck, base hits do not. batting average is a stat that is highly affected by chance, which makes it's deviation much more unpredictable.

 

Hits are more likely to occur by chance while walks are not? I completely disagree. Walks are WAYYYY more about luck than hits are. You get a hit if your a good hitter end of story. You take a walk if the pitcher happens to throw you balls.

 

that's the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

I find it hilarious that this guy is a baseball coach.

 

HOW IN THE HELL DO HITS OCCUR BECAUSE OF LUCK??!!!! ARE YOU GUYS SERIOUS RIGHT NOW?!!!! I'M DONE WITH THIS ****. YOU GUYS HAVE TO BE THE STUPIDEST PEOPLE IVE EVER COME ACROSS. BATTING AVERAGE IS A VERY IMPORTANT STAT WHEN DETERMINING HOW GOOD A HITTER IS. NO ONE HAS A HIGH BATTING AVERAGE BECAUSE OF LUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

haha, that's an even better one.

[17 Seconds]

no, home runs and walks occur independent of luck, base hits do not. batting average is a stat that is highly affected by chance, which makes it's deviation much more unpredictable.

 

Hits are more likely to occur by chance while walks are not? I completely disagree. Walks are WAYYYY more about luck than hits are. You get a hit if your a good hitter end of story. You take a walk if the pitcher happens to throw you balls.

 

that's the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

I find it hilarious that this guy is a baseball coach.

 

HOW IN THE HELL DO HITS OCCUR BECAUSE OF LUCK??!!!! ARE YOU GUYS SERIOUS RIGHT NOW?!!!! I'M DONE WITH THIS ****. YOU GUYS HAVE TO BE THE STUPIDEST PEOPLE IVE EVER COME ACROSS. BATTING AVERAGE IS A VERY IMPORTANT STAT WHEN DETERMINING HOW GOOD A HITTER IS. NO ONE HAS A HIGH BATTING AVERAGE BECAUSE OF LUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I was referring the the "you take a walk if the pitcher happens to throw you balls" stuff. I don't like to harp too much on Moneyball, but there's a chapter in that book discussing that exactly mentality about walks and how early statisticians ridiculously denied that taking a walk could be due to the skill of the player. The chapter pretty much talks about how stupid they were.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

This thread truly has it all. :lol:

[Magnetic Curses]

no, home runs and walks occur independent of luck, base hits do not. batting average is a stat that is highly affected by chance, which makes it's deviation much more unpredictable.

 

Hits are more likely to occur by chance while walks are not? I completely disagree. Walks are WAYYYY more about luck than hits are. You get a hit if your a good hitter end of story. You take a walk if the pitcher happens to throw you balls.

 

that's the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

I find it hilarious that this guy is a baseball coach.

 

HOW IN THE HELL DO HITS OCCUR BECAUSE OF LUCK??!!!! ARE YOU GUYS SERIOUS RIGHT NOW?!!!! I'M DONE WITH THIS ****. YOU GUYS HAVE TO BE THE STUPIDEST PEOPLE IVE EVER COME ACROSS. BATTING AVERAGE IS A VERY IMPORTANT STAT WHEN DETERMINING HOW GOOD A HITTER IS. NO ONE HAS A HIGH BATTING AVERAGE BECAUSE OF LUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I was referring the the "you take a walk if the pitcher happens to throw you balls" stuff. I don't like to harp too much on Moneyball, but there's a chapter in that book discussing that exactly mentality about walks and how early statisticians ridiculously denied that taking a walk could be due to the skill of the player. The chapter pretty much talks about how stupid they were.

 

yep. i'll also add that players who take alot of pitches and work deep into counts tend to maximize their potential. most hitter aren't good enough to walk a lot, hit a lot, and strike out a few times--the ones who are are in the hall of fame, but anyway......what taking pitches does is tire a good pitcher out, opposing teams did this for years against us, they just wouldn't swing, they went looking for walks because they knew it was their best shot at scoring.

 

it's an excellent strategy, and one not contingent at all upon luck. you don't even need much skill to take a walk.

[DeuceBaseman]

yep. i'll also add that players who take alot of pitches and work deep into counts tend to maximize their potential. most hitter aren't good enough to walk a lot, hit a lot, and strike out a few times--the ones who are are in the hall of fame, but anyway......what taking pitches does is tire a good pitcher out, opposing teams did this for years against us, they just wouldn't swing, they went looking for walks because they knew it was their best shot at scoring.

 

it's an excellent strategy, and one not contingent at all upon luck. you don't even need much skill to take a walk.

 

And that is why we need Roberts at the top of the order and not Soriano. We need a guy to take a lot of pitches, and tire the pitcher out, and see how his stuff is on that particular day. Instead of Soriano's swing swing swing approach.

[Magnetic Curses]

yep. i'll also add that players who take alot of pitches and work deep into counts tend to maximize their potential. most hitter aren't good enough to walk a lot, hit a lot, and strike out a few times--the ones who are are in the hall of fame, but anyway......what taking pitches does is tire a good pitcher out, opposing teams did this for years against us, they just wouldn't swing, they went looking for walks because they knew it was their best shot at scoring.

 

it's an excellent strategy, and one not contingent at all upon luck. you don't even need much skill to take a walk.

 

And that is why we need Roberts at the top of the order and not Soriano. We need a guy to take a lot of pitches, and tire the pitcher out, and see how his stuff is on that particular day. Instead of Soriano's swing swing swing approach.

 

i don't necessarily buy into the "stuff-testing" idea when it comes to leadoff hitters. most hitters who pay attention will be watching and asking questions anyway regardless of the leadoff hitter.

 

but yeah, soriano shouldn't be leading off.

[mul21]

Good God this thread sucks. People aren't even commenting on insiders posts anyone. They just ignore them and go on talking about the dumbest things ever.

 

Do I have permission to start a Brian Roberts thread that actually talks about Brian Roberts news and rumors?

 

And possibly derail the "greatest thread ever"? Blasphemer!!!!!

[CUBZ99]

OH insider said that Roberts has asked to be traded soon(if they are going to trade him). He thinks things have heated up considerably and that Roberts and Payton will be coming to the Cubs.

[E.J.]

OH insider said that Roberts has asked to be traded soon(if they are going to trade him). He thinks things have heated up considerably and that Roberts and Payton will be coming to the Cubs.

 

I just hope this trade goes down ASAP. I'm so tired of this stupid thread.

[anabiono]

he is coming here...

 

:yahoo:

[third eye]

no, home runs and walks occur independent of luck, base hits do not. batting average is a stat that is highly affected by chance, which makes it's deviation much more unpredictable.

 

Hits are more likely to occur by chance while walks are not? I completely disagree. Walks are WAYYYY more about luck than hits are. You get a hit if your a good hitter end of story. You take a walk if the pitcher happens to throw you balls.

 

that's the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

I find it hilarious that this guy is a baseball coach.

 

HOW IN THE HELL DO HITS OCCUR BECAUSE OF LUCK??!!!! ARE YOU GUYS SERIOUS RIGHT NOW?!!!! I'M DONE WITH THIS ****. YOU GUYS HAVE TO BE THE STUPIDEST PEOPLE IVE EVER COME ACROSS. BATTING AVERAGE IS A VERY IMPORTANT STAT WHEN DETERMINING HOW GOOD A HITTER IS. NO ONE HAS A HIGH BATTING AVERAGE BECAUSE OF LUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

Is there any chance you have ever heard of BABIP?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batting_average_on_balls_in_play

[Burtonbell]

Anyone here not really that enamored to get Payton in this deal? The guy doesn't bring anything to the table, even as a backup to Pie.

Why would Payton be in the deal unless a Cub with a (somewhat) matching salary would be included?

 

Dempster or Marquis for Payton, Gallagher, Murton, Cedeno for Roberts. Is that the way things could be played out? I'm not for it, but I can see something like this happening.

[mul21]

Is there any chance you have ever heard of BABIP?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batting_av ... ls_in_play

 

Just sent him a very cordial PM trying to explain this to him.

[inari]

no, home runs and walks occur independent of luck, base hits do not. batting average is a stat that is highly affected by chance, which makes it's deviation much more unpredictable.

 

Hits are more likely to occur by chance while walks are not? I completely disagree. Walks are WAYYYY more about luck than hits are. You get a hit if your a good hitter end of story. You take a walk if the pitcher happens to throw you balls.

 

that's the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

I find it hilarious that this guy is a baseball coach.

 

HOW IN THE HELL DO HITS OCCUR BECAUSE OF LUCK??!!!! ARE YOU GUYS SERIOUS RIGHT NOW?!!!! I'M DONE WITH THIS ****. YOU GUYS HAVE TO BE THE STUPIDEST PEOPLE IVE EVER COME ACROSS. BATTING AVERAGE IS A VERY IMPORTANT STAT WHEN DETERMINING HOW GOOD A HITTER IS. NO ONE HAS A HIGH BATTING AVERAGE BECAUSE OF LUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Why are you here? All you do is talk about how stupid we are (both here and on cubs.com).

[Derwood]

anyways, to answer my old question, it sounds like you would rather have a .300 hitter with a .400 SLG up in a critical game situation than a .240 hitter with a .500 SLG. am i right?

[David]

This would back up the bigbird report from today...

 

From Roch's (O's beat writer) blog at Baltimore Sun

 

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/roch/blog/

 

Brian Roberts doesn’t want fans to get the impression that he is miserable with the Orioles and is pushing for a trade, but he concedes that the idea of playing for a contender is appealing to him. Not exactly breaking news.

 

“It’s a touchy situation because I love the Orioles,” he said. “I’ve been here since Day One and I do want to see this organization win. I made a commitment when I signed my deal. But certainly, on the other hand, when you see two of your best players gone, a lot of unknowns come in. Very talented, I’m sure, but unknowns nonetheless. The organization essentially has conceded that we probably won’t win for a couple years. It’s hard to swallow at first. But wherever I end up, I’ll do my job.”

 

Asked if he expected to be with the Orioles on Opening Day, Roberts said, “I don’t know what to expect anymore. I don’t try to predict anymore.”

 

Roberts said he’s had “a little bit of communication” with club officials but hasn’t requested a trade.

 

“I would never call this organization and say, ‘I want to be traded, I need to be traded, get me out of here,’” he said.

 

In a perfect world, Roberts would get that chance to win here. That’s his first choice.

[Guest]

no, home runs and walks occur independent of luck, base hits do not. batting average is a stat that is highly affected by chance, which makes it's deviation much more unpredictable.

 

Hits are more likely to occur by chance while walks are not? I completely disagree. Walks are WAYYYY more about luck than hits are. You get a hit if your a good hitter end of story. You take a walk if the pitcher happens to throw you balls.

 

that's the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

I find it hilarious that this guy is a baseball coach.

 

HOW IN THE HELL DO HITS OCCUR BECAUSE OF LUCK??!!!! ARE YOU GUYS SERIOUS RIGHT NOW?!!!! I'M DONE WITH THIS ****. YOU GUYS HAVE TO BE THE STUPIDEST PEOPLE IVE EVER COME ACROSS. BATTING AVERAGE IS A VERY IMPORTANT STAT WHEN DETERMINING HOW GOOD A HITTER IS. NO ONE HAS A HIGH BATTING AVERAGE BECAUSE OF LUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Exhibit A: Darin Erstad, year 2000:

 

2000 26 ANA AL 157 676 121 240 39 6 25 100 28 8 64 82 .355 .409 .541 137 366 2 4 9 1 8