MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[98navigator]

Has anyone ever heard rumors of this on and off again bs with any other trade? I don't remember a trade not going down, or going down with all this speculation and talk.

 

Maybe Arod, but everyone pretty much knew where he would end up anyways.

 

To be fair, I don't think the trade was ever off; perhaps it was on hold while the O's worked on the Bedard deal . Also, I think this situation is unique because of the various leaked reports. Rightly or wrongly, GMs no longer have the luxury of negotiating in a bubble which creates speculation and anticipation...

[CubsWin]

I am of the belief that both sides are still trying to make this trade happen and that it likely will get done before the start of the season. But I'm still torn on whether it will be worth it to give up the rumored Murton, Cedeno and Gallagher to add another lefty bat to the line-up who is a slight upgrade over DeRosa and get the added benefit of meaningful depth and insurance against injury at almost every position except catcher.

 

It is certainly a trade to win now over build a dynasty. But I feel it is overpaying. Murton is a proven offensive commodity who's value only improves if he moves to the AL. Gallagher's performance history is stellar even if his stuff is not. And Cedeno has a shot at being a solid SS at the major league level, something that is not that easy to find. So two questions remain:

 

1. Is it worth overpaying this much (however much you feel that is) in order to help the Cubs chances even a little at winning the World Series this year?

 

2. How much does adding Brian Roberts really help this ballclub? In order to answer that one accurately, you would also have to answer what is the impact of having a more balanced line-up? What is the impact of being able to give your star players rest and keep them fresher throughout the season? How likely is an injury to any one of Ramirez, Roberts, Fukudome, Soriano, Lee and Theriot? How much of an improvement is DeRosa over someone like Fontenot or Cintron? Etc., etc.

[CubsWin]

Many of those above questions have already been discussed at length in this thread, except for the possible effects of a more balanced (lefty vs. righty) line-up. The Cubs line-up without Roberts will likely be:

 

Soriano

Theriot

Lee

Ramirez

Fukudome

Soto

DeRosa

Pie

 

But with him, it would probably be:

 

Soriano

Roberts

Lee

Ramirez

Fukudome

Soto

Pie

Theriot

 

Clearly, the biggest advantage of adding Roberts to that line-up is having his OBP and base stealing ability in front of Lee, Ramirez and Fukudome. But I keep hearing Lou and Hendry talking about the difference a third left-handed bat would make and I'm wondering if this is just "ol' timey" establishment thinking rearing its head or if there are some stats to support that notion.

 

The only thing I can think of is that managers will go to the bullpen more often to match-up righty vs. righty and lefty vs. lefty more often and that the Cubs will face the back end of team's bullpen more often. Certainly, there is an advantage to facing the 6th and 7th relievers instead of a team's 3rd best and 4th best, but how much of an advantage is that?

 

Can anyone else think of any other possible advantage to not having a string of 4 or 5 right-handed batters in a row?

[TheGrinch]

Many of those above questions have already been discussed at length in this thread, except for the possible effects of a more balanced (lefty vs. righty) line-up. The Cubs line-up without Roberts will likely be:

 

Soriano

Theriot

Lee

Ramirez

Fukudome

Soto

DeRosa

Pie

 

But with him, it would probably be:

 

Soriano

Roberts

Lee

Ramirez

Fukudome

Soto

Pie

Theriot

 

Clearly, the biggest advantage of adding Roberts to that line-up is having his OBP and base stealing ability in front of Lee, Ramirez and Fukudome. But I keep hearing Lou and Hendry talking about the difference a third left-handed bat would make and I'm wondering if this is just "ol' timey" establishment thinking rearing its head or if there are some stats to support that notion.

 

The only thing I can think of is that managers will go to the bullpen more often to match-up righty vs. righty and lefty vs. lefty more often and that the Cubs will face the back end of team's bullpen more often. Certainly, there is an advantage to facing the 6th and 7th relievers instead of a team's 3rd best and 4th best, but how much of an advantage is that?

 

Can anyone else think of any other possible advantage to not having a string of 4 or 5 right-handed batters in a row?

The argument that is normally made is that the opposing team only has so many pitchers in its bullpen. If you stagger your line-up R-L-R-L, you would have to use a different pitcher every AB to get a favorable match up. Since that just isn't practical, you force favorable R vs. L or L vs. R match-ups. ...I don't really know how big of a deal this makes over the course of a season as opposed to just having good hitters in general and focusing on that.

[Backtobanks]

I am of the belief that both sides are still trying to make this trade happen and that it likely will get done before the start of the season. But I'm still torn on whether it will be worth it to give up the rumored Murton, Cedeno and Gallagher to add another lefty bat to the line-up who is a slight upgrade over DeRosa and get the added benefit of meaningful depth and insurance against injury at almost every position except catcher.

 

It is certainly a trade to win now over build a dynasty. But I feel it is overpaying. Murton is a proven offensive commodity who's value only improves if he moves to the AL. Gallagher's performance history is stellar even if his stuff is not. And Cedeno has a shot at being a solid SS at the major league level, something that is not that easy to find. So two questions remain:

 

1. Is it worth overpaying this much (however much you feel that is) in order to help the Cubs chances even a little at winning the World Series this year?

 

2. How much does adding Brian Roberts really help this ballclub? In order to answer that one accurately, you would also have to answer what is the impact of having a more balanced line-up? What is the impact of being able to give your star players rest and keep them fresher throughout the season? How likely is an injury to any one of Ramirez, Roberts, Fukudome, Soriano, Lee and Theriot? How much of an improvement is DeRosa over someone like Fontenot or Cintron? Etc., etc.

 

It will be interesting to see who is in the final deal if it takes place. All of the posturing that Cedeno, Murton, & Gallagher isn't enough from the O's perspective and that adding another player is too much from the Cubs' side means somebody is going to have to eat crow. The only compromise that I could see happening might be something like Gallagher, Cedeno, and two lower prospects so that the Cubs can say they didn't give up the original package and the O's can claim they got 4 players.

[Elrhino]

so what is the damn point of trading anyone to upgrade over (I assume) DeRosa. I just don't freaking get it.

 

Look beyond DeRosa's 2007 season and look at his entire career, and it might make more sense. I'm afraid those just assuming we're going to get 2007 production and/or 2007 health from DeRosa are going to be in for a rude awakening. (and I was one of the few who liked the aquisition last year). DeRosa is a great compliment player, but he's not someone you want to build around and depend on.

 

Any trade with the Orioles is a long shot because their front office is such a disorganized nightmare. The Bedard trade could/should have been done weeks ago before Angelos finally bumbled and stumbled his way to approving it.

 

Troy Patton's arm problems are already begining to appear again. Looks like a torn labrum. I wonder if that puts any more pressure on them to aquire a young southpaw starter.

[UBlink]

Many of those above questions have already been discussed at length in this thread, except for the possible effects of a more balanced (lefty vs. righty) line-up. The Cubs line-up without Roberts will likely be:

 

Soriano

Theriot

Lee

Ramirez

Fukudome

Soto

DeRosa

Pie

 

But with him, it would probably be:

 

Soriano

Roberts

Lee

Ramirez

Fukudome

Soto

Pie

Theriot

 

Clearly, the biggest advantage of adding Roberts to that line-up is having his OBP and base stealing ability in front of Lee, Ramirez and Fukudome. But I keep hearing Lou and Hendry talking about the difference a third left-handed bat would make and I'm wondering if this is just "ol' timey" establishment thinking rearing its head or if there are some stats to support that notion.

 

The only thing I can think of is that managers will go to the bullpen more often to match-up righty vs. righty and lefty vs. lefty more often and that the Cubs will face the back end of team's bullpen more often. Certainly, there is an advantage to facing the 6th and 7th relievers instead of a team's 3rd best and 4th best, but how much of an advantage is that?

 

Can anyone else think of any other possible advantage to not having a string of 4 or 5 right-handed batters in a row?

 

Some might say the biggest advantage of having Roberts in the lineup is about 100 fewer plate appearances for Theriot (batting 8th instead of 2nd).

[rawaction]

 

Some might say the biggest advantage of having Roberts in the lineup is about 100 fewer plate appearances for Theriot (batting 8th instead of 2nd).

 

That's the approach I've taken in the Cubs offseason the last couple years. You gotta think like the Cubs and think of logical moves that save them from themselves as much as possible. I wanted Soriano last offseason, so Hendry wouldn't spend months looking at acquiring a speedy, slap-hitter to put at the top of the lineup. Part of the reason I want Roberts now is it guarantees at least one .350+ OBP in the top 2 of the order (whether Soriano/Roberts or Roberts/Theriot). If the Cubs have a speed and top of the order fetish, they might as well get it out of someone who actually produces at a high level.

[98navigator]

IIRC, Roberts is projected to add 2-3 more wins if he were in the Cubs lineup. That is much more than a slight upgrade over DeRosa.

[Rob]

IIRC, Roberts is projected to add 2-3 more wins if he were in the Cubs lineup. That is much more than a slight upgrade over DeRosa.

 

That depends almost entirely what you think of Fontenot.

 

In all honesty, playing Ronny Cedeno instead of Theriot, and keeping Murton as our fourth OF is probably just about as good.

[David]

IIRC, Roberts is projected to add 2-3 more wins if he were in the Cubs lineup. That is much more than a slight upgrade over DeRosa.

 

That depends almost entirely what you think of Fontenot.

 

In all honesty, playing Ronny Cedeno instead of Theriot, and keeping Murton as our fourth OF is probably just about as good.

 

I think that's just straight up BRob's advantage over DeRosa. If you add in DeRosa over the next utility guy (presumably Fontenot), it probably becomes a little more than 2-3 more wins.

[Rob]

IIRC, Roberts is projected to add 2-3 more wins if he were in the Cubs lineup. That is much more than a slight upgrade over DeRosa.

 

That depends almost entirely what you think of Fontenot.

 

In all honesty, playing Ronny Cedeno instead of Theriot, and keeping Murton as our fourth OF is probably just about as good.

 

I think that's just straight up BRob's advantage over DeRosa. If you add in DeRosa over the next utility guy (presumably Fontenot), it probably becomes a little more than 2-3 more wins.

 

Last I checked, we weren't likely to just add Roberts (and his 2-3 wins) without subtracting from the major league squad.

[David]

IIRC, Roberts is projected to add 2-3 more wins if he were in the Cubs lineup. That is much more than a slight upgrade over DeRosa.

 

That depends almost entirely what you think of Fontenot.

 

In all honesty, playing Ronny Cedeno instead of Theriot, and keeping Murton as our fourth OF is probably just about as good.

 

I think that's just straight up BRob's advantage over DeRosa. If you add in DeRosa over the next utility guy (presumably Fontenot), it probably becomes a little more than 2-3 more wins.

 

Last I checked, we weren't likely to just add Roberts (and his 2-3 wins) without subtracting from the major league squad.

 

True, but I suppose it depends on how much PT you actually would have expected out of Murton, Gallagher, Cedeno, etc.

[Rob]

IIRC, Roberts is projected to add 2-3 more wins if he were in the Cubs lineup. That is much more than a slight upgrade over DeRosa.

 

That depends almost entirely what you think of Fontenot.

 

In all honesty, playing Ronny Cedeno instead of Theriot, and keeping Murton as our fourth OF is probably just about as good.

 

I think that's just straight up BRob's advantage over DeRosa. If you add in DeRosa over the next utility guy (presumably Fontenot), it probably becomes a little more than 2-3 more wins.

 

Last I checked, we weren't likely to just add Roberts (and his 2-3 wins) without subtracting from the major league squad.

 

True, but I suppose it depends on how much PT you actually would have expected out of Murton, Gallagher, Cedeno, etc.

 

Well, the PECOTA projections that have us a couple games ahead of the Brewers are counting on Cedeno stealing the starting job from Theriot, and Murton getting a few hundred PA as the best 4th OF in the league.

[98navigator]

IIRC, Roberts is projected to add 2-3 more wins if he were in the Cubs lineup. That is much more than a slight upgrade over DeRosa.

 

That depends almost entirely what you think of Fontenot.

 

In all honesty, playing Ronny Cedeno instead of Theriot, and keeping Murton as our fourth OF is probably just about as good.

 

I think that's just straight up BRob's advantage over DeRosa. If you add in DeRosa over the next utility guy (presumably Fontenot), it probably becomes a little more than 2-3 more wins.

 

Last I checked, we weren't likely to just add Roberts (and his 2-3 wins) without subtracting from the major league squad.

 

True, but I suppose it depends on how much PT you actually would have expected out of Murton, Gallagher, Cedeno, etc.

 

 

As things stand right now, without BRob, it is hard to argue that Murton and Gallagher (and even Cedeno unless he wins the SS job in ST) will be in a position to get enough playing time to have an impact on wins. Roberts alone can.

 

One way or another, trades will have to be made; There are too many pitchers and position players (and Cedeno is out of options). Plus, we have a rule 5 pitcher.

[BigbadB]

Baltimore has their own 40 man roster juggling act to do. They also have other players they would love to part with, including Ramon Hernandez, Melvin Mora, Jay Gibbons and Jay Payton.

[98navigator]

Absolutely, which is why there is speculation that they want players that won't all have to go on their 40 man roster. Plus, you have to think that the O's are going to try to cast their players off on others. The current Cubs/O's rumor is Roberts and Payton for the Cubs' players. I could also see others DFA or traded on the O's side. Edited February 21, 2008 by 98navigator

[davearm2]

When can guys be placed on the 60-day DL?

 

Perhaps the O's solution to their roster crunch is to wait until that date, and create space by putting a few guys there.

 

I don't know all the details, but I believe they have a few guys that will likely be out for awhile.

[questionmarkgrace]

apparently troy Patton is still injured according to rotoworld. So maybe, this will get things going. With patton out they need pitching. Perhaps marshall and two prospects can get this done.

[Mephistopheles]

troy patton's shoulder has been bothering him for years. this isn't a new development.

[David]

Roberts is not in camp again today.

 

Gotta wonder about this "stomach ailment." It's probably just a coincidence, but it does seem funny.

[98navigator]

Roberts is not in camp again today.

 

Gotta wonder about this "stomach ailment." It's probably just a coincidence, but it does seem funny.

Baltimore Sun

Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts returned to camp today after being rushed to a local hospital around 4:30 a.m. yesterday morning with severe stomach pain.

 

Roberts, who missed yesterday's workout, underwent blood and urine tests and a CT scan before being released. He said doctors believe he might have had a kidney stone that broke up.

[David]

Ouch. That's more detail than I needed.

[UMFan83]

Roberts is not in camp again today.

 

Gotta wonder about this "stomach ailment." It's probably just a coincidence, but it does seem funny.

Baltimore Sun

Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts returned to camp today after being rushed to a local hospital around 4:30 a.m. yesterday morning with severe stomach pain.

 

Roberts, who missed yesterday's workout, underwent blood and urine tests and a CT scan before being released. He said doctors believe he might have had a kidney stone that broke up.

 

I don't know if I want a player whose got kidney stone issues on the team. What if he misses a key AB in the playoffs because he's off passing a kidney stone? :)

[98navigator]

Stone is on The Score. In response to a caller inquiring about Cintron's presence at Spring Training, Stone said he "knows" the Cubs are working on a few things... He went on to say that in addition to Roberts, the Cubs need Sherrill to face the various lefties and switch hitters (in NY and Philly specifically). Anyway, it's hard to know if he's speculating or talking with some idea of what the Cubs are seeking. He doesn't think Eyre is reliable enough to soley depend on him.