Are the Brewers going to run away with the Central

[soccer10k]

I don't think they'll run away with the division but I think they'll end up winning it.

[RynoRules]

i don't understand why everyone discounts the brewers by saying "well, they're the brewers" as if the cubs are somehow entitled to win games and the brewers aren't.

 

Their lineup to date is better than the Cubs. I just don't think they are running away with the div., which I loosely define as being 10 games up on Sept. 1. They very well could win it, however.

 

Will it continue to be so once Soriano starts to hit? Having gotten nothing from Soriano, the Brewers have still only scored 5 more runs than the Cubs - 117-112.

 

One would hope not. The Brewers appear to have more depth in their lineup either way (not scientifically, necessarily; just based on watching them). I think the Cubs pitching might be better overall.

[Ender]

i don't understand why everyone discounts the brewers by saying "well, they're the brewers" as if the cubs are somehow entitled to win games and the brewers aren't.

 

Their lineup to date is better than the Cubs. I just don't think they are running away with the div., which I loosely define as being 10 games up on Sept. 1. They very well could win it, however.

 

Will it continue to be so once Soriano starts to hit? Having gotten nothing from Soriano, the Brewers have still only scored 5 more runs than the Cubs - 117-112.

 

Brewers will see a large upgrade at 3B at some point and Hall hasn't been hitting much so its not like they don't have underperforming guys as well. As for the run differentials, those don't tell you very much with only one months data. Truth is the Brewers have a very good end of bullpen and very midiocre middle of the bullpen so they are going to get blown out a few times and win a lot of close games all year.

 

I don't think they run away with it but I think they are the best overall team in the division so have as good a shot as anyone to take it.

[rawaction]

i don't understand why everyone discounts the brewers by saying "well, they're the brewers" as if the cubs are somehow entitled to win games and the brewers aren't.

 

Their lineup to date is better than the Cubs. I just don't think they are running away with the div., which I loosely define as being 10 games up on Sept. 1. They very well could win it, however.

 

Will it continue to be so once Soriano starts to hit? Having gotten nothing from Soriano, the Brewers have still only scored 5 more runs than the Cubs - 117-112.

 

Brewers will see a large upgrade at 3B at some point and Hall hasn't been hitting much so its not like they don't have underperforming guys as well. As for the run differentials, those don't tell you very much with only one months data. Truth is the Brewers have a very good end of bullpen and very midiocre middle of the bullpen so they are going to get blown out a few times and win a lot of close games all year.

 

I don't think they run away with it but I think they are the best overall team in the division so have as good a shot as anyone to take it.

 

Hard to say that a rookie will come in and be a huge upgrade over what they have now. Weeks and Fielder weren't great when they came in the league and they were more heralded than Braun. As for Hall, his stats are in line with his career stats. Probably will get better, but that's no guarantee with the drastic position change this year.

[brewfandave]

Hard to say that a rookie will come in and be a huge upgrade over what they have now. Weeks and Fielder weren't great when they came in the league and they were more heralded than Braun. As for Hall, his stats are in line with his career stats. Probably will get better, but that's no guarantee with the drastic position change this year.

 

Well, it's less expecting Braun to come in and be a world-beater than to come in and out-hit the equivalent of (looking at Cub stats) Cesar Izturis platooned with Jason Marquis. That's right, folks, Craig Counsell is the best third baseman on the field for the Brewers right now with an OPS of .629, and that's almost 100 points higher than his platoon-mate.

 

As for other players, it's likely that Jenkins and Mench won't each maintain their pace, but a .900 OPS from each of them hitting against the right pitchers (Jenkins v. righties/Mench v. lefties) isn't an out-of-this-world prediction. Then there's Bill Hall and Rickie Weeks, sporting BAs of .247 and .237. Bill Hall, even if you consider him being in line with career stats, is unlikely to keep hitting below .250, and Rickie Weeks won't either.

 

I think what the Cubs get from Soriano once he remembers that he's a Major Leaguer will be equaled if not outdone by Weeks and Hall doing the same.

[Balsa]

I don't think they're good enough to "run away" with the division, but they got a decent chance to win it, as much as the Cubs do.

[Ender]

Two games later the run differential no longer looks so bad.

[abuck1220]

i don't understand why everyone discounts the brewers by saying "well, they're the brewers" as if the cubs are somehow entitled to win games and the brewers aren't.

 

Their lineup to date is better than the Cubs. I just don't think they are running away with the div., which I loosely define as being 10 games up on Sept. 1. They very well could win it, however.

 

Will it continue to be so once Soriano starts to hit? Having gotten nothing from Soriano, the Brewers have still only scored 5 more runs than the Cubs - 117-112.

 

and will hill, lilly and marquis continue to be three of the best pitchers in the NL?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

i don't understand why everyone discounts the brewers by saying "well, they're the brewers" as if the cubs are somehow entitled to win games and the brewers aren't.

 

Their lineup to date is better than the Cubs. I just don't think they are running away with the div., which I loosely define as being 10 games up on Sept. 1. They very well could win it, however.

 

Will it continue to be so once Soriano starts to hit? Having gotten nothing from Soriano, the Brewers have still only scored 5 more runs than the Cubs - 117-112.

 

and will hill, lilly and marquis continue to be three of the best pitchers in the NL?

 

Will Z continue to suck? Will our 5 starter spot continue to put up a 10+ ERA?

[Ender]

i don't understand why everyone discounts the brewers by saying "well, they're the brewers" as if the cubs are somehow entitled to win games and the brewers aren't.

 

Their lineup to date is better than the Cubs. I just don't think they are running away with the div., which I loosely define as being 10 games up on Sept. 1. They very well could win it, however.

 

Will it continue to be so once Soriano starts to hit? Having gotten nothing from Soriano, the Brewers have still only scored 5 more runs than the Cubs - 117-112.

 

and will hill, lilly and marquis continue to be three of the best pitchers in the NL?

 

Will Z continue to suck? Will our 5 starter spot continue to put up a 10+ ERA?

 

Yes Z will continue to suck, though the 5th slot is sure to be better.

[n l doormat]

Doesn't Melvin(?) have more resources to make a deadline deal with?

[abuck1220]

i don't understand why everyone discounts the brewers by saying "well, they're the brewers" as if the cubs are somehow entitled to win games and the brewers aren't.

 

Their lineup to date is better than the Cubs. I just don't think they are running away with the div., which I loosely define as being 10 games up on Sept. 1. They very well could win it, however.

 

Will it continue to be so once Soriano starts to hit? Having gotten nothing from Soriano, the Brewers have still only scored 5 more runs than the Cubs - 117-112.

 

and will hill, lilly and marquis continue to be three of the best pitchers in the NL?

 

Will Z continue to suck? Will our 5 starter spot continue to put up a 10+ ERA?

 

probably not. so hill, lilly and marquis regress and z and 5th starter improve...probably evens out. which brings the cubs to where they are right now, which is a lot of games behind the brewers.

[Chocolate Milk]

I hope not.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

i don't understand why everyone discounts the brewers by saying "well, they're the brewers" as if the cubs are somehow entitled to win games and the brewers aren't.

 

Their lineup to date is better than the Cubs. I just don't think they are running away with the div., which I loosely define as being 10 games up on Sept. 1. They very well could win it, however.

 

Will it continue to be so once Soriano starts to hit? Having gotten nothing from Soriano, the Brewers have still only scored 5 more runs than the Cubs - 117-112.

 

and will hill, lilly and marquis continue to be three of the best pitchers in the NL?

 

Will Z continue to suck? Will our 5 starter spot continue to put up a 10+ ERA?

 

probably not. so hill, lilly and marquis regress and z and 5th starter improve...probably evens out. which brings the cubs to where they are right now, which is a lot of games behind the brewers.

 

And a 3rd order record that's several games better than Milwaukee. If the Cubs continue to play like they are now they're going to be in great shape. Going forward, if they play to their pythag winning pct. they'd win over 90 games, even including their 10-14 start.

[Keener98]

i don't understand why everyone discounts the brewers by saying "well, they're the brewers" as if the cubs are somehow entitled to win games and the brewers aren't.

 

Their lineup to date is better than the Cubs. I just don't think they are running away with the div., which I loosely define as being 10 games up on Sept. 1. They very well could win it, however.

 

Will it continue to be so once Soriano starts to hit? Having gotten nothing from Soriano, the Brewers have still only scored 5 more runs than the Cubs - 117-112.

 

and will hill, lilly and marquis continue to be three of the best pitchers in the NL?

 

Will Z continue to suck? Will our 5 starter spot continue to put up a 10+ ERA?

 

Yes Z will continue to suck, though the 5th slot is sure to be better.

 

And your basis for this is what?

[Soul]

I don't think they're good enough to "run away" with the division, but they got a decent chance to win it, as much as the Cubs do.

 

I feel comfortable in saying the Crew has a better chance of winning it than the Cubs. They probably have the best shot of any of the teams. If Sheets gets hurt, I'd want to modify that opinion. But right now, I'm looking at the pitching and it seems the Crew has the best staff IMO.

[98navigator]

i don't understand why everyone discounts the brewers by saying "well, they're the brewers" as if the cubs are somehow entitled to win games and the brewers aren't.

 

Their lineup to date is better than the Cubs. I just don't think they are running away with the div., which I loosely define as being 10 games up on Sept. 1. They very well could win it, however.

 

Will it continue to be so once Soriano starts to hit? Having gotten nothing from Soriano, the Brewers have still only scored 5 more runs than the Cubs - 117-112.

 

and will hill, lilly and marquis continue to be three of the best pitchers in the NL?

 

Will Z continue to suck? Will our 5 starter spot continue to put up a 10+ ERA?

 

probably not. so hill, lilly and marquis regress and z and 5th starter improve...probably evens out. which brings the cubs to where they are right now, which is a lot of games behind the brewers.

 

And a 3rd order record that's several games better than Milwaukee. If the Cubs continue to play like they are now they're going to be in great shape. Going forward, if they play to their pythag winning pct. they'd win over 90 games, even including their 10-14 start.

 

These are my thoughts exactly.

[Soul]

Ahhh, but is it the losing that is the anomaly, or is it the pythag?

 

One could just as easily say "if the Cubs continue losing, their pythag will come down"

[FergieJ31]

Ahhh, but is it the losing that is the anomaly, or is it the pythag?

 

One could just as easily say "if the Cubs continue losing, their pythag will come down"

 

Exactly. I never understood the assumption that actual WL % mean reverts to the Pythag WL % ... it could just as easily go the other way ... or they both mean revert to a % somewhere in between.

[98navigator]

So, the Cubs have little chance to reach their anticipated winning percentage while the Brewers will continue to overachieve...

[FergieJ31]

So the Cubs have little chance to reach their anticipated winning percentage while the Brewers will continue to overachieve their pythagorean W-L...

 

Are there any studies that look at lead-lag relationships in Pythag WL % vs actual WL %? I havent seen any evidence that Pythag WL % has strong predictive value, but maybe I missed something.

 

Just to be precise, the claim is that the Cubs won't necessarily start winning games at the rate indicated by their current pythag %; the pythag number could just as easily drop toward 42%, the current actual WL. No one said anything about "little chance".

[Soul]

So, the Cubs have little chance to reach their anticipated winning percentage while the Brewers will continue to overachieve...

 

Well, after all, we are talking about the Cubs here.

[98navigator]

Just to be precise, the claim is that the Cubs won't necessarily start winning games at the rate indicated by their current pythag %; the pythag number could just as easily drop toward 42%, the current actual WL. No one said anything about "little chance".

 

IMO, that's implied in a thread that asks the question about the Brewers "running away" with the division. Based on 24 games people (including me) are drawing conclusions about the season... Looking at the numbers closely, I can't help but notice that the Cubs have the most upside in the division. I see the Brewers as lucky, to a degree, at this point.

[Soul]

Just to be precise, the claim is that the Cubs won't necessarily start winning games at the rate indicated by their current pythag %; the pythag number could just as easily drop toward 42%, the current actual WL. No one said anything about "little chance".

 

IMO, that's implied in a thread that asks the question about the Brewers "running away" with the division. Based on 24 games people (including me) are drawing conclusions about the season... Looking at the numbers closely, I can't help but notice that the Cubs have the most upside in the division. I see the Brewers as lucky, to a degree, at this point.

 

Well, if we want to look at things positively from a Cubs standpoint, don't we actually have the best head-to-head in the division against the Crew (it's 3-3 IIRC)?

 

I mean they've been rolling through the Central like it's nothing

[98navigator]

Just to be precise, the claim is that the Cubs won't necessarily start winning games at the rate indicated by their current pythag %; the pythag number could just as easily drop toward 42%, the current actual WL. No one said anything about "little chance".

 

IMO, that's implied in a thread that asks the question about the Brewers "running away" with the division. Based on 24 games people (including me) are drawing conclusions about the season... Looking at the numbers closely, I can't help but notice that the Cubs have the most upside in the division. I see the Brewers as lucky, to a degree, at this point.

 

Well, if we want to look at things positively from a Cubs standpoint, don't we actually have the best head-to-head in the division against the Crew (it's 3-3 IIRC)?

 

Yes, the Cubs are the only team in the division to have won a series against them thus far.