Are the Brewers going to run away with the Central

[Soul]

It's a fair question at this stage, if Mil. plays .500 the rest of the way, they'll be around 85-86 wins. Personally, I think they will play better than .500 from here on out, but obviously not at their current pace,

 

For the Cubs, they'll have to go 74-62 from here on out or play 54% ball (88 wins in a 162 game season) to get to 86 wins.

 

A decent sized winning or losing streak would significantly alter those numbers though. The best thing to say right now is that it's still early. The Crew had a great month. Maybe they'll have more great months, and maybe they won't.

 

They don't have to have any great months from here on out, they could play .500 from here on out and equal the win total of what I expected to win or come close to winning this division.

 

They've set themselves up nicely in a bland division, unlike Cincy of last year, they have the talent to con't to win.

 

You're sort of missing the point. For the sake of argument, let's say they have a 9-18 month of May. Now what kind of baseball do they have to play to get to 90 wins? Significantly over .500 So one bad month and suddenly they've got to play much better than what your April numbers say.

 

It's early yet. April is April.

[UK1679666180]

It's early but they're still 9 games over .500, regardless if it's April or Sept. that might win the division when all is said & done.

 

If you're counting on Milwaukee playing less than .500 the rest of the way moreso than Cubs playing good enough to catch them, there's the flaw w/the Cubs.

 

Whoever gets to 90 wins will win the NLC, Milwaukee has given themselves the best chance.

[rynefan]

They've got just as good a chance as anyone in the division, but I don't think they'll keep up this pace. I hope not for the Cubs sake.

[jersey cubs fan]

They've got just as good a chance as anyone in the division, but I don't think they'll keep up this pace. I hope not for the Cubs sake.

 

No, I don't think they have a realistic chance for 106 wins.

[rynefan]

Who said they had a realistic chance for 106 wins? I just don't think they'll be there in late Sept.

[98navigator]

Who said they had a realistic chance for 106 wins? I just don't think they'll be there in late Sept.

 

He was referring to you hoping they don't keep up this pace; 106 wins...

[jersey cubs fan]

Who said they had a realistic chance for 106 wins? I just don't think they'll be there in late Sept.

 

He was referring to you hoping they don't keep up this pace; 106 wins...

 

What he said.

 

 

They are on pace for 106 wins. Odds are that won't continue. But even if their pace slows considerably, they've got a great shot at 90 wins. And they'd really have to struggle to only get 85.

[98navigator]

While it's true that the Brewers are 8 games over .500, the Cubs are only 4 games back in the loss column, after today, and they will have played 2 fewer games. If the Cubs take care of their own business they should be fine. The Cubs and Brewers have comparable schedules over the next month: Both will play PIT and WSH over the course of the next 7 days and PHI and NYM the following week. After interleague play, both teams will play SD, LAD, FLA, and ATL before playing one another June 4-6.

 

Obviously, the Cubs need to win those series/and or sweep to keep pace (or perhaps gain ground on the Brewers if they have a hiccup). It could very well mean that the Cubs are in position to lead the division by the end of May/start of June (of course, they could also be farther behind but I happen to think that they were underachieving in April and are now ready to win more consistently).

Edited May 4, 2007 by 98navigator

[CaliforniaRaisin]

90 wins should easily win the division.

[Ender]

Hardy, Jenkins, Fielder, and Hall all have BABIPs that would be difficult to continue to sustain over the course of the season. Injuries and depth problems have hurt the Brewers in the past (although, I think Gallardo's got the goods to be a quality starter). I think they're a better team than they've been in the past, but I'm still skeptical about whether they'll be able to win the division.

 

Fielder, Hall and Hardy are all league average in BABIP(right around .300) so not sure what you are talking about. The Brewers probably have the most depth of any team in the NL, what they lack is top end talent not depth. Its fine if you don't think they will stay in 1st but at least use arguments that make some sense.

 

Entering the season I thought the Cubs pitching would hold them back and the Brewers bullpen would hold them back. So far neither of these have been a major weakness. From May 11th until May 30th the Brewers play every game against a playoff calibre team so we'll see how they come out of it. After that stretch I think you'll get a much better view at how good the team is.

Edited May 3, 2007 by Ender

[Backtobanks]

It's never a good idea to extrapolate using April's (or any one month's) numbers. Otherwise you will have people hitting 100 HRs, winning 30+ games, and teams winning 105+ games.

[UK1679666180]

It's never a good idea to extrapolate using April's (or any one month's) numbers. Otherwise you will have people hitting 100 HRs, winning 30+ games, and teams winning 105+ games.

 

They likely won't remain constant but I think at the end of the year (unless injured) you'll see ARod among the league leaders in HRs and Beckett among the league leaders in wins, a main reason why they'll be up there is b/c of the hot start. I think Milwaukee will be at the top or near the top for most of the year b/c of this start and b/c overall they have some talent on that club.

[Soul]

It's never a good idea to extrapolate using April's (or any one month's) numbers. Otherwise you will have people hitting 100 HRs, winning 30+ games, and teams winning 105+ games.

 

They likely won't remain constant but I think at the end of the year (unless injured) you'll see ARod among the league leaders in HRs and Beckett among the league leaders in wins, a main reason why they'll be up there is b/c of the hot start. I think Milwaukee will be at the top or near the top for most of the year b/c of this start and b/c overall they have some talent on that club.

 

They definitely have more talent than I've seen since they joined the NL. I'm actually pretty happy about it -- I live in Wisconsin and the Crew has been down for so long, so unless it's the Cubs I try to cast a positive eye towards the Brewers when I can.

[bukie]

They very well could run away with the NL Central. Especially if no other team plays well.

[jmajew]

We shouldn't worry about what the Brewers or any other team are doing yet. Our first priority should be to get this Cubs team playing the type of ball they are capable of. If this happens it will be a very very tight race come September.

 

If you worry about what other teams are doing you are only going to hurt yourselves in the long haul.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

We shouldn't worry about what the Brewers or any other team are doing yet. Our first priority should be to get this Cubs team playing the type of ball they are capable of. If this happens it will be a very very tight race come September.

 

If you worry about what other teams are doing you are only going to hurt yourselves in the long haul.

 

That may be true about the players, but whether I'm worrying about the Brewers or not has no impact on what the Cubs do on the field.

 

While it is true in sports that teams need to be focused on what they can control, we as fans don't need nor have such restrictions.

 

My worrying about what other teams do has no effect on the Cubs, so if we wish to discuss the Brewers or any other team in regards to this season, it has merit.

[98navigator]

Hey brewers fan, quick question. Why isn't Sheets K'ing anyone?

 

Sheets is still struggling with his mechanics right now. He has been leaving his curveball up in the zone and has not had his usual pinpoint control. He said he figured it out midway through the start against St. Louis and finally felt like the old Sheets. Whatever that means. Expect his K rate to go up when the weather starts becoming warmer and more humid. Sheets loves throwing his curveball in high humidity.

 

Hopefully he figured it out a little bit in his last start, but he has not been super sharp as of yet.

 

As far as using the Cardinals series as a gauge of the Brewers, that was not my point. I was just saying how a few games that are blowouts really effects the overall run differential of a team. The Brewers hadn't really blown anybody out before the Cards series, but had been blown out 3 times. It just evened things out to where the numbers should be. The Brewers are a good team and a totally different team from past years. People need to realize it is more than just luck that they are winning games.

 

Once St. Louis can put the whole Hancock thing behind them a little bit, you will realize that they are not that good of a team. It's convenient to use a teammates death for poor play, but it would inspire me personally to try to win even harder in his honor. You can play that card only so long. It's tragic yes, but don't use it as an excuse to say that the Brewers aren't a good team for sweeping the Cards just because they were in mourning. The Cubs had beaten them twice before the death of Hancock. The Cards are simply not playing good baseball right now.

 

I would say that the Cubs are the most serious threat to the Brewers this year, especially if Lilly and Marquis continue to pitch as well as they have and Soriano starts to play like he is capable. It should be an interesting finish. The Astros and Cardinals lineups don't scare me and the Pirates are where the Brewers were a year or two ago. I hope teams keep thinking that "well it's the Brewers so they can't possibly be a good team and keep this up" because they will simply be overlooking a very capable team with no glaring weaknesses.

 

 

No glaring weaknesses?

 

None.

 

He has a point, the Brewers are a capable team. I'm not going to get into a battle of weaknesses, and obviously I am biased, but I think at the end of the day, the Cubs are a better team, on paper, than the Brewers. If this doesn't flesh itself out over the season like many of us are hoping it will, than in the end there is no other conclusion that the Brewers were the better team this year. But they do have weaknesses that seem pretty obvious, and while they've played better than the Cubs thus far, they haven't played that much better to conclude that they're the 'team to beat' in the central, mostly because I don't believe that there is a team to beat in the central. It's up for grabs.

 

The biggest and most glaring weakness of the Brewers in recent history, including this season, has been their team defense. They have yielded the most unearned runs (UER) in the League (18) and, until facing a devastated Cardinal's team, they had allowed more runs than they scored. Eventually, this trend is going to be reflected in the standings; specifically in losses. They have been lucky thus far but it's hard to believe that they will continue to be successful given this pattern.

 

THT

 

Team Fielding Stats
                                                Plus/Minus           Fielding
        UER    TE    FE    SB   CS%          Pit   Fld   Tot        Grnd   Air
ARI       12     6    14    11   35%          -14    12    -2           8     4
ATL       11     5    11    17   35%           -8    -3   -11          -1    -1
CHN        4     6     6    11   31%           10    14    24           4    10
CIN       14     5    14    12   29%           -5    -4   -10          -4     0
COL       13     6     5    10   38%           -1   -12   -14          -1   -11
FLA       14     7     9    17   15%           -4   -33   -37         -24    -9
HOU       10     4    14    11   31%            0    -3    -2          -4     1
LAN       10    11     9    16   36%           -2    -3    -5          -1    -2
MIL       18     7    12     7   22%           -8    -1    -8          -2     1
WAS       14    13    12    19   14%           11    -1    11           1    -1
NYN       14     5     7    12   33%            5    13    18          15    -2
PHI        7     8     6    18   25%          -11     0   -11           6    -6
PIT        4     4     9    16   38%            2   -10    -8          -1    -9
STL       14     9    11    10   38%            3     2     5           3     0
SD         6     7     9    31    9%            6     9    15           7     3
SF         7     6     8     9   36%           -8    25    16          13    11

League   172   109   156   227   28%          -25     6   -19          19   -13

[seanimal]

The biggest and most glaring weakness of the Brewers in recent history, including this season, has been their team defense. They have yielded the most unearned runs (UER) in the League (18) and, until facing a devastated Cardinal's team, they had allowed more runs than they scored. Eventually, this trend is going to be reflected in the standings; specifically in losses. They have been lucky thus far but it's hard to believe that they will continue to be successful given this pattern.

 

THT

 

Team Fielding Stats
                                                Plus/Minus           Fielding
        UER    TE    FE    SB   CS%          Pit   Fld   Tot        Grnd   Air
ARI       12     6    14    11   35%          -14    12    -2           8     4
ATL       11     5    11    17   35%           -8    -3   -11          -1    -1
CHN        4     6     6    11   31%           10    14    24           4    10
CIN       14     5    14    12   29%           -5    -4   -10          -4     0
COL       13     6     5    10   38%           -1   -12   -14          -1   -11
FLA       14     7     9    17   15%           -4   -33   -37         -24    -9
HOU       10     4    14    11   31%            0    -3    -2          -4     1
LAN       10    11     9    16   36%           -2    -3    -5          -1    -2
MIL       18     7    12     7   22%           -8    -1    -8          -2     1
WAS       14    13    12    19   14%           11    -1    11           1    -1
NYN       14     5     7    12   33%            5    13    18          15    -2
PHI        7     8     6    18   25%          -11     0   -11           6    -6
PIT        4     4     9    16   38%            2   -10    -8          -1    -9
STL       14     9    11    10   38%            3     2     5           3     0
SD         6     7     9    31    9%            6     9    15           7     3
SF         7     6     8     9   36%           -8    25    16          13    11

League   172   109   156   227   28%          -25     6   -19          19   -13

 

Exactly.

[abuck1220]

i wish the cubs' biggest weakness was team defense.

[TruffleShuffle]

i wish the cubs' biggest weakness was team defense.

 

no you don't, because for the Cubs this would mean

 

-mediocre pitching

-awful hitting

-Bad News Bears-like defense

[Ender]

The biggest and most glaring weakness of the Brewers in recent history, including this season, has been their team defense. They have yielded the most unearned runs (UER) in the League (18) and, until facing a devastated Cardinal's team, they had allowed more runs than they scored. Eventually, this trend is going to be reflected in the standings; specifically in losses. They have been lucky thus far but it's hard to believe that they will continue to be successful given this pattern.

 

THT

 

Team Fielding Stats
                                                Plus/Minus           Fielding
        UER    TE    FE    SB   CS%          Pit   Fld   Tot        Grnd   Air
ARI       12     6    14    11   35%          -14    12    -2           8     4
ATL       11     5    11    17   35%           -8    -3   -11          -1    -1
CHN        4     6     6    11   31%           10    14    24           4    10
CIN       14     5    14    12   29%           -5    -4   -10          -4     0
COL       13     6     5    10   38%           -1   -12   -14          -1   -11
FLA       14     7     9    17   15%           -4   -33   -37         -24    -9
HOU       10     4    14    11   31%            0    -3    -2          -4     1
LAN       10    11     9    16   36%           -2    -3    -5          -1    -2
MIL       18     7    12     7   22%           -8    -1    -8          -2     1
WAS       14    13    12    19   14%           11    -1    11           1    -1
NYN       14     5     7    12   33%            5    13    18          15    -2
PHI        7     8     6    18   25%          -11     0   -11           6    -6
PIT        4     4     9    16   38%            2   -10    -8          -1    -9
STL       14     9    11    10   38%            3     2     5           3     0
SD         6     7     9    31    9%            6     9    15           7     3
SF         7     6     8     9   36%           -8    25    16          13    11

League   172   109   156   227   28%          -25     6   -19          19   -13

 

Exactly.

 

That chart of course includes a bunch of throwing errors by Hall his first week in CF that he's fixed. It also doesn't really mean much since the defensive problems are already indicated in runs allowed.

 

Run differentials mean almost nothing right now, you simply need more data to make them meaningful. If the Brewers have scored less than they have given up at the all star break we can tell, over one month its just useless info. Right now they stand at 15 projected wins and 18 actual wins, thats really not that far off base given how strong the end of the bullpen has been and how week the bottom end has been.

 

If that isn't enough a -1 FLD puts them 9th in the NL in fielding which is average. The -8 for pitchers means the Brewers pitchers have been allowing a lot of balls to be put in play, with such a small sample size thats most likely just due to luck more than anything since the team K's plenty enough.

[Outshined_One]

Fielder, Hall and Hardy are all league average in BABIP(right around .300) so not sure what you are talking about. The Brewers probably have the most depth of any team in the NL, what they lack is top end talent not depth. Its fine if you don't think they will stay in 1st but at least use arguments that make some sense.

 

My understanding is that a .300 BABIP is above league average in BABIP (which I believe is somewhere between .280-.290) and all of those guys I mentioned have managed to hit above the .300 level to varying degrees. I know I singled out some players to make a point, but here are the BABIPs of the Brewers over the first month with more than 50 ABs (ABs in parentheses):

 

Hardy (111): .301

Fielder (106): .303

Weeks (101): .250

Hall (95): .308

Estrada (82): .348

Jenkins (78): .393

Mench (72): .328

Graffanino (58): .265

Hart (58): .319

Counsell (55): .267

 

As a team: .301

 

Look, this team isn't due to come crashing down into the gutter from an offensive standpoint, but a number of their players have been above average when it comes to BABIP and it's reflected in the team's numbers as a whole. These numbers inevitably regress to a mean unless the team manages to get a horseshoe crammed up its rear (which is a possibility with this team). They're due for a few slumps and adjustments, which will make the coming months really interesting.

 

Moreover, your depth/top end talent argument has me scratching my head. Are you saying that their bench is able to replace or match production if someone goes down, but that they do not have the top end talent in the starting lineup that a team such as the Cubs has? Or are you making another argument?

[98navigator]

The biggest and most glaring weakness of the Brewers in recent history, including this season, has been their team defense. They have yielded the most unearned runs (UER) in the League (18) and, until facing a devastated Cardinal's team, they had allowed more runs than they scored. Eventually, this trend is going to be reflected in the standings; specifically in losses. They have been lucky thus far but it's hard to believe that they will continue to be successful given this pattern.

 

THT

 

Team Fielding Stats
                                                Plus/Minus           Fielding
        UER    TE    FE    SB   CS%          Pit   Fld   Tot        Grnd   Air
ARI       12     6    14    11   35%          -14    12    -2           8     4
ATL       11     5    11    17   35%           -8    -3   -11          -1    -1
CHN        4     6     6    11   31%           10    14    24           4    10
CIN       14     5    14    12   29%           -5    -4   -10          -4     0
COL       13     6     5    10   38%           -1   -12   -14          -1   -11
FLA       14     7     9    17   15%           -4   -33   -37         -24    -9
HOU       10     4    14    11   31%            0    -3    -2          -4     1
LAN       10    11     9    16   36%           -2    -3    -5          -1    -2
MIL       18     7    12     7   22%           -8    -1    -8          -2     1
WAS       14    13    12    19   14%           11    -1    11           1    -1
NYN       14     5     7    12   33%            5    13    18          15    -2
PHI        7     8     6    18   25%          -11     0   -11           6    -6
PIT        4     4     9    16   38%            2   -10    -8          -1    -9
STL       14     9    11    10   38%            3     2     5           3     0
SD         6     7     9    31    9%            6     9    15           7     3
SF         7     6     8     9   36%           -8    25    16          13    11

League   172   109   156   227   28%          -25     6   -19          19   -13

 

Exactly.

 

That chart of course includes a bunch of throwing errors by Hall his first week in CF that he's fixed. It also doesn't really mean much since the defensive problems are already indicated in runs allowed.

 

Run differentials mean almost nothing right now, you simply need more data to make them meaningful. If the Brewers have scored less than they have given up at the all star break we can tell, over one month its just useless info. Right now they stand at 15 projected wins and 18 actual wins, thats really not that far off base given how strong the end of the bullpen has been and how week the bottom end has been.

 

If that isn't enough a -1 FLD puts them 9th in the NL in fielding which is average. The -8 for pitchers means the Brewers pitchers have been allowing a lot of balls to be put in play, with such a small sample size thats most likely just due to luck more than anything since the team K's plenty enough.

 

You are ignoring the fact that their defense has been questionable for a while. This isn't an aberration that has been fixed in the first few weeks of the season. Also, if the team is giving up unearned runs it lessens the effectiveness of the pitching staff in the long run.

 

The errors will lead to runs (they already have). The Brewers just signed Suppan. In his three previous seasons with the Cardinals, he was predominantly a groundball/groundout pitcher (1.5 GO/AO). In his time with the Brewers, Suppan has become an air-out pitcher (0.95 GO/AO) even though he hasn't changed his pitching style. The only explanation is that the defense behind him has decreased significantly. In fact, every starting pitcher in their rotation has yielded at least one unearned run and 8 of the 13 pitchers they have used this season have yielded an unearned run(s).

[98navigator]

Fielder, Hall and Hardy are all league average in BABIP(right around .300) so not sure what you are talking about. The Brewers probably have the most depth of any team in the NL, what they lack is top end talent not depth. Its fine if you don't think they will stay in 1st but at least use arguments that make some sense.

 

My understanding is that a .300 BABIP is above league average in BABIP (which I believe is somewhere between .280-.290) and all of those guys I mentioned have managed to hit above the .300 level to varying degrees. I know I singled out some players to make a point, but here are the BABIPs of the Brewers over the first month with more than 50 ABs (ABs in parentheses):

 

Hardy (111): .301

Fielder (106): .303

Weeks (101): .250

Hall (95): .308

Estrada (82): .348

Jenkins (78): .393

Mench (72): .328

Graffanino (58): .265

Hart (58): .319

Counsell (55): .267

 

As a team: .301

 

Look, this team isn't due to come crashing down into the gutter from an offensive standpoint, but a number of their players have been above average when it comes to BABIP and it's reflected in the team's numbers as a whole. These numbers inevitably regress to a mean unless the team manages to get a horseshoe crammed up its rear (which is a possibility with this team). They're due for a few slumps and adjustments, which will make the coming months really interesting.

 

Moreover, your depth/top end talent argument has me scratching my head. Are you saying that their bench is able to replace or match production if someone goes down, but that they do not have the top end talent in the starting lineup that a team such as the Cubs has? Or are you making another argument?

 

The offensive regression will make it difficult to impossible to "hit their way out of" committing errors and allowing unearned runs to score.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

The Brewers are one of the more solidly built teams in baseball.

 

I really like their pitching, especially Bush's potential. He's everyones favorite sleeper pick, but I was calling this when he was with the Blue Jays so I'll stick to it.

 

Sheets is dominant if he's healthy and together. I think he'll end up having a very good season, even if his start has been pretty meh.

 

Suppan is a solid starter, and I thought he was one of the better FA signings this offseason.

 

Capuano is another good, young arm.

 

Fielder and Weeks are really coming into their own as players. I hated JJ Hardy, but he's growing on me, and Hall is a beast.

 

Honestly, I picked them to win the Central over us and the Cards...which kinda sucks considering it all...

 

They'll be a strong team this year at worst. They'll be a serious contender next year if they have a good offseason, and by '09/'10 they could be one of the better teams in the NL.