Are the Brewers going to run away with the Central

[RegulusBlue]

I'm not so sure that Pythag % is relevant here.

 

The reason for this is that nearly every time we're in a tight game, bad managerial decisions cause our club to perform below its actual level. Whether its letting Floyd and Jones bat against a lefty, wasting Ward or Murton off the bench in earlier non-scoring chances, leaving us with Cedeno or Izturis to deal with, or putting Eyre or Ohman in for any reason, Lou hurts the team with his strategy, or lack thereof at the end of each game.

 

This also doesn't take into account that our offense is only great when Lou isn't screwing around with stealing, bunts, and hit and run plays for no reason. Unless we get up big or down big early in the game, Lou wastes outs consistently, especially at the bottom of the lineup, where he insisted on playing complete offensive scrubs until recently. I've no problem with a pitcher bunting (except Z and Marquis), but this other stuff is crap. For Christ's sake stop trying to steal third (that goes for everyone)!

 

Many predictive measures are based on a team's projected performance. I would argue that our blowout wins drive an underrated Phythag % that is dragged back down by poor management in games that Lou keeps close simply by wasting outs consistently.

 

In other words, this team should win a bunch of games given a 162 game season via run production, but Lou will cost us many of those big innings by foolishly bunting a man over or running us into a DP via a hit and run.

[98navigator]

As a whole, I see the bullpen as a strength and I expect the offense will prove to be as well. However, I think the biggest problems in April were the bullpen and a lack of hitting in late innings (one could argue that the bullpen's problems contributed to or exposed the lack of hitting in late game situations because they put the offense in catch-up mode). Of course, Zambrano and Wade Miller's problems didn't help. I have to think that Zambrano will be much better going forward.

[CubColtPacer]

So the Cubs have little chance to reach their anticipated winning percentage while the Brewers will continue to overachieve their pythagorean W-L...

 

Are there any studies that look at lead-lag relationships in Pythag WL % vs actual WL %? I havent seen any evidence that Pythag WL % has strong predictive value, but maybe I missed something.

 

Just to be precise, the claim is that the Cubs won't necessarily start winning games at the rate indicated by their current pythag %; the pythag number could just as easily drop toward 42%, the current actual WL. No one said anything about "little chance".

 

That's an interesting question. These are the teams last year that were 2 games or more off their Pythagorean projection after April. I am putting their actual winning percentage after April, their expected winning percentage, and then what their actual winning percentage at the end of the year was.

 

Edit: I also am including the ending Pythagorean percentage per a request.

 

Red Sox. Actual-.577, Pythag-.461, End-.530, endpyth-.500

Yankees. Actual-.541, Pythag-.667, End-.598, endpyth-.586

Atlanta. Actual-.440, Pythag-.520, End. .488, endpyth-.525

Washington. Actual-.308, Pythag-.423, End-.438, endpyth-.493

Florida. Actual-.261, Pythag-.435, End-.481, endpyth-.432

Cincy. Actual-.692, Pythag-.577, End-.493, endpyth-.469

Houston. Actual-.630, Pythag-.560, End-.506, endpyth-.512

Cubs. Actual.583, Pythag-.500, End-.407, endpyth-.432

Pirates. Actual-.257, Pythag-.333, End-.413, endpyth-.438

Rockies-Actual-.577, Pythag-.500, End-.469, endpyth-.500

San Fran-Actual-.520, Pythag-.440, End-.472, endpyth-.472

Los Angeles-Actual-.462, Pythag-.538, End-.543, endpyth-.537

 

The 2 AL teams finished closer to their actual percentage than their Pythagorean percentage. The NL teams? All 10 of them finished closer to their Pythagorean percentage at the end of April than their actual percentage, but for some of them neither one was very accurate. The Cubs mid-point would be .500-so from this one season data, it would seem to indicate that they are likely to be over .500 at the end of the year.

 

From looking at the 2005 data quickly, it looks like a couple teams were closer to their actual, but most were again closer to their pythagorean numbers.

Edited May 2, 2007 by CubColtPacer

[Jake]

Run away? No.

 

Win? Possibly. Somethings need to go their way that haven't gone there way in the past. The biggest being the health of their starting pitching.

 

Really, anyone can win this division this year. One team is going to get hot sometime in August and put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division.

 

The division will be won with a win total in the low 80s again. I think the difference this year is the win total for sixth place will be closer to the mid 70s.

[Soul]

Closer to pythag, yes, but I'm seeing a significant number of teams that finished lower than both the April winning % and the pythag, which makes me lean towards saying the pythag at this point just doesn't indicate very much at all.

 

Just look at the Cubs, who finished nearly 100 points lower than their pythag...

 

Thanks for posting those numbers, BTW

[FergieJ31]

CCP - thanks for putting that together, that was fast! I'd be curious to see the final pythag numbers too. If the pythag numbers are truly predictive, the April pythag/Final actual correlation would be higher than the April actual/Final pythag correlation.

[98navigator]

Closer to pythag, yes, but I'm seeing a significant number of teams that finished lower than both the April winning % and the pythag, which makes me lean towards saying the pythag at this point just doesn't indicate very much at all.

 

Just look at the Cubs, who finished nearly 100 points lower than their pythag...

 

Thanks for posting those numbers, BTW

 

The 2006 Cubs were an anomaly because, for the most part, the team that played in April didn't play the whole season. Their anticipated winning percentage would have been considerably less if it had been based on the team that played the majority of the games...

[CubColtPacer]

CCP - thanks for putting that together, that was fast! I'd be curious to see the final pythag numbers too. If the pythag numbers are truly predictive, the April pythag/Final actual correlation would be higher than the April actual/Final pythag correlation.

 

I'll go ahead and edit those into my post as well-just a minute on that.

[jersey cubs fan]

Closer to pythag, yes, but I'm seeing a significant number of teams that finished lower than both the April winning % and the pythag, which makes me lean towards saying the pythag at this point just doesn't indicate very much at all.

 

Just look at the Cubs, who finished nearly 100 points lower than their pythag...

 

Thanks for posting those numbers, BTW

 

Yeah, if those numbers mean anything it's that we can hope for the Cubs to get to .500 by season's end. And with the Brewers already 8 games over .500, it would take a record well below their current actual and pythag records to return to .500.

 

Bottom line is the Cubs will have to play a lot better than they have so far to make up for their bad start and give themselves a shot at a good record.

[jersey cubs fan]

Run away? No.

 

Win? Possibly. Somethings need to go their way that haven't gone there way in the past. The biggest being the health of their starting pitching.

 

Really, anyone can win this division this year. One team is going to get hot sometime in August and put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division.

 

The division will be won with a win total in the low 80s again. I think the difference this year is the win total for sixth place will be closer to the mid 70s.

 

For this to be true (winner taking the league with a win total in the low 80's), the Brewers would have to play much worse from here on out.

 

They are 17-9, .654 w%, on pace for 106 wins. Obviously that is not sustainable. However, in order to finish with a win total in the low 80s, let's say 83, they'd have to finish 66-70, playing .485 ball. Their hot start, whether influenced by luck or not, has provided a cushion for them to coast to an 85 win season (by going .500 the rest of the way). All they have to do is play to their current "expected" pace, of .537 ball, to get to 90 wins. That would be 73-63.

 

I would say they have more than a good chance to finish the season with more than a win total in the low 80s.

[Jake]

Run away? No.

 

Win? Possibly. Somethings need to go their way that haven't gone there way in the past. The biggest being the health of their starting pitching.

 

Really, anyone can win this division this year. One team is going to get hot sometime in August and put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division.

 

The division will be won with a win total in the low 80s again. I think the difference this year is the win total for sixth place will be closer to the mid 70s.

 

For this to be true (winner taking the league with a win total in the low 80's), the Brewers would have to play much worse from here on out.

 

They are 17-9, .654 w%, on pace for 106 wins. Obviously that is not sustainable. However, in order to finish with a win total in the low 80s, let's say 83, they'd have to finish 66-70, playing .485 ball. Their hot start, whether influenced by luck or not, has provided a cushion for them to coast to an 85 win season (by going .500 the rest of the way). All they have to do is play to their current "expected" pace, of .537 ball, to get to 90 wins. That would be 73-63.

 

I would say they have more than a good chance to finish the season with more than a win total in the low 80s.

 

See last year. :-)

 

Plus, while the Cards & the 'Stros are weaker than last years team, the Pirates, Cubs and Reds are stronger.

[JenksFan5]

I think Pythagorus might have a different view of the Brewers expected wins after outscoring the Cardinals 23-3 in the three game series. Case and point why it is too early to use run differential as the sole measure for a teams expected wins.

 

Maybe, just maybe, the Brewers are actually the most talented team in the NL Central.

[CoolHandLuke]

I think Pythagorus might have a different view of the Brewers expected wins after outscoring the Cardinals 23-3 in the three game series. Case and point why it is too early to use run differential as the sole measure for a teams expected wins.

 

Maybe, just maybe, the Brewers are actually the most talented team in the NL Central.

 

Hey brewers fan, quick question. Why isn't Sheets K'ing anyone?

[UK1679666180]

It's a fair question at this stage, if Mil. plays .500 the rest of the way, they'll be around 85-86 wins. Personally, I think they will play better than .500 from here on out, but obviously not at their current pace,

 

For the Cubs, they'll have to go 74-62 from here on out or play 54% ball (88 wins in a 162 game season) to get to 86 wins.

[Soul]

It's a fair question at this stage, if Mil. plays .500 the rest of the way, they'll be around 85-86 wins. Personally, I think they will play better than .500 from here on out, but obviously not at their current pace,

 

For the Cubs, they'll have to go 74-62 from here on out or play 54% ball (88 wins in a 162 game season) to get to 86 wins.

 

A decent sized winning or losing streak would significantly alter those numbers though. The best thing to say right now is that it's still early. The Crew had a great month. Maybe they'll have more great months, and maybe they won't.

[seanimal]

I think Pythagorus might have a different view of the Brewers expected wins after outscoring the Cardinals 23-3 in the three game series. Case and point why it is too early to use run differential as the sole measure for a teams expected wins.

 

Maybe, just maybe, the Brewers are actually the most talented team in the NL Central.

 

So you're saying that the Brewers trouncing an emotionally devastated team who is clearly not there is more of an indicator as to how the season will turn out than the previous however amount of games? While it may be a little early to assume that April numbers are the be-all end-all of the discussion, I think it's a bit silly to inject the Cardinals series as support to your claim that the Brewers are the best team in the division. I don't think there is a clear best team, and there are a lot of games to be played in the season and between these two ballclubs. Only time will tell who is the most talented team in the Central.

[yfinn6]

I think Pythagorus might have a different view of the Brewers expected wins after outscoring the Cardinals 23-3 in the three game series. Case and point why it is too early to use run differential as the sole measure for a teams expected wins.

 

Maybe, just maybe, the Brewers are actually the most talented team in the NL Central.

 

Hey brewers fan, quick question. Why isn't Sheets K'ing anyone?

 

He learned that not only are strike outs boring, they're fascist. Ground and fly balls are more democratic.

 

Though he still gives up too many of those communist homerun balls.

 

In all seriousness, Ben needs to develop a 3rd pitch IMO. His fastball doesn't quite have the same zip it had in 2004, and he's not locating as well as he was then. He hasn't had a great curveball either since the start of the season, and even on opening day he didn't have great stuff, but the Dodgers were swinging at everything.

[JenksFan5]

Hey brewers fan, quick question. Why isn't Sheets K'ing anyone?

 

Sheets is still struggling with his mechanics right now. He has been leaving his curveball up in the zone and has not had his usual pinpoint control. He said he figured it out midway through the start against St. Louis and finally felt like the old Sheets. Whatever that means. Expect his K rate to go up when the weather starts becoming warmer and more humid. Sheets loves throwing his curveball in high humidity.

 

Hopefully he figured it out a little bit in his last start, but he has not been super sharp as of yet.

 

As far as using the Cardinals series as a gauge of the Brewers, that was not my point. I was just saying how a few games that are blowouts really effects the overall run differential of a team. The Brewers hadn't really blown anybody out before the Cards series, but had been blown out 3 times. It just evened things out to where the numbers should be. The Brewers are a good team and a totally different team from past years. People need to realize it is more than just luck that they are winning games.

 

Once St. Louis can put the whole Hancock thing behind them a little bit, you will realize that they are not that good of a team. It's convenient to use a teammates death for poor play, but it would inspire me personally to try to win even harder in his honor. You can play that card only so long. It's tragic yes, but don't use it as an excuse to say that the Brewers aren't a good team for sweeping the Cards just because they were in mourning. The Cubs had beaten them twice before the death of Hancock. The Cards are simply not playing good baseball right now.

 

I would say that the Cubs are the most serious threat to the Brewers this year, especially if Lilly and Marquis continue to pitch as well as they have and Soriano starts to play like he is capable. It should be an interesting finish. The Astros and Cardinals lineups don't scare me and the Pirates are where the Brewers were a year or two ago. I hope teams keep thinking that "well it's the Brewers so they can't possibly be a good team and keep this up" because they will simply be overlooking a very capable team with no glaring weaknesses.

[JenksFan5]

Yfinn, it is not for lack of velocity on Sheets fastball. It is all about location. I was at the game last night and he through 93-96 the entire night with his 4-seemer.

[98navigator]

Hey brewers fan, quick question. Why isn't Sheets K'ing anyone?

 

Sheets is still struggling with his mechanics right now. He has been leaving his curveball up in the zone and has not had his usual pinpoint control. He said he figured it out midway through the start against St. Louis and finally felt like the old Sheets. Whatever that means. Expect his K rate to go up when the weather starts becoming warmer and more humid. Sheets loves throwing his curveball in high humidity.

 

Hopefully he figured it out a little bit in his last start, but he has not been super sharp as of yet.

 

As far as using the Cardinals series as a gauge of the Brewers, that was not my point. I was just saying how a few games that are blowouts really effects the overall run differential of a team. The Brewers hadn't really blown anybody out before the Cards series, but had been blown out 3 times. It just evened things out to where the numbers should be. The Brewers are a good team and a totally different team from past years. People need to realize it is more than just luck that they are winning games.

 

Once St. Louis can put the whole Hancock thing behind them a little bit, you will realize that they are not that good of a team. It's convenient to use a teammates death for poor play, but it would inspire me personally to try to win even harder in his honor. You can play that card only so long. It's tragic yes, but don't use it as an excuse to say that the Brewers aren't a good team for sweeping the Cards just because they were in mourning. The Cubs had beaten them twice before the death of Hancock. The Cards are simply not playing good baseball right now.

 

I would say that the Cubs are the most serious threat to the Brewers this year, especially if Lilly and Marquis continue to pitch as well as they have and Soriano starts to play like he is capable. It should be an interesting finish. The Astros and Cardinals lineups don't scare me and the Pirates are where the Brewers were a year or two ago. I hope teams keep thinking that "well it's the Brewers so they can't possibly be a good team and keep this up" because they will simply be overlooking a very capable team with no glaring weaknesses.

 

 

No glaring weaknesses?

[seanimal]

Hey brewers fan, quick question. Why isn't Sheets K'ing anyone?

 

Sheets is still struggling with his mechanics right now. He has been leaving his curveball up in the zone and has not had his usual pinpoint control. He said he figured it out midway through the start against St. Louis and finally felt like the old Sheets. Whatever that means. Expect his K rate to go up when the weather starts becoming warmer and more humid. Sheets loves throwing his curveball in high humidity.

 

Hopefully he figured it out a little bit in his last start, but he has not been super sharp as of yet.

 

As far as using the Cardinals series as a gauge of the Brewers, that was not my point. I was just saying how a few games that are blowouts really effects the overall run differential of a team. The Brewers hadn't really blown anybody out before the Cards series, but had been blown out 3 times. It just evened things out to where the numbers should be. The Brewers are a good team and a totally different team from past years. People need to realize it is more than just luck that they are winning games.

 

Once St. Louis can put the whole Hancock thing behind them a little bit, you will realize that they are not that good of a team. It's convenient to use a teammates death for poor play, but it would inspire me personally to try to win even harder in his honor. You can play that card only so long. It's tragic yes, but don't use it as an excuse to say that the Brewers aren't a good team for sweeping the Cards just because they were in mourning. The Cubs had beaten them twice before the death of Hancock. The Cards are simply not playing good baseball right now.

 

I would say that the Cubs are the most serious threat to the Brewers this year, especially if Lilly and Marquis continue to pitch as well as they have and Soriano starts to play like he is capable. It should be an interesting finish. The Astros and Cardinals lineups don't scare me and the Pirates are where the Brewers were a year or two ago. I hope teams keep thinking that "well it's the Brewers so they can't possibly be a good team and keep this up" because they will simply be overlooking a very capable team with no glaring weaknesses.

 

 

No glaring weaknesses?

 

None.

 

He has a point, the Brewers are a capable team. I'm not going to get into a battle of weaknesses, and obviously I am biased, but I think at the end of the day, the Cubs are a better team, on paper, than the Brewers. If this doesn't flesh itself out over the season like many of us are hoping it will, than in the end there is no other conclusion that the Brewers were the better team this year. But they do have weaknesses that seem pretty obvious, and while they've played better than the Cubs thus far, they haven't played that much better to conclude that they're the 'team to beat' in the central, mostly because I don't believe that there is a team to beat in the central. It's up for grabs.

[Outshined_One]

The Brewers are most certainly an intriguing team. But, they're starting to develop into one of those teams which are yearly chic sleeper picks that end up not living up to expectations. That's not to say that the history of how people predict teams' success is a terrific indicator of future performance, but I think it is something that needs to be tempered for the time being.

 

Hardy, Jenkins, Fielder, and Hall all have BABIPs that would be difficult to continue to sustain over the course of the season. Injuries and depth problems have hurt the Brewers in the past (although, I think Gallardo's got the goods to be a quality starter). I think they're a better team than they've been in the past, but I'm still skeptical about whether they'll be able to win the division.

 

They're off to a good start, but they haven't built an insurmountable lead yet. There's still plenty of baseball left to go.

[seanimal]

The Brewers are most certainly an intriguing team. But, they're starting to develop into one of those teams which are yearly chic sleeper picks that end up not living up to expectations. That's not to say that the history of how people predict teams' success is a terrific indicator of future performance, but I think it is something that needs to be tempered for the time being.

 

Hardy, Jenkins, Fielder, and Hall all have BABIPs that would be difficult to continue to sustain over the course of the season. Injuries and depth problems have hurt the Brewers in the past (although, I think Gallardo's got the goods to be a quality starter). I think they're a better team than they've been in the past, but I'm still skeptical about whether they'll be able to win the division.

 

They're off to a good start, but they haven't built an insurmountable lead yet. There's still plenty of baseball left to go.

 

=D>

[Banedon]

They have the best record in baseball. Crazy.

 

Meanwhile, the Cubs are a half game out of 2nd place.

[UK1679666180]

It's a fair question at this stage, if Mil. plays .500 the rest of the way, they'll be around 85-86 wins. Personally, I think they will play better than .500 from here on out, but obviously not at their current pace,

 

For the Cubs, they'll have to go 74-62 from here on out or play 54% ball (88 wins in a 162 game season) to get to 86 wins.

 

A decent sized winning or losing streak would significantly alter those numbers though. The best thing to say right now is that it's still early. The Crew had a great month. Maybe they'll have more great months, and maybe they won't.

 

They don't have to have any great months from here on out, they could play .500 from here on out and equal the win total of what I expected to win or come close to winning this division.

 

They've set themselves up nicely in a bland division, unlike Cincy of last year, they have the talent to con't to win.