Are the Brewers going to run away with the Central

[UMFan83]

Before the season, despite having a pessimistic outlook on the Cubs season, I thought they had a decent shot to be in the mix at the end of the season if a few things broke their way. All the other teams in the division looked to be mediocre at best. However, the one thing that scared me was the Brewers. They too appeared to be a mediocre bunch, but they had one thing that the rest of the division didn't have, untapped potential.

 

Fastforward to May 1, and the Brewers are 16-9 and 3.5 games ahead in the division (5.5 ahead of the last place Cubs). They lead the division in runs scored (albeit well behind the pace of several NL teams in other divisions), and their runs allowed are around the middle of the pack in the league. Young players like JJ Hardy and Prince Fielder are starting to realize their potential and put up solid numbers. This team looks like they are here to stay.

 

Of course they did something like this last year, 14-11 after April, but you never really got the feeling that this team was better last year. The Cardinals and Astros both looked up for the challenge of a division race. This year they do not. If the division continues to spin its wheels, we might see the Brewers up by double digits by the All Star Break. If any team in this division has the potential to run away its the Brewers. And if that happens, this is just another quiet summer on the North side.

[RynoRules]

No

[Exile on Waveland]

To this point, the Brewers have outscored opponents by three runs (117-114), while the Cubs have outscored opponents by 21 (112-91). The Cubs are behind only the Mets, Red Sox and Blue Jays in that category. No, it hasn't shown up in the win-loss standings yet, but over the course of the season it likely will.

[98navigator]

No

[hardcorecubfan]

I believe we brought this up two years ago and many people thought that the Brewers would be ready for some type of run this year, they have shown steady improvement, unlike us. The definetly are making a show of it.

[Mephistopheles]

No.

[Brian]

It's possible, but I see a season similar to the 06 Reds in the Brewers. A real good start but they'll come back towards .500 down the stretch. The question remains if there will be any teams that can take advantage and be there to have a better record, that remains to be seen.

[Soriano12]

On the topic of the Brew Crew, I am the only one that things Ned Yost looks like George W. Bush a bit?

[jersey cubs fan]

It's possible, but I see a season similar to the 06 Reds in the Brewers. A real good start but they'll come back towards .500 down the stretch. The question remains if there will be any teams that can take advantage and be there to have a better record, that remains to be seen.

 

 

Well, they are on pace for about 104 wins, so I'd bet a lot of money they'll come back towards .500. Although they probably won't come back to .500. The Brewers definitely have a chance to put a crimp in any plan to win the division with 85 wins. They only have to win 54% of their remaining games to win 90. If they play 1-game over .500 the rest of the way they will end up with 85 wins.

[kroth1342]

To this point, the Brewers have outscored opponents by three runs (117-114), while the Cubs have outscored opponents by 21 (112-91). The Cubs are behind only the Mets, Red Sox and Blue Jays in that category. No, it hasn't shown up in the win-loss standings yet, but over the course of the season it likely will.

 

We all hope it does - for evidence to the contrary, see: Cleveland Indians, 2006.

[RegulusBlue]

To this point, the Brewers have outscored opponents by three runs (117-114), while the Cubs have outscored opponents by 21 (112-91). The Cubs are behind only the Mets, Red Sox and Blue Jays in that category. No, it hasn't shown up in the win-loss standings yet, but over the course of the season it likely will.

 

We all hope it does - for evidence to the contrary, see: Cleveland Indians, 2006.

 

Evidence to the contrary here is simply highlighting an extreme case that is an outlier to the general argument.

 

They will falter eventually unless they actually begin to score more often. Injuries will also begin to affect them soon.

[Exile on Waveland]

To this point, the Brewers have outscored opponents by three runs (117-114), while the Cubs have outscored opponents by 21 (112-91). The Cubs are behind only the Mets, Red Sox and Blue Jays in that category. No, it hasn't shown up in the win-loss standings yet, but over the course of the season it likely will.

 

We all hope it does - for evidence to the contrary, see: Cleveland Indians, 2006.

 

Oh, it's no guarantee, but it is a good sign for Cubs fans.

[rawaction]

Won't run away with the division, but I think they will hang around all year. They are probably a little weak with the bats and a little weak in the pen, though.

 

They are getting a 1.030 out of LF (Mench, Jenkins). .365 OBP out of RF, despite the fact that Corey Hart who has 52 of the 92 RF ABs has a .333 OBP. They are getting crap at 3B, but do have a big-time prospect in the wings.

 

Pitching wise, I have a hard time believing Claudio Vargas with the career 6.46 K/9, will keep up his current rate of striking out almost 12 per 9. Then his 1.50 WHIP will cause his 3.68 ERA to skyrocket. Capuano and Suppan are also pitching like All-Stars right now. Their bullpen has been dominant as of late also, including Derrick Turnbow who is pitching like the best reliever in baseball right now.

[abuck1220]

i don't understand why everyone discounts the brewers by saying "well, they're the brewers" as if the cubs are somehow entitled to win games and the brewers aren't.

[JenksFan5]

I think that the Brewers are a better team than people give them credit for. Watching them day in and day out, they are winning without even playing great baseball right now. If you look at their run differential to this point, it really doesn't reflect in their record of 16-9, but they got blown out a couple of times that really skews the numbers. (10-1 vs. the Astros and 9-3 vs. the Cubs, and 10-2 vs. St. Louis) I think the sample size is a bit too small to use run differential at this point of the year when a couple of games can really effect the overall picture.

 

The thing that makes the Brewers solid is their depth and their ability to get on base and hit for decent power up and down the lineup. There is not one or two guys that the team relies on, but usually there are different guys stepping up on different nights. Starting pitching is solid and the 8th and the 9th innings are almost automatic. Middle relief is the teams only weakness along with the 3B position, but Ryan Braun should fill that hole nicely (.304 7 HR, 15 RBI, 1.095 OPS at AAA). Sheets has been mediocre thus far and no one in the lineup has been absolutely raking. They have been getting enough clutch hits and pitching well enough to win, but have not been playing flawless baseball as of yet.

 

I don't think that they will run away with the division, but they have definitely established themselves as the team to beat in the NL Central and I don't think 90 wins for them is out of the question.

[Yestheydo]

It's possible, but I see a season similar to the 06 Reds in the Brewers. A real good start but they'll come back towards .500 down the stretch. The question remains if there will be any teams that can take advantage and be there to have a better record, that remains to be seen.

 

I was gonna say the exact same thing. The Reds had such a great April last year they stayed in contention playing mediocre ball the rest of the way.

[Soul]

I still want to wait a bit to see if they'll fall back to earth. They look real good right now though. Seems like that first series when we beat them 2/3 was the most anyone's been able to get under their skin all month.

[rawaction]

It's possible, but I see a season similar to the 06 Reds in the Brewers. A real good start but they'll come back towards .500 down the stretch. The question remains if there will be any teams that can take advantage and be there to have a better record, that remains to be seen.

 

I was gonna say the exact same thing. The Reds had such a great April last year they stayed in contention playing mediocre ball the rest of the way.

 

The Reds were also a less talented team getting awfully flukey pitching last April.

[Shavo]

Well said JenksFan.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

It's far too early to tell either way. The Cubs may not be as bad as they've looked and the Brewers may not be as good. Of course, the Brewers could be better than they've played, and the Cubs could play worse.

 

We just don't know at this point.

[TruffleShuffle]

no, but they will win the division

[RynoRules]

i don't understand why everyone discounts the brewers by saying "well, they're the brewers" as if the cubs are somehow entitled to win games and the brewers aren't.

 

Their lineup to date is better than the Cubs. I just don't think they are running away with the div., which I loosely define as being 10 games up on Sept. 1. They very well could win it, however.

[gflore34]

It's possible, but I see a season similar to the 06 Reds in the Brewers. A real good start but they'll come back towards .500 down the stretch. The question remains if there will be any teams that can take advantage and be there to have a better record, that remains to be seen.

 

I was gonna say the exact same thing. The Reds had such a great April last year they stayed in contention playing mediocre ball the rest of the way.

 

The Reds were also a less talented team getting awfully flukey pitching last April.

 

True but, I find it hard to believe that a rotation made up of the likes of Claudio Vargas and Dave Bush is going to allow them to play .600 ball. Add to this Ben Sheets with a groin injury(as we know, groin injuries have a way staying around all season) and the prospect of them running away with the Central doesn't appear good.

[RynoRules]

Stark is on the bandwagon and says that April does in fact matter (historically speaking):

 

April matters.

 

It might not matter as much in the wild-card age as it used to matter. So teams such as the Yankees, Cardinals, Cubs and Astros may not have buried themselves yet. But it does matter. And because it does, the odds that those teams are going to right the ship and play in October are longer than they think.

 

We looked at every full season since 1982. Here's what we found:

 

• Of the 144 teams that made it to the postseason in that span, only eight (or 5.6 percent) came out of April more than three games under .500. Clubs that need to worry most about that history lesson: the Yankees (9-14), Astros (10-14), Cardinals (10-14), Cubs (10-14) and Rangers (10-15).

 

• Just six of those 144 playoff teams (or 4.2 percent) found themselves more than 4½ games out of a playoff spot after April. Those same five clubs ought to get nervous about that trend; the Yankees are 6½ games out, while the Cubs, Cardinals and Astros are all 5½ games out.

 

• And you wouldn't think the standings would mean much this time of year. But more than half of the 120 teams that found themselves in first place after April (66 of 120) wound up finishing first. And 98 of the 120 (81.7 percent) of the teams that finished the season in first place either led their division or were within 2½ games of the lead at the end of April.

 

 

Weirdest division of the month: As loyal reader Justin Germany points out, until Monday the Cubs were the only team in the NL Central to outscore its opponents in April. And they were tied for last place.

 

Link

[gflore34]

i don't understand why everyone discounts the brewers by saying "well, they're the brewers" as if the cubs are somehow entitled to win games and the brewers aren't.

 

Their lineup to date is better than the Cubs. I just don't think they are running away with the div., which I loosely define as being 10 games up on Sept. 1. They very well could win it, however.

 

Will it continue to be so once Soriano starts to hit? Having gotten nothing from Soriano, the Brewers have still only scored 5 more runs than the Cubs - 117-112.