brewfandave

Gomez is a defensive upgrade from Cain, and who knows how good Cain really is at the plate? Gomez will probably do some soft platooning with Dickerson, who at least has some on-base skills. Betancourt is the real mitigating factor to the value of the trade. Almost any shortstop would be better there. Heck, a full season of Craig Counsell at short would probably provide more value. Despite that, this is a rotation that will miss a lot of bats, minimizing the crappiness of the Brewers' defense. We're not talking about Dave Bush, Doug Davis, and Jeff Suppan here. Wow, it feels really good thinking that those were the Brewers' 3-4-5 pitchers starting out last year.

They absolutely will put butts in the seats, but there's a lot more to market (and budget) than attendance. Milwaukee's media market is actually smaller than that of their AAA affiliate. Seriously, Nashville is a bigger market than Milwaukee. Anyway, pushing three million attendees lets them top out at about $90 million in player spending. That's a far cry from the $130-150 million the Cubs or Astros can throw around, or even the $100 million plus the Cardinals can spend. Paying the market rate for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols is flat-out impossible for the Brewers. How much is the Cubs' WGN contract? Their Comcast Sports contract? Take one of those, and cut it in half. That's maybe what the Brewers get from TV.

The Brewers' optimal plan really is to go for cycles: five years of stocking and losing, three years of developing (and probably more losing) with a two-three year window of being able to contend. Ben Sheets' paper-thin tendons blew the early part of the contending cycle, but Melvin just extended the contending cycle while greatly prolonging the subsequent restocking cycle. As a Brewer fan, I am willing to deal with an extended period of development for the chance to go for it all. As was previously mentioned, Milwaukee is a small market, and getting to the playoffs is a victory in itself. With that rotation, and that offense, that's probably enough to earn a seat at the craps table called the playoffs. The Brewers just can't compete with two huge markets (Chicago and Houston), and one bigger mid-market (St. Louis) regularly, so sometimes you have to go all in. Greinke-Yo-Marcum-Wolf-whoever is a pretty darn good rotation, and they've given up no offense from last season. They're going to get a lot of first and second round draft picks in the next two-three years (Fielder, Marcum, Greinke, possibly Weeks). Then the cycle starts again.

Ever had major surgery? We're not talking about Lasik, here. Anyway, sucks to hear. It's always sad to hear about injury, especially to someone as talented as Harden. By the way, I'm guessing that the Brewers are 3-8 wins worse than last year (optimistic gets a nearly-full season from Gallardo, an improvement from Manny Parra, and continued improvement/return to form from the not-yet-in-their-prime hitters like Braun, Fielder, Hardy, and Hart). I'd put the Cubs in the high 80s-low 90s in wins right now, depending on injury and how their aging stars hold up their form. It should be a pretty exciting year, what with the possibility of the Reds coming on, and those blasted Cardinals inevitably getting All-Star caliber performances out of a bunch of guys who would get cut from a beer league softball team.

The best part is the exchange where the caller, after hearing Ricciardi blast Dunn for striking out, says, "but he hits a ton of home runs!"

If I were not a Brewers fan, this is what I would cheer for, too. I'm not quite cheering for the Brewers to lose so Yost can get the axe, but I'm close.

Well, this can only be good for the Brewers. Gagne is flat-out terrible.

I see some Brewer rumors. Here's what I've heard (mostly from stories cribbed from the Milwaukee paper and radio talks with Melvin or others): Jim Bowden has "repeatedly" asked after Rickie Weeks for Chad Cordero. Melvin is smart not to give him up, I think. Weeks seems primed for a big year, and Cordero is, well, he's great, but he still only pitches 70 innings a year. Bowden has pulled off a couple of real steals lately, and I think he's now asking for the moon. Rolen for Capuano - Braun would move to left field, and Rolen would be around for, what, three years? LaPorta most likely won't be ready in 2008, and only maybe in 2009. I dunno - it'll probably take Capuano + to not get laughed out of the room, let alone make the deal. Ben Sheets - there was a crazy rumor about Sheets-Hall-prospect to the Braves for Soriano-Francoeur-K Johnson. Apparently Atlanta is no longer so high on Francoeur, but I'd take that deal in a heartbeat. Also, the Dodgers have expressed interest in Sheets as well. I like that idea - right now, the Dodgers are just stupid enough to deal some of their very-high-ceiling young talent to appease the old losers on that club, and I'd be ecstatic if the Brewers were the team (trust me, someone will) to take advantage.

He puts up a pretty decent OBP. That's all I care about - Estrada was just plain awful. Awful -> slightly less awful. He'll likely hit # 2 (knowing Yost), and with an OBP north of .340, that'll mean a lot of runs from Braun-Fielder-Hart, who are, if my numbers are right, all phenomenal hitters. Seriously, last season Craig Counsell and JJ Hardy post-June spent a lot of time at # 2.

Re: Bill Hall: I don't know what it would take to get him. I read a little rumor blurb on SI saying teams were interested in him for SS, and that got me thinking. In return, the big needs are relief pitchers, possibly a solid starter, a catcher, and what Doug Melvin called "professional hitters" (OBP guys, specifically - http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071003&content_id=2247917&vkey=news_mil&fext=.jsp&c_id=mil). I'd lean toward relievers. I think the Brewers are going to push to trade for relievers. I would love to see some OBP-heavy guys, though, especially in front of Braun, Fielder, Hart - that could be a lot of damage. Re: Corey Hart - I also believe that they should play Sunglasses at Night whenever he bats, and I have said so many times.

Good question. I'm guessing it goes up, but not by more than about five million. Jenkins is gone ($9 mil), I'll bet they try to get rid of Mench ($3.4), maybe Bush (arby eligible), Vargas (about $3 mil), possibly Bill Hall ($4-6 mil). The only guys in arbitration getting anything will be Weeks, Hardy and Capuano, I think, but I don't think any will get a lot this year. It's all kind of a crapshoot, though, because the Brewers have a few marginal guys that, packaged together could get something good, but otherwise are kinda useless, and some of them are arby-eligible. I think. I'm not the most knowledgeable about this, and I certainly don't have any information - this is just my gut feeling. Melvin has said other GMs have already asked about all his starting pitching, and Bill Hall seems like he's in exactly the spot where Doug Melvin could really throw him into a good trade. I'm probably wrong, though - I usually am in speculating.

I think all Brewer fans are sort of hedging their bets with Sheets, expecting him for about 20-25 starts, but a full season of Gallardo and Villanueva should be exciting. Those kids are really good. Hardy, yeah, Hardy might regress. There's not much info on him due to the injury history, but I think his overall numbers will be about what they were this year, but not a great deal lower. I think Braun will drop a bit in average, but go up a bit in OBP. His defense will improve slightly, but probably not enough to warrant being in the infield. Fielder will, likewise, just about maintain his numbers - everybody predicted he'd be here eventually, just not so soon. One thing that worries me is when Jason Lane tackled him at the end of the season - high ankle sprains can be trouble. Weeks had something ridiculous like a .475 OBP in the second half, and was hitting well. He'd been bothered by a mid-2006 wrist injury, the effects of which usually persist for just about a year, which coincides with his hot later months. Corey Hart is the man. He really is. He's clutch (if you believe in clutch), has great power, decent eye, great speed - the Brewers organization is very high on him. While Fielder Weeks and co. were catching eyes and gaining followers, Hart quietly won team and league MVP awards in the minors, and his upward progress has been steady and, well, upward. Corey Koskie's contract is up this year, and I think he retires. I think Bill Hall gets dealt, as well as two or three of: Claudio Vargas, Dave Bush, Chris Capuano and Manny Parra, probably for some relief pitching, and I think the Brewers go for an outfielder in FA.

My thoughts are that Fielder will be at about the same, but Braun's numbers will be better (absolutely, not necessarily proportionally) over a full season. Hardy has really shown his level of play (about a .780 OPS overall), while Weeks was only starting to flash real potential in the later months of the season. Corey Hart, I think will also continue to improve. I'm just really, really impressed with the way he goes about hitting, baserunning, playing defense... Pitching is key for the Brewers - if they can get a good reliever or two and get a full season out of Gallardo, Villanueva and Sheets, well, I think they're a near-lock for NL Central champs.

That's cause they're throwing the game - Tony LaRussa told me himself ;)

Don't paint us all like that. I've been frustrated following the Cubs, thinking some guys are over-performing, and yes, even lucky lately, but the guy you mention is just spilling sour grapes right now. Most of it is resentment and frustration because if a couple of players (Capuano, Hall, any reliever not named Cordero) had even played like AAA-caliber players, we could have had this division sewn up. Most of us like most of you just fine. You're good people, with the minor flaw of being Cub fans (joke, joke). (One note of just being crotchety and argumentative, Soriano, Ramirez and Lee are all performing above career average in OPS, and Ramirez and Soriano are a stone's throw from career highs)

Letting Rich Hill pitch for the Astros... :oops: http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/index.jsp?c_id=chc (Check the fourth thumbnail)

Now, of course, it looks terribly one-sided, but it's easy to forget that prior to 2005, Derrek Lee was closer to Lyle Overbay than Albert Pujols.

I wouldn't worry about the Reds - they won't stay good. Rather, the way the Cubs have been playing vs. the way the Brewers have been playing, your guys are probably a shoo-in for a sweep. Likewise, the suckitude of the Cardinals won't last past today. Funny how things turn around, isn't it?

One thing - Braun has mashed at every level. He's playing over his head, yes, but not like Hardy was. The question on Braun has always been his defense, not his ability at the plate. He may cool off, but he won't plummet.

Ryan Braun and Corey Hart generate a lot of power from the bottom of their frames, and Ryan Braun has ridiculous bat speed. JJ Hardy... I dunno - people tried to sneak a lot of high inside fastballs past him early, and he punished them for it. Now they're throwing a lot down and away, and his average and power have plummeted because he's a dead-pull hitter.

Good call! Yeah, that's me, hanging my head. Those comments were out of line. I should be better about keeping this rivalry civil. My apologies - hope you guys enjoy the next game. Except what I said about Mench - I'm not taking that back. He still sucks, double or no.

Not likely. Mench couldn't go deep off Glendon Rusch with a corked bat. Here's what Mench's line will be at the end of the night: 0-4, 1K, pop out to 2B, GIDP, HBP, 1 RBI, the only RBI coming when, in a bases-loaded situation, he swings at a meatball over the plate in a desperate attempt to duplicate his earlier double play and cement his place in rally-killer legend, but his massive head gets in the way and he takes one off the helmet, gets awarded first base and drives in his first run since, while it may not quite reach the time preceding helmets, long pants and even the dinosaurs, only seems that way. Book it. So, yeah, you guys might be in trouble with Kevin Mench at the plate. I'll be at the game. LF bleachers.

First things first... are you peeing your pants if the Brewers make the playoffs? Mmmm... no.

Is the assumption that the Brewers will only play .500 ball from now until the end of September based on fact or is it just wishful thinking?

That's the best point of this thread right there. Obviously, if the Cubs see Lee, Ramirez or Soriano go down, they're kind of screwed because those guys are just offensive monsters (and Lee is a one-of-a-kind defender). Same with the Brewers and Fielder. Here's where the Brewers have an advantage - he's their only really irreplaceable position player. Right now they have five average-to-solid players and one unproven kid (Gwynn) in the outfield. Should they lose any infielder besides Fielder, they can easily shift Hall or call up Braun. Losing multiple players in the infield is a killer, but hey, not many teams are going to survive losing two quality infielders. Note that I say "quality" there - if Graffanino or Counsell goes down, the Brewers will actually improve a great deal. Obviously losing a SP will kill you, but the Brewers are about as capable as anybody at filling that need, what with Carlos Villanueva available and Yo Gallardo in AAA. As far as Bush goes, yes, his early season woes seem to be an aberration, and the numbers are bearing that out. Last I heard (don't quote me on this), his BABIP was in the area of .350-.360, which I hear is high, and I've heard statheads say that he has an abnormally extreme strand rate that is really killing him, too. I don't really know what that means, though. When it comes down to it, Bush has shown over a couple of seasons that he has the stuff to be a 4-4.5 ERA guy, and I expect him to get closer to those numbers as the season goes along. Who knows? He may get better - he's still young.