Are we actually the favorite in the NL Central right now?

[CubinNY]

It's too early to tell.

[Jazz]

There are so many ifs right now. I think we won't know until well into the season actually, maybe by june at the earliest.

 

I think what will happen is that the NL Central will beat up on itself many times, and there will be many division lead changes, even by the all star break. Meanwhile the other divisions will make the NL Central its beeyotch, and our division winner will have an 80-90 win total.

[erik316wttn]

If things go right (Prior healthy, Hill continues to pitch well, overall health, and reasonably good seasons from Soriano, Lee, ARam, Barrett, and Murton), I think the Cubs have a chance to run away with the Central. That being said, I do think that the starting pitching is deep enough, the bullpen and bench are solid, and the offense is good enough that the Cubs ought to be considered favorites and they should be in contention all year.

 

That's IF things go right.

 

This is the Cubs, however. Things rarely go right.

[oldstyle81]

Even though the Cardinals won the division last year with 83 wins, it's safe to assume that 90 wins will be required to be in contention for the Central crown. Unless one assumes that Hill, Lilly, and Marquis will have career years, the Cubs can't be expected to contend for the crown. With the current roster, the offense's main upgrades will be a healthy Lee at first, and Soriano instead of Pierre in center. Izturis and DeRosa are marginal upgrades in production at SS and 2B. That's it.

 

The Cubs projected performance last year put them at a 70-92 record. Expecting a 20 win improvement out of this offseason's moves is way too much.

 

The cubs projected performance was before or after the injuries? i find it hard to believe that all these "projections" only had the cubs winning 4 more games with a healthy Derrek Lee and rotation

 

20 win improvement is possibly mainly because the cubs dont have a [expletive] with the label manager saying OBP isint important and clogs the basepaths.

[nilodnayr]

I think people are discounting the Astros a little too much. They added a bat in Carlos Lee and they will be better off with Burke in CF than Taveras.

 

While they may not have Clemens, they didn't have him until late June last year. They replaced Pettitte with Jennings, which is a step down.

 

I think there's a logjam atop the Central. The Cubs, Cards, Brewers, and Astros all look about even. The question marks (health, surprise performances, midseason acquisitions) of each team will likely determine the race this year.

 

I'm discounting the Astros because their rotation is going to suck hardcore. Roy will be excellent as usual, but subtracting Pettite and Clemens for Jennings and Williams is a huge downgrade. Pitching definitely carried them last year (4th in runs allowed). Jennings, Williams, Wandy, and Astacio is an ugly ugly rotation (although I'm very down on Jennings and Williams).

 

Their offense should be much improved, but they were pathetic last year (only 19 more runs than the cubs). They could get to about average offensively, but I don't think it will offset the increase runs allowed.

[rocket]

Do we want to be favored? No. Then our season will end up like 2004. If we aren't, we can maybe pull off 2003.

 

not being favored in 2005 or 2006 didn't do any good either

[NorthsideAvenger]

First: I don't like the "Won a World Series, thus should be an automatic favorites" theory. Sometimes it fits, most times, it don't. In the Cards case, it is not true. The Cards were a MEDIOCRE team that got hot at the right time. And the Cards haven't really improved themselves this off-season. Marquis for Wells, Bellard for Kennedy, losing Suppan keeping Mulder. Edmonds and Rolen are abit older. In other words, the Cards have made lateral moves AT BEST. And the Cards are going to need big contributions from Wainwright/Reyes and Duncan if they want to stay in the hunt.

 

Second: I don't think there is a CLEAR cut favorite for the NL Central crown, simply because no team in the division have distinguish themselves as being better then the rest of the division. Each team has something that is great, and something that is bad. Right now, it's a two division, division, so to speak. In one division you have Cubs/Cards/Brewer with the Astros/Reds/Pirates at the other end. Now will this flip flopped through the yr, sure, but right now, I think on paper the Cubs are top 3 in the division---low expectations, great fun.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

With the Cubs' and Cardinals' respective luck over the last four years, along with the fact that STL has the best player in the game and are the defending champs, it'd probably be foolish to assume we are the favorites.

 

We're certainly expected to compete, but I'd still keep STL at the favorites being that they're the 3-time division champs.

When did they trade for Arod?!?

[shnsajax]

Being that he is 35, Pujlos is due for a long term injury ;-)

[Andy]

With the Cubs' and Cardinals' respective luck over the last four years, along with the fact that STL has the best player in the game and are the defending champs, it'd probably be foolish to assume we are the favorites.

 

We're certainly expected to compete, but I'd still keep STL at the favorites being that they're the 3-time division champs.

When did they trade for Arod?!?

Heh, point taken. Best player in the NL, then.

[SouthSideRyan]

Thinking about this really makes you realize how terrible the NL Central is.

[Backtobanks]

Thinking about this really makes you realize how terrible the NL Central is.

 

and yet the WS Champs are in the NL Central.

[JDE]

With the Cubs' and Cardinals' respective luck over the last four years, along with the fact that STL has the best player in the game and are the defending champs, it'd probably be foolish to assume we are the favorites.

 

We're certainly expected to compete, but I'd still keep STL at the favorites being that they're the 3-time division champs.

When did they trade for Arod?!?

Heh, point taken. Best player in the NL, then.

 

No, you were right the first time. Pujols is the best player in the game. Ok, carry on.

[erik316wttn]

Thinking about this really makes you realize how terrible the NL Central is.

 

and yet the WS Champs are in the NL Central.

 

And the NL Pennant winner has come from the NL Central each of the last three (should have been four, damn A-Gonz) seasons.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

With the Cubs' and Cardinals' respective luck over the last four years, along with the fact that STL has the best player in the game and are the defending champs, it'd probably be foolish to assume we are the favorites.

 

We're certainly expected to compete, but I'd still keep STL at the favorites being that they're the 3-time division champs.

When did they trade for Arod?!?

 

I'd rather have Pujols over ARod.

[Garwilly]

With the Cubs' and Cardinals' respective luck over the last four years, along with the fact that STL has the best player in the game and are the defending champs, it'd probably be foolish to assume we are the favorites.

 

We're certainly expected to compete, but I'd still keep STL at the favorites being that they're the 3-time division champs.

When did they trade for Arod?!?

 

I'd rather have Pujols over ARod.

 

For one season? Because that is all "Best player" means. I too would rather have Pujols on my teams from this point forward, but Arod is the best.

[CubsInNC]

With the Cubs' and Cardinals' respective luck over the last four years, along with the fact that STL has the best player in the game and are the defending champs, it'd probably be foolish to assume we are the favorites.

 

We're certainly expected to compete, but I'd still keep STL at the favorites being that they're the 3-time division champs.

When did they trade for Arod?!?

 

I'd rather have Pujols over ARod.

 

I'd rather have Pujols at 1B over A-Rod at 3rd. But I'd take A-Rod at SS over Pujols at 1B. And I'd take Pujols at DH over all of them.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Thinking about this really makes you realize how terrible the NL Central is.

 

and yet the WS Champs are in the NL Central.

 

Only because the NL Central used the ole "Jedi mindtrick" into fooling everybody into thinking the NLC was terrible, when in actuality....no wait...what am I talking about,the NL Central is terrible, and a WS title doesn't that fact. Detroit just proved to be incompetent when the game was on the line.

[wastra]

I'm still not convinced that we have a playoff caliber pitching staff. We'll need a healthy and effective prior and miller for that, imo.

[cheapseats]

With the Cubs' and Cardinals' respective luck over the last four years, along with the fact that STL has the best player in the game and are the defending champs, it'd probably be foolish to assume we are the favorites.

 

We're certainly expected to compete, but I'd still keep STL at the favorites being that they're the 3-time division champs.

When did they trade for Arod?!?

 

I'd rather have Pujols over ARod.

 

I'd rather have Pujols at 1B over A-Rod at 3rd. But I'd take A-Rod at SS over Pujols at 1B. And I'd take Pujols at DH over all of them.

 

Huh? I'm not sure what you mean.

[CubsInNC]

With the Cubs' and Cardinals' respective luck over the last four years, along with the fact that STL has the best player in the game and are the defending champs, it'd probably be foolish to assume we are the favorites.

 

We're certainly expected to compete, but I'd still keep STL at the favorites being that they're the 3-time division champs.

When did they trade for Arod?!?

 

I'd rather have Pujols over ARod.

 

I'd rather have Pujols at 1B over A-Rod at 3rd. But I'd take A-Rod at SS over Pujols at 1B. And I'd take Pujols at DH over all of them.

 

Huh? I'm not sure what you mean.

 

Pujols at 1B has his detractions (defense and whatnot) plus the added chances for injury and fatigue. Put him at DH where he'd remain fresher longer, and face less possibility for injury and he's the best player in baseball by far.

[Drew Doughty]

Pujols is a good defensive 1B though. I don't personally think he's worthy of a GG, though.

 

1B typically doesn't wear down players. Putting him at DH would undoubtedly decrease his value.

[cheapseats]

With the Cubs' and Cardinals' respective luck over the last four years, along with the fact that STL has the best player in the game and are the defending champs, it'd probably be foolish to assume we are the favorites.

 

We're certainly expected to compete, but I'd still keep STL at the favorites being that they're the 3-time division champs.

When did they trade for Arod?!?

 

I'd rather have Pujols over ARod.

 

I'd rather have Pujols at 1B over A-Rod at 3rd. But I'd take A-Rod at SS over Pujols at 1B. And I'd take Pujols at DH over all of them.

 

Huh? I'm not sure what you mean.

 

Pujols at 1B has his detractions (defense and whatnot) plus the added chances for injury and fatigue. Put him at DH where he'd remain fresher longer, and face less possibility for injury and he's the best player in baseball by far.

 

Pujols is one of the best defensive 1B in baseball.

 

Dewan's Fielding Bible had him ranked behind only Teixeira and Mientkiewicz in 2003-2005.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

First base and Catcher are the two hardest positions to accurately assess defensively. Dewan's methodology for 1B leaves a lot to be desired. That's not to say that he's wrong about Pujols, but just to throw it out there.

[cheapseats]

First base and Catcher are the two hardest positions to accurately assess defensively. Dewan's methodology for 1B leaves a lot to be desired. That's not to say that he's wrong about Pujols, but just to throw it out there.

 

I don't know if it leaves a lot to be desired. The only thing he really needs to account for in the future is a measure of wild throws prevented, balls dug out of the dirt, etc.

 

At any rate, I've never seen an advanced metric that had Pujols as a below-average defender, so Pujols' defense is an asset, not a detriment. It would be a waste to keep him off the field.

 

I definitely agree that quantifying a catcher's defense is very tough. Dewan didn't even attempt it in his book.