Are we actually the favorite in the NL Central right now?

[XZero771679666304]

That 2004 team was special, a 100-105 win team if Prior and Wood were healthy.

 

And Sosa, Ramirez, Borowski and Grudz.

 

Didn't Walker also miss some time?

 

2004 was a disaster.

 

I'll happily take 2004 again (in terms of standings) sans its last 2 weeks (those were the real disaster) over anything we've had since, and probably 2007, too.

 

2004 was a disaster in terms of what could (or should have) been.

 

With even half the injuries, they could have won 100 games. 110+ If Wood and Prior has made even 30 starts apiece.

[Rob]

While I agree with you for the most part, I think it's fair to point out that both Lee and Ramirez were lesser offensive players pre-2004. I think that most people would have expected a .270/.360/.880 line from Lee in 2004, and about a .270/.330/.800 line from Ramirez.

 

Either of those lines would be sorely disappointing in 2007. So counting expectations as equal pre-2004 and now for those players would be inaccurate, IMO. I expected Patterson to be really good in 2004, and I expected AGon to at least hit 20 homers, making him better than Izturis. I expected Walker to be better than I expect DeRosa to be.

 

Also, Sosa was in pretty clear decline. I don't expect his 2003 numbers to be as good as Soriano's 2007, numbers, and I sure didn't expect his 2004 numbers to be either. Barrett was also an unknown quantity. I didn't expect much from him in 2004, except to be better than Miller/Bako, which is saying very little. I didn't expect Alou to produce like he did on 2004, either. Here's my relative expectation chart:

 

2007 2004

C Barrett >>> Barrett

1B Lee >> Lee

2B DeRosa << Walker

SS Izturis < Gonzo

3B Ramirez >> Ramirez

RF Soriano > Sosa

CF Jones << Patterson

LF Murton < Alou

 

 

And the lack of expected production in 2004 had a lot to do with injury as well.

 

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree.

 

I was timid about Barrett in 2004 as well, but now I'm worried about the fact he's a catcher on the wrong side of 30. His production is just about about as likely to drop off a cliff as it is to stay at his current established level.

 

I suppose I do expect more from Ramirez now, but I can't fathom how people expect a huge line from DLee this coming season. Yes, 2005 was amazing, but he's coming off a serious injury and even if he weren't, we would still most likely be dealing with regression to the mean. I can't really expect more out of him now than I did back in 2004.

 

Though I suppose you are right about Gonzalez being better than Izturis.

 

As for Sosa versus Soriano...

 

Interestingly enough, they're both coming off seasons with a .911 OPS. The difference is that the two seasons prior to that, Sosa had put up OPS marks of 1.174 and .993... whereas Soriano had put up .808 and .821. With both players now on the wrong side of 30, I'd be hard pressed to expect more from Soriano than I did of Sosa.

[BigbadB]

2004

 

Nomar Garciaparra >>>>Ramon Martinez>> Alex Gonzalez

 

Alex Gonzalez played SS less than Ramon and Nomar

[NoDak]

Defense at first base is over rated. It is the easiest position to play on the baseball diamond. You don't have to take more than 3 or 4 steps or throw the ball most of the time.

 

I really don't care what position Pujols plays, he is the best player in baseball.

 

It is the easiest position to play, but a great defender can certainly make a difference there. I think there is less variance in first baseman defensively in that below average to average is not as large of a difference at first base than other positions. When you start to get towards good to great though where a person starts picking many more balls out of the dirt, stretching that extra bit to get the out, and having the range to turn some doubles down the line into outs, that's where the difference really starts to come in.

 

In short, at a position like shortstop or center field the first key for defense has to be somebody who can make the routine plays. If they can't make the routine plays consistently, they can hurt you defensively.

At first base, just about anyone can make the routine plays, so the focus shifts to who can make the non-routine plays. I think there is more opportunity to make non-routine plays at first than many other positions because of the frequency of chances.

 

I agree with you that Pujols is the best player in baseball.

 

I read an article a while back saying that the way to judge 1B defensively is to sort out how many times they did things that aren't common. Looking at FPCT is useless because it is mostly relatively easy PO. The stat they they looked at was "assists NOT to the pitcher" where suddenly Grace, Keith Hernandez, and others considered good defensive 1B started really shining.

[Mephistopheles]

That 2004 team was special, a 100-105 win team if Prior and Wood were healthy.

 

And Sosa, Ramirez, Borowski and Grudz.

 

Didn't Walker also miss some time?

 

2004 was a disaster.

As far as how the Cubs did, they scored enough runs and stopped enough runs to have a pythagorean w-l as 94-68

[nilodnayr]

That 2004 team was special, a 100-105 win team if Prior and Wood were healthy.

 

And Sosa, Ramirez, Borowski and Grudz.

 

Didn't Walker also miss some time?

 

2004 was a disaster.

 

About 2 months after I started working, our department had a rooftop the game that was the final nail in the coffin of the season. I had 15 labatts, no food, then went to Barleycorn and continued to drink uncontrolably and puked on the line of business leader.

[bc2k]

Jeff Gordon, the sports writer, not the race car driver:

 

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/jeffgordon/story/85D2F55AC9955350862572680060E273?OpenDocument

[Mephistopheles]

from the article posted above

 

But the Cardinals are just two players -– unsigned free agents Jeff Weaver and Preston Wilson -– away from bringing a powerhouse to training camp.

 

i stopped reading there.

[wolf stansson]

Jeff Gordon is a terrible, terrible journalist. If he were famous enough, he would make FJM weekly, but he isn't.

 

A bench of'er and a below league average pitcher do not make a powerhouse.

[XZero771679666304]

That 2004 team was special, a 100-105 win team if Prior and Wood were healthy.

 

And Sosa, Ramirez, Borowski and Grudz.

 

Didn't Walker also miss some time?

 

2004 was a disaster.

As far as how the Cubs did, they scored enough runs and stopped enough runs to have a pythagorean w-l as 94-68

 

Unfortunately as nice as stats are, the game is played on the field, not in a calculator.

 

The offense was streaky, and frustratingly inconsistent.

[XZero771679666304]

from the article posted above

 

But the Cardinals are just two players -– unsigned free agents Jeff Weaver and Preston Wilson -– away from bringing a powerhouse to training camp.

 

i stopped reading there.

 

 

LOL. The Cards are two more Albert Pujols and another Chris Carpenter from being a powerhouse.

 

No one if this division projects to be a powerhouse.

[Roast]

from the article posted above

 

But the Cardinals are just two players -– unsigned free agents Jeff Weaver and Preston Wilson -– away from bringing a powerhouse to training camp.

 

i stopped reading there.

 

First of all...Training camp?

 

Secondly, JEFF WEAVER AND PRESTON WILSON?!? If they make you a power house...wow. That hurts to think about.

[Brian]

from the article posted above

 

But the Cardinals are just two players -– unsigned free agents Jeff Weaver and Preston Wilson -– away from bringing a powerhouse to training camp.

 

i stopped reading there.

 

haha i stopped there too

[wolf stansson]

from the article posted above

 

But the Cardinals are just two players -– unsigned free agents Jeff Weaver and Preston Wilson -– away from bringing a powerhouse to training camp.

 

i stopped reading there.

 

 

LOL. The Cards are two more Albert Pujols and another Chris Carpenter from being a powerhouse.

 

No one if this division projects to be a powerhouse.

Hyperbole yes, but give us one more of one of those guys and it would make a powerhouse.