Are we actually the favorite in the NL Central right now?

[wastra]

I've never heard anyone claim Pujols' defense wasn't above average at first- perhaps (for some) markedly so.

 

For me, I think he's fairly sure-handed and pretty good at digging balls out of the dirt (the two most important roles for a 1B), likely due to his background on the left side of the infield before he bulked up (read: got on the roids).

 

He's not the kidn of "shortstop playing first" that some of the great defensive guys are like DLee, for instance, because he doesn't have amazing range any longer, but at the two most important defensive roles of a 1B (hands and as a receiver) he's excellent. I'd say he's average with his arm and range, however. That spells above average to me, well above average, IMO.

[CuseCubFan69]

Pujols has pretty soft hands and does a nice job at first.

[CubinNY]

Defense at first base is over rated. It is the easiest position to play on the baseball diamond. You don't have to take more than 3 or 4 steps or throw the ball most of the time.

 

I really don't care what position Pujols plays, he is the best player in baseball.

[CubColtPacer]

Defense at first base is over rated. It is the easiest position to play on the baseball diamond. You don't have to take more than 3 or 4 steps or throw the ball most of the time.

 

I really don't care what position Pujols plays, he is the best player in baseball.

 

It is the easiest position to play, but a great defender can certainly make a difference there. I think there is less variance in first baseman defensively in that below average to average is not as large of a difference at first base than other positions. When you start to get towards good to great though where a person starts picking many more balls out of the dirt, stretching that extra bit to get the out, and having the range to turn some doubles down the line into outs, that's where the difference really starts to come in.

 

In short, at a position like shortstop or center field the first key for defense has to be somebody who can make the routine plays. If they can't make the routine plays consistently, they can hurt you defensively.

At first base, just about anyone can make the routine plays, so the focus shifts to who can make the non-routine plays. I think there is more opportunity to make non-routine plays at first than many other positions because of the frequency of chances.

 

I agree with you that Pujols is the best player in baseball.

[Guest]

If:

 

• Zambrano can reign back in his walk rate and get back to his peak ground ball days while maintaining his gains in K's
  
• Prior can be healthy for 30 starts and back to the way he can pitch
  
• Hill pitches like he did in the second half of 2006 for the whole season
  
• Marquis remembers what he was doing well in 2004
  
• Lilly can actually top 200 IP
  
• Lee remembers what he did well in 2005
  
• Aramis continued to work on his leg conditioning this offseason
  
• Murton successfully adjusts his swing to add more loft without hurting his contact rate
  
• Soriano's 2006 wasn't a mirage
  
• Barrett can stay healthy and un-suspended
  
• Dempster remembers what 2005 was all about in the pen
  
• Wood has a Smoltz-channeling experience
  
• Izturis remembers what he was doing in that "all-star" year
  
• DeRosa remembers what he did for his one good half season of pro ball
  
• Pie has a blow out spring, gets the CF job and meets his Pecota projection

I think we can easily win 100 games.

[Andy]

If:

 

• Zambrano can reign back in his walk rate and get back to his peak ground ball days while maintaining his gains in K's
  
• Prior can be healthy for 30 starts and back to the way he can pitch
  
• Hill pitches like he did in the second half of 2006 for the whole season
  
• Marquis remembers what he was doing well in 2004
  
• Lilly can actually top 200 IP
  
• Lee remembers what he did well in 2005
  
• Aramis continued to work on his leg conditioning this offseason
  
• Murton successfully adjusts his swing to add more loft without hurting his contact rate
  
• Soriano's 2006 wasn't a mirage
  
• Barrett can stay healthy and un-suspended
  
• Dempster remembers what 2005 was all about in the pen
  
• Wood has a Smoltz-channeling experience
  
• Izturis remembers what he was doing in that "all-star" year
  
• DeRosa remembers what he did for his one good half season of pro ball
  
• Pie has a blow out spring, gets the CF job and meets his Pecota projection

I think we can easily win 100 games.

If that's all it takes, we've already got the division sewn up. :wink:

[Backtobanks]

If:

 

• Zambrano can reign back in his walk rate and get back to his peak ground ball days while maintaining his gains in K's
  
• Prior can be healthy for 30 starts and back to the way he can pitch
  
• Hill pitches like he did in the second half of 2006 for the whole season
  
• Marquis remembers what he was doing well in 2004
  
• Lilly can actually top 200 IP
  
• Lee remembers what he did well in 2005
  
• Aramis continued to work on his leg conditioning this offseason
  
• Murton successfully adjusts his swing to add more loft without hurting his contact rate
  
• Soriano's 2006 wasn't a mirage
  
• Barrett can stay healthy and un-suspended
  
• Dempster remembers what 2005 was all about in the pen
  
• Wood has a Smoltz-channeling experience
  
• Izturis remembers what he was doing in that "all-star" year
  
• DeRosa remembers what he did for his one good half season of pro ball
  
• Pie has a blow out spring, gets the CF job and meets his Pecota projection

I think we can easily win 100 games.

 

If all of those things happen, I would think we could win 130 games.

[Wheelimus]

I'd think that, right now, we're the favorites. Come the end of spring training, we might either be the clear favorites or be crying.

 

It's all going to come down to Uncle Lou and whether he's willing to do the things needed to win, or not. If he makes the moves that best benefit the team, some of our weaknesses will not be so glaring. If he doesn't and gives the veterans too much of a benefit of the doubt, we're screwed.

 

Case in point, Cesar Izturis. If he can keep shortstop from being an absolute black hole, we'll be making a big stride at that position from last year. .280/.330, his 2004 line, is at least tolerable. But if we're talking .250/.290 instead, will Lou have the guts to bench the expensive arthritic piece of crap? Because Ryan Theriot will blow that line out of the water. Or perhaps even Ronny Cedeno with some seasoning in AAA.

 

Another good example is Jason Marquis. If he regains 2004 form, we're golden. If it's 6 plus ERA land, we're hosed. Will Lou have the guts to toss him back to longman if he stinks? If so, we should be fine, the rapidly improving Angel Guzman, or Wade Miller, etc., could give us adequate production from the 5th starter spot.

 

Center field is going to hurt. I'm of the mind that if they're hell bent of ditching Jacque Jones, just play Pie. Steve Finley or Darin Erstad aren't going to give you anything better than Pie would.

 

So, you know, we have a lot of question marks. But I don't think EVERYTHING has to break our way to be the favorites in the division. Simply some things have to break our way.

 

So, odds are 50/50 at best. :x

[Jake]

To give you a literal answer to your question, here's what my sportbook has to say.

 

To win the Central:

 

1. Cardinals 7-5

2. Cubs 3-2

3. Brewers 5-1

4. Astros 8-1

5. Reds 10-1

6. Pirates 40-1

I think this is our best odds in a decade!

[Jake]

If:

 

• Zambrano can reign back in his walk rate and get back to his peak ground ball days while maintaining his gains in K's
  
• Prior can be healthy for 30 starts and back to the way he can pitch
  
• Hill pitches like he did in the second half of 2006 for the whole season
  
• Marquis remembers what he was doing well in 2004
  
• Lilly can actually top 200 IP
  
• Lee remembers what he did well in 2005
  
• Aramis continued to work on his leg conditioning this offseason
  
• Murton successfully adjusts his swing to add more loft without hurting his contact rate
  
• Soriano's 2006 wasn't a mirage
  
• Barrett can stay healthy and un-suspended
  
• Dempster remembers what 2005 was all about in the pen
  
• Wood has a Smoltz-channeling experience
  
• Izturis remembers what he was doing in that "all-star" year
  
• DeRosa remembers what he did for his one good half season of pro ball
  
• Pie has a blow out spring, gets the CF job and meets his Pecota projection

I think we can easily win 100 games.

 

If the queen had balls, she'd be the king.

[Guest]

That's kinda my point.

[CuseCubFan69]

That's kinda my point.

 

So now you're backing off your prediction that the Cubs will win 100 games? Talk about fickle!

[imb]

FLIP FLOP DEMOCRAT

[Yeti]

i really cant help but laugh everytime i read this thread title....thanks for bringing my life levity

[soccer10k]

To give you a literal answer to your question, here's what my sportbook has to say.

 

To win the Central:

 

1. Cardinals 7-5

2. Cubs 3-2

3. Brewers 5-1

4. Astros 8-1

5. Reds 10-1

6. Pirates 40-1

 

40-1 for the Pirates? That's being generous. I would put their odds of finishing higher than 5th (i.e. 4th or better) in the Central at 40-1.

[moorecg]

I doubt this deserves its own thread but I was thinking about this today and thought it might go into the division favorite thread...the more I look at it, if we don't do something stupid like trade Jones for a bag of balls we've got a pretty damn solid lineup...assuming health (which is a big assumption) we've got no reason not to be one of the best offenses in the division.

 

I would fill out our lineup card like this

 

Soriano

Murton

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

DeRosa

Izturis

Pitcher.

 

I have a feeling Lou will do it like this

 

Soriano

DeRosa

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Izturis

Pitcher

 

even with the second lineup thats better than anything we've had since 2003.

[Rob]

I doubt this deserves its own thread but I was thinking about this today and thought it might go into the division favorite thread...the more I look at it, if we don't do something stupid like trade Jones for a bag of balls we've got a pretty damn solid lineup...assuming health (which is a big assumption) we've got no reason not to be one of the best offenses in the division.

 

I would fill out our lineup card like this

 

Soriano

Murton

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

DeRosa

Izturis

Pitcher.

 

I have a feeling Lou will do it like this

 

Soriano

DeRosa

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Izturis

Pitcher

 

even with the second lineup thats better than anything we've had since 2003.

 

Really?

 

CPatt

Walker

Sosa

Alou

Ramirez

Lee

Barrett

Gonzalez

 

CPatt had put up a darn good half season in 2003, Walker was Walker in 2003, Sosa was still a damn good ballplayer, Alou was coming back to life, Ramirez was talented as all get-up, Lee was Lee, Barrett was a question mark, and Gonzalez was coming off a 20 HR season.

 

Going in to 2004 was much more exciting for our offense than going in to 2007.

[moorecg]

I doubt this deserves its own thread but I was thinking about this today and thought it might go into the division favorite thread...the more I look at it, if we don't do something stupid like trade Jones for a bag of balls we've got a pretty damn solid lineup...assuming health (which is a big assumption) we've got no reason not to be one of the best offenses in the division.

 

I would fill out our lineup card like this

 

Soriano

Murton

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

DeRosa

Izturis

Pitcher.

 

I have a feeling Lou will do it like this

 

Soriano

DeRosa

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Izturis

Pitcher

 

even with the second lineup thats better than anything we've had since 2003.

 

Really?

 

CPatt

Walker

Sosa

Alou

Ramirez

Lee

Barrett

Gonzalez

 

CPatt had put up a darn good half season in 2003, Walker was Walker in 2003, Sosa was still a damn good ballplayer, Alou was coming back to life, Ramirez was talented as all get-up, Lee was Lee, Barrett was a question mark, and Gonzalez was coming off a 20 HR season.

 

Going in to 2004 was much more exciting for our offense than going in to 2007.

CPatt didn't do much of anything in 04' Lee had yet to become DLee, Gonzalez was a bigger hole in the lineup that Izturis and Sosa was well into his down swing.

 

I take Sorino over CPatt every day. Same with 2007 Lee, Barrett and Ramirez. Walker is comparable to Derosa, but Walker was better offensively...That leaves you with Sosa/Alou v. Murton/Jones. Jones last year was very comprable to Sosa in 04...Alou was better than Murton.

 

I think this year's team should be better offensively than that one was.

[nilodnayr]

I doubt this deserves its own thread but I was thinking about this today and thought it might go into the division favorite thread...the more I look at it, if we don't do something stupid like trade Jones for a bag of balls we've got a pretty damn solid lineup...assuming health (which is a big assumption) we've got no reason not to be one of the best offenses in the division.

 

I would fill out our lineup card like this

 

Soriano

Murton

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

DeRosa

Izturis

Pitcher.

 

I have a feeling Lou will do it like this

 

Soriano

DeRosa

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Izturis

Pitcher

 

even with the second lineup thats better than anything we've had since 2003.

 

Really?

 

CPatt

Walker

Sosa

Alou

Ramirez

Lee

Barrett

Gonzalez

 

CPatt had put up a darn good half season in 2003, Walker was Walker in 2003, Sosa was still a damn good ballplayer, Alou was coming back to life, Ramirez was talented as all get-up, Lee was Lee, Barrett was a question mark, and Gonzalez was coming off a 20 HR season.

 

Going in to 2004 was much more exciting for our offense than going in to 2007.

CPatt didn't do much of anything in 04' Lee had yet to become DLee, Gonzalez was a bigger hole in the lineup that Izturis and Sosa was well into his down swing.

 

I take Sorino over CPatt every day. Same with 2007 Lee, Barrett and Ramirez. Walker is comparable to Derosa, but Walker was better offensively...That leaves you with Sosa/Alou v. Murton/Jones. Jones last year was very comprable to Sosa in 04...Alou was better than Murton.

 

I think this year's team should be better offensively than that one was.

 

Rob's point is that going into 2004 we had a better looking lineup than going into 2007.

[Rob]

CPatt didn't do much of anything in 04' Lee had yet to become DLee, Gonzalez was a bigger hole in the lineup that Izturis and Sosa was well into his down swing.

 

I take Sorino over CPatt every day. Same with 2007 Lee, Barrett and Ramirez. Walker is comparable to Derosa, but Walker was better offensively...That leaves you with Sosa/Alou v. Murton/Jones. Jones last year was very comprable to Sosa in 04...Alou was better than Murton.

 

I think this year's team should be better offensively than that one was.

 

 

My point was that heading into 2004, we had every right to think we would have a very productive offense. Things rarely work out just like they're supposed to, though. It'd be foolish to assume they will, or that the odds we get a ton of career years from people is more likely than getting injury-plagued half-seasons from important players.

 

So comparing positions, based on the preseason expectations, we would have ended up with this.

 

Pos     2004        vs        2007
C        Barrett      =          Barrett
1b       Lee          =          Lee
2b      Walker     >>>       DeRosa
SS      Gonzalez   =         Izturis
3b       Aram       =          Aram
RF      Sosa        >>>      Soriano
CF      CPatt       >>>      Jones
LF      Alou        >>>       Murton

 

You can make the argument again that 2004 didn't turn out well... but that's kinda my point. We had a much better group then and didn't get near the production we were looking for. Do you really think this ragtag bunch of misfits is more likely to give us that production than the 2004 group was?

[Mephistopheles]

That 2004 team was special, a 100-105 win team if Prior and Wood were healthy.

[XZero771679666304]

CPatt didn't do much of anything in 04' Lee had yet to become DLee, Gonzalez was a bigger hole in the lineup that Izturis and Sosa was well into his down swing.

 

I take Sorino over CPatt every day. Same with 2007 Lee, Barrett and Ramirez. Walker is comparable to Derosa, but Walker was better offensively...That leaves you with Sosa/Alou v. Murton/Jones. Jones last year was very comprable to Sosa in 04...Alou was better than Murton.

 

I think this year's team should be better offensively than that one was.

 

 

My point was that heading into 2004, we had every right to think we would have a very productive offense. Things rarely work out just like they're supposed to, though. It'd be foolish to assume they will, or that the odds we get a ton of career years from people is more likely than getting injury-plagued half-seasons from important players.

 

So comparing positions, based on the preseason expectations, we would have ended up with this.

 

Pos     2004        vs        2007
C        Barrett      =          Barrett
1b       Lee          =          Lee
2b      Walker     >>>       DeRosa
SS      Gonzalez   =         Izturis
3b       Aram       =          Aram
RF      Sosa        >>>      Soriano
CF      CPatt       >>>      Jones
LF      Alou        >>>       Murton

 

You can make the argument again that 2004 didn't turn out well... but that's kinda my point. We had a much better group then and didn't get near the production we were looking for. Do you really think this ragtag bunch of misfits is more likely to give us that production than the 2004 group was?

 

While I agree with you for the most part, I think it's fair to point out that both Lee and Ramirez were lesser offensive players pre-2004. I think that most people would have expected a .270/.360/.880 line from Lee in 2004, and about a .270/.330/.800 line from Ramirez.

 

Either of those lines would be sorely disappointing in 2007. So counting expectations as equal pre-2004 and now for those players would be inaccurate, IMO. I expected Patterson to be really good in 2004, and I expected AGon to at least hit 20 homers, making him better than Izturis. I expected Walker to be better than I expect DeRosa to be.

 

Also, Sosa was in pretty clear decline. I don't expect his 2003 numbers to be as good as Soriano's 2007, numbers, and I sure didn't expect his 2004 numbers to be either. Barrett was also an unknown quantity. I didn't expect much from him in 2004, except to be better than Miller/Bako, which is saying very little. I didn't expect Alou to produce like he did on 2004, either. Here's my relative expectation chart:

 

2007 2004

C Barrett >>> Barrett

1B Lee >> Lee

2B DeRosa << Walker

SS Izturis < Gonzo

3B Ramirez >> Ramirez

RF Soriano > Sosa

CF Jones << Patterson

LF Murton < Alou

 

 

And the lack of expected production in 2004 had a lot to do with injury as well.

[XZero771679666304]

That 2004 team was special, a 100-105 win team if Prior and Wood were healthy.

 

And Sosa, Ramirez, Borowski and Grudz.

 

Didn't Walker also miss some time?

 

2004 was a disaster.

[NCCubFan]

That 2004 team was special, a 100-105 win team if Prior and Wood were healthy.

 

And Sosa, Ramirez, Borowski and Grudz.

 

Didn't Walker also miss some time?

 

2004 was a disaster.

In 2004, no. In 2005, yes.

[Sammy Sofa]

That 2004 team was special, a 100-105 win team if Prior and Wood were healthy.

 

And Sosa, Ramirez, Borowski and Grudz.

 

Didn't Walker also miss some time?

 

2004 was a disaster.

 

I'll happily take 2004 again (in terms of standings) sans its last 2 weeks (those were the real disaster) over anything we've had since, and probably 2007, too.