Rumor: Guzman and Welly for Aubrey Huff

[don_kessinger_was_good]

If this deal is done, then my faith in Jim Hendry is somewhat rekindled. Here's hoping I wake up and the deal is done.

Only problem is, this isn't a new rumor or a new offer made by Hendry. It is one that has been on the table for a while and has yet to be accepted by Tampa Bay while they hold out for something better. So don't expect anything to happen on this front soon because there is no reason for either team to do anything quite yet. They are still waiting for the other person to blink.

 

However, if the deal does happen, whenever it happens, I will be a happy Cubs fan.

 

Exactly. It's apparently been on the table for a good week now, so that must mean he was right--Tampa is holding out for Hill, and Hendry won't cave. I don't know, if you're Hendry and you have to choose between Guzman and Hill, it's really a 50-50 crap shoot, isn't it? Guzman would seem to have the higher ceiling, but Hill seems ready to help right now.

 

We're in such a tough spot for RF facing alternatives like Jones, I think Hendry needs to blink as you put it and give Tampa the pitcher they want. Our need for that outfielder is greater than our need to choose between two pitching prospects, IMO.

[WrigleyinEngland]

I would do this in a shot and i would deal hill if they wanted him. If you end up dealing Hill + Welly why not invest $$ in Millwood?. You then effectively get Huff ( IMO Aram in disguise just needs to get out of TB) and Millwood ( who we will need post '06) is that not value for a guy who COULD be a middle of the order starter?.

[Peoriaman]

Hill is much more well thought of by other clubs than Guzman.

[Diffusion]

1) This time next year, there is an outside possibility that Wood is not a Cub. Rusch may have been traded, or pitched himself out of the rotation. Maddux will be gone for sure. Outside of Zambrano and Prior there are then no locks for the 2007 rotation, and that's assuming good health for our two young absolute stud top of the rotation not available for trade as far as I'm concerned aces.

 

2) The price of acquiring starting pitching from outside the organisation has become far, far too expensive. Aces are looking at $50m deals (like Burnett), middling pitchers are getting $20m (like Benson) just about every time. These are ridiculous prices, prices that the Cubs have fortunately been able to avoid of late (Maddux aside) because they've brought pitchers through the system. Internal options are the best means the Cubs have right now of filling any holes in the 2007 rotation.

 

3) The Cubs have already traded away three young pitchers that might have been able to step into the 2007 rotation. While the decision to move each of the pitchers this winter was probably defensible (Mitre out of options and would have needed to stick on the 2006 team*, Pinto only one option year left and still has significant control problems+, possibly selling high on Nolasco), the bottom line is that the Cubs have a whole lot less nearly major league ready pitching in the system now, and, sadly, they only have a pathetic haul in Pierre to show for it.

 

As far as young pitching for 2007 goes, then, we're only really left with Williams, Hill, Guzman, Marshall and Ryu. It's certainly possible that one of the arms that's a bit deeper in the system right now (Marmol perhaps, if he really tightens up his control, Blasko or Petrick if they come back unexpectedly strong, maybe Pawelek will fly through the system mechanics be damned, maybe someone else that's off my radar right now) will push themselves into contention, but really the Cubs only have those five, and potentially three spots to fill. The attrition rate for pitchers is high, injuries could intervene, performance could take an unforeseen turn for the worse, I don't think the Cubs have enough near-ready young pitching that they can afford to cash in on its bloated value for just one year of Huff in return while staying in good shape for 2007.

 

*Mitre should have been traded in the summer. +Pinto shouldn't have been added to the 40 in late 2003. That moving them this winter was defensible doesn't mean the Cubs don't deserve criticism. The Cubs didn't get the haul on Mitre they should have done, because they waited too long, and a Renyel Pinto with two option years left is a much more valuable commodity, and it's a real shame.

 

4) I'm really, really opposed, in general, to selling low on players, to selling yourself short. If the Cubs move Guzman now, I'm absolutely convinced that that's what they'd be doing. This is a still young pitcher with three genuine plus-plus pitches, great control, superb makeup. Yes, he has had problems staying healthy, worrying problems, but if he stays healthy long enough, he's going to be a top of the rotation pitcher. Yes, one year of Aubrey Huff will be more than we'll get for him in six months time if he blows his arm out, but it could also be a whole lot less than what we'd get for him if he stayed healthy for a while. I think the chance of the later happening is the greater, enough so that I really don't see a reason to deal Guzman, especially in light of my third point, at a time when injury concerns still hang over him. I'd much rather deal Williams or Ryu. In fact, Ryu and Wellemeyer I think is much closer to what Huff is actually worth given that he's only one year away from free agency, is coming off a pretty bad year and isn't too hot defensively.

 

5) I'm not entirely opposed to paying more (than Ryu and Wellemeyer), because of the severity of the right field hole, but if we're going to give up Hill (sell high on him, please!) instead of Ryu, I want the Devil Rays to throw in one of their surplus outfield prospects - Dukes or Bankston. I'd be willing to throw in someone else (on top of Hill and Wellemeyer) to make that happen if necessary, albeit not someone that great. Perhaps Rohlicek, Koronka, Bartosh, Valdez or Piggy, whoever the Rays like best. It's not as though the Devil Rays have any great bullpen lefties. Doing this deal though would be entirely dependent upon Abreu being an absolute no go.

[katway]

I'd add Hill into the deal only if we can also get Lugo.

[CubinNY]

I have wanted Huff since last year. I think this is a case of buying low. Huff is not as bad on defense as people here make him out to be. That said he is probably below average.

 

However, I do not like this deal one bit. The Cubs are giving up way, way, too much. Guzman throws strikes, has velocity, and fantastic secondary pitches. We all know the injury trouble, but he is still in his low 20s. Guzman's trade value could not be lower.

 

I really wish Hendry would offer up another pithcing prospect. This deal further reminds me how foolish it was to give up so much for Slappy Pierre.

[CuseCubFan69]

1) This time next year, there is an outside possibility that Wood is not a Cub. Rusch may have been traded, or pitched himself out of the rotation. Maddux will be gone for sure. Outside of Zambrano and Prior there are then no locks for the 2007 rotation, and that's assuming good health for our two young absolute stud top of the rotation not available for trade as far as I'm concerned aces.

 

2) The price of acquiring starting pitching from outside the organisation has become far, far too expensive. Aces are looking at $50m deals (like Burnett), middling pitchers are getting $20m (like Benson) just about every time. These are ridiculous prices, prices that the Cubs have fortunately been able to avoid of late (Maddux aside) because they've brought pitchers through the system. Internal options are the best means the Cubs have right now of filling any holes in the 2007 rotation.

 

3) The Cubs have already traded away three young pitchers that might have been able to step into the 2007 rotation. While the decision to move each of the pitchers this winter was probably defensible (Mitre out of options and would have needed to stick on the 2006 team*, Pinto only one option year left and still has significant control problems+, possibly selling high on Nolasco), the bottom line is that the Cubs have a whole lot less nearly major league ready pitching in the system now, and, sadly, they only have a pathetic haul in Pierre to show for it.

 

As far as young pitching for 2007 goes, then, we're only really left with Williams, Hill, Guzman, Marshall and Ryu. It's certainly possible that one of the arms that's a bit deeper in the system right now (Marmol perhaps, if he really tightens up his control, Blasko or Petrick if they come back unexpectedly strong, maybe Pawelek will fly through the system mechanics be damned, maybe someone else that's off my radar right now) will push themselves into contention, but really the Cubs only have those five, and potentially three spots to fill. The attrition rate for pitchers is high, injuries could intervene, performance could take an unforeseen turn for the worse, I don't think the Cubs have enough near-ready young pitching that they can afford to cash in on its bloated value for just one year of Huff in return while staying in good shape for 2007.

 

*Mitre should have been traded in the summer. +Pinto shouldn't have been added to the 40 in late 2003. That moving them this winter was defensible doesn't mean the Cubs don't deserve criticism. The Cubs didn't get the haul on Mitre they should have done, because they waited too long, and a Renyel Pinto with two option years left is a much more valuable commodity, and it's a real shame.

 

4) I'm really, really opposed, in general, to selling low on players, to selling yourself short. If the Cubs move Guzman now, I'm absolutely convinced that that's what they'd be doing. This is a still young pitcher with three genuine plus-plus pitches, great control, superb makeup. Yes, he has had problems staying healthy, worrying problems, but if he stays healthy long enough, he's going to be a top of the rotation pitcher. Yes, one year of Aubrey Huff will be more than we'll get for him in six months time if he blows his arm out, but it could also be a whole lot less than what we'd get for him if he stayed healthy for a while. I think the chance of the later happening is the greater, enough so that I really don't see a reason to deal Guzman, especially in light of my third point, at a time when injury concerns still hang over him. I'd much rather deal Williams or Ryu. In fact, Ryu and Wellemeyer I think is much closer to what Huff is actually worth given that he's only one year away from free agency, is coming off a pretty bad year and isn't too hot defensively.

 

5) I'm not entirely opposed to paying more (than Ryu and Wellemeyer), because of the severity of the right field hole, but if we're going to give up Hill (sell high on him, please!) instead of Ryu, I want the Devil Rays to throw in one of their surplus outfield prospects - Dukes or Bankston. I'd be willing to throw in someone else (on top of Hill and Wellemeyer) to make that happen if necessary, albeit not someone that great. Perhaps Rohlicek, Koronka, Bartosh, Valdez or Piggy, whoever the Rays like best. It's not as though the Devil Rays have any great bullpen lefties. Doing this deal though would be entirely dependent upon Abreu being an absolute no go.

 

What bothers me is that Hendry drafted all kinds of young pitching and all the Cubs can get out of it are mediocre talent. I'm hoping that Hendry didn't paint himself inot a corner by overpaying for Pierre.

[rawaction]

I'd really like the Cubs to hang onto Guzman. I'm not sure of his value at this point, but it's not near what it would be if the Cubs held onto him and he got healthy. I think it's worth the risk to keep him around if at all possible, simply for the upside. Obviously, if it comes down to giving up Guzman and having Huff in RF or not giving up Guzman and having Jones in RF, then you trade Angel.

 

If Tampa really wants Rich Hill, I'd probably add him and throw in another (any non Gallagher, Marshall, Marmol, Williams) arm and see if they would be willing to part with Lugo. If not, they have to throw in a prospect on their end.

[UK1679666180]

I was impressed from what I seen from Guzman in one of his starts with Peoria. If they send him to AA, I'd iimagine, he'd be able to handle it well. I still think the majority of his mechanical problems are from a lack of a follow-thru, he puts too much strain on the rotator cuff by cutting his pitches short.

[mg420]

huff is not a good option imo. he's a butcher in the field & guzman is too much to give up for him. i would much rather see wilkerson in rf. if not brad, maybe giving corey another shot & batting him 7th is not a bad idea. with pinto & nolasco gone, hill & guzman are just about the only minor league guys ready (or almost ready in guzman's case because of his health issues) to step up in the majors in case of injury.

[USSoccer]

I'd rather not completely gut the top pitching prospects in our system for 2 guys (Pierre and Huff) that are not difference makers. I don't think Huff is very good, I believe the reports of him having attitude issues are more than just him being stuck in Tampa, and all arguments I've had about Guzman aside, he's worth more to us than he should be in a trade to other teams.

 

If this goes down, in 2 years we will have lost Sisco, Pinto, Mitre, Leicester, Nolasco, Guzman and Welley, and gotten Juan Pierre and Aubrey Huff for our troubles. That's called misusing your assets.

 

So I hope that the other deal on the table is the one that goes down.

[Blueheart05]

What I like about Huff is that his downside (2005) is Burnitz-level production, but if that's as bad as it gets, then he's worth the trade for the upside--his numbers in 02-04 are quite nice. As for the defense argument, sure, I'd prefer a strong defensive RF, but honestly--we got by fine for the most part with Sammy out there, and for the second half of his career he was pretty much a butcher in the field, too.

 

By the way, the speculation as it was related to me was that Tampa was holding out for Hill INSTEAD of Guzman, not in addition to him. So the question to you is Hill + Wellemeyer, is that a fair deal or not? I think so, but apparently Hendry does not.

 

Of course they were because Hill has more value than the oft-injured Guzman. I wouldn't make this trade as it stands. Huff isn't a complete enough player for my tastes. However, if they were willing to part with Lugo and Huff I'd be more inclined to deal Hill and other prospects. I still don't believe that Walker will be on this team when the season starts so Lugo fits perfectly into the second slot in the batting order.

[Rooftop Bum]

Yeah, I would like to see Lugo thrown in there as well. Please.

[rawaction]

I'd rather not completely gut the top pitching prospects in our system for 2 guys (Pierre and Huff) that are not difference makers. I don't think Huff is very good, I believe the reports of him having attitude issues are more than just him being stuck in Tampa, and all arguments I've had about Guzman aside, he's worth more to us than he should be in a trade to other teams.

 

If this goes down, in 2 years we will have lost Sisco, Pinto, Mitre, Leicester, Nolasco, Guzman and Welley, and gotten Juan Pierre and Aubrey Huff for our troubles. That's called misusing your assets.

 

So I hope that the other deal on the table is the one that goes down.

 

I understand where you are coming from. But this isn't the deal that will hurt the team. Letting Sisco go and trading 3 arms for Pierre hurt more. Unfortunately, the Cubs are at the point where they have no choice but to trade pitching if they want to finish outside of 5th place in the NL Central. I'd rather NOT have Jacque Jones in RF. And the only way that or a similar move doesn't happen is if the Cubs trade their pitching prospects.

 

For the 2nd year in a row, Hendry has backed himself in a corner in getting a RF.

[cbbryan]

If the Cubs go after a Tampa outfielder, it shouldn't be Huff.

[professahesse]

Not to cast aspersions or rain on anyone's parade, but is there any possibility that Huff's down year (and even his alleged attitude problems) could be the result of coming off the juice? Just a thought.

[Blueheart05]

Not to cast aspersions or rain on anyone's parade, but is there any possibility that Huff's down year (and even his alleged attitude problems) could be the result of coming off the juice? Just a thought.

 

I don't know much about his supposed attitude problems but given the stricter steroid testing, last season, it raises some concerns.

[CP_414]

Not to cast aspersions or rain on anyone's parade, but is there any possibility that Huff's down year (and even his alleged attitude problems) could be the result of coming off the juice? Just a thought.

 

Throughout the history of baseball good players have had "down years." For every player who had a down year in 2005, we have to ask this question. It sucks, but it is true. If there is no evidence other than his 2005 numbers, I wouldn't be too worried about it. He got off to a horrible start, but slugged the ball pretty well after the first few months of the season last year. He was playing through injuries early in the season and it helped him get off to the slow start. It also wasn't much of a secret that he was frustrated to still be a D-Ray, and I think that hurt his performance. He was very good in 2002, 2003, and 2004...I anticipate he will return to that form in 2006.

[USSoccer]

I'd rather not completely gut the top pitching prospects in our system for 2 guys (Pierre and Huff) that are not difference makers. I don't think Huff is very good, I believe the reports of him having attitude issues are more than just him being stuck in Tampa, and all arguments I've had about Guzman aside, he's worth more to us than he should be in a trade to other teams.

 

If this goes down, in 2 years we will have lost Sisco, Pinto, Mitre, Leicester, Nolasco, Guzman and Welley, and gotten Juan Pierre and Aubrey Huff for our troubles. That's called misusing your assets.

 

So I hope that the other deal on the table is the one that goes down.

 

I understand where you are coming from. But this isn't the deal that will hurt the team. Letting Sisco go and trading 3 arms for Pierre hurt more. Unfortunately, the Cubs are at the point where they have no choice but to trade pitching if they want to finish outside of 5th place in the NL Central. I'd rather NOT have Jacque Jones in RF. And the only way that or a similar move doesn't happen is if the Cubs trade their pitching prospects.

 

For the 2nd year in a row, Hendry has backed himself in a corner in getting a RF.

 

Juan Encarnacion 3 year stats:

 

.265 .320 .434 .754

 

Aubrey Huff 3 year:

 

.290 .350 .494 .844

 

Preston Wilson:

 

.268 .332 .487 .819

 

J. Jones:

 

.268 .322 .443 .765

 

You're probably right.

[sporrer17]

Prior and Z will be here for a few more seasons, at least. They'll likely be locked up if/when they are eligible for FA.

 

Prior

Zambrano

Williams

FA/Rook

FA/Rook

 

Potential In-house prospects: Marshall, Marmol, Ryu, Guzman, Hill

 

So basically, keep the 3 young guys we already have here, and add a marginal FA...and let one of the younger guys. Or, if they appear ready, let them take two spots.

 

Honestly, I'd trade Hill/Welly for Huff right now if needed

[Tim]

I'll start of by seconding all the points that Diffusion made.

 

I'd say no to Guzman + XXXX for Huff. I'd say yes to Guzman + XXXX for Gomes. I'd build a package of guys that included Guzman to get Huff + Lugo. But Huff has too many question marks for me to let go of Guzman for one year of him (even if there are draft picks coming as compensation for him afterwards).

 

Based on my ranking, I'm obviously still a big believer in Angel. I think that the extra year back from surgery will prove to be enough and that he'll have a breakout year. I recognize the injury concerns given the shoulder issues for Angel.

 

My philosophy here is simple. It is always hard to trade for a young star or sign one in his prime. If you've got a guy in your system that has that potential, you hang onto him and trade others. Even if there are concerns about health with the prospect, I still hang onto him. Guzman is one of three or four guys in the system right now that I would place that tag on (with Hill in or out depending on the day).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If this deal is done, then my faith in Jim Hendry is somewhat rekindled. Here's hoping I wake up and the deal is done.

Only problem is, this isn't a new rumor or a new offer made by Hendry. It is one that has been on the table for a while and has yet to be accepted by Tampa Bay while they hold out for something better. So don't expect anything to happen on this front soon because there is no reason for either team to do anything quite yet. They are still waiting for the other person to blink.

 

However, if the deal does happen, whenever it happens, I will be a happy Cubs fan.

 

Exactly. It's apparently been on the table for a good week now, so that must mean he was right--Tampa is holding out for Hill, and Hendry won't cave. I don't know, if you're Hendry and you have to choose between Guzman and Hill, it's really a 50-50 crap shoot, isn't it? Guzman would seem to have the higher ceiling, but Hill seems ready to help right now.

 

We're in such a tough spot for RF facing alternatives like Jones, I think Hendry needs to blink as you put it and give Tampa the pitcher they want. Our need for that outfielder is greater than our need to choose between two pitching prospects, IMO.

 

He could be waiting until the non-tender deadline to see if someone like Craig Wilson or even the aforementioned Gibbons becomes available, before deciding to up the ante for Huff.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'll start of by seconding all the points that Diffusion made.

 

I'd say no to Guzman + XXXX for Huff. I'd say yes to Guzman + XXXX for Gomes. I'd build a package of guys that included Guzman to get Huff + Lugo. But Huff has too many question marks for me to let go of Guzman for one year of him (even if there are draft picks coming as compensation for him afterwards).

 

Based on my ranking, I'm obviously still a big believer in Angel. I think that the extra year back from surgery will prove to be enough and that he'll have a breakout year. I recognize the injury concerns given the shoulder issues for Angel.

 

My philosophy here is simple. It is always hard to trade for a young star or sign one in his prime. If you've got a guy in your system that has that potential, you hang onto him and trade others. Even if there are concerns about health with the prospect, I still hang onto him. Guzman is one of three or four guys in the system right now that I would place that tag on (with Hill in or out depending on the day).

 

Pie and Dope being the other two?

[Tim]

I'll start of by seconding all the points that Diffusion made.

 

I'd say no to Guzman + XXXX for Huff. I'd say yes to Guzman + XXXX for Gomes. I'd build a package of guys that included Guzman to get Huff + Lugo. But Huff has too many question marks for me to let go of Guzman for one year of him (even if there are draft picks coming as compensation for him afterwards).

 

Based on my ranking, I'm obviously still a big believer in Angel. I think that the extra year back from surgery will prove to be enough and that he'll have a breakout year. I recognize the injury concerns given the shoulder issues for Angel.

 

My philosophy here is simple. It is always hard to trade for a young star or sign one in his prime. If you've got a guy in your system that has that potential, you hang onto him and trade others. Even if there are concerns about health with the prospect, I still hang onto him. Guzman is one of three or four guys in the system right now that I would place that tag on (with Hill in or out depending on the day).

 

Pie and Dope being the other two?

Pie and Pawelek.

 

Dope and Harvey would reach that level if they improve their plate discipline.

[CuseCubFan69]

If this deal is done, then my faith in Jim Hendry is somewhat rekindled. Here's hoping I wake up and the deal is done.

Only problem is, this isn't a new rumor or a new offer made by Hendry. It is one that has been on the table for a while and has yet to be accepted by Tampa Bay while they hold out for something better. So don't expect anything to happen on this front soon because there is no reason for either team to do anything quite yet. They are still waiting for the other person to blink.

 

However, if the deal does happen, whenever it happens, I will be a happy Cubs fan.

 

Exactly. It's apparently been on the table for a good week now, so that must mean he was right--Tampa is holding out for Hill, and Hendry won't cave. I don't know, if you're Hendry and you have to choose between Guzman and Hill, it's really a 50-50 crap shoot, isn't it? Guzman would seem to have the higher ceiling, but Hill seems ready to help right now.

 

We're in such a tough spot for RF facing alternatives like Jones, I think Hendry needs to blink as you put it and give Tampa the pitcher they want. Our need for that outfielder is greater than our need to choose between two pitching prospects, IMO.

 

He could be waiting until the non-tender deadline to see if someone like Craig Wilson or even the aforementioned Gibbons becomes available, before deciding to up the ante for Huff.

 

I'd rather have Wilson and Gibbons.