Rumor: Guzman and Welly for Aubrey Huff

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If this deal is done, then my faith in Jim Hendry is somewhat rekindled. Here's hoping I wake up and the deal is done.

Only problem is, this isn't a new rumor or a new offer made by Hendry. It is one that has been on the table for a while and has yet to be accepted by Tampa Bay while they hold out for something better. So don't expect anything to happen on this front soon because there is no reason for either team to do anything quite yet. They are still waiting for the other person to blink.

 

However, if the deal does happen, whenever it happens, I will be a happy Cubs fan.

 

Exactly. It's apparently been on the table for a good week now, so that must mean he was right--Tampa is holding out for Hill, and Hendry won't cave. I don't know, if you're Hendry and you have to choose between Guzman and Hill, it's really a 50-50 crap shoot, isn't it? Guzman would seem to have the higher ceiling, but Hill seems ready to help right now.

 

We're in such a tough spot for RF facing alternatives like Jones, I think Hendry needs to blink as you put it and give Tampa the pitcher they want. Our need for that outfielder is greater than our need to choose between two pitching prospects, IMO.

 

He could be waiting until the non-tender deadline to see if someone like Craig Wilson or even the aforementioned Gibbons becomes available, before deciding to up the ante for Huff.

 

I'd rather have Wilson and Gibbons.

 

For me, it's Wilson > Huff > Gibbons, but my preference depends on the cost of each.

[Deeg]

I think it's remarkable that so many here have an inflated opinion of Guzman's trade value. He hasn't been an effective minor league pitcher for more than two years. In addition to the normal uncertaintly attached to a young arm, there's the questions of whether he'll ever have the same stuff he had pre-surgery and whether he can stay healthy. If you can turn a cipher like that into Huff, you should do it in a heartbeat. I think this a classic example of Cub fans overvaluing our own prospects.

[CuseCubFan69]

He could be waiting until the non-tender deadline to see if someone like Craig Wilson or even the aforementioned Gibbons becomes available, before deciding to up the ante for Huff.

 

I'd rather have Wilson and Gibbons.

 

For me, it's Wilson > Huff > Gibbons, but my preference depends on the cost of each.

 

I meant that I wanted both Wilson and Gibbons. That would give the Cubs 5 pretty decent options in the OF, no impact but decent as long as Hendry doesn't overpay for either.

[TrueBlueCubFan]

He could be waiting until the non-tender deadline to see if someone like Craig Wilson or even the aforementioned Gibbons becomes available, before deciding to up the ante for Huff.

 

I'd rather have Wilson and Gibbons.

 

For me, it's Wilson > Huff > Gibbons, but my preference depends on the cost of each.

 

I meant that I wanted both Wilson and Gibbons. That would give the Cubs 5 pretty decent options in the OF, no impact but decent as long as Hendry doesn't overpay for either.

In this thin FA market, especially for OF's, overpaying is going to be the only way to land one. Same goes for the trade market for an OF. You are going to have to overpay. It's just the way it is.

[CuseCubFan69]

He could be waiting until the non-tender deadline to see if someone like Craig Wilson or even the aforementioned Gibbons becomes available, before deciding to up the ante for Huff.

 

I'd rather have Wilson and Gibbons.

 

For me, it's Wilson > Huff > Gibbons, but my preference depends on the cost of each.

 

I meant that I wanted both Wilson and Gibbons. That would give the Cubs 5 pretty decent options in the OF, no impact but decent as long as Hendry doesn't overpay for either.

In this thin FA market, especially for OF's, overpaying is going to be the only way to land one. Same goes for the trade market for an OF. You are going to have to overpay. It's just the way it is.

 

You're probably right but as UK said, maybe the Cubs could go for a Mora or another overpriced OF that a team can't afford that will be a free agent in a year or 2.

[Tim]

I think it's remarkable that so many here have an inflated opinion of Guzman's trade value. He hasn't been an effective minor league pitcher for more than two years. In addition to the normal uncertaintly attached to a young arm, there's the questions of whether he'll ever have the same stuff he had pre-surgery and whether he can stay healthy. If you can turn a cipher like that into Huff, you should do it in a heartbeat. I think this a classic example of Cub fans overvaluing our own prospects.

I think you are misinterpreting the position of at least some of us. It isn't that we think he can bring that much more in a trade. It is that we think he has that much more potential value to the Cubs.

 

People do recover from injuries. Guzman's recovery time from shoulder surgery really isn't that unusual. I can understand the argument to ship him out. I just don't agree with it for a player like Huff, who is in the last year of his deal and has major questions of his own.

[USSoccer]

I think it's remarkable that so many here have an inflated opinion of Guzman's trade value. He hasn't been an effective minor league pitcher for more than two years. In addition to the normal uncertaintly attached to a young arm, there's the questions of whether he'll ever have the same stuff he had pre-surgery and whether he can stay healthy. If you can turn a cipher like that into Huff, you should do it in a heartbeat. I think this a classic example of Cub fans overvaluing our own prospects.

I think you are misinterpreting the position of at least some of us. It isn't that we think he can bring that much more in a trade. It is that we think he has that much more potential value to the Cubs.

 

People do recover from injuries. Guzman's recovery time from shoulder surgery really isn't that unusual. I can understand the argument to ship him out. I just don't agree with it for a player like Huff, who is in the last year of his deal and has major questions of his own.

 

I think that's perfectly put.

[jjgman21]

I think it's remarkable that so many here have an inflated opinion of Guzman's trade value. He hasn't been an effective minor league pitcher for more than two years. In addition to the normal uncertaintly attached to a young arm, there's the questions of whether he'll ever have the same stuff he had pre-surgery and whether he can stay healthy. If you can turn a cipher like that into Huff, you should do it in a heartbeat. I think this a classic example of Cub fans overvaluing our own prospects.

 

I agree 100%. we are talking about a pitcher that has combined for 156 innings the past three years. and contrary to what has been said earlier, he's not in his early 20's, he turned 25 a few days ago (not that his age is the death of his potential).

 

furthermore, if this trade is gutting the system for a player that isn't a difference maker (and for the record, I disagree that Huff wouldn't be a difference maker), what would happen to the system for a guy that is a difference maker?

 

edit: this is posted before seeing what Tim wrote about misinterpreting. nonetheless, I think Guzman's greatest value to this team, considering the presence of Williams and Hill, is to ship him out.

 

yes, players recover from injury, but rarely does a pitcher recover from labrum surgery and go onto have any sustained success.

[Mizzou]

A pitcher who's last decent season was in 2003 - and that was in AA - plus a guy who's NEVER had success at the major league level for Huff? Sign me up all over that one.

 

Last year was the first in awhile that Huff's OPS wasn't above 850... I'm pretty sure that it'll surpass that next year if he's hitting in between Lee and Ramirez.

 

Plus, he's only due 6.75 million next year. In this market, that's a bargain.

[Deeg]

Tim, if you're arguing that we shouldn't trade Guzman because his trade value is at a low ebb, fine - that's the case I make for Patterson. But my point is that getting Huff for him is a pretty damn good return - and I think TB's reluctance to accept such an offer (if it exists) would be the evidence of that. I think you're undervaluing Huff - he has the arm to play RF, his other defensive skills are average, and he's young enough to still have his best days ahead of him. He also gives you a viable option at 3B if (when) A-Ram gets hurt for an extended period.

[UK1679666180]

What if TB doesn't want Guzman?

 

I think if TB wanted Guzman, that deal would've been done.

[CubinNY]

I think it's remarkable that so many here have an inflated opinion of Guzman's trade value. He hasn't been an effective minor league pitcher for more than two years. In addition to the normal uncertaintly attached to a young arm, there's the questions of whether he'll ever have the same stuff he had pre-surgery and whether he can stay healthy. If you can turn a cipher like that into Huff, you should do it in a heartbeat. I think this a classic example of Cub fans overvaluing our own prospects.

 

I agree 100%. we are talking about a pitcher that has combined for 156 innings the past three years. and contrary to what has been said earlier, he's not in his early 20's, he turned 25 a few days ago (not that his age is the death of his potential).

 

furthermore, if this trade is gutting the system for a player that isn't a difference maker (and for the record, I disagree that Huff wouldn't be a difference maker), what would happen to the system for a guy that is a difference maker?

 

edit: this is posted before seeing what Tim wrote about misinterpreting. nonetheless, I think Guzman's greatest value to this team, considering the presence of Williams and Hill, is to ship him out.

 

yes, players recover from injury, but rarely does a pitcher recover from labrum surgery and go onto have any sustained success.

 

Guzaman has already come back for labrum surgery, if one wants to belive the reports of people who post here and has seen him pitch, Baseball America, Cub scouts, other team's scouts, and radar guns.

 

In limited work last year after the mysterious forearm injury he came back to pitch very well, ALL THE VELOCITY WAS BACK, as were the crispness of his breaking pitches. However, he was uncharecteristicly wild. The wildness is somewhat understandable given the limited amount of innings he's pitched.

 

Guzman is a definate injury risk, but he is also still the Cubs best pitching prsospect. It is foolish to trade him plus another player for soemone like Huff.

 

Huff hasn't been a difference maker in his entire career and is coming off his worst season in the majors. I think he has potential but his value should be low as he is going to be expensive after next year.

[BigbadB]

I've been a proponent of trading for Huff ever since it was clear Hendry had no interest in Giles. I like Huff.

 

However, this is not a deal I would make with Tampa. Tampa would love nothing more than to be rid of Huff and his 5m+ price tag in his free agent year. Are they going to offer him a long term deal if they keep him? Are they going to sit a disgruntled Delmon Young another year because they couldn't move Huff?

 

If scouts and medical staff believe that Guzman's arm will never get back to what it was, then I'd probably make the deal. However, if Guzman has any inkling of returning to form, there is no way I give Tampa a top prospect for a guy in the last year of his contract, makes as much as he does, AND is coming off a bad year.

 

If the Cubs do this deal, I'm going to be upset with this entire offseason. To make up for lost opportunities, they continue to overspend for mediocrity. This would be Ed Lynch all over again, IMO.

 

Is Ricky Nolasco, Angel Guzman, Renyel Pinto, Sergio Mitre, and Todd Wellemeyer worth Juan Pierre and Aubrey Huff? Seriously?

 

5 serviceable arms for two guys in their walk years, both coming off their worst seasons? Uggh. All 5 of them are starter material.

 

Better yet, does anyone know that Aubrey Huff's contract will pay him 7.5m next year? Let Tampa pay him 7.5m to sit the bench next year. See if they'd rather do that than accept Wellemeyer and Koronka for him.

 

I just want to go on record that if this deal happens, and Guzman turns into a stud starter and Nomar has an injury free year, I will be one very pissed off Cub fan.

 

Wouldn't Mitre, Nolasco, Guzman, Pinto and Wellemeyer have been enough to get Julio Lugo, Aubrey Huff AND Joey Gathright, with Tampa picking up part of Lugo or Huff's contract for next year?

 

Gathright is Pierre Jr.. Lugo is nearly identical to Furcal (minus a ridiculous contract), and Huff is a desperately needed LH power bat.

 

These rumors make me absolutely sick to my stomach.

[Tim]

Tim, if you're arguing that we shouldn't trade Guzman because his trade value is at a low ebb, fine - that's the case I make for Patterson. But my point is that getting Huff for him is a pretty damn good return - and I think TB's reluctance to accept such an offer (if it exists) would be the evidence of that. I think you're undervaluing Huff - he has the arm to play RF, his other defensive skills are average, and he's young enough to still have his best days ahead of him. He also gives you a viable option at 3B if (when) A-Ram gets hurt for an extended period.

I think a big part of this is that we value Huff differently. 1) I don't think his defensive skills are even close to average. 2) I think there are very legitimate concerns with him about the nature of his decline the past two years. I like Huff and I'd give up many of the guys in the system to get him. But I'd be reluctant to part with Guzman, Hill, Pie or Pawelek (though he's not yet eligible to be dealt) to get him. If we could target Gomes instead or if the deal could be expanded to include Lugo, then I'd be more comfortable with losing Angel.

 

That said, the upside I can see with Huff that nobody has mentioned is that if Aramis goes down again, Huff could slide in at third and it would be easier to replace an OF with reasonable production than 3B.

[Deeg]

Tim, if you're arguing that we shouldn't trade Guzman because his trade value is at a low ebb, fine - that's the case I make for Patterson. But my point is that getting Huff for him is a pretty damn good return - and I think TB's reluctance to accept such an offer (if it exists) would be the evidence of that. I think you're undervaluing Huff - he has the arm to play RF, his other defensive skills are average, and he's young enough to still have his best days ahead of him. He also gives you a viable option at 3B if (when) A-Ram gets hurt for an extended period.

I think a big part of this is that we value Huff differently. 1) I don't think his defensive skills are even close to average. 2) I think there are very legitimate concerns with him about the nature of his decline the past two years. I like Huff and I'd give up many of the guys in the system to get him. But I'd be reluctant to part with Guzman, Hill, Pie or Pawelek (though he's not yet eligible to be dealt) to get him. If we could target Gomes instead or if the deal could be expanded to include Lugo, then I'd be more comfortable with losing Angel.

 

That said, the upside I can see with Huff that nobody has mentioned is that if Aramis goes down again, Huff could slide in at third and it would be easier to replace an OF with reasonable production than 3B.

 

Umm... Nobody mentioned it?

[Deeg]

Wouldn't Mitre, Nolasco, Guzman, Pinto and Wellemeyer have been enough to get Julio Lugo, Aubrey Huff AND Joey Gathright, with Tampa picking up part of Lugo or Huff's contract for next year?

 

No.

 

Gathright is Pierre Jr.. Lugo is nearly identical to Furcal (minus a ridiculous contract)

 

Assuming they were DH's, I'd almost agree with you. Unfortunately for that analysis, though, SS is the most important defensive position in the game.

[Tim]

Tim, if you're arguing that we shouldn't trade Guzman because his trade value is at a low ebb, fine - that's the case I make for Patterson. But my point is that getting Huff for him is a pretty damn good return - and I think TB's reluctance to accept such an offer (if it exists) would be the evidence of that. I think you're undervaluing Huff - he has the arm to play RF, his other defensive skills are average, and he's young enough to still have his best days ahead of him. He also gives you a viable option at 3B if (when) A-Ram gets hurt for an extended period.

I think a big part of this is that we value Huff differently. 1) I don't think his defensive skills are even close to average. 2) I think there are very legitimate concerns with him about the nature of his decline the past two years. I like Huff and I'd give up many of the guys in the system to get him. But I'd be reluctant to part with Guzman, Hill, Pie or Pawelek (though he's not yet eligible to be dealt) to get him. If we could target Gomes instead or if the deal could be expanded to include Lugo, then I'd be more comfortable with losing Angel.

 

That said, the upside I can see with Huff that nobody has mentioned is that if Aramis goes down again, Huff could slide in at third and it would be easier to replace an OF with reasonable production than 3B.

 

Umm... Nobody mentioned it?

:oops: :oops: :oops: :oops:

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Gathright is Pierre Jr.. Lugo is nearly identical to Furcal (minus a ridiculous contract)

 

Assuming they were DH's, I'd almost agree with you. Unfortunately for that analysis, though, SS is the most important defensive position in the game.

 

And Lugo is a great defensive SS, no worse than Furcal.

[BigbadB]

 

No.

 

Just no, huh? Tampa can shoot for the moon if they want, but I find it hard to believe they would rather go into the season paying Huff and Lugo a combined 12m when they have depth at both positions, and major weaknesses on the mound.

 

They are a small market team. They can't afford to pay 2 guys 12m. Especially when they can bring up Delmon Young and BJ Upton to replace those 2 for league minimum.

 

Maybe my position is whacked. Maybe Tampa really would hold every team over a barrel at this point in the offseason for a guy who had a very bad year (Huff). If I'm Hendry, I look elsewhere. Prior to the first game of this season, I'm going to bet that Tampa backs way off on those demands.

 

Is Tampa a playoff caliber team with these guys? No. Is the 12m better spent getting some pitching before they lose them to free agency? Yes.

 

I would have much rather seen Hendry make a move like the one I suggested over WAY overpaying for Pierre in his walk year and then overpaying for Huff also in his walk year. Granted, because it is their walk year, we may get one of those contract year like seasons (Adrian Beltre). But, they could be gone next year, and all those prospects will be gone too.

 

I'm not even sure these additions will make the Cubs a playoff caliber team. My Magic 8-Ball says "Outlook not good".

[CardsFanInChiTown]

 

No.

 

Just no, huh? Tampa can shoot for the moon if they want, but I find it hard to believe they would rather go into the season paying Huff and Lugo a combined 12m when they have depth at both positions, and major weaknesses on the mound.

 

They are a small market team. They can't afford to pay 2 guys 12m. Especially when they can bring up Delmon Young and BJ Upton to replace those 2 for league minimum.

 

Maybe my position is whacked. Maybe Tampa really would hold every team over a barrel at this point in the offseason for a guy who had a very bad year (Huff). If I'm Hendry, I look elsewhere. Prior to the first game of this season, I'm going to bet that Tampa backs way off on those demands.

 

Is Tampa a playoff caliber team with these guys? No. Is the 12m better spent getting some pitching before they lose them to free agency? Yes.

 

I would have much rather seen Hendry make a move like the one I suggested over WAY overpaying for Pierre in his walk year and then overpaying for Huff also in his walk year. Granted, because it is their walk year, we may get one of those contract year like seasons (Adrian Beltre). But, they could be gone next year, and all those prospects will be gone too.

 

I'm not even sure these additions will make the Cubs a playoff caliber team. My Magic 8-Ball says "Outlook not good".

 

Just because they are looking to deal doesn't mean Mitre, Nolasco, Guzman, Pinto and Wellemeyer would get it done. There are 28 other trading partners out there. I really think Tampa can get more for those guys.

[Deeg]

Gathright is Pierre Jr.. Lugo is nearly identical to Furcal (minus a ridiculous contract)

 

Assuming they were DH's, I'd almost agree with you. Unfortunately for that analysis, though, SS is the most important defensive position in the game.

 

And Lugo is a great defensive SS, no worse than Furcal.

 

I don't know which of those statements is more ludicrous but if you believe either, I can't believe you've ever seen Lugo or Furcal play.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Gathright is Pierre Jr.. Lugo is nearly identical to Furcal (minus a ridiculous contract)

 

Assuming they were DH's, I'd almost agree with you. Unfortunately for that analysis, though, SS is the most important defensive position in the game.

 

And Lugo is a great defensive SS, no worse than Furcal.

 

I don't know which of those statements is more ludicrous but if you believe either, I can't believe you've ever seen Lugo or Furcal play.

 

I haven't seen either play a ton, and I'd guess not many people have seen enough of both to make an accurate visual assessment, that's why I trust other things. Furcal and Lugo are similar in just about every single fielding metric you can find, with Furcal having a career year defensively last year.

[CoolHandLuke]

I think it's remarkable that so many here have an inflated opinion of Guzman's trade value. He hasn't been an effective minor league pitcher for more than two years. In addition to the normal uncertaintly attached to a young arm, there's the questions of whether he'll ever have the same stuff he had pre-surgery and whether he can stay healthy. If you can turn a cipher like that into Huff, you should do it in a heartbeat. I think this a classic example of Cub fans overvaluing our own prospects.

 

I agree 100%. we are talking about a pitcher that has combined for 156 innings the past three years. and contrary to what has been said earlier, he's not in his early 20's, he turned 25 a few days ago (not that his age is the death of his potential).

 

furthermore, if this trade is gutting the system for a player that isn't a difference maker (and for the record, I disagree that Huff wouldn't be a difference maker), what would happen to the system for a guy that is a difference maker?

 

edit: this is posted before seeing what Tim wrote about misinterpreting. nonetheless, I think Guzman's greatest value to this team, considering the presence of Williams and Hill, is to ship him out.

 

yes, players recover from injury, but rarely does a pitcher recover from labrum surgery and go onto have any sustained success.

 

He just turned 24, not 25

[Soul]

It remains to be seen if Guzman will ever really recover his pitching ability, as far as I know.

 

Hopefully he will, but other teams aren't stupid either. Well, most aren't.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It remains to be seen if Guzman will ever really recover his pitching ability, as far as I know.

 

Hopefully he will, but other teams aren't stupid either. Well, most aren't.

 

His work at the end of this year and in the AFL are pretty sufficient proof that he still has his stuff.