Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[macarthur31]

Maybe he'll be too expensive, or perhaps we need to prioritize SP, but can I interest anyone in Teruaki Sato for corner OF?

 

 

 

[Jason Ross]

41 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So I was thinking  of him similar to what Ryan O’Hearn got. 2/$29. Maybe even first year at $14 with a player opt out and a second year at $15M or $1M buyout. O’Hearn wasn’t coming off as good a season as Bauers just had, but his success with the bat was a little longer. Maybe even add a 3rd year option similar to the first one he had. He would be guaranteed $44M but could also opt out after year one or two. 

I think O'Hearn was viewed as a very strong "platoon only" type. He had good numbers against them in 2025, but the Pirates immediately cut that way down and prior to 2025 was entirely unplayable against lefties. So while his 2025 was good against LHP, I don't think teams or the Pirates viewed him as anything but a pretty strict platoon hitter.

Bauers crushed lefties last year to the same tune as he did RHP. He even made more contact against LHP while not losing a lick of power. If teams don't look at him as a platoon hitter he should out-cash O'Hearn by a healthy amount. I would not look at him as a platoon bat, myself.

[Outshined_One]

8 minutes ago, macarthur31 said:

Maybe he'll be too expensive, or perhaps we need to prioritize SP, but can I interest anyone in Teruaki Sato for corner OF?

 

 

 

@Jason Ross threw cold water on this idea a few pages ago.

The under the hood stuff doesn't match up with what the Cubs like.  He comes across like a more aggressive Murakami, and that guy likely would have set the K record if he'd played a full season.

/I still like him, though...

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

I think O'Hearn was viewed as a very strong "platoon only" type. He had good numbers against them in 2025, but the Pirates immediately cut that way down and prior to 2025 was entirely unplayable against lefties. So while his 2025 was good against LHP, I don't think teams or the Pirates viewed him as anything but a pretty strict platoon hitter.

Bauers crushed lefties last year to the same tune as he did RHP. He even made more contact against LHP while not losing a lick of power. If teams don't look at him as a platoon hitter he should out-cash O'Hearn by a healthy amount. I would not look at him as a platoon bat, myself.

So O’Hearn would compare more to Happ, with Happ playing better defense? So does Happ get 2/$37M as a platoon bat who also plays good defense? If Bauers gets into the 4 or 5 year deal at $17M to $20M annual he would be a pass. 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So O’Hearn would compare more to Happ, with Happ playing better defense? So does Happ get 2/$37M as a platoon bat who also plays good defense? If Bauers gets into the 4 or 5 year deal at $17M to $20M annual he would be a pass. 

I think 2026 Ian Happ fits closer to what O'Hearn was, but O'Hearn was always bad against LHP and Ian Happ, while it was never his strong suit, was playable against lefties until this year. I'm not sure teams are going to look at Happ as a strict platoon hitter, and I don't know if Ian Happ, especially, is going to see himself as a strict platoon hitter.

My guess on Bauers is $14-18m over with the term of three to five years. He feels like the type of player a mid-market overpays to get their "big boy bat" at a more discounted rate (DH, lack of track record). His wRC+ was top-7 in baseball. So I think someone will overpay a little to get that especially in his market. It's the kind of contract you see the Cincinnati Reds dole out (again, not a prediction, just more of a style/type). It's not a "nothing" contract (3/$54m is not cheap as an example) but it's probably a bit of an overpay to get him into Cincinnati while other teams balk at the position/track record. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think 2026 Ian Happ fits closer to what O'Hearn was, but O'Hearn was always bad against LHP and Ian Happ, while it was never his strong suit, was playable against lefties until this year. I'm not sure teams are going to look at Happ as a strict platoon hitter, and I don't know if Ian Happ, especially, is going to see himself as a strict platoon hitter.

My guess on Bauers is $14-18m over with the term of three to five years. He feels like the type of player a mid-market overpays to get their "big boy bat" at a more discounted rate (DH, lack of track record). His wRC+ was top-7 in baseball. So I think someone will overpay a little to get that especially in his market. 

Probably true about Bauers. But he is something to keep an eye on. The numbers you have him for are close to what I would expect the Cubs to consider. If he is trending in the low end of your estimate he could be a guy to sign. 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Probably true about Bauers. But he is something to keep an eye on. The numbers you have him for are close to what I would expect the Cubs to consider. If he is trending in the low end of your estimate he could be a guy to sign. 

I would guess the lower number is only there for years. So like 5/$70m. You bring the AAV down with years, something I think Bauers probably does with his track record. I think to grab him short, you're going to have to pump that AAV. Sending him back out to FA in 3 years is probably a tough  sell; 34-year old DH's don't get paid often. So you gotta buy him off it. 

I'm not 100% out on Bauers, under the hood there isn't much to dislike, I'm a bit skeptical on the whiff% but he chases so little he'll recoup that with walks. But that said, I'd need to know the team had $100m to spend before I advocated for it, and I think the Cubs can "throw spagehtti" at two-three veterans at LF/RF/DH and couple with Shaw/Pedro and be mostly fine. One guy you feel pretty good about, maybe someone else who gets DFA'd and needs to rehab their image. They need starting pitching and that's where I think $50-60m+ need to go. If not more. So that's where my aim is.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I would guess the lower number is only there for years. So like 5/$70m. You bring the AAV down with years, something I think Bauers probably does with his track record. I think to grab him short, you're going to have to pump that AAV. Sending him back out to FA in 3 years is probably a tough  sell; 34-year old DH's don't get paid often. So you gotta buy him off it. 

I'm not 100% out on Bauers, under the hood there isn't much to dislike, I'm a bit skeptical on the whiff% but he chases so little he'll recoup that with walks. But that said, I'd need to know the team had $100m to spend before I advocated for it, and I think the Cubs can "throw spagehtti" at two-three veterans at LF/RF/DH and couple with Shaw/Pedro and be mostly fine. One guy you feel pretty good about, maybe someone else who gets DFA'd and needs to rehab their image. They need starting pitching and that's where I think $50-60m+ need to go. If not more. So that's where my aim is.

Absolutely pitching comes first. Wouldn’t mind seeing Peterson signed so they can go bigger on two others. Or maybe trade either Shaw or Ramirez+ for a starter and then go way big for Skubal. Then figure out what you can spend on a bat. The only issue with that is what to do with Happ? They have to decide on a QO or not before then. Which could lessen the money spent on pitching, if Happ takes the QO. 

[mul21]

11 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I would guess the lower number is only there for years. So like 5/$70m. You bring the AAV down with years, something I think Bauers probably does with his track record. I think to grab him short, you're going to have to pump that AAV. Sending him back out to FA in 3 years is probably a tough  sell; 34-year old DH's don't get paid often. So you gotta buy him off it. 

I'm not 100% out on Bauers, under the hood there isn't much to dislike, I'm a bit skeptical on the whiff% but he chases so little he'll recoup that with walks. But that said, I'd need to know the team had $100m to spend before I advocated for it, and I think the Cubs can "throw spagehtti" at two-three veterans at LF/RF/DH and couple with Shaw/Pedro and be mostly fine. One guy you feel pretty good about, maybe someone else who gets DFA'd and needs to rehab their image. They need starting pitching and that's where I think $50-60m+ need to go. If not more. So that's where my aim is.

Are there any huge changes to what he was doing prior to coming to the Brewers that explain the huge jump in productivity?  Like a jump in bat speed or did he just do the Brewers thing and stop swinging at pitches?  It's such a stark difference that I'm leery of the numbers without a data driven explanation.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

20 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Are there any huge changes to what he was doing prior to coming to the Brewers that explain the huge jump in productivity?  Like a jump in bat speed or did he just do the Brewers thing and stop swinging at pitches?  It's such a stark difference that I'm leery of the numbers without a data driven explanation.

The statcast data isn't as dramatically different from last year as you'd think.

[Jason Ross]

25 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Are there any huge changes to what he was doing prior to coming to the Brewers that explain the huge jump in productivity?  Like a jump in bat speed or did he just do the Brewers thing and stop swinging at pitches?  It's such a stark difference that I'm leery of the numbers without a data driven explanation.

There were things Bauers always did well. Good bat speed. Really good EV. Back in 2023, he started to show signs; more barrels, much better xwOBA but significant whiff%. He was striking out 34% of the time; you cannot sustain that. 

When Milwaukee got him they got him to swing with a better LA. Significantly more launch. The last two years have seen huge jumps for him in zone-contact. From under 80% to 87% (last year) and 84% (this year). His chase and o-swing isn't drastically different. 

What Milwaukee did was work heavily on the swing. Mechanically he's just found his swing. He's much more open. He has more air under his swing so when he does make contact (even if it's not a huge amount of contact) it's crushed. It allowed him to get to his really good batted ball data more often. That's not to be taken as like a deep-dive on him step-by-step, but I think this is really a story of "highly touted prospect who had good data but was missing something" and a team who fixed that thing he was missing.

Swing with Yankees

Swing with Brewers

Moving forward, with a new organization he could always backslide into mechanical peril. But I think as long as you are a good organization and have a good understanding of swings and development, you can stay on top of that and keep the swing. 

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, macarthur31 said:

Maybe he'll be too expensive, or perhaps we need to prioritize SP, but can I interest anyone in Teruaki Sato for corner OF?

 

 

 

I have little interest in going beyond 2, mayyybe 3 years on any available bats.  But this is the one guy I'd at least leave the door cracked for.

I suspect he ends up with a team willing to pay for him to stay on the dirt though.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Probably true about Bauers. But he is something to keep an eye on. The numbers you have him for are close to what I would expect the Cubs to consider. If he is trending in the low end of your estimate he could be a guy to sign. 

I'm very weary of Bauers based on 1. lack of track record,  2. career year at age 31, and 3. the Brewers overachiever factor. 

As 1908 said someone will overpay.  Certainly give him more than Hoyer would be willing to pay based on the risk involved.  If he had another full season hitting well on a non-Brewers team then id take a closer look.  I assume the projections next year will show a big drop, probably closer to 2025 rate stats, maybe a little higher.  I don't even know how well he plays defense especially corner OF.

Edited 3 hours ago by Stratos

[cl smooth]

I don’t see a regular general cubs chit chat thread anywhere so I’ll throw this here:

This might be the most stressful Cubs game I’ve ever seen. Physically and mentally exhausted by the end. What a strange horsefeathers game this was.