Braves (Ritchie) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 09/16/26, 6:40 PM

[bukie]

This is probably my biggest frustration with the game thread hive mind, the obsession with the opponent hitting a HR. When...

1) The Cubs hit more HR than anyone and never once faced Cub pitching

2) Being in a pitcher friendly environment neutralizes the biggest advantage the Cubs have on every opponent, the ability to hit for power and score lots of runs.

You seriously would rather hinge the Cubs postseason success in a pitcher friendly environment and hope they can hold on for a few 3-2 or 2-1 wins?

[Rcal10]

51 minutes ago, bukie said:

"Steele is not coming back"
"Webb isn't going to get back on track"
"Thielbar will be the most used righty out of the pen because Counsell"

Meanwhile,
"The Padres are the most dangerous team because of their pen" - Pads have the fewest runs scored of any team in the NL postseason and Walker Buehler is their second best starter, the bullpen is meaningless if they don't get a lead.
"The Phillies top 5 hitters are dangerous lefties, so lefties are the best option regardless of what the statistics say this year" - The Phillies have a terrible offense this season, especially Arraez since he came over in a trade. 

The reality is there are 4 teams a tier above in the NL playoffs, and the Padres and Phillies aren't one of them. Now, if they somehow end up in ATL for the wildcard, that's more concerning, but I don't think they're outmatched by the Braves, and would only be slight underdogs against the Brewers and Dodgers, regardless of the close losses over the last 2 weeks.

I put that into the category of his opinion. And as I said, I think he is very misinformed. But I didn’t see him suggest poor outcomes from the Cubs. As I said, he acknowledged they could win a WS. But I do see how you saw it as negative. I just saw it as misguided and uninformed. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

anyone watching Mets-Phillies? Poor Nolan McClean is getting killed by his defense and then he just concussed his own first baseman. 

[javy knows my name]

1 hour ago, Bill Fogg said:

I only want to post once so here goes : don't even suggest that J. Steele is coming back this year. Quit Overemphasizing WAR, it's the result of a rating but doesn't take into account how it is earned. Let's take a step into reality : 

#1. The Cubs have an excellent defense by any measure.

#2. The Cubs have an above average offense [ let's not get carried away ].

#3. Cubs starting pitching is okay, not great but good enough in the right matchups combined with their offense to win a World Series. 

#4. Please note that I wrote good enough to win a World Series not that they will. There are a lot of factors including luck that the winning team needs.

#5 The Cubs bullpen is their most glaring weakness, the way baseball is played in the playoffs places a heavy emphasis on a quality bullpen. The Padres are the most dangerous team after the Brewers & Dodgers because of their bullpen. 

#6 In the playoffs teams will seldom utilize more than their top 3 starters or top setup men and normal closer. Pitchers #9-13 are basically unimportant when it comes to the playoffs.

#7. Long term statistical analysis shows that left-handed pitching is more effective against left-handed hitting and vice versa with righties. Statistical anomalies for a season or so may occur but in the long run almost all managers go with the long term analysis.

#8. With regards to Reality #7 : The Cubs 5 starting pitchers have not separated themselves very far by performance. The selection of who to start should come down to the matchup of who they play. If it's the Phillies it should be Boyd, Holmes, and Imanaga. The Philly lineup is predominately left handed: Schwarber, Harper, Arraez, Stott, Marsh are their most dangerous hitters. It is probably better to throw a righty in Game #2 in case of a game #3. Using 3 lefty starters in a row could increase the Phillies effectiveness against lefties in Game #3. I selected the above 3 starters because I think that Peterson will probably be better suited in relief than Imanaga. Rolliston will be used frequently and Caleb T.  will probably be used also. Zefferjahn, Palencia, Civale, and Thornton will be the most used right handers. Neither Assad or Rea should be used unless it's a blowout or a starter leaves early.   

#8  Anyone that suggests that Webb can/will get back on track for the playoffs is dreaming.      

Thanks for your ignorant and condescending contribution

 

Who approved Smoltz to start posting here

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

anyone watching Mets-Phillies? Poor Nolan McClean is getting killed by his defense and then he just concussed his own first baseman. 

[mk49]

5 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

anyone watching Mets-Phillies? Poor Nolan McClean is getting killed by his defense and then he just concussed his own first baseman. 

Yeah, watching it.  It's kind of scary.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Just now, mk49 said:

Yeah, watching it.  It's kind of scary.

Very scary. The collision of McClean's leg into Young's head was brutal

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, mk49 said:

Yeah, watching it.  It's kind of scary.

Oh man, former Cubs' farmhand Jared Young. Damn. Hope he's okay. 

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

anyone watching Mets-Phillies? Poor Nolan McClean is getting killed by his defense and then he just concussed his own first baseman. 

Yep. Often when I watch other teams I come away very happy with the Cubs and their defense. 

[Papa Cub]

27 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

anyone watching Mets-Phillies? Poor Nolan McClean is getting killed by his defense and then he just concussed his own first baseman. 

Yeah that was brutal - hopefully Young is good.

Nola is pitching very well lately. He’s taking over for Luzardo. Mets defense is atrocious 

[Papa Cub]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Yep. Often when I watch other teams I come away very happy with the Cubs and their defense. 

Mets definitely are a trainwreck defensively 

[Derwood]

Cubs broke Kyle Harrison

 

Last 4 starts: 9 IP, 21 ER, 27 H, 9 K's, 8 BB

 

Edited 20 hours ago by Derwood

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Derwood said:

Cubs broke Kyle Harrison

His last 22 IP: 8.59 ERA. 

He'd fit right into the Cubs pen.

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, bukie said:

Any specific reason you wouldn't want the team with the most HR in baseball to be in a good spot for hitting HRs?

Well for one we’ve given up more HRs than we’ve hit lol

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

I think worrying about the ballpark the Cubs play in is losing the forest for the trees, here. Opposing players are much more impactful than park factors. Citizen Bank is 3rd for home runs and Petco is 11th for HR's over the last 3 years, To put this in another way of looking at it: Hitters hit the ball 2.9 feet further than average at Citizen's Bank (this year). At Petco it's 6.9 feet below average. I'm not going to really worry much about 10 feet.

Last year? It was 1 foot above average at Citizen's Bank and under four feet less than average at Petco (most year's it's around these levels). So five feet last year. This isn't worth a bother.

I wouldn’t call it worrying, I was asked why I prefer the Phillies less than the others. They’re all around the same level of skill, so little things like ballpark factors make the difference in preference

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I wouldn’t call it worrying, I was asked why I prefer the Phillies less than the others. They’re all around the same level of skill, so little things like ballpark factors make the difference in preference

I hear ya. I just think if that's the reason you prefer one over the other, ultimately, you prefer neither. 

For the record, I also prefer neither. The Cubs are a better team than both, pitching be damned. 

[mk49]

Mets suck.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, bukie said:

This is probably my biggest frustration with the game thread hive mind, the obsession with the opponent hitting a HR. When...

1) The Cubs hit more HR than anyone and never once faced Cub pitching

2) Being in a pitcher friendly environment neutralizes the biggest advantage the Cubs have on every opponent, the ability to hit for power and score lots of runs.

You seriously would rather hinge the Cubs postseason success in a pitcher friendly environment and hope they can hold on for a few 3-2 or 2-1 wins?

Correct,  id rather they be able to hit homeruns because otherwise the offense usually has a hard time generating runs without it, and also it doesn't matter where they play with the the cubs pitching,  they're likely going to give up a long ball as weve seen all season. 

[chibears55]

9 games left, 3 teams separated by 1 game.

No rest for the Cubs if they want that first WC spot, likely come down to final weekend 

Edited 19 hours ago by chibears55

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

9 games left, 3 teams separated by 1 game.

No rest for the Cubs if they want that final WC spot, likely come down to final weekend 

You mean if they want home field. They will make the WC with little issues. 

[chibears55]

21 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

You mean if they want home field. They will make the WC with little issues. 

Lol, I typed first and it put final 😅 

[mk49]

I think if we win 6 out of 9, we'd have a good chance to get the home field.

[Gjfificifjdej]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Correct,  id rather they be able to hit homeruns because otherwise the offense usually has a hard time generating runs without it, and also it doesn't matter where they play with the the cubs pitching,  they're likely going to give up a long ball as weve seen all season. 

Could play at the Polo Grounds and they are gonna give up nukes to dead centre

[soccer10k]

5 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

I want to play in ballparks that suppress HRs.  Petco likely will (though the games might be during the day where it carries better), Wrigley is more likely to have the wind blowing in.  Citizens Bank Park a launching pad usually.  

I would assume the Cubs would be the late game in that scenario. Braves and Yankees will be hosting so they won't be the late game. So if the Padres are hosting, your choices are either Padres-Cubs or Astros/Rangers-Rangers/Orioles/Jays.

[Geographyhater8888]

Interesting that Fangraphs gives the Cubs a 6% world World Series odds. At the 153 game mark last year they were at 3.2%. It checks out for me.

Edited 10 hours ago by Geographyhater8888