Random trade speculation

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think with all the ups and downs Hoffman's had they'd probably take the opportunity to sell him on an up rather than risk holding onto him long enough for the next down.

Bieber's interesting too.  There's nothing obviously wrong with him and we know this team has had a hard on for him for a while.  I *think* his issues are just pitch mix.  If you told me we were going to have a two SP deadline I'd happily take Bieber as the second.

Yeah, maybe I was harsh with Bieber. He had a good start against the White Sox. He finally got a decent amount of whiff. Maybe the first four starts were rust? He's scheduled to start Thursday, so maybe that's why the scouts.

He's just not throwing strikes, so if you told me "it's rust" I could believe it. His zone% is down 10 points from where it's been, If he starts throwing strikes, maybe you get him back to something.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, mk49 said:

Gausman has been pretty bad lately.  I'd be disappointed, if he's the only SP we get.

That said, it sounds pretty realistic.

He's been bad recently but his ERA is hiding a pretty strong season based on xFIP. He's got a 3.88 xERA on the year as well. His velo is fine, so I'd take the most recent few starts as "blip". He's 26th in baseball in fWAR for starters. He'd be a good get.

[mk49]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

He's been bad recently but his ERA is hiding a pretty strong season based on xFIP. He's got a 3.88 xERA on the year as well. His velo is fine, so I'd take the most recent few starts as "blip". He's 26th in baseball in fWAR for starters. He'd be a good get.

His xERA for the last 6 weeks or so is close to 6.00.

If we actually get him, I hope you're right, though.

[Geographyhater8888]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The farm's a lot deeper than it was a year ago.  I think that package for Gausman is probably light but Caple's a grade higher than either guy we gave up for Soroka and Bateman's very comparable to Franklin.

Gausman would be a perfect rental either way. There’ll be multiple bidders so yeah, it definitely sounds light with what limited knowledge I have. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, mk49 said:

His xERA for the last 6 weeks or so is close to 6.00.

If we actually get him, I hope you're right, though.

Right. Like I said recently he's been bad. But Hunter Brown has an xERA over 5.00 in the same span. Brandon Pfaadt has the 10th best xERA in that run. I know which pitcher I'd rather have. 

[profisme]

I feel like Kevin Gausman is just our newest iteration of Brian Roberts.  Seems like he has been the guy people have wanted for the past 6 years or so.

[bukie]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

Right. Like I said recently he's been bad. But Hunter Brown has an xERA over 5.00 in the same span. Brandon Pfaadt has the 10th best xERA in that run. I know which pitcher I'd rather have. 

So you're suggesting that Gausman might be a better option than a Pfaadt in the wind?

[KCCub]

On Gausman, last season he had an 8 game stretch from 5/9-6/19 where he had a 5.28 ERA (4.26 xERA, 4.27 FIP). Rest of season - 17 starts 2.78 ERA 3.44 xERA 3.02 FIP. I know this specifically because I traded for him in a Dyn league after his 6/19 start and totally lucked out how he finished the season. He's currently in a 9 game funk (6.56 ERA, 4.30 xERA), but still holding a solid K rate. If the asking price on Gaus is something close to what Jason provided, he would be a no brainer add for me. Also had a 2.93 postseason era last season in 30 innings. 

[Dfan25]

So what’s your guess about how many moves they will make , considering all the injured guys expected back ?

 

If healthy , these are the locks :

Shota / Boyd / Cabrera / SP trade /  Palencia / Webb / Rollison / Rea / Brown  / RP via trade .

 

Thats 10 spots right there  and they have a group of guys /  Taillon / Peterson / /Thielbar  / Thornton who they have to make decisions on . 
 

Do they add a 2nd reliever considering this ?  I know Thornton had been extremely lucky but do they actually dump him based on that ?  Thielbar was great last year  , and all of the sudden  he can’t stop giving up home runs . 
 

Taillon and Peterson seem like easier calls to me , but it’s always difficult to cut a veteran like him . Do they trade Rea ?

 

I am not counting Steele here , but I guess he could become an option too   , but the reliever routine is so different than there is no guarantee he will be a factor and difficult to predict how effective he will be .

I personally would add 2 relievers and figure it out later . If they have to cut Peterson or Taillon , so be it

 

 

 

[Dfan25]

Yeah I take a chance on. Gausman . The reality is that there is always risk and there is really no slam dunk trade out there other than Skubal ( they aren’t in position to do that .  I would put Ryan behind but the questions about how much actual service time you will get from him , it’s a difficult trade to make 
 

 

[mk49]

6 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

o what’s your guess about how many moves they will make , considering all the injured guys expected back ?

If healthy , these are the locks :

Shota / Boyd / Cabrera / SP trade /  Palencia / Webb / Rollison / Rea / Brown  / RP via trade .

Thats 10 spots right there  and they have a group of guys /  Taillon / Peterson / /Thielbar  / Thornton who they have to make decisions on . 

What about Assad and Civale?  Assad back to Iowa?

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

So what’s your guess about how many moves they will make , considering all the injured guys expected back ?

 

If healthy , these are the locks :

Shota / Boyd / Cabrera / SP trade /  Palencia / Webb / Rollison / Rea / Brown  / RP via trade .

 

Thats 10 spots right there  and they have a group of guys /  Taillon / Peterson / /Thielbar  / Thornton who they have to make decisions on . 
 

Do they add a 2nd reliever considering this ?  I know Thornton had been extremely lucky but do they actually dump him based on that ?  Thielbar was great last year  , and all of the sudden  he can’t stop giving up home runs . 
 

Taillon and Peterson seem like easier calls to me , but it’s always difficult to cut a veteran like him . Do they trade Rea ?

 

I am not counting Steele here , but I guess he could become an option too   , but the reliever routine is so different than there is no guarantee he will be a factor and difficult to predict how effective he will be .

I personally would add 2 relievers and figure it out later . If they have to cut Peterson or Taillon , so be it

 

 

 

My guess would be three players:
1. A SP who the Cubs view as being a "playoff starter". It might not be a "rotation savior" but someone who is an improvement on the Peterson/Rea/Assad/Taillon crowd that you would have no reservations of starting a playoff game
2. A RP who is definitely someone you trust in key moments at the end of the game. It might not be a bonified lockdown "closer" per se, but someone you'd get up in the 8th or 9th inning without hesitation.
3. A second RP who is either optionable or cheap enough that if you leave them off the playoff roster, you don't feel like it was a wasted trade. It's hard to figure out which pitchers will be back and how many will be in the pen when they come back, so this type curbs your bet. 

Honestly, I think the blueprint for the deadline is "2025 but make the SP much better". So you still get a Kittredge and a Rogers, you just make it a tier or so above Mike Sorotka to like Clay Holmes or Casey Mize.

[Dfan25]

Just now, mk49 said:

What about Assad and Civale?  Assad back to Iowa?

Yeah, Civale is not a factor , he will be cut as soon as they have to clear spots . Asad will probably stay in Iowa starting in case of injury ( if not traded )

[mul21]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

My guess would be three players:
1. A SP who the Cubs view as being a "playoff starter". It might not be a "rotation savior" but someone who is an improvement on the Peterson/Rea/Assad/Taillon crowd that you would have no reservations of starting a playoff game
2. A RP who is definitely someone you trust in key moments at the end of the game. It might not be a bonified lockdown "closer" per se, but someone you'd get up in the 8th or 9th inning without hesitation.
3. A second RP who is either optionable or cheap enough that if you leave them off the playoff roster, you don't feel like it was a wasted trade. It's hard to figure out which pitchers will be back and how many will be in the pen when they come back, so this type curbs your bet. 

Honestly, I think the blueprint for the deadline is "2025 but make the SP much better". So you still get a Kittredge and a Rogers, you just make it a tier or so above Mike Sorotka to like Clay Holmes or Casey Mize.

Exactly what I was going to posit.  Playoff starter, back end of the pen guy, and another useable arm that's better than what's currently in the pen but inexpensive to acquire.

[mk49]

17 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

My guess would be three players:
1. A SP who the Cubs view as being a "playoff starter". It might not be a "rotation savior" but someone who is an improvement on the Peterson/Rea/Assad/Taillon crowd that you would have no reservations of starting a playoff game
2. A RP who is definitely someone you trust in key moments at the end of the game. It might not be a bonified lockdown "closer" per se, but someone you'd get up in the 8th or 9th inning without hesitation.
3. A second RP who is either optionable or cheap enough that if you leave them off the playoff roster, you don't feel like it was a wasted trade. It's hard to figure out which pitchers will be back and how many will be in the pen when they come back, so this type curbs your bet. 

Honestly, I think the blueprint for the deadline is "2025 but make the SP much better". So you still get a Kittredge and a Rogers, you just make it a tier or so above Mike Sorotka to like Clay Holmes or Casey Mize.

Agreed, and very realistic.  

[Geographyhater8888]

The bullpen was a strength last year, especially the high leverage guys. 

[mul21]

Based on what Rosenthal is hearing, sounds like the Cubs are a terrible match for Detroit regardless of the level of interest in acquiring him:

Quote

The way they would do it, according to two rival executives briefed on the Tigers’ thinking, is by trading Skubal for a controllable starting pitcher plus quality prospects. The starter would replace Skubal in the rotation, backfilling his innings but almost certainly providing lesser performance.

Among the pitchers who might fit in such a trade:

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

JR Ritchie or AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta Braves

Will Warren or Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

so you're saying the Tigers wouldn't want Javier Assad to backfill Skubal's innings?

[KCCub]

Those are big names being thrown around for Skubal. 
My guess is Skubal lands on one of the Braves/Brewers/Rays. For the Brewers/Rays, he’s a rental, both teams have a ton of interesting prospects, and if this isn’t the year to go for it being small markets, they never will. For the Braves, they have a lot of appealing young arms + pairing with Sale would be a disgusting 1/2 punch in the playoffs. 

[Dfan25]

25 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Based on what Rosenthal is hearing, sounds like the Cubs are a terrible match for Detroit regardless of the level of interest in acquiring him:

 

 

12 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

so you're saying the Tigers wouldn't want Javier Assad to backfill Skubal's innings?

I think those names have more upside than Assad . . The Cubs would probably need to offer really good prospects with Assad . Regardless I don’t think the Cubs are going after Skubal unless they get to like 3 games back of Milwaukee , which seems pretty unlikely 

[chibears55]

15 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Passan says Mason Miller is definitely available

I asked the other day, if the cubs are going to spend their best prospects on one pitcher, would you want them to get a closer in Miller or a SP like Ryan or Skubal ?

[ILMindState]

43 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Based on what Rosenthal is hearing, sounds like the Cubs are a terrible match for Detroit regardless of the level of interest in acquiring him:

 

How do you ignore Wicks? He can start and is a lock down closer. Can any of those other guys do that?

[Jason Ross]

47 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Based on what Rosenthal is hearing, sounds like the Cubs are a terrible match for Detroit regardless of the level of interest in acquiring him:

 

That's a helluva needle to thread. "Hey, teams who presumably need to upgrade at pitcher. What we want back is an MLB ready young pitcher!" 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

I asked the other day, if the cubs are going to spend their best prospects on one pitcher, would you want them to get a closer in Miller or a SP like Ryan or Skubal ?

Miller. But because he has 3 years after this one. If those were my options I would take Miller over Skubal, who is strictly a rental, and Ryan, who only has one year after this one.

[Adipost]

On 7/20/2026 at 4:24 PM, Rcal10 said:

Webb

Wouldn’t Logan Webb be more expensive than Skubal?  He’s signed through 2028.