Freddy Peralta cost

[mk49]

17 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Ideally, that's a fantastic solution to the problem, but he'll be 32 in August and may want a longer term deal than the Cubs are willing to offer.  If they can get him for 2 more years, that would be perfect but I'd be surprised if he takes that deal/someone doesn't offer him 3-4 years.

I don't mind to keep Seiya for 3 more seasons, after this year, but I'm not sure about 4 years.  Seems like he's still improving.  I would take 2 years for Happ, too.  But, not both of them.

The thing is that they seem to be the best OFs available in the next FA.  Aside from Skubal, Shota is also one of the best SPs.  I like to keep Shota for 2 more years, too.  If we lose him, we would have Cabrera, Rea, Assad, Brown, Steele + whoever we get before the TDL or in the winter.  We don't even know how good Steele will be.  If we can get a non-rental TOR guy, that would be the best.

Edited May 8 by mk49

[ILMindState]

Ok Bruce, what is it?

 

 

 

[Rcal10]

33 minutes ago, mul21 said:

If you think this, you clearly haven't been paying attention to the skills the Cubs FO seems to prefer in players, the most obvious being the ability to minimize swing and miss.  I'm not saying Shaw is ticketed for the starting job in RF/LF next season, but to think that Alcantara has the upper hand when one guy is already playing in MLB regularly and the other guy hasn't been up for more than a cup of coffee while on the 40 man roster the last 3 years seems silly.

My thoughts, exactly. 

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

And has a 127 wRC+ in a shade under 300 PAs going back to last ASB

Is the following biased? Yes, of course it is, I would enjoy watching the team more if he wasn't on it, and what else should I be worried about besides my enjoyment.

I don't know where you picked your starting point but I used August 1 as a best guess, and got 253 PAs. In that stretch, he has a .333 wOBA and a .307 xwOBA. The average RF in baseball this year has a .334 wOBA. So, generously, he's a league average bat for the position. Defensively he's grading out a little above average in the outfield (slash overall). For his career he's got a 97 wRC and is outperforming his xwOBA by 5 points. 

Do I think he's an overpay for 2-4 months of Freddy Peralta? Sure, probably, throw in Brooks Raley or Luke Weaver or whatever. I'd probably still lean towards overpackaging the glut of blocked prospects we have. 

The point about Shaw having no position but still being on pace for 500 PAs is valid, and I've become convinced there's plenty of PAs available for that 10th man if he can be versatile. Shaw is plenty valuable at that role. I don't think he's nearly as valuable as Starting Corner Outfielder. 

[chibears55]

44 minutes ago, mul21 said:

If you think this, you clearly haven't been paying attention to the skills the Cubs FO seems to prefer in players, the most obvious being the ability to minimize swing and miss.  I'm not saying Shaw is ticketed for the starting job in RF/LF next season, but to think that Alcantara has the upper hand when one guy is already playing in MLB regularly and the other guy hasn't been up for more than a cup of coffee while on the 40 man roster the last 3 years seems silly.

All im saying is, I dont think Shaw is inked to be an OD outfielder as of now.

And yes, if it between Shaw and Alcantara, I feel Hoyer would prefer Alcantara be that guy right now, obviously his K rate would need to improve, but his power has increased, and he has a good glove.

I think Hoyer would like to keep Shaw as that super sub guy if hes not traded for a SP.

Edited May 8 by chibears55

[chibears55]

12 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

Ok Bruce, what is it?

 

 

 

Lol, Hoyer called him and told him to shut up and take it back 🤣 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Levine's profile pic cracks me up. When I see how he actually looks, he looks sickly. Reminds me of this local law firm, run by 2 white brothers. Their billboards must have headshots from when they were fresh out of college. I saw one of their commercials and they looked at least 30 years older.

[Soul]

12 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Levine's profile pic cracks me up. When I see how he actually looks, he looks sickly. Reminds me of this local law firm, run by 2 white brothers. Their billboards must have headshots from when they were fresh out of college. I saw one of their commercials and they looked at least 30 years older.

It’s usually a shock when people at work see me because my HR profile pic is from like 20 years ago.  I kind of enjoy the WTF face now.  It’s like….the profile pic right?  Yeah.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Is the following biased? Yes, of course it is, I would enjoy watching the team more if he wasn't on it, and what else should I be worried about besides my enjoyment.

I don't know where you picked your starting point but I used August 1 as a best guess, and got 253 PAs. In that stretch, he has a .333 wOBA and a .307 xwOBA. The average RF in baseball this year has a .334 wOBA. So, generously, he's a league average bat for the position. Defensively he's grading out a little above average in the outfield (slash overall). For his career he's got a 97 wRC and is outperforming his xwOBA by 5 points. 

Do I think he's an overpay for 2-4 months of Freddy Peralta? Sure, probably, throw in Brooks Raley or Luke Weaver or whatever. I'd probably still lean towards overpackaging the glut of blocked prospects we have. 

The point about Shaw having no position but still being on pace for 500 PAs is valid, and I've become convinced there's plenty of PAs available for that 10th man if he can be versatile. Shaw is plenty valuable at that role. I don't think he's nearly as valuable as Starting Corner Outfielder. 

I used the ASB, so 7/18.  Since then he's got a .266/.318/.506 line (127 wRC+) in 293 PAs.  It's probably not fully earned, there's some xwOBA shenanigans like you call out (though worth noting the ASB is when he started doing his Isaac Paredes pulled fly ball impression) and he's overindexed against LHP.  But he's also 24 and presumably still improving.  Let's call him, especially by April 1 of next year, a true talent 110 wRC+ and +5 COF defender?  Stylistically different but that's not too far off of Ian Happ.

I'm fine moving Shaw, I think just in the past few days I wrote something on the minor league forum about us being in a pick 2 situation with Shaw/Alcantara/Ramirez and me preferring the latter two.  But assuming he doesn't tank over the next five months I view Shaw as a viable backfill for one of those corner spots heading into next year.

[Bull]

3 hours ago, CubinNY said:

It has little to do with him as a person. He doesn't have a position on the Cubs. If Shaw is too much for Peralta, fine. He's surplus on this team. Find a match with a good "cost-controlled" starting pitcher somewhere. 

I don't see how someone who has watched Berti, Brujan, Wisdom, Workman, Lopez, Cooper, Mastrobouni, Bote, and Madrigal accrue 1000 PAs over the last two years can hold this opinion.

 

*** I left Morel's 90 OPS and Paredes' 82 OPS off this list and calculation because each was at some point a starter (i.e "Plan A").  What I listed was all bench and non-Catchers. And 90% of those AB's will be consumed by Shaw this year.  I stand by including Wisdom who got 31 DH AB's in 2024 because all of Busch PCA and Bellinger were in your top 9 PA guys that year. 

Edited May 8 by Bull

[Outshined_One]

Shaw's the ultimate insurance plan as things currently stand, and I don't see the Cubs trading him unless it's for a big name piece.  I get that he's a bench guy and I'm still ticked off at him for ditching the team in the middle of a playoff race last year, but considering this team's injury luck and the fact that everyone seemingly ran out of gas in the playoffs last season, having a guy like him available to spell everyone else, allow for more flexibility with defensive subs and pinch hitting, and fill in if anyone goes on the IL is extremely valuable at the moment.  It also helps that he provides value both in the field and at the plate.

If you were valuing players in a potential trade, you'd be crazy not to value Shaw over Mo or anyone on the Cubs' farm.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

6 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Shaw's the ultimate insurance plan as things currently stand

Pretty much this. If any of our infielders gets hurt, he gets all or a majority of their ABs and there shouldn't be a catastrophic dropoff in production. LF/RF goes down, he gets all the ABs against lefties. I don't know what happens if Pete went down for a significant amount of time, I would guess Happ would play CF?

[Layoutman]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

All im saying is, I dont think Shaw is inked to be an OD outfielder as of now.

And yes, if it between Shaw and Alcantara, I feel Hoyer would prefer Alcantara be that guy right now, obviously his K rate would need to improve, but his power has increased, and he has a good glove.

I think Hoyer would like to keep Shaw as that super sub guy if hes not traded for a SP.

The "good guys" finish last it seems...they are often forgotten, marginalized, discounted, overlooked... The "solution" to one of the '27 OF issues is already in the organization. What does Jonny freaking Long have to do to get some recognition and hype from the fanbase?

Seriously, Jed put him on the 40-man roster already. All the kid does is hit. He has hit at every stop...has not struggled with level promotions. Deal with the '17 Schwarber level of defense in LF.  Call the kid up! Bet he becomes your best non-catcher RH bat off the bench.

[Stratos]

I wouldn't trade Shaw for a SP rental.  Would be really nice to have a Peralta type but pitchers get hurt frequently as we've seen.  I'm not trading key position player assets for a pitcher unless they're clearly expendable, which Shaw isnt.

I think Hoyer has been very wise to pin most of our money/resources on position players.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Layoutman said:

The "good guys" finish last it seems...they are often forgotten, marginalized, discounted, overlooked... The "solution" to one of the '27 OF issues is already in the organization. What does Jonny freaking Long have to do to get some recognition and hype from the fanbase?

Seriously, Jed put him on the 40-man roster already. All the kid does is hit. He has hit at every stop...has not struggled with level promotions. Deal with the '17 Schwarber level of defense in LF.  Call the kid up! Bet he becomes your best non-catcher RH bat off the bench.

I've been wanting Long to be up since last season, he could definitely be a guy next season or a trade piece.

[Rcal10]

12 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I've been wanting Long to be up since last season, he could definitely be a guy next season or a trade piece.

Yes you have. And you were wrong then and wrong now. I agree he should be given a chance next season, if he isn’t traded.

But last year was too early for him, and now he is better off in Iowa, since there isn’t a place for him on the ML roster. 

[Geographyhater8888]

17 hours ago, chibears55 said:

All im saying is, I dont think Shaw is inked to be an OD outfielder as of now.

And yes, if it between Shaw and Alcantara, I feel Hoyer would prefer Alcantara be that guy right now, obviously his K rate would need to improve, but his power has increased, and he has a good glove.

I think Hoyer would like to keep Shaw as that super sub guy if hes not traded for a SP.

Trading Shaw also makes this team worse in a year with World Series aspirations or at least a lot worse than if you’d trade blocked prospects like Alcantara for example. Trading Shaw is a non starter for me.

Alcantara, Long, and Ramirez or Rojas would make a lot more sense for not only 2026 but beyond with a blocked infield and likely only one corner outfield spot to fill next year if Happ and Suzuki both walk, and I think at least one of them will be a Cub next season.

Edited May 9 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

41 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Yes you have. And you were wrong then and wrong now. I agree he should be given a chance next season, if he isn’t traded.

But last year was too early for him, and now he is better off in Iowa, since there isn’t a place for him on the ML roster. 

Yeah. Long is blocked this year and unless he can learn to play a corner outfield spot he’ll he blocked as a DH too with Mo being the long term solution. Sure they could split time but it he’s involved in a package for Peralta with Alcantara and another piece then you pull the trigger. Trading Shaw makes the team worse than trading blocked prospects if you care about 2026.

Edited May 9 by Geographyhater8888

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Yes you have. And you were wrong then and wrong now. I agree he should be given a chance next season, if he isn’t traded.

But last year was too early for him, and now he is better off in Iowa, since there isn’t a place for him on the ML roster. 

Just because there isnt a place for him, doesn't make me wrong. Guy has over 1300 minor league PA, a .295 average,  and .866 OPS, he's earned an opportunity on a major league roster whether it with the Cubs or elsewhere. 

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Yeah. Long is blocked this year and unless he can learn to play a corner outfield spot he’ll he blocked as a DH too with Mo being the long term solution. Sure they could split time but it he’s involved in a package for Peralta with Alcantara and another piece then you pull the trigger. Trading Shaw makes the team worse than trading blocked prospects if you care about 2026.

He has played left.

He's mainly a 1st basemen which is likely the biggest reason he hasn't been brought up (Busch) and obviously Shaw is blocking him from being that 10th player.

But he has played 1st, 3rd, and LF

As much as id like to see him play for the Cubs, it more likely he'll be a trade piece come July 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Just because there isnt a place for him, doesn't make me wrong. Guy has over 1300 minor league PA, a .295 average,  and .866 OPS, he's earned an opportunity on a major league roster whether it with the Cubs or elsewhere. 

At the beginning of last year, when you were campaigning for Long, he didn’t have 1300 PA. And hadn’t played much in Iowa. That is why you were wrong then. Your wrong now because there isn’t a spot for him. Let him play in Iowa. Hope either someone really likes him so you can deal him, or he is ready to challenge for an outfield spot next year. Not all guys in the minors turn into stars. You tend to pencil minor leaguers into starting spots in the Cubs as if it is no big deal. You are doing it now with Alcantara. Suggesting he is a better option than Shaw for the Cubs next year while he is striking out over 35% of the time in Iowa. Yet you have him as the corner outfielder over Shaw who has put up solid numbers in the majors since the last half of last year. It is more likely both Long and Alcantara fail to become regulars than it is that either of rh does turn into a productive everyday player. 

[chibears55]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

At the beginning of last year, when you were campaigning for Long, he didn’t have 1300 PA. And hadn’t played much in Iowa. That is why you were wrong then. Your wrong now because there isn’t a spot for him. Let him play in Iowa. Hope either someone really likes him so you can deal him, or he is ready to challenge for an outfield spot next year. Not all guys in the minors turn into stars. You tend to pencil minor leaguers into starting spots in the Cubs as if it is no big deal. You are doing it now with Alcantara. Suggesting he is a better option than Shaw for the Cubs next year while he is striking out over 35% of the time in Iowa. Yet you have him as the corner outfielder over Shaw who has put up solid numbers in the majors since the last half of last year. It is more likely both Long and Alcantara fail to become regulars than it is that either of rh does turn into a productive everyday player. 

Ill bet the house, if Alcantara hits 25+ HRs, OPS over 850 and can get his K rate at 30% or under this season, he will be considered for one of the corner spots for the cubs next season.

Shaw hasn't played the OF since Suzuki return,  except the one game he started in CF. Taking nothing away from Shaw, hes been really good, but i believe Hoyer/Counsell likes and probably prefers having him as a super sub over starting in RF everyday. 

You can disagree all you want and that fine, long season,  we'll see how it plays out.

[Rcal10]

15 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Ill bet the house, if Alcantara hits 25+ HRs, OPS over 850 and can get his K rate at 30% or under this season, he will be considered for one of the corner spots for the cubs next season.

Shaw hasn't played the OF since Suzuki return,  except the one game he started in CF. Taking nothing away from Shaw, hes been really good, but i believe Hoyer/Counsell likes and probably prefers having him as a super sub over starting in RF everyday. 

You can disagree all you want and that fine, long season,  we'll see how it plays out.

I agree if Alcantara does that he will be considered as a corner outfielder. Ext year, if not traded. The hard part is him doing what you expect out of him.