Trade deadline target

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, gflore34 said:

I believe the discussions of Skubal or anyone else of his ilk are academic, Hoyer has never paid the costs for such a trade.  And, never will.  Should be talking more Robbie Ray type or perhaps, Logan Webb - an uptick, clearly not in Skubal tier.

What about the Tucker trade?

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I believe the discussions of Skubal or anyone else of his ilk are academic, Hoyer has never paid the costs for such a trade.  And, never will.  Should be talking more Robbie Ray type or perhaps, Logan Webb - an uptick, clearly not in Skubal tier.

Interesting that you think Logan Webb would cost less than Skubal. IMO Webb would cost more prospects because he is signed for several year longer. And, as squally said, he has paid the prospect cost to land a big player when he traded for Tucker. 
BTW, I think someone like Gray or Ray are more likely too. But I don’t think it is a foregone conclusion the Cubs wont aim higher. 

Edited yesterday at 04:25 PM by Rcal10

[mul21]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Interesting that you think Logan Webb would cost less than Skubal. IMO Webb would cost more prospects because he is signed for several year longer. And, as squally said, he has paid the prospect cost to land a big player when he traded for Tucker. 
BTW, I think someone like Gray or Ray are more likely too. But I don’t think it is a foregone conclusion the Cubs wont aim higher. 

I think that's a nuanced thing.  He's given up value for a full season or for a guy with control, but not for a rental and I have a hard time blaming him for that if prices really were what's been reported last year at the deadline.

[gflore34]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Interesting that you think Logan Webb would cost less than Skubal. IMO Webb would cost more prospects because he is signed for several year longer. And, as squally said, he has paid the prospect cost to land a big player when he traded for Tucker. 
BTW, I think someone like Gray or Ray are more likely too. But I don’t think it is a foregone conclusion the Cubs wont aim higher. 

From a stuff prospective Skubal > Webb however, I believe you're correct regarding cost controlled.  Didn't consider this aspect hence, as you suggested, Ray, Gray, etc. are more likely.

[Backtobanks]

If we're looking for a bat and the money could be worked out, Willson Contreras would make sense.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think that's a nuanced thing.  He's given up value for a full season or for a guy with control, but not for a rental and I have a hard time blaming him for that if prices really were what's been reported last year at the deadline.

Yeah but if you introduce enough nuance, pretty much every potential trade is 'a trade he's never done before'. He had never done a Tucker type trade for just one full season....until he did. How many GMs in baseball have traded for 2 months of a reigning Cy Young?

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah I think that's fair in calling the construction unique for a big market team. I think the whole organization was pretty barren 5ish years ago, and you're still seeing some lasting effects from there (the Taillon deal in particular stands out for me. he was never going to be anything more than he was, but we needed innings because we had no internal options and really just needed to spend money somewhere after stripping it down to the bones).

I think Jed needs to take more shots. I think his decisions have been largely proven correct compared to the alternatives (Dansby has been better than Bogaerts and Correa, Turner has put up 15 fWAR to Dansby's 13.5 but Turner is having an awful year and has an extra 4 years, $108m on the books for ages 37-40). But I think he's somewhat maxed out how far he can take this approach if he isn't going to produce studs (a la the big contracts that Julio or Vlad Jr have gotten) from within the organization. Take a couple chances.

If Jed is unwilling to commit to a player like Skubal long term then do something bold and rent him. This the best player he’ll ever have the opportunity to trade for at the deadline and he’s got a leg up with Shaw. I hope anyways. No more half assed efforts. It’s Shaw. You just spent $175 million to replace him. 

Edited yesterday at 05:05 PM by Geographyhater8888

[NorthsideAvenger]

 

Jim Bowden thinks Shaw, Alcantara and Reid would be the cost for Skubal.

 

Edited yesterday at 05:26 PM by NorthsideAvenger

[mul21]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah but if you introduce enough nuance, pretty much every potential trade is 'a trade he's never done before'. He had never done a Tucker type trade for just one full season....until he did. How many GMs in baseball have traded for 2 months of a reigning Cy Young?

I was speaking more in the abstract of giving up A LOT for a rental and not so much with Skubal or any other specific player in mind, but I get what you're saying.  He got Cabrera, who has several years of control and Tucker, who only had one year, but they were either going to re-sign him or at minimum get a pick out of the deal and not walk away completely empty handed.

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

 

Jim Bowden thinks Shaw, Alcantara and Reid would be the cost for Skubal.

 

Jim Bowden was also fired for being a terrible GM who treated his rosters like fantasy baseball and skimmed international bonuses, so yeah.....

[Tryptamine]

So realistically they need 2 SP with one of them being a guy to slot into their top 2. They can't get that done without decimating the farm and this team is not one I'm about to set back the farm 3 or 4 years for.

[NorthsideAvenger]

13 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Jim Bowden was also fired for being a terrible GM who treated his rosters like fantasy baseball and skimmed international bonuses, so yeah.....

I know. I had a laugh. For someone who worked in baseball for decades, he still can't properly value players in trades.

Edited yesterday at 07:04 PM by NorthsideAvenger

[mul21]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

So realistically they need 2 SP with one of them being a guy to slot into their top 2. They can't get that done without decimating the farm and this team is not one I'm about to set back the farm 3 or 4 years for.

Assuming Boyd and Cabrera come back healthy, even if Steele gives them nothing this year 2 SP seems like overkill.  Between Brown, Shota, and Rea, you've got 3 viable guys and then maybe you get some innings from Steele down the stretch as a bonus.  And I agree with you on not gutting the system for this team unless we see some serious positive regression from the offense soon.

[Geographyhater8888]

22 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Getting away from the brewers for a second, this goes back to WS winners have players who are either great going in or have a great year. I agree with this. But it is not productive to look back 10-20 years and then decide who the great players were in that team. And then suggest the Cubs or any team doesn’t have that so they can’t win. Many cases the people being mentioned as great players actually were only great that year or it was his first great year. The Cubs have several players whose name would be on that list if they won the WS. It stands to reason if they won the WS a few guys on this current team would have to have a great year. And there are numerous Cubs who can break out. Which is why looking, after the fact, at all WS teams to argue they won because they have stars current team dont have right now, is pointless. 

Which current Cubs player would you say has the potential to earn a multi year contract on the open market for north of $240 million ($150 million for pitchers) off of peak production under the current CBA in place? PCA if he decided to bet on himself? The Cubs are log jammed with steady Eddy’s so your options are slim. 

Edited 6 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

If only we would have given Dansby another 3-5 years like all the other shortstops got, then we could have avoided this whole weird talking point. 

[chibears55]

Unless things change dramatically with this team from now til the break, id hold off on any thoughts of spending valuable assets to get Skubal for 2 months, and hold onto those assets for other possible moves in offseason.

I'd prefer they wait til offseason and just offer him Imanaga 22mil and Taillon 18 mil that coming off the book, 40 per AAV would put him 2nd behind Ohtani 70 AAV for pitchers.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

The Dodgers will probably just offer him something insane like 2 years 140 million and he'll take it to win a WS and go back on the market

[mk49]

32 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

The Dodgers will probably just offer him something insane like 2 years 140 million and he'll take it to win a WS and go back on the market

I think so, too, but maybe a 3 ~ 4 year deal, kind of like the Tucker contract.  And, obviously, the Cubs won't match it.

[chibears55]

35 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

The Dodgers will probably just offer him something insane like 2 years 140 million and he'll take it to win a WS and go back on the market

All deferred too.. lol