Cubs, Giants Discussing Nico Hoerner Trade

[Rcal10]

I think if Boston is asking for Hoerner or Shaw you ask for Tolle and Abreu. If Boston does that, you let one go. If not, no problem. You go into the season with Hoerner at 2nd and Shaw utility. Keep the ask high because they don’t have to move one. But if Boston does that deal Abreu becomes the right fielder, and has years of control left. Suzuki is the DH and Mo can catch all year at AAA. Could benefit the Cubs moving forward if he proves to be an average defensive catcher. Then in ‘27 they have a right fielder, a pitcher and depending on who Boston takes, they still have a second baseman. Sign either Urias so you have a utility infielder. The question comes in as to who is the last player. Can they afford not to have a guy who can play centerfield on the bench? If Shaw is who Boston picks (though I think it would be Nico) who does play centerfield a day you want to rest PCA, Suzuki? If PCA gets hurt you bring Alcantara up. Or is Kevin the last spot on the bench.? I wouldn’t mind seeing Andujar added if they can go without a true back up centerfielder on the team. 
I know for a true “value” standpoint Shaw is more valuable. But for Boston I think they want a guy who can be very valuable next year. Nico is a much surer option. And, again, if this is too much, don’t trade either. 

[Hot Sauce]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

Honestly, this is what I would prefer. Then sign a utility bat. Sure, they lose Nico’s replacement in ‘27, but they gain a starting pitcher for that year. Works for me. Wish Andujar could play some middle infield. That would be a signing that raises the bench bat too, over Shaw. 

How close or realistic is Triantos as an option for the bench?

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree on Nico. But I can see Shaw traded for equal value in the form of a young starting pitcher. 

But who plays 2b next year?

I can see Nico traded before Shaw.  I think they'd be foolish to trade either.  They have to try to win this year.  Replacing Nico, Happ, and Seiya next year with equal production is very unlikely to happen.  There's no free agent at those positions available in FA next year as good or cheap as those guys and we don't have prospects at those positions as good as them.

They also have to replace Boyd, again good and inexpensive.

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

How close or realistic is Triantos as an option for the bench?

He had a really rough go at Iowa last year.  He's young enough to deserve some level of mulligan, but he currently projects below replacement level for next year.

I don't think you can count on anyone currently at Iowa to be a positive contributor on the infield in 2026.  It's not unreasonable for Triantos, or Pedro Ramirez, but you can't count on it.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Stratos said:

But who plays 2b next year?

I can see Nico traded before Shaw.  I think they'd be foolish to trade either.  They have to try to win this year.  Replacing Nico, Happ, and Seiya next year with equal production is very unlikely to happen.  There's no free agent at those positions available in FA next year as good or cheap as those guys and we don't have prospects at those positions as good as them.

They also have to replace Boyd, again good and inexpensive.

Nico. Sign him. If Shaw beings the Cubs a rookie pitcher similar in upside as Wiggins they may not spend on a pitcher. So sign Nico.

[cubbiebluphi]

On 1/19/2026 at 4:59 PM, squally1313 said:

Just to go back over the details here, he was shot on September 10th. We had a game that day and I'm like 99% sure he was a late scratch and only pinch hit. Busch was incidentally also not starting that day, but we were going against Sale so going to assume that was a baseball decision.

The Cubs had an off day the next day to go from Atlanta back to Chicago. The (biggest air quotes possible) "memorial" wasn't until 9/21, 11 days after he was shot. As we all saw, it was very much a political rally. The Cubs, as mentioned earlier, had a day off after the shooting, and were also off the day after the memorial. The game that Shaw missed, we lost 1-0. 

I don't know man, these are the furthest things from normal people, but I find it really hard to believe that the only option for genuine friends and family to do funeral type things was a parade of Republican politicians speaking at a stadium 11 days after he died. 

I miss Charlie, a great man!

[Gjfificifjdej]

Unless Nico flat outs tells you he’s not re signing you trade Shaw or neither of them. 

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I think if Boston is asking for Hoerner or Shaw you ask for Tolle and Abreu. If Boston does that, you let one go. If not, no problem. You go into the season with Hoerner at 2nd and Shaw utility. Keep the ask high because they don’t have to move one. But if Boston does that deal Abreu becomes the right fielder, and has years of control left. Suzuki is the DH and Mo can catch all year at AAA. Could benefit the Cubs moving forward if he proves to be an average defensive catcher. Then in ‘27 they have a right fielder, a pitcher and depending on who Boston takes, they still have a second baseman. Sign either Urias so you have a utility infielder. The question comes in as to who is the last player. Can they afford not to have a guy who can play centerfield on the bench? If Shaw is who Boston picks (though I think it would be Nico) who does play centerfield a day you want to rest PCA, Suzuki? If PCA gets hurt you bring Alcantara up. Or is Kevin the last spot on the bench.? I wouldn’t mind seeing Andujar added if they can go without a true back up centerfielder on the team. 
I know for a true “value” standpoint Shaw is more valuable. But for Boston I think they want a guy who can be very valuable next year. Nico is a much surer option. And, again, if this is too much, don’t trade either. 

This is the trade I mentioned a while ago.  You won't get Abreu and Tolle for Hoerner, but you might get them for Shaw + Wicks + Brown and I would do that in a minute.  I also mentioned Ramon Urias as a backup.

[Cuzi]

Everyone is fixated on Tolle and Early, but I think I would rather go after Witherspoon. He's not going to help you this year, but his ETA is 2027 and he's got the best rated curveball and cutter in their system. And the fact he's not going to help you this year means you can get more players in the deal whereas if you are looking at Tolle and Early it's probably pretty damn close to just a 1 for 1 swap and I'm not too sure I'm sold on those guys as being sure enough for me to give up a 4 WAR player in a 1 for 1 swap.

I would probably do something like Slaten + Witherspoon + some kind of bat. Their system isn't that deep when it comes to the offensive side of the ball, so it Justin Gonzales too much to ask for? I feel like the Red Sox are already in overpay territory without him, but if the Cubs are saying they want a comparable deal to what they gave up for Tucker, I feel like it has to be Gonzales.

[We Got The Whole 9]

16 minutes ago, cubbiebluphi said:

I miss Charlie, a great man!

Did so much for the disadvantaged white male. A true pillar of non-conformity.

[Development DL]

Some interesting trade conjecture . I still think Shaw and Hoerner give positional strength for 162 , that would be difficult to lose . 

[JunkyardWalrus]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

No

Yeah? Show me those defensive wizards making cash who can’t hit? 

Alonso, Vladdy Jr, hell, even Tucker this season, you think are paid for their gloves? Schwarber? Castellanos? Harper? Kris Bryant? Chris Davis? Devers? Cabrera? Prince Fielder? Pujols? Josh Hamilton?  

This is laughable. 

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Yeah? Show me those defensive wizards making cash who can’t hit? 

Alonso, Vladdy Jr, hell, even Tucker this season, you think are paid for their gloves? Schwarber? Castellanos? Harper? Kris Bryant? Chris Davis? Devers? Cabrera? Prince Fielder? Pujols? Josh Hamilton?  

This is laughable. 

He has posted wRCs of 109, 102, 103, 108 the last 4 years. He's an above average hitter, so where you got that he can't hit I don't know. So yeah a guy with an above average batt, elite defense and well above average baserunning is pretty valuable. 

[cubbiebluphi]

31 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Did so much for the disadvantaged white male. A true pillar of non-conformity.

He was amazing!  Great Christian man!  Someone to aspire to.  

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Yeah? Show me those defensive wizards making cash who can’t hit? 

Alonso, Vladdy Jr, hell, even Tucker this season, you think are paid for their gloves? Schwarber? Castellanos? Harper? Kris Bryant? Chris Davis? Devers? Cabrera? Prince Fielder? Pujols? Josh Hamilton?  

This is laughable. 

Bertz did a great job explaining why this is the case. There is a higher offensive ceiling; but it doesn't mean offense is more important than defense. A run scored is no different than a run saved. They count the same.

There is a reason why Kyle Schwarber, coming off of a much better offensive season than Alex Bregman is making about the same AAV. Bregman's defense makes up the difference. If offense was worth so much more, he'd be making more. 

More importantly, this discussion is not about long term contracts, but one-year value. How a team values a player like Tucker long term versus Hoerner long term is meaningless. An acquiring team in both scenarios is acquiring one year of value.

[mul21]

10 minutes ago, cubbiebluphi said:

He was amazing!  Great Christian man!  Someone to aspire to.  

This might not be the place for you.

[Thurman Merman]

5 minutes ago, mul21 said:

This might not be the place for you.

He's just a troll. Put him on the ignore list.

[Bertz]

30 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Yeah? Show me those defensive wizards making cash who can’t hit? 

Alonso, Vladdy Jr, hell, even Tucker this season, you think are paid for their gloves? Schwarber? Castellanos? Harper? Kris Bryant? Chris Davis? Devers? Cabrera? Prince Fielder? Pujols? Josh Hamilton?  

This is laughable. 

We literally have a guy on our team getting paid big money for his defense.  He plays like 30 feet away from Hoerner.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dansby-swanson-heads-to-the-windy-city/

Quote

ZiPS would have offered Swanson almost exactly the contract he got: $176.2 million over seven years, only $800,000 under his actual deal.

The market paid Swanson exactly what WAR said he was worth, despite his projection topping out at a 106 OPS+.  Nico Hoerner's projection next year?  107 OPS+.

Last winter, the Blue Jays traded for Andres Gimenez.  Gimenez is the one second baseman with an argument for being a better fielder than Hoerner, but he is a much worse hitter.  Projected to a 90 OPS+ going into last year.  Despite being a significantly worse hitter and already being tied to a 9 figure contract, he returned Spencer Horwitz.  Horwitz at this time last year had basically the exact same resume as Michael Busch.

Fans just care about dongs but teams look at total production.

[JunkyardWalrus]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Which is more disingenuous; using adjectives and opinions (such as "slappy hitting") or using a data point that is designed to encompass value? 

The reality is this; fWAR is designed exactly for this discussion. It takes offense, defense, baserunning, positional value and neutralized league data and compiles it into a single value. It takes out opinion of "slappy" and boils it down to a number. It's not a silver bullet, and fractional fWAR is often used in the wrong way but it's also a great way to even the playing field, take personal bias out and see how much value a player generally brings to the field.

The point that I'm making is this: I think many people (and your post is indicative of this) don't understand just how good Nico Hoerner is because they look at his "slappy hitting" and ignore the overall picture. 

On the open market, I don't disagree that teams probably value what Kyle Tucker does in free agency as more valuable. He can transition from RF to 1b to DH and Nico Hoerner probably can't. Hoerner has more value tied to his legs and his glove. But when we're talking a trade for one year of value what Tucker is going to be in four years and what Hoerner will be in four years is immaterial; all that matters is what you're buying in that one year. And the value difference between Hoerner and Tucker in that one year is a lot closer than you're acting.

I’m not arguing how fWAR values them. My argument is how the trade market values them, which I think is much further away than you make it seem. 

As you said, team's value what Tucker does more in free agency, I believe this extends to trade value as well. 

Why shouldn't it?

A career wRC+ of 138 vs 103 is bit of an offensive difference, and I don’t know that Nico’s glove is making that up. (I’d be tempted to bet the under for Nico’s next contract total eclipsing Tucker’s single year, but I digress.)

I’d be outright flabbergasted were Jed to finagle a top 10 positional starting player with 3 years of service time, a team’s last year’s 1st round pick (#58 overall prospect) and a reclamation relief project with a wicked slider for a single year of Nico. 

Should they ask for that? Sure! Why not?

But, if this is the bar for a single year of Nico, I fear plenty will be disappointed in the return, but how I’d love to be proved wrong. 

Quote

 

@Bertz(Sorry, I wasn’t sure how else to do multiple quotes)  

 

We literally have a guy on our team getting paid big money for his defense.  He plays like 30 feet away from Hoerner.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dansby-swanson-heads-to-the-windy-city/

The market paid Swanson exactly what WAR said he was worth, despite his projection topping out at a 106 OPS+.  Nico Hoerner's projection next year?  107 OPS+.

Last winter, the Blue Jays traded for Andres Gimenez.  Gimenez is the one second baseman with an argument for being a better fielder than Hoerner, but he is a much worse hitter.  Projected to a 90 OPS+ going into last year.  Despite being a significantly worse hitter and already being tied to a 9 figure contract, he returned Spencer Horwitz.  Horwitz at this time last year had basically the exact same resume as Michael Busch.

Fans just care about dongs but teams look at total production.

 

Horwitz? The guy who was rated as the 22nd best prospect in the Blue Jay's system in ’24, the #9 1b prospect in MLB? I’ll disagree he's the same as Busch who was a top-50 prospect in baseball (#44) when traded. 

And I believe the original argument was about Nico being equal to Tucker in trade value, which I still believe is crazy, and you’ve kinda made my point.

With some loose math on your player evaluations, and with some doubts benefitted, I belive you’re saying Michael Busch, 26 when traded, would be worth Cam Smith, 3 years of a top 10 MLB 3b in Pareides and the dream of Wesneski’s slider?

I don’t agree with that math.

Further, Swanson’s 7/177 doesn’t touch a single contract I mentioned, and is nearly less than half of some. Schwarber 5/162 is making more per season and doesn’t not even take the field. 

Didn’t Dansby also sign the least significant deal in his FA class? Of the 4 SS available that offseason, Dansby, the defensive guy, signed for significantly less than his peers: Turner, Boegarts and Correa? (I’m not arguing how they turned out so far, nor anything else, just stating how they were valued on the open market, all together.)

My argument isn’t that defense isn’t valuable, nor that I don’t value the D. Nor that players aren’t paid for their defense, base running, leadership etc. 

I just believe the market has, and will continue to value bats more than gloves, not that gloves are worthless.

How many defensive players have signed a contract for more than $200? Aside from Dansby, how many over 150? (Maybe Heyward fits this, but nevermind him.)

Now, tell me how many bats have signed contracts for more than $200? $300? and more? 

(How many by AJ Preller alone?)

I just don’t see how Nico commands near the same return as Tucker, but I’ve been wrong before. 

[Bertz]

22 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

I’m not arguing how fWAR values them. My argument is how the trade market values them, which I think is much further away than you make it seem. 

As you said, team's value what Tucker does more in free agency, I believe this extends to trade value as well. 

Why shouldn't it?

A career wRC+ of 138 vs 103 is bit of an offensive difference, and I don’t know that Nico’s glove is making that up. (I’d be tempted to bet the under for Nico’s next contract total eclipsing Tucker’s single year, but I digress.)

I’d be outright flabbergasted were Jed to finagle a top 10 positional starting player with 3 years of service time, a team’s last year’s 1st round pick (#58 overall prospect) and a reclamation relief project with a wicked slider for a single year of Nico. 

Should they ask for that? Sure! Why not?

But, if this is the bar for a single year of Nico, I fear plenty will be disappointed in the return, but how I’d love to be proved wrong. 

Horwitz? The guy who was rated as the 22nd best prospect in the Blue Jay's system in ’24, the #9 1b prospect in MLB? I’ll disagree he's the same as Busch who was a top-50 prospect in baseball (#44) when traded. 

And I believe the original argument was about Nico being equal to Tucker in trade value, which I still believe is crazy, and you’ve kinda made my point.

With some loose math on your player evaluations, and with some doubts benefitted, I belive you’re saying Michael Busch, 26 when traded, would be worth Cam Smith, 3 years of a top 10 MLB 3b in Pareides and the dream of Wesneski’s slider?

I don’t agree with that math.

Further, Swanson’s 7/177 doesn’t touch a single contract I mentioned, and is nearly less than half of some. Schwarber 5/162 is making more per season and doesn’t not even take the field. 

Didn’t Dansby also sign the least significant deal in his FA class? Of the 4 SS available that offseason, Dansby, the defensive guy, signed for significantly less than his peers: Turner, Boegarts and Correa? (I’m not arguing how they turned out so far, nor anything else, just stating how they were valued on the open market, all together.)

My argument isn’t that defense isn’t valuable, nor that I don’t value the D. Nor that players aren’t paid for their defense, base running, leadership etc. 

I just believe the market has, and will continue to value bats more than gloves, not that gloves are worthless.

How many defensive players have signed a contract for more than $200? Aside from Dansby, how many over 150? (Maybe Heyward fits this, but nevermind him.)

Now, tell me how many bats have signed contracts for more than $200? $300? and more? 

(How many by AJ Preller alone?)

I just don’t see how Nico commands near the same return as Tucker, but I’ve been wrong before. 

You are repeatedly conflating better players being paid more money with teams valuing offense more highly than defense on a 1:1 basis.

[Jason Ross]

42 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

I’m not arguing how fWAR values them. My argument is how the trade market values them, which I think is much further away than you make it seem. 

As you said, team's value what Tucker does more in free agency, I believe this extends to trade value as well. 

Why shouldn't it?

A career wRC+ of 138 vs 103 is bit of an offensive difference, and I don’t know that Nico’s glove is making that up. (I’d be tempted to bet the under for Nico’s next contract total eclipsing Tucker’s single year, but I digress.)

I’d be outright flabbergasted were Jed to finagle a top 10 positional starting player with 3 years of service time, a team’s last year’s 1st round pick (#58 overall prospect) and a reclamation relief project with a wicked slider for a single year of Nico. 

Should they ask for that? Sure! Why not?

But, if this is the bar for a single year of Nico, I fear plenty will be disappointed in the return, but how I’d love to be proved wrong. 

Horwitz? The guy who was rated as the 22nd best prospect in the Blue Jay's system in ’24, the #9 1b prospect in MLB? I’ll disagree he's the same as Busch who was a top-50 prospect in baseball (#44) when traded. 

And I believe the original argument was about Nico being equal to Tucker in trade value, which I still believe is crazy, and you’ve kinda made my point.

With some loose math on your player evaluations, and with some doubts benefitted, I belive you’re saying Michael Busch, 26 when traded, would be worth Cam Smith, 3 years of a top 10 MLB 3b in Pareides and the dream of Wesneski’s slider?

I don’t agree with that math.

Further, Swanson’s 7/177 doesn’t touch a single contract I mentioned, and is nearly less than half of some. Schwarber 5/162 is making more per season and doesn’t not even take the field. 

Didn’t Dansby also sign the least significant deal in his FA class? Of the 4 SS available that offseason, Dansby, the defensive guy, signed for significantly less than his peers: Turner, Boegarts and Correa? (I’m not arguing how they turned out so far, nor anything else, just stating how they were valued on the open market, all together.)

My argument isn’t that defense isn’t valuable, nor that I don’t value the D. Nor that players aren’t paid for their defense, base running, leadership etc. 

I just believe the market has, and will continue to value bats more than gloves, not that gloves are worthless.

How many defensive players have signed a contract for more than $200? Aside from Dansby, how many over 150? (Maybe Heyward fits this, but nevermind him.)

Now, tell me how many bats have signed contracts for more than $200? $300? and more? 

(How many by AJ Preller alone?)

I just don’t see how Nico commands near the same return as Tucker, but I’ve been wrong before. 

You said it was insane to expect the kind of return Tucker has, and yet on the field, the two players have shockingly similar value upon it. Trade value for one year of each should, then, be mostly the same. The Cubs have no reason to take anything less. Which is why what will happen is the Cubs almost assuredly won't trade him, making your argument about the return, moot. If the Cubs viewed it as the way you did, they'd treat him the way you are. And yet...

Clearly the Cubs value defense here. That might tell us something about own own personal biases on how we view offense and defense. 

MLB teams are run on analytics, not vibes. They run on models that are proprietary but they're likely models that don't don't drastically differ from fWAR either. If we can see that the gap between Tucker and Hoerner is roughly half a win over the course of that one season, MLB teams can too. And that half of win isn't drastically going to change a trade return. 

[BigbadB]

I don't think Hoerner in the final year of his deal is worth equal to what Tucker cost for his one year. But, I do believe that's what the Cubs should be asking for. Maybe more. If teams don't like it, they certainly don't have to make a deal. 

 

[Geographyhater8888]

If they trade Nico we’ll be satisfied with the return, as much as trading him would suck. It won’t be anywhere near an equal value return.

Edited January 23 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

49 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

If they trade Nico we’ll be with the return, as much as trading him would suck. It won’t be anywhere near what an equal value return.

Not sure what you are saying? We’ll be happy with the return because it will be an overpay, or we’ll be angry because they didn’t get enough?

I don’t think he will be traded because I think the Cubs will ask too much. And I am fine with that.

[Geographyhater8888]

29 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Not sure what you are saying? We’ll be happy with the return because it will be an overpay, or we’ll be angry because they didn’t get enough?

I don’t think he will be traded because I think the Cubs will ask too much. And I am fine with that.

Overpay. The Redsox will overpay with if what I’m reading is true.