Tatsuya Imai to the Astros

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I feel like the aging curve is going to wreck everyone on that list come 2027/2028, save for Nico and maaaaybe Happ.

It sucks we lost out on Imai, but it makes sense the Cubs didn't match it with those opt outs. They don't need another hole in their rotation going into 2027.

Absolutely. From an Astros standpoint this is a terrible contract. They have to pay the posting fee on the entire contract and have almost no upside - they either assume the entire deal if Imai is bad and if he's great, he's gone in a year. 

It's money and MLB orgs shouldn't care, but just logistically speaking, it's a bad contract from these aspects. 

[thawv]

31 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Actually you said 4/$64. His bonuses are strictly innings pitched. $1M for 80/90/100 innings. So if he pitched well he will make $21M next year, not $16M And he can opt out after the first year., which means he doesn’t have to take 3/$48 the next 3 years. I do not believe you said anything about that in your 4 year proposal. This is much better than what you suggested. If he is good he is in Houston 1 year. To me, that is huge for him and a deal breaker on any Cub offer. 

You're splitting hairs.  I thought 16 mil for 4 years, and he signed 18 mil for 3 years with options.  No way in the world do I have the capabilities to predict a contract, just like you and everybody else on this page. 

 

I think the options made Jed run, or this was his only offer?

Edited January 1 by thawv

[abuck1220]

47 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The team is currently losing:
Nico Hoerner (2b), Seiya Suzuki (RF/DH), Ian Happ (LF), Jameson Taillon (SP), Matthew Boyd (SP), Carson Kelly (C) and much of their BP. 

How many more starting players do you think the team can replace in a single offseason?

lol what? sorry we can’t sign a guy to a one year deal/deal with an opt out, as that would leave us with too many expiring contracts after next year so instead we’ll sign nobody.*
 

*I realize they could still sign/trade for somebody but they’re running out of options. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

Has there been any discussion of opt outs being a topic of consideration for the upcoming CBA negotiations?  Some sort of limitation on when/how many opt outs can be included in a contract?

[ILMindState]

5 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Absolutely. From an Astros standpoint this is a terrible contract. They have to pay the posting fee on the entire contract and have almost no upside - they either assume the entire deal if Imai is bad and if he's great, he's gone in a year. 

It's money and MLB orgs shouldn't care, but just logistically speaking, it's a bad contract from these aspects. 

Yeah there's no way in hell PTR is paying a posting fee for 1 year. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, abuck1220 said:

lol what? sorry we can’t sign a guy to a one year deal/deal with an opt out, as that would leave us with too many expiring contracts after next year so instead we’ll sign nobody.*
 

*I realize they could still sign/trade for somebody but they’re running out of options. 

How many good players at each position do you think are available every offseason? How often does a team replace 3/5ths of it's rotation while also signing 3+ new position player starters? 

At some point it's video game fantasy to think a team can lose 6-8 starting players and bring in replacements for all of them. Which doesn't begin to account for the Cubs and their spending habits. If it were the Dodgers and you'd expect the Cubs to spend like sailors? Sure! But they're going to Cub and it's just not realistic.

They need some sort of a floor for 2027. 

[Bertz]

Man it was clear the pricetag was coming down the last few days but wow that's quite a haircut.  Considering the lack of a QO the industry clearly sees him a tier behind King, and probably Gallen.

[thawv]

17 minutes ago, Derwood said:

I can. This group of starters got us 90+ wins, so Jed doesn't see upgrading as a priority

Then he lied when he said that SP was his top priority.  And yes, I know that there's still time. 

[Bertz]

5 minutes ago, abuck1220 said:

lol what? sorry we can’t sign a guy to a one year deal/deal with an opt out, as that would leave us with too many expiring contracts after next year so instead we’ll sign nobody.*
 

*I realize they could still sign/trade for somebody but they’re running out of options. 

Not really?  

[thawv]

5 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

How many good players at each position do you think are available every offseason? How often does a team replace 3/5ths of it's rotation while also signing 3+ new position player starters? 

At some point it's video game fantasy to think a team can lose 6-8 starting players and bring in replacements for all of them. Which doesn't begin to account for the Cubs and their spending habits. If it were the Dodgers and you'd expect the Cubs to spend like sailors? Sure! But they're going to Cub and it's just not realistic.

They need some sort of a floor for 2027. 

And looking at the 2027 FA crop, Happ is the best LF'er, Suzuki is the best RF'er, and Nico is the best 2B on the market.  So what do they do???

[WhyCantWeWin]

Not going to bother watching this year

[Hortonhearsawho]

5 minutes ago, thawv said:

And looking at the 2027 FA crop, Happ is the best LF'er, Suzuki is the best RF'er, and Nico is the best 2B on the market.  So what do they do???

Give them all 1 year opt outs and repeat the process all over again the next year. 😂

[BKHoo]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

This is an insane contract structure - the Cubs couldn't match it and I don't blame them. Much like Michael King - an opt out next year has to be a non-starter.

Why?

[CubinNY]

lol right on cue

Edited January 1 by CubinNY

[Irrelevant Dude]

5 minutes ago, thawv said:

And looking at the 2027 FA crop, Happ is the best LF'er, Suzuki is the best RF'er, and Nico is the best 2B on the market.  So what do they do???

Extend Nico, hope one of the in-house options fills LF or RF, then sign someone to fill the remaining corner OF spot.

[Geographyhater8888]

30 minutes ago, Hortonhearsawho said:

Okamoto is probably going to want an opt out after year 1 year as well so you can just cross him off the list.

So just one year contracts, pre arb young guys and Dansby Swanson are permissible?

[Jason Ross]

Just now, BKHoo said:

Why?

As stated elsewhere the Cubs already slated to lose their starters at C, 2b, RF/DH, LF, 3 SP's (Boyd, Shota, Taillon) and a lot of their BP. They probably don't want to add "another SP" to the mix.

[Hortonhearsawho]

1 minute ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

So just one year contracts, pre arb young guys and Dansby Swanson are permissible?

Apparently 

[Illiterate Scholar]

I'm picturing the 2026 game threads if the Cubs had managed to sign Imai and he put up numbers similar to the STEAMER projections 

[chibears55]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

And looking at the 2027 FA crop, Happ is the best LF'er, Suzuki is the best RF'er, and Nico is the best 2B on the market.  So what do they do???

Another rebuild 🤷

Theyll have Caissie, Ballesteros, Rojas, Alcantara, Pedro Ramirez, Hernandez, along with Amaya, Busch, Shaw, and PCA.

Plus whomever they could bring in by trading expiring contracts at the deadline. 

I wouldn't put anything pass Ricketts/Hoyer at this point but yea this is setting up to be another breakdown in 2026 then rebuild it again in 2027.

[ILMindState]

Copy and paste for the next guy we miss on

 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, ILMindState said:

Copy and paste for the next guy we miss on

 

I'm still bummed we didn't get Imai. The contract for Houston sucks in many ways, but I think he's a good one. If he is, at leas the org will get another shot at him next year, but it'll be far pricier. This was a good chance to get in on the ground floor. 

[Rcal10]

25 minutes ago, thawv said:

You're splitting hairs.  I thought 16 mil for 4 years, and he signed 18 mil for 3 years with options.  No way in the world do I have the capabilities to predict a contract, just like you and everybody else on this page. 

 

I think the options made Jed run, or this was his only offer?

Not really. The deal he got is much better than what you suggested. Way more player friendly. He isn’t locked into $64M over 4 years. It is only close if he sucks. And I don’t blame Jed for not agreeing to an opt out after 1 year. 

[Hortonhearsawho]

2 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

Copy and paste for the next guy we miss on

 

We will definitely be seeing that when we miss out on Bregman again. 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

I'm picturing the 2026 game threads if the Cubs had managed to sign Imai and he put up numbers similar to the STEAMER projections 

ZiPS also didn't love him.  I'm really curious if his market cratering is because the projections are so soft or because the private side pitch design guys are just that much more bearish on him than the public ones.

The other thing that's weird to me is if his market is *this* bad why the hell is it holding everything else up?  Was Boras flat unwilling to move on anyone else until Imai/Okamoto got settled?