Tatsuya Imai to the Astros

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think the Cubs can offer opt outs. I don't think they can realistically offer opt outs in 2027 to their best player they acquire in 2026. 

Dylan Cease didn't get opt outs. Nor did Schwarber, or Alonso. Or Diaz.  Other players won't get them, too.

Not being able to offer opt outs in 2027 and also consistently needing to save room to annually rebuild the bullpen are problems, not features.

I know we’ll sign gallen and get an article about how actually he’s perfect for the coaches but come on. You can do that and also sign the good players. 

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Edited January 1 by squally1313

[Stratos]

18 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

So anyways, can we talk about the disaster offseason potential situation yet, or are we still doing the guy in a hot dog costume about all the expiring contracts next year thing to justify why this is fine 

At the end of the day the Cubs lost out on a pitcher the market evaluated at 3/63 with opt-outs. Not a huge deal.

It's another offseason waiting around on Scott Boras games.  No reason to panic, same when we held out for Bellinger.  There's still several very good FA from different positions on the table plus the ability to trade for a SP too.  Not Hoyers first rodeo.

 

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Not really. The deal he got is much better than what you suggested. Way more player friendly. He isn’t locked into $64M over 4 years. It is only close if he sucks. And I don’t blame Jed for not agreeing to an opt out after 1 year. 

I thought 16 aav, and he got 18 aav.  Not too bad!!!!  The options are something we can never guess

[abuck1220]

29 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

When did I say any of that? I never said the Cubs should win fewer games or sign lesser players. 

I like Tatsuya Imai, but based on reports and the contract he got, teams didn't go ape-horsefeathers for him so something is off here. Maybe team's evaluations are off. Maybe I'm off. But it isn't like Tatsuya Imai is the only good player the Cubs can get. I think not offering more money/years to Imai will be something the Cubs wish they had done, but it's also not a forgone conclusion, either. And they can still have a perfectly good offseason even if they didn't get my personal pet-project.

If the Cubs, say, sign Alex Bregman and trade for Edward Cabrera, they'd both be winning baseball games and not adding to the roster cliff. 

So let's avoid putting words in my mouth. And let's avoid making a mountain out of molehill right now too, on Imai. Imai might be very good; the Cubs have many ways to skin a cat, and not going with an opt-out deal in 2027 is probably a good thing regardless.

There are plenty of options remaining. I'll panic in March that the Cubs aren't trying to win baseball games.

I agree the cubs would probably be better off trading prospect capital for cabrera than signing imai to a possible one year deal, and they still have time, but I have my doubts they’re gonna do that. 

[Stratos]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Not being able to offer opt outs in 2027 and also consistently needing to save room to annually rebuild the bullpen are problems, not features.

I know we’ll sign gallen and get an article about how actually he’s perfect for the coaches but come on. You can do that and also sign the good players. 

Losing Shota, Taillon, Boyd, Rea next offseason plus potentially Imai plus Nico/Happ/Seiya/Kelly would be insane. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, squally1313 said:

Not being able to offer opt outs in 2027 and also consistently needing to save room to annually rebuild the bullpen are problems, not features.

I know we’ll sign gallen and get an article about how actually he’s perfect for the coaches but come on. You can do that and also sign the good players. 

Any discussion about financials and the way the Cubs behave are difficult because there's two aspects of it, ownership (which isn't budgeing and wont be on how they function) and front office. I agree the Cubs should also sign the good players, but as I talked with someone else the other day, I don't think the Chicago Cubs and this board always agree with "who the good players are". 

When I said I threw a fit about Boyd and Rea, I did so because I didn't think they were the good players. And listen, let's not make Collin Rea into what he isn't, he's not a star, but he was much better than I expected. And Boyd, I should have seen more what the Cubs saw. 

None of this is to say the Cubs are immune to being wrong either. You pointed out they walked into last year with unused funds - they missed there. I've been very consistent in saying I think Hoyer leaves the team a player short at almost every bend. 

Long story short, I just want to wait this one out a bit before I get my feelings out. So give me some time, and if I feel like I need to jump on the anger ship, I will. But even now, I can say that I wish the Cubs would have signed Imai, I think they'll wish they did, but there's no guarantee I'm right on Imai, either and there's a lot of offseason to go, and lots of options for the Cubs to still go after.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

I thought 16 aav, and he got 18 aav.  Not too bad!!!!  The options are something we can never guess

If that is your take on his actual deal compared to what you suggested, fine. Your right. You were very close. We just have to not pay any attention to the actual structure of the deal and then your guess was so, so close. 

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, thawv said:

I thought 16 aav, and he got 18 aav.  Not too bad!!!!  The options are something we can never guess

Well...ish. He got $18m with escalators to $21m. We don't know what those are yet.

[Stratos]

25 minutes ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

I’m sure we will soon read that the Cubs now plan to be patient and wait out the market. 

Boras is the most annoying human being in MLB history.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Any discussion about financials and the way the Cubs behave are difficult because there's two aspects of it, ownership (which isn't budgeing and wont be on how they function) and front office. I agree the Cubs should also sign the good players, but as I talked with someone else the other day, I don't think the Chicago Cubs and this board always agree with "who the good players are". 

When I said I threw a fit about Boyd and Rea, I did so because I didn't think they were the good players. And listen, let's not make Collin Rea into what he isn't, he's not a star, but he was much better than I expected. And Boyd, I should have seen more what the Cubs saw. 

None of this is to say the Cubs are immune to being wrong either. You pointed out they walked into last year with unused funds - they missed there. I've been very consistent in saying I think Hoyer leaves the team a player short at almost every bend. 

Long story short, I just want to wait this one out a bit before I get my feelings out. So give me some time, and if I feel like I need to jump on the anger ship, I will. But even now, I can say that I wish the Cubs would have signed Imai, I think they'll wish they did, but there's no guarantee I'm right on Imai, either and there's a lot of offseason to go, and lots of options for the Cubs to still go after.

I wanted Imai too. But not if he can opt out after one year. That is a deal breaker to me and apparently the Cubs FO. I am fine with that. But now they need to do something else. There is time and players there. So let’s go!!!!!

[thawv]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If that is your take on his actual deal compared to what you suggested, fine. Your right. You were very close. We just have to not pay any attention to the actual structure of the deal and then your guess was so, so close. 

I don't have any kind of ability to figure out the "structure" of a contract.  Just like nobody on this page that's not an agent or a GM.  The most we can do is to guess years, AAV or both.  That's it. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Well...ish. He got $18m with escalators to $21m. We don't know what those are yet.

I read he gets $1M if he gets to 80 innings, another $1M at 90 and another at 100. Has that been reported incorrectly? Thr issue is the structure. Not the money, IMO.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

I read he gets $1M if he gets to 80 innings, another $1M at 90 and another at 100. Has that been reported incorrectly? Thr issue is the structure. Not the money, IMO.

I could have missed that. If that's the escalation, then he's going to get to $21m AAV if he's healthy.

[thawv]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Well...ish. He got $18m with escalators to $21m. We don't know what those are yet.

Innings at 80, 90, and 100.  I don't know if it's 1 million at 80 innings, 1 million at 90 innings, and 1 million at 100 innings. 

[thawv]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

I could have missed that. If that's the escalation, then he's going to get to $21m AAV if he's healthy.

Yes he is.  Barring injury, he can reach these innings standing on his head. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, thawv said:

Innings at 80, 90, and 100.  I don't know if it's 1 million at 80 innings, 1 million at 90 innings, and 1 million at 100 innings. 

Then his AAV is going to be $21m AAV as long as he's healthy and not terrible. 

[Stratos]

15 minutes ago, thawv said:

I thought 16 aav, and he got 18 aav.  Not too bad!!!!  The options are something we can never guess

Why are you freaking out over losing out on a guy you saw as a 16m AAV pitcher?

This deal might even make him about as good as Gallen in the eyes of MLB FO's.

[thawv]

Just now, Stratos said:

Why are you freaking out over losing out on a guy you saw as a 16m AAV pitcher?

This deal might even make him about as good as Gallen in the eyes of MLB FO's.

did you tag the wrong guy???  I'm not freaking out at all.  I'm talking about what I predicted his contract was going to be.  Wrong guy pal. 

[Stratos]

Just now, thawv said:

did you tag the wrong guy???  I'm not freaking out at all.  I'm talking about what I predicted his contract was going to be.  Wrong guy pal. 

I got u mixed up with squally.  I apologize

[DrCub]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I could have missed that. If that's the escalation, then he's going to get to $21m AAV if he's healthy.

So if he’s good, then the Astros basically windup paying 1/$51M for him?  
 

Imagine if we had a cheapskate owner who hated spending  money…..that kind of deal would really scare him off from ever spending again.  

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, thawv said:

Yes he is.  Barring injury, he can reach these innings standing on his head. 

So then $21M a year isn’t close to $16M a year. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, DrCub said:

So if he’s good, then the Astros basically windup paying 1/$51M for him?  
 

Imagine if we had a cheapskate owner who hated spending  money…..that kind of deal would really scare him off from ever spending again.  

Is his posting fee $30M? 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Then his AAV is going to be $21m AAV as long as he's healthy and not terrible. 

Or for 1 year and he opts out. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, DrCub said:

So if he’s good, then the Astros basically windup paying 1/$51M for him?  
 

Imagine if we had a cheapskate owner who hated spending  money…..that kind of deal would really scare him off from ever spending again.  

To preface this; the Cubs ownership sucks and I'm not defending any billionaire's spending practices, but the Astros will be on the hook for more than that.

First, the Astros have to pay the posting fee on the entire contract, even if he opts out. So they'll first pay 20% of the total contract. Then if he's good, he'll opt-out. It'll be a pretty massive one-year contract if Imai is good when you take that into account.

Again, every team should be able to afford that, but in terms of just the money, it'll likely be closer to $30m on a one year deal in terms of money paid out if Imai is good.