Tatsuya Imai to the Astros

[thawv]

7 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I got u mixed up with squally.  I apologize

No sweat.  Happy New Year!

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Hortonhearsawho said:

Okamoto is probably going to want an opt out after year 1 year as well so you can just cross him off the list.

I bet Tucker gets some oot outs.  Womp womp

[thawv]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So then $21M a year isn’t close to $16M a year. 

Not if he reaches his innings it's not.  But like I said, I don't have the ability to figure out the actual structure of a baseball contract.  But the guaranteed money was pretty close.  I don't know when a player gets escalators.  I'm just not that smart. 

 

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I dont think the roster cliff is as bad as its made out to be. You extend Nico this year, possibly Kelly too, sign Gallen, let Caissie get acclimated for 2027,  suddenly you're looking at 1 or 2 holes to fill. They clearly have the money to do this.

 

Im high on our potential to get high-level production out of Gallen as well. I would be quite happy to add him to the rotation. 

Extending Nico and possibly Kelly costs $$$.  Hope Gallen signs and performs, hope Cassie can match either Happ or Suzuki, and then fill at least two holes with 2027 inflated contracts.  Does that sound like a solid plan for a major market team?

[Rcal10]

Just now, Stratos said:

I bet Tucker gets some oot outs.  Womp womp

I think you could be right. But if it starts in year 3, fine. It is after one year that is crazy. 

[thawv]

19 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

To preface this; the Cubs ownership sucks and I'm not defending any billionaire's spending practices, but the Astros will be on the hook for more than that.

First, the Astros have to pay the posting fee on the entire contract, even if he opts out. So they'll first pay 20% of the total contract. Then if he's good, he'll opt-out. It'll be a pretty massive one-year contract if Imai is good when you take that into account.

Again, every team should be able to afford that, but in terms of just the money, it'll likely be closer to $30m on a one year deal in terms of money paid out if Imai is good.

Yep!  His posting fee is about 10 million dollars.  So like you said, with his innings escalator, he's basically signing a 1/31 deal that the Astros are on the hook for.

Edited January 1 by thawv

[Backtobanks]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think you could be right. But if it starts in year 3, fine. It is after one year that is crazy. 

Jed traded 3 players for Tucker who basically had a 1-year option.

[ToolDRT]

I’m honestly a bit surprised that people care this much anymore. The tom-Jed combo has me completely apathetic towrds baseball at this point. The two of them have pushed me right back into the arms of the bears and Blackhawks. 
 

I think once we refuse to offer Tucker 250-300 million I’ll just be done with baseball. Ricketts and Hoyer have strangled any passion I had left for the game. I was sad at first, but have become completely content. Join me, my brothers! 

[Bertz]

40 minutes ago, Stratos said:

At the end of the day the Cubs lost out on a pitcher the market evaluated at 3/63 with opt-outs. Not a huge deal.

It's another offseason waiting around on Scott Boras games.  No reason to panic, same when we held out for Bellinger.  There's still several very good FA from different positions on the table plus the ability to trade for a SP too.  Not Hoyers first rodeo.

 

I don't want to go nearly as far as "no big deal" but yeah i think we should collectively acknowledge that, even accounting for the opt outs, this guy essentially got Jameson Taillon money.  You have to update your priors when a guy gets ~half as much money as expected.  You just have to.

[ILMindState]

No such thing as a bad 1 year deal imo. That opt out doesn't scare me but I know Tom's not paying it. The biggest problem we have now is the path to a good offseason just became even more difficult. We're not gonna outbid anyone for Bregman and Gallen is risky, comes with a QO, and might want an opt out as well. Both of which Jed is afraid of. A trade is probably the best we can hope for but they're more difficult to pull off than just giving someone money. 

[Gjfificifjdej]

Losing Tucker sucks if you stopped watching after April. Im sure the Cubs can find someone to hit lazy grounders at the 1B for far cheaper 

[Tryptamine]

12 minutes ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

Losing Tucker sucks if you stopped watching after April. Im sure the Cubs can find someone to hit lazy grounders at the 1B for far cheaper 

You find me the RFer who is going to post 4.5 fWAR in a down year on the cheap. I'll be waiting.

[Derwood]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

You find me the RFer who is going to post 4.5 fWAR in a down year on the cheap. I'll be waiting.

Anyone who think that Caissie is going to replace Tucker's production are on serious drugs

[Gjfificifjdej]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

You find me the RFer who is going to post 4.5 fWAR in a down year on the cheap. I'll be waiting.

You did watch the games right? Literally anyone with a pulse. He was hard to watch

[Derwood]

6 minutes ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

You did watch the games right? Literally anyone with a pulse. He was hard to watch

So your eyeball test overrides actual statistical data?

[mk49]

Well, I just checked from July 1st to the end of the season, Tucker's fWAR was 0.7.  Only McGuire, Turner and Castro were worse than Tucker. (Note: I set the minimum PA to 60.)

[Tryptamine]

Just now, mk49 said:

Well, I just checked from July 1st to the end of the season, Tucker's fWAR was 0.7.  Only McGuire, Turner and Castro were worse than Tucker. (Note: I set the minimum PA to 60.)

Does the rest of the season where he doesn't have an injured hand not count?

[mk49]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Does the rest of the season where he doesn't have an injured hand not count?

I'm sure he was much better, if he was healthy.  No doubt.  But, Gjfificifjdej was talking about that version of Tucker (with injuries and all that.)

[Tryptamine]

4 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I'm sure he was much better, if he was healthy.  No doubt.  But, Gjfificifjdej was talking about that version of Tucker (with injuries and all that.)

So guy with broken hand is not worth a big contract if he has to perpetually play with a broken hand. Noted.

[mk49]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

So guy with broken hand is not worth a big contract if he has to perpetually play with a broken hand. Noted.

I'm not the guy who said we could find someone a lot cheaper.  I thought only Schwarber could replace Tucker this winter, but he's already gone.

[Bertz]

I hate the "except for when he was good he was bad" line of argument broadly, but it's especially poor when a guy was playing with an injury you have no reason to think is chronic.

[Randall Simon]

2 hours ago, ToolDRT said:

I’m honestly a bit surprised that people care this much anymore. The tom-Jed combo has me completely apathetic towrds baseball at this point. The two of them have pushed me right back into the arms of the bears and Blackhawks. 
 

I think once we refuse to offer Tucker 250-300 million I’ll just be done with baseball. Ricketts and Hoyer have strangled any passion I had left for the game. I was sad at first, but have become completely content. Join me, my brothers! 

This. The Cubs are not serious about winning. So why should I be serious about the Cubs? It's annoying, but I can no longer justify investing my time, money and emotions into an organization that clearly only values profits anymore. 

[Gjfificifjdej]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Does the rest of the season where he doesn't have an injured hand not count?

My argument is moreso that replacing Tuckers production is not really a big deal because he was replacement level for three months. They won 90 games with him doing essentially nothing for half the year. 

[Derwood]

9 minutes ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

My argument is moreso that replacing Tuckers production is not really a big deal because he was replacement level for three months. They won 90 games with him doing essentially nothing for half the year. 

do they win 90 games without his pre-injury production?

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Gjfificifjdej said:

My argument is moreso that replacing Tuckers production is not really a big deal because he was replacement level for three months. They won 90 games with him doing essentially nothing for half the year. 

They were more or less a .500ish team for 2/3s of a season too. From June 3rd through the end of the year they were 54-48