Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

[Brandon Glick]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Dansby Swanson	R	35	34	10	1	0	2	5	1	11	.294	.314	.500	.814	0	0	0	0	0
2	Kyle Tucker	L	12	10	2	1	0	0	2	1	2	.200	.250	.300	.550	0	1	0	0	0
3	Ian Happ	B	11	10	3	1	0	0	0	1	6	.300	.364	.400	.764	0	0	0	0	0
4	Justin Turner	R	9	8	5	2	0	2	3	1	0	.625	.667	1.625	2.292	0	0	0	0	0
5	Reese McGuire	L	7	6	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	.333	.429	.333	.762	0	0	0	0	0
6	Carson Kelly	R	6	6	3	0	1	0	1	0	3	.500	.500	.833	1.333	0	0	0	0	0
7	Michael Busch	L	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	.000	.200	.000	.200	0	0	0	0	0
8	Seiya Suzuki	R	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.200	.200	.200	.400	0	0	0	0	1
9	Willi Castro	B	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000	0	0	0	0	0
10	Nico Hoerner	R	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
11	Pete Crow-Armstrong	L	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	.333	.500	.333	.833	0	0	0	0	0
12	Matt Shaw	R	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 9/29/2025.

Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Xander Bogaerts	R	18	16	3	0	0	1	3	2	3	.188	.278	.375	.653	0	0	0	0	1
2	Manny Machado	R	14	13	5	2	0	0	3	0	3	.385	.357	.538	.896	0	1	0	0	0
3	Luis Arráez	L	9	7	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	.429	.556	.571	1.127	0	0	0	1	0
4	Freddy Fermin	R	7	7	2	1	0	0	2	0	3	.286	.286	.429	.714	0	0	0	0	0
5	Elias Díaz	R	6	5	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	.400	.500	.400	.900	0	0	0	0	0
6	Fernando Tatis Jr.	R	6	6	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	.167	.167	.167	.333	0	0	0	0	0
7	Jackson Merrill	L	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
8	Jose Iglesias	R	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0	0	0
9	Jake Cronenworth	L	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 9/29/2025.

Defensive context
Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

Notes On Key Matchups

• Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
• Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
• Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

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[muntjack]

This game isn't the series,  but it's kinda the series.  Go Cubs.

[squally1313]

1. Busch
2. Hoerner
3. Happ
4. Tucker (DH)
5. Suzuki
6. Kelly
7. PCA
8. Swanson
9. Shaw

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

25 minutes ago, muntjack said:

This game isn't the series,  but it's kinda the series.  Go Cubs.

Yeah, since this format started every team that won game 1 won the series.

[chibears55]

Watching Boyd conference yesterday and seeing him today greeting family outside the stadium, this guy going to have alot of emotions with every pitch today.

I hope they get a few on the board early and let him groove for 5-6 innings

[squally1313]

Alcantara on the roster probably means they're open to pinch hitting for PCA should the opportunity come up, especially now that him and Busch are pretty far apart in the lineup. 

I don't mind the idea of an opener for Shota tomorrow to give him a little length, think the poster in the other thread mentioned Civale but I might lean more to Soroka given his experience in pre-game preparation. 

[ILMindState]

Sounds like a good match up for Seiya and Nico

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Alcantara on the roster probably means they're open to pinch hitting for PCA should the opportunity come up, especially now that him and Busch are pretty far apart in the lineup. 

I don't mind the idea of an opener for Shota tomorrow to give him a little length, think the poster in the other thread mentioned Civale but I might lean more to Soroka given his experience in pre-game preparation. 

I was thinking Soroka too. Maybe for 2 innings. 

[I owned a Suzuki]

I really like Seiya in RF. I think the sample is big enough now to say there is something to playing the field that carries over to his hitting

[Ding Dong Johnson]

 

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Alcantara on the roster probably means they're open to pinch hitting for PCA should the opportunity come up, especially now that him and Busch are pretty far apart in the lineup. 

I don't mind the idea of an opener for Shota tomorrow to give him a little length, think the poster in the other thread mentioned Civale but I might lean more to Soroka given his experience in pre-game preparation. 

I'd go Soroka.  I think he's the better of the two pitchers (when things are all 100% right). Civale has been more interesting than I thought he would be, but tomorrow, I'd pencil in Soroka for an inning and change depending on the lineup. Maybe 4 or 5 hitters, then Shota time.

[UMFan83]

Damn Pivetta has a .503 OPS against at home and .681 on the road.  .681 is still goodish but drastically higher away from Petco.

[Bertz]

36 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Alcantara on the roster probably means they're open to pinch hitting for PCA should the opportunity come up, especially now that him and Busch are pretty far apart in the lineup. 

I don't mind the idea of an opener for Shota tomorrow to give him a little length, think the poster in the other thread mentioned Civale but I might lean more to Soroka given his experience in pre-game preparation. 

If the Padres are going to run this lineup out there I wouldn't risk an opener.  I think there's more risk in messing with Shota's routine than there is benefit in avoiding having Shota see Tatis/Machado a 3rd time.  It'd be different if the Padres had a couple lefty mashers up top but as is basically their entire lineup is worse against lefties or a stones throw from being split neutral.

[mul21]

55 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Alcantara on the roster probably means they're open to pinch hitting for PCA should the opportunity come up, especially now that him and Busch are pretty far apart in the lineup. 

I don't mind the idea of an opener for Shota tomorrow to give him a little length, think the poster in the other thread mentioned Civale but I might lean more to Soroka given his experience in pre-game preparation. 

That was me.  Civale was a starter all year before he got to the Cubs and has been for a while so I don't think Soroka has any real leg up for that reason.  Now, he's probably a better pitcher overall, so I don't have any objection to that route either.  I just figured Soroka was more trustworthy later in a game and was probably better suited to higher leverage use.

[chibears55]

38 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'd go Soroka.  I think he's the better of the two pitchers (when things are all 100% right). Civale has been more interesting than I thought he would be, but tomorrow, I'd pencil in Soroka for an inning and change depending on the lineup. Maybe 4 or 5 hitters, then Shota time.

I hope Counsel don't waste Soroka for just 1 inning, I'd rather use him if they need a guy to eat 2-3+ innings early.  

Perfect scenario for him IF needed would be for game 3 as the next guy in after Taillon 

[Dr. Cub]

Watching the Tigers game, and heard Taylors voice and I had to do a double take.   

[Jason Ross]

37 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I hope Counsel don't waste Soroka for just 1 inning, I'd rather use him if they need a guy to eat 2-3+ innings early.  

Perfect scenario for him IF needed would be for game 3 as the next guy in after Taillon 

They also have Rea and Civale. It's a three game set. If they need someone to eat 3 innings early, they have plenty of guys. If they need more than one game of someone eating that amount of innings, they are in trouble to begin with. 

It's fair to make an argument not to go with an opener as to not mess with Shota and his routine. But they will have plenty of options for innings eaters.

[Rex Buckingham]

@Fred Hornkohl vibes to start the thread. Love it.

Go Cubs !!

[ILMindState]

42 minutes ago, Dr. Cub said:

Watching the Tigers game, and heard Taylors voice and I had to do a double take.   

What was the name of the reporter before her? I remember being upset when they switched but TMac is so good I think I like her better 

[chibears55]

37 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

They also have Rea and Civale. It's a three game set. If they need someone to eat 3 innings early, they have plenty of guys. If they need more than one game of someone eating that amount of innings, they are in trouble to begin with. 

It's fair to make an argument not to go with an opener as to not mess with Shota and his routine. But they will have plenty of options for innings eaters.

Im just saying with Soroka, I wouldn't waste him in particular just to pitch 1 inning, I'd rather use him for extended innings if needed. 

Same with Rea, these two guys can get you those 3-4 innings if needed, so why waste them as an opener to just get you 1 inning, I would rather have them available in case the Starter gets pulled early. 

 

 

[chibears55]

20 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

What was the name of the reporter before her? I remember being upset when they switched but TMac is so good I think I like her better 

Kelly Crull

She was good too

[muntjack]

Watching this Tigers/Guardians game, a tense, 1-1 pitchers duel and whoever is doing color opened the bottom of the 5th by saying (in a sincerely bored tone) "well, not much really going on here. 1-1." 

Fire him on the spot. 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Im just saying with Soroka, I wouldn't waste him in particular just to pitch 1 inning, I'd rather use him for extended innings if needed. 

Same with Rea, these two guys can get you those 3-4 innings if needed, so why waste them as an opener to just get you 1 inning, I would rather have them available in case the Starter gets pulled early. 

 

 

Extended innings in the playoffs are almost assuredly in lower leverage situations. If you think Soroka is a better arm than those two (I think he is, especially out of the pen) than he's likely going to be in small doses. This is not like the regular season where you're worried about saving guys, especially in this three game set (with off days after) where you're worried about pen preservation outside of preserving for tomorrow. 

If a SP is bad, it's likely that you're asking an arm to go multiple innings because you're losing. That's a far better situation to use Rea or Civale than Soroka. If you're going with an opener, the score will 100% be 0-0 and you'll 100% be facing Fernando Tatis and other good hitters. That's an important spot. Don't horsefeathers around go with an opener and then default to one of your low leverage guys. That's really bad planning.

[CubinNY]

Anyone else nervous?

 

[JHBulls]

20 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Kelly Crull

She was good too

Former Cub reporter and current Cub reporter on the same broadcast? Nice!