Playoff Eve Thread (Cubs v Padres)

[Brandon Glick]

For the first time in five years, the playoffs tomorrow will include the Cubbies.

How ya feeling? Who is starting Game 3 with no Horton (if it gets that far)? Are you attending one of the games?

[squally1313]

Going to have to be Taillon on Thursday, and while in theory it could be considered more of a bullpen game, I think/hope Counsell is going to have a short leash Tuesday and Wednesday so not sure what type of shape the bullpen is going to be in. I expect us to hit though, so Padres should be in the same spot.

Cubs are currently -125 to win the series (Padres +105). Slight favorites tomorrow. Will be in attendance for game 2, these start times are stupid. 

Discussed elsewhere, but you can currently get +152 on a Hunter Greene start, which is awfully tempting. 

[soccer10k]

So we’re thinking it’s Boyd in G1 and Shota in G2? Or Rea in G2?

[Stratos]

10 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

So we’re thinking it’s Boyd in G1 and Shota in G2? Or Rea in G2?

I believe its not known yet.  Someone here speculated that game day wind conditions could be a factor and favor Shota if blowing in. 

[Bertz]

12 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

So we’re thinking it’s Boyd in G1 and Shota in G2? Or Rea in G2?

I'd be surprised if it's not Boyd-Shota-Taillon.  I think Rea has a good argument for a start, his full season numbers aren't that different from Taillon (or Shoa for that matter) and he's probably the hottest SP on the staff.  But I think his versatility works against him a bit.  You know Rea can come out of the bullpen without issue, you can't say the same about the others.

[Rex Buckingham]

Have to get some early offense, because I do not want to see this lineup chasing the game against Miller, Estrada, Suarez, etc.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

31 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

So we’re thinking it’s Boyd in G1 and Shota in G2? Or Rea in G2?

I think Rea will be saved to bail out anybody that struggles early.

[Brian707]

July like weather all week would probably mean the wind is blowing out.

[gflore34]

Feeling the Padres will score some runs and the Cubs will score a sh*t ton more.  Winning games by scores such as 12-9 and 11-7.

[sweetpeteman]

25 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

July like weather all week would probably mean the wind is blowing out.

Currently predicted 6 knots from the northeast, so in but not much wind at all.

Edited September 29, 2025 by sweetpeteman

[squally1313]

EOY fWAR rankings on the offensive side (among qualified hitters): PCA 15th, Nico 20th, Tucker 26th, Busch 45th, Swanson 52nd, Happ 77th, Suzuki 82nd.

Cubs finished 3rd in baseball in offensive fWAR, behind the Yankees and the Blue Jays. 7th in wOBA, 4th in xwOBA, 6th in wRC, 3rd in baserunning, 2nd in defense. 

Cubs finished 19th in baseball in pitching fWAR. 27th in K rate, 1st in BB rate, 3rd lowest BABIP allowed, 9th in ERA, 18th in xFIP. Boyd finished 22nd in fWAR, Horton 62nd, Rea 87th. Shota and Taillon not in the top 100. 

 

[CubinNY]

Main concern is the shadow between the mound and home plate after around the third inning. I know it's the same for both teams, so hold your keyboard tight. Whoever scores first tomorrow probably wins. In a short series, that first game is important. 

So, here is to hoping the Cubs score first and whoever is pitching doesn't horsefeathers the bed in the first inning. 

[Bertz]

35 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

EOY fWAR rankings on the offensive side (among qualified hitters): PCA 15th, Nico 20th, Tucker 26th, Busch 45th, Swanson 52nd, Happ 77th, Suzuki 82nd.

Cubs finished 3rd in baseball in offensive fWAR, behind the Yankees and the Blue Jays. 7th in wOBA, 4th in xwOBA, 6th in wRC, 3rd in baserunning, 2nd in defense. 

Cubs finished 19th in baseball in pitching fWAR. 27th in K rate, 1st in BB rate, 3rd lowest BABIP allowed, 9th in ERA, 18th in xFIP. Boyd finished 22nd in fWAR, Horton 62nd, Rea 87th. Shota and Taillon not in the top 100. 

 

2nd highest WAR by a Cub's position player group since WW2, and best pure offense in that span.  And somehow large swaths of people are convinced they're bad 🙃

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Tuesday: High of 77, Winds NNE 8 mph

Wednesday: High of 72, Winds ENE 10 mph

[UMFan83]

Fun fact: The Cubs have played every NL team in a playoff game/series except 3:  the Brewers, Phillies and Reds. While we can't play all 3 of them, they are all in the playoffs so we could potentially check off 2 of them if we advance far enough.

Furthermore, by playing the Padres, we've played 11 different NL teams in the playoffs since 2003 (as opposed to 1984 before this series was set)

Edited September 29, 2025 by UMFan83

[UMFan83]

More fun facts:

There have been 20 Wild Card round series including the 8 in 2020.  16 of the 20 have been sweeps.  18 of the 20 have been won by the team that wins Game 1.  

In the 2 exceptions, Game 2 and 3 were won by the home team (A's over White Sox, Padres over Cardinals)

[Saldabomber]

2 hours ago, soccer10k said:

So we’re thinking it’s Boyd in G1 and Shota in G2? Or Rea in G2?

I'm new here! Looking forward to discuss baseball with you guys. Last few starts for Shota he has not been the best, but I see no reason with not going with him, 1.4 era vs the padres in his career over 3 starts. Taillon should be our G3 starter if necessary in my opinion. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Welcome!

[chibears55]

Have to think now with both just getting 5 days rest, that Boyd will go Game 1 and Imanaga Game 2.

I think Taillon and Rea will be the guys for Game 3

[ILMindState]

 

[I owned a Suzuki]

I have had a kind of loathing of the Padres since 1984.....get it done Cubs!!!

[UMFan83]

24 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

 

Boyd has obviously had a rough go of it the last month or so but I have more confidence in him that Shota.  He's generally had one bad inning and mostly keeps it from going off the rails.  Hoping the adrenaline from a playoff start gives his tired arm a boost and he pitches his ass off.

[Bertz]

Padres going Pivetta-Cease-Darvish, as far as I can tell Craig hasn't said what's up past Boyd

[UMFan83]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Padres going Pivetta-Cease-Darvish, as far as I can tell Craig hasn't said what's up past Boyd

It can't be Taillon unless its on short rest so it would have to either be Shota with or without an opener, or a game patched together with some combo of Soroka, Assad, Rea and Civale.  It might also depend on how game 1 plays out with regards to the result and how the staff is used in that one.

Shota has been pretty bad lately but if we win game 1, I'd be willing to give him the start (or start post opener).  He still has the best shot of giving us 5-6 shutdown innings.

Edited September 29, 2025 by UMFan83

[PeanutPunch33]

I've been calling it all year long that the Mets will miss the playoffs.  I'm going to enjoy that prediction as I'm wrong on most other ones.. lol 

Hopefully the Cubs can make it to the NLDS and get a crack at Milwaukee.  IMO, they are beatable right now.