Cubs (Boyd) vs Giants (Verlander): 8/26/25, 8:45pm

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Just now, UMFan83 said:

I believe the last game they’ve won after trailing by multiple runs was 7/2 against Cleveland

[Neuby]

Cubs are going to win this. 

[Cubbies1996]

Just a masterclass of mismanagement by Counsell tonight. From Boyd, to pulling Busch, to pulling your best second half hitter in Shaw for a guy hitting in the .230s. Just pure garbage tonight. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Making every decision based on the last two weeks is what fickle fans do because fans think the last two weeks somehow override the long vision and history of a player. 

There is a reason MLB teams don't operate in two-week sample sizes.

Why does sitting on Tuesday somehow make Seiya Suzuki more likely to get a hit Wednesday when he already had Monday off? Can you explain that?

Instead of grasping at straws, just admit that you'd rather watch Owen Caissie right now because he's an unknown. These justifications are flimsy. I'd rather be honest than try to hide our biases. 

The problem is it hasn't been 2 weeks, Seiya has hit poorly since the ASB, so a month and a half.  .181 AVG/.259 SLG over that time, and hasn't really done any better over the last few weeks.

Seiya is the better hitter but given the frustration we've seen from Seiya at the plate I see no harm in giving him a couple of nights off against RHP to reset his head.  It worked out great for Tucker.

[mk49]

I think Seiya has been better than Tucker and PCA for both BA and OBP after the break.  Those two just started hitting more lately.  Yeah, I know Seiya hasn't been good, but I was more frustrated by Tucker and PCA.  Seiya should start hitting more like Tucker and PCA.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Every single year Jeds offenses forget how to hit for like a 2 month stretch. It doesn't feel like they are going to snap out of this. The SP have to carry us to the promised land. 

[Derwood]

Looks like going to bed when it was 3-2 was a wise decision

[Derwood]

Boyd has received a total of 12 runs of support over his last 5 starts

[CubUgly]

7 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Every single year Jeds offenses forget how to hit for like a 2 month stretch. It doesn't feel like they are going to snap out of this. The SP have to carry us to the promised land. 

Man, feels like to me the end of the Theo era was the same. 

[Geographyhater8888]

Cubs have 30 games to figure out how to score runs consistently assuming some catastrophic collapse doesn’t happen, 

[Geographyhater8888]

Seems like they peaked from July 4th of last year going a combined 103-70 scoring 904 runs to 676. The reinforcements of Shaw and the bullpens performance is how they’ve averted disaster from years past, playing 500 ball scoring 5+ runs 2X in their last 18.

[Geographyhater8888]

8 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Every single year Jeds offenses forget how to hit for like a 2 month stretch. It doesn't feel like they are going to snap out of this. The SP have to carry us to the promised land. 

Without the bullpen and the reinforcements of Shaw and Horton it’d be a carbon copy of last May. 5+ runs scored only 2X in their last 18.

[Jason Ross]

10 hours ago, Stratos said:

The problem is it hasn't been 2 weeks, Seiya has hit poorly since the ASB, so a month and a half.  .181 AVG/.259 SLG over that time, and hasn't really done any better over the last few weeks.

Seiya is the better hitter but given the frustration we've seen from Seiya at the plate I see no harm in giving him a couple of nights off against RHP to reset his head.  It worked out great for Tucker.

So then let's look at his batted ball data since the ASB, shall we? Let's see if he's hitting poorly himself or having a bit of bad luck. 

Season: 91.8mph EV, 18.3 LA, 18.1 barrel%, 49.3 hard hit%
Since ASB: 89.8mph EV, 15 LA, 17 barrel%, 44.3 hardhit%

If we look at his swing choices, he's swinging less at pitches out of the zone, he is making more contact, and he's walking more and striking out (significantly for both). 

Is he really hitting poorly? Most of his numbers are pretty darn close to his season numbers, except he now has a 74 wRC+ and a .233 BABIP. Hard hit is down a few percent and his EV is down a mph or so, but he hasn't nose dived. What does his xWOBA say? 

Per his xData he should be having his best month! Even his "bad month" had an xwOBA of around .340. This does not sound like a hitter the Cubs should be sitting. This is a hitter who is liable to break out of the bad luck literally any moment.

I am aware that people would like change because change in the lineup is viewed as "taking action" but sometimes the best thing to do is stay the course, not change things for change-sake. Suzuki is not hitting nearly as badly as his numbers suggest and the Cubs are unlikely to become better simply by doing something to create "action". 

[mul21]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

So then let's look at his batted ball data since the ASB, shall we? Let's see if he's hitting poorly himself or having a bit of bad luck. 

Season: 91.8mph EV, 18.3 LA, 18.1 barrel%, 49.3 hard hit%
Since ASB: 89.8mph EV, 15 LA, 17 barrel%, 44.3 hardhit%

If we look at his swing choices, he's swinging less at pitches out of the zone, he is making more contact, and he's walking more and striking out (significantly for both). 

Is he really hitting poorly? Most of his numbers are pretty darn close to his season numbers, except he now has a 74 wRC+ and a .233 BABIP. Hard hit is down a few percent and his EV is down a mph or so, but he hasn't nose dived. What does his xWOBA say? 

Per his xData he should be having his best month! Even his "bad month" had an xwOBA of 3.40. This does not sound like a hitter the Cubs should be sitting. This is a hitter who is liable to break out of the bad luck literally any moment.

I am aware that people would like change because change in the lineup is viewed as "taking action" but sometimes the best thing to do is stay the course, not change things for change-sake. Suzuki is not hitting nearly as badly as his numbers suggest and the Cubs are unlikely to become better simply by doing something to create "action". 

Can you look at how many times he's struck out on balls out of the zone and looking?  That's really the beef I have with his performance of late.  He's stopped being aggressive like he was earlier in the year and he's seeing a ton of hittable first pitch strikes and then the pitcher nibbles after that because they know they've got him on the defensive.  He gets screwed on called strikes more than anybody I've ever seen, but even outside of that, he just isn't making the right decisions at the plate.

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Can you look at how many times he's struck out on balls out of the zone and looking?  That's really the beef I have with his performance of late.  He's stopped being aggressive like he was earlier in the year and he's seeing a ton of hittable first pitch strikes and then the pitcher nibbles after that because they know they've got him on the defensive.  He gets screwed on called strikes more than anybody I've ever seen, but even outside of that, he just isn't making the right decisions at the plate.

I will be honest and say that if there is a data point on swinging strikeout% versus looking strikeout% than I am not sure where to find that. I've parsed FanGraphs, BRef and Statcast and while I can find data on how often he swings, how often he swings at strikes, how often he swings and misses at strikes, and how often he strikes out, there is not a data point that I can find that would specifically address looking at strike three versus swinging at strike three. So if there are folks out there who are better at table creation and manipulation please step in!

What I can say is that looking at his swing choices, decisions and the like, there seems to be a small downtick in swing decisions. His swing% is down around 4% and his in-zone swing% is down 3%. He's also getting less strikes, around 3% less strikes in general and 3% first pitch strikes. His chase% is also down, accounting for some of the lowered swing% numbers. His swinging strike% is down around 2%. 

Overall, while there is a a few percentage points in one way or another, I don't see anything that suggests there is a massive shift in his approach. Now, like I said, there may be someone out there who is far better at these things than me (I know I am not a spreadsheet master so tables are things I can use but can struggle at times - not my strong suit) and can highlight a significant shift in specifically his 2 strike approach to becoming far more passive, but everything I can see suggests that I think we anecdotally remember him striking out that way because we've kind of ingrained the idea that he's super passive with two-strikes/gets more bad calls than others, but I cannot find anything statistically to support a major shift between his season data and his post ASB data in his overall swing patterns.

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

So then let's look at his batted ball data since the ASB, shall we? Let's see if he's hitting poorly himself or having a bit of bad luck. 

Season: 91.8mph EV, 18.3 LA, 18.1 barrel%, 49.3 hard hit%
Since ASB: 89.8mph EV, 15 LA, 17 barrel%, 44.3 hardhit%

If we look at his swing choices, he's swinging less at pitches out of the zone, he is making more contact, and he's walking more and striking out (significantly for both). 

Is he really hitting poorly? Most of his numbers are pretty darn close to his season numbers, except he now has a 74 wRC+ and a .233 BABIP. Hard hit is down a few percent and his EV is down a mph or so, but he hasn't nose dived. What does his xWOBA say? 

Per his xData he should be having his best month! Even his "bad month" had an xwOBA of around .340. This does not sound like a hitter the Cubs should be sitting. This is a hitter who is liable to break out of the bad luck literally any moment.

I am aware that people would like change because change in the lineup is viewed as "taking action" but sometimes the best thing to do is stay the course, not change things for change-sake. Suzuki is not hitting nearly as badly as his numbers suggest and the Cubs are unlikely to become better simply by doing something to create "action". 

Per your numbers his EV is down, hard hit % down, barrel % down, LA down, BABIP down (BABIP isn't only a product of luck), AVG down, SLG down, wRC+ down.

What the metrics don't show is a hitter clearly frustrated at the plate. Resting a cold and frustrated hitter for a mental reset for a couple days isn't likely going to hurt the team.  Agree to disagree.

Edited August 27, 2025 by Stratos

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Per your numbers his EV is down, hard hit % down, barrel % down, LA down, BABIP down (BABIP isn't only a product of luck), AVG down, SLG down, wRC+ down.

What the metrics don't show is a hitter clearly frustrated at the plate. Resting a cold and frustrated hitter for a mental reset for a couple days isn't likely going to hurt the team.  Agree to disagree.

I can see starting Cassie over Suzuki maybe the next time the Cubs face a righty. But Cassie should not be starting over Suzuki with the exception of giving Suzuki a day to reset. This idea that Cassie gives the Cubs a better chance of winning is not something I agree with. Suzuki has been a very good hitter since he got to the Cubs. He will work his way out of this funk. As I said, 1 day, fine. But Vassie is not his replacement. 
I am just so amazed at how many people think they know more than the Cubs FO and manager. Everything they do there is someone suggested he knows better. I don’t agree with everything Counsell or the FO does, but I do know they have more data than I do when they make the decision they make. 

[Jason Ross]

48 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Per your numbers his EV is down, hard hit % down, barrel % down, LA down, BABIP down (BABIP isn't only a product of luck), AVG down, SLG down, wRC+ down.

What the metrics don't show is a hitter clearly frustrated at the plate. Resting a cold and frustrated hitter for a mental reset for a couple days isn't likely going to hurt the team.  Agree to disagree.

They're down fractionally. Down? Yes. Down within normal variance? Also, yes. 1% barrel% is, for example, one swing in 100. It's a meaningless difference as is most of the stuff being down. It's also up in August. 

It's hard to say he's frustrated when he's in the midst of his best xData month of the season. A lot of people love being body language experts, but the data suggests he's just fine. So unless we're behavioralists, it's probably best to side with Craig Counsell's opinion on things and the data. What we *think* we see isn't being supported. A frustrated hitter incapable of helping out wouldn't be hitting the crap out of the baseball so much that his xData shot through the roof nor would he have been capable of getting on base twice last night. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

When Seiya swings at the first pitch he is batting 221/281/419. When he takes the first pitch he is batting 249/327/490. 

 

Seiya is too passive in the shadows. That's tough to criticize, right? Like we want our guys to not chase and create bad outs. However, the umps have not given him the benefit of the doubt for 3 years so he needs to be mindful of that and protect more IMO. Thats my biggest complaint. But right now he is just not dictating ABs. Not many of our guys are. They are falling behind and hitting defensively. 

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

When Seiya swings at the first pitch he is batting 221/281/419. When he takes the first pitch he is batting 249/327/490. 

 

Seiya is too passive in the shadows. That's tough to criticize, right? Like we want our guys to not chase and create bad outs. However, the umps have not given him the benefit of the doubt for 3 years so he needs to be mindful of that and protect more IMO. Thats my biggest complaint. But right now he is just not dictating ABs. Not many of our guys are. They are falling behind and hitting defensively. 

And just to be fair to Seiya a bit more here; hitting pitches on the shadows is not a recommended thing to do. League wide hitters are just putting up a .269 wOBA on pitches on the shadow with a barrel rate under 4%. This is compared to a .356 wOBA on pitches in the heart.

On one hand you want him to maybe fight those pitches off a little more when he's down in the count. On the other, it's just bad business to swing at them often because you're just not getting much done with them.

[Stratos]

54 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

They're down fractionally. Down? Yes. Down within normal variance? Also, yes. 1% barrel% is, for example, one swing in 100. It's a meaningless difference as is most of the stuff being down. It's also up in August. 

It's hard to say he's frustrated when he's in the midst of his best xData month of the season. A lot of people love being body language experts, but the data suggests he's just fine. So unless we're behavioralists, it's probably best to side with Craig Counsell's opinion on things and the data.

Craig Counsell or any other manager  isn't beyond criticism.

You don't need to be a "behaviorlist" (i assume you mean "behaviourist") to see a player is frustrated when he's frequently having fits on strike calls he doesn't like, many of which he's been wrong on, which is unusual for him.  I can't imagine who has watched the games is going to argue he's not frustrated.  Same with Tucker during his slump.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I can see starting Cassie over Suzuki maybe the next time the Cubs face a righty. But Cassie should not be starting over Suzuki with the exception of giving Suzuki a day to reset. This idea that Cassie gives the Cubs a better chance of winning is not something I agree with. Suzuki has been a very good hitter since he got to the Cubs. He will work his way out of this funk. As I said, 1 day, fine. But Vassie is not his replacement. 
I am just so amazed at how many people think they know more than the Cubs FO and manager. Everything they do there is someone suggested he knows better. I don’t agree with everything Counsell or the FO does, but I do know they have more data than I do when they make the decision they make. 

They gave Tucker a couple of days off to reset and it seemed to work. I don't see the harm in doing it with Seiya instead of watching him spaz at strike calls where the umps made the right calls on. 

I obviously wouldn't replace Seiya with anyone beyond that.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

They gave Tucker a couple of days off to reset and it seemed to work. I don't see the harm in doing it with Seiya instead of watching him spaz at strike calls where the umps made the right calls on. 

I obviously wouldn't replace Seiya with anyone beyond that.

But we really don’t know if the Tucker break was something the staff saw in his swing and wanted him to work something out a few days or a mental reboot. Maybe there isn’t anything wrong with Seiya’s swing. Jason already pointed out it is more as luck than anything else. As I said, if they played. Assume one game, maybe against Webb, I wouldn’t mind. But I don’t think that move increases the Cubs chance to win. It just gives Seiya a day off. While I don’t agree with everything Counsell does, I do trust him to make the right decision more often than I or anyone in our discussions would make. 

[Gjfificifjdej]

10 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Craig Counsell or any other manager  isn't beyond criticism.

You don't need to be a "behaviorlist" (i assume you mean "behaviourist") to see a player is frustrated when he's frequently having fits on strike calls he doesn't like, many of which he's been wrong on, which is unusual for him.  I can't imagine who has watched the games is going to argue he's not frustrated.  Same with Tucker during his slump.

Its getting really old watching Suzuki pout over a called strike that isn’t even close to a ball. 

[Derwood]

His swing can be fine but if he isn't seeing the ball well or is guessing too much, that's a mental thing that may require a brief rest