The Cubs Are "One Team To Watch" In Dylan Cease Sweepstakes

[Matthew Lenz]

The Chicago Cubs have had a pretty busy and solid offseason highlighted acquiring Kyle Tucker and more recently high-leverage reliever Ryan Pressly from the Houston Astros. While it was suggested earlier this week that they're not done supplementing the bullpen, Jon Morosi has some more intriguing hot stove fodder related to their starting rotation.

Cease, who is just 29-years-old and has two top-4 Cy Young seasons under his belt, has recently been the subject of trade rumors as the San Diego Padres look to get below the luxury tax threshold amid a lawsuit between family members of late owner Peter Seidler. The right-handed ace has just one year left of arbitration making him an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of the 2025 season.

While the Cubs don't have a shortage of arms, Cease would undoubtedly create an extremely formidable 1-2-3 punch with Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele. If the Cubs acquired the zero time all-star (how is that possible????), they would assuredly be up there with the Los Angeles Dodgers as having one of the best and deepest rotations in baseball.

Given the Padres preference to shed some salary but also remain competitive, the deal would likely require another big-league starter who's in their pre-arbitration years plus additional pieces. The Cubs also have depth in the outfield, but the only players who fit the bill would be Pete Crow-Armstrong, and to a lesser extent Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara.

What do you think a deal for Dylan Cease looks like for the Cubs?

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[Dfan25]

 

[JunkyardWalrus]

delete

Edited January 30, 2025 by JunkyardWalrus

[WhyCantWeWin]

Just now, Dfan25 said:

 

Hard pass on that

[Tryptamine]

15 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

 

Good luck with that Preller.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I think to an extent the industry has spoken on our prospects and they might not hold the value we hope. All of them are widely seen as good-not-great. They're like just outside the top 20, and I think Shaw cracked the top 20 on one list. Even Mo's ARL performance is nearly completely ignored and people focus on the defense and body. Shaw for Cease probably isn't that outlandish; I just hope Jed doesn't go there. I fully don't believe he will.

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Good luck with that Preller.

Ace-quality pitcher who has made at least 32 starts in 4 straight seasons averaging about 180 IP and making less than Kyle Tucker this year, That year is crazy valuable to a contender. He will get a highly-touted prospect of some sort if he moves him.

[CubinNY]

If Jed gets Bergman does that make Shaw more or less available in a trade? What would be their long term strategy with a bunch of short term signings and a depleted minor league system? 
 

Interesting times

[CubinNY]

The cocaine strategy. 

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

 

That type of negotiating feels like someone who's back is a little against the wall. You assume the Padres have to move that money sooner rather than later and probably aren't a ton of teams who have shopping left to do, and prospect capital. Knowing that, you have to find some way to grab some initiative back, and over asking is one of the few ways you could do that. Ask for the moon and maybe you'll get closer to premium than if you didn't.

I don't think it'll work, and if he's going to shed money, the overall pricetag will almost assuredly will come down. 

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I think to an extent the industry has spoken on our prospects and they might not hold the value we hope. All of them are widely seen as good-not-great. They're like just outside the top 20, and I think Shaw cracked the top 20 on one list. Even Mo's ARL performance is nearly completely ignored and people focus on the defense and body. Shaw for Cease probably isn't that outlandish; I just hope Jed doesn't go there. I fully don't believe he will.

Rental pitchers don't generally net anything close to that because of pitcher attrition.  Hell just look at Cease specifically.  Last spring two years of Dylan Cease didn't return a headliner anywhere near the caliber of Shaw, it certainly wouldn't now.

[NorthsideAvenger]

12 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

If Jed gets Bergman does that make Shaw more or less available in a trade? What would be their long term strategy with a bunch of short term signings and a depleted minor league system? 
 

Interesting times

I don't think so.

 

Edited January 30, 2025 by NorthsideAvenger

[Tryptamine]

17 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Ace-quality pitcher who has made at least 32 starts in 4 straight seasons averaging about 180 IP and making less than Kyle Tucker this year, That year is crazy valuable to a contender. He will get a highly-touted prospect of some sort if he moves him.

He might get a highly touted prospect but it's not going to be an MLB ready top 30 prospect and then more on top of that. If he's getting a top 50 guy it's going to be someone a year or two from the bigs. It's not going to be someone who is immediately able to step into the lineup as a first division starter. 

Edited January 30, 2025 by Tryptamine

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

If Jed gets Bergman does that make Shaw more or less available in a trade? What would be their long term strategy with a bunch of short term signings and a depleted minor league system? 
 

Interesting times

The farm system will certainly take a hit, yes. However, the goal of a farm system is to supplement the major league roster - either through promotion and eventually taking jobs, or by being traded for established and current MLB talent. This is simply one of the ways to use that system. An all-in-approach either direction can be a franchise killer, either because prospect attrition rate (i.e. look at the Tigers over the last decade) or no prospects to take jobs. 

While it's fair to point out that the Cubs may end up trading Smith, and an OF'er and maybe a pitcher for players who won't be here next season, if they traded for players who had, say, an extra year of control, it would probably be double that cost. By trading for limited control, you limit your exposure on the back end with prospects leaving. 

The Cubs will also have drafts to continue to replenish the system. And if they miss on resigning Tucker and Cease/King, would get two compensation picks as well (the Cubs recent 2nd round selections include James Triantos and Jackson Ferris, two borderline top-100 types). As well, the Cubs have seemingly done well on their recent first round picks, snagging top-30 types in Shaw and Smith who immediately shot up rankings. A bit of trust is to be put into the Cubs drafting and developmental team currently. So while the Cubs may lose players, their ability to continue to replace them is seemingly quite strong. 

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The farm system will certainly take a hit, yes. However, the goal of a farm system is to supplement the major league roster - either through promotion and eventually taking jobs, or by being traded for established and current MLB talent. This is simply one of the ways to use that system. An all-in-approach either direction can be a franchise killer, either because prospect attrition rate (i.e. look at the Tigers over the last decade) or no prospects to take jobs. 

While it's fair to point out that the Cubs may end up trading Smith, and an OF'er and maybe a pitcher for players who won't be here next season, if they traded for players who had, say, an extra year of control, it would probably be double that cost. By trading for limited control, you limit your exposure on the back end with prospects leaving. 

The Cubs will also have drafts to continue to replenish the system. And if they miss on resigning Tucker and Cease/King, would get two compensation picks as well (the Cubs recent 2nd round selections include James Triantos and Jackson Ferris, two borderline top-100 types). As well, the Cubs have seemingly done well on their recent first round picks, snagging top-30 types in Shaw and Smith who immediately shot up rankings. A bit of trust is to be put into the Cubs drafting and developmental team currently. So while the Cubs may lose players, their ability to continue to replace them is seemingly quite strong. 

kind of. Maybe? Anyway, it would be a 180 change from the mouth of the owner and Jed himself... and it's not remotely sustainable due to the time factor of the drafted players. 

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

kind of. Maybe? Anyway, it would be a 180 change from the mouth of the owner and Jed himself... and it's not remotely sustainable due to the time factor of the drafted players. 

Would it be a 180? I don't remember the Cubs ever saying they refused to ever trade prospects ever. The Cubs have talked about sustainability, but let's say the Cubs do go ahead and further move an OF'er (Caissie or Alcantara) and even a SP (Jordan Wicks, Brandon Birdsell, Javier Assad - one of these guys). The Cubs youth and prospect depth at the upper level remains strong with:

Matt Shaw - 2b/3b
James Triantos - 2b/3b/OF
Kevin Alcantara (OF) or Owen Caissie (RF/1b/DH)
Moises Ballesteros (C/1b/C)
With SP's and RP's that could include (minus one of these SP's): Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Brandon Birdsell, Jordan Wicks, Luke Little, Daniel Palencia, Javier Assad

That's not even everyone as there are some more pop-uppy types like Jonathon Long who could maybe fill in at 3b, 1b, or LF. Beyond that, the Cubs have the entirety of their 2024 class (sans Cam Smith), and other young players such as Jefferson Rojas, Jaxson Wiggins... (including IFA's and other draft classes) to backfill these positions. There's immediate prospect depth at every position currently outside of SS (though with Swanson in tow, probably isn't immediately necessary and Shaw can likely handle it in a pinch) with plenty of options. The Cubs don't need their draft classes to provide immediate depth - any loss over the next year to two years can be filled within even after a trade for Cease or King with relative ease. 

It should also be remembered how quickly Shaw and Smith, the most recent two first round picks moved through the system. Matt Shaw has gone from draft day to the presumed starter on the Cubs in 18 months. Cam Smith was on a similar path (although there's reason to pause a bit there as we have a year before that would have been a reality). While I wouldn't expect that path to continue, but the Cubs have proven an ability to continue to find value. 

[gflore34]

Shaw or no Shaw, etc. all of this is going to rendered moot when the horsefeathers Dodgers trade for Cease.  Only a matter of time.

[squally1313]

The Shaw for Cease deal isn't happening in my opinion because...it would have already happened if Jed was willing to go that route? It's almost February, Padres need to start cutting checks in a month, Cubs wouldn't leave a gaping hole at third a couple weeks before spring training, etc.

In the hypothetical, it's interesting in that Shaw for Cease leaves 3B wide open, which would obviously imply Bregman, but unless we're blowing through every budget number thrown out there, you need to cut salary, which likely means Hoerner, who no longer has a Matt Shaw-sized replacement. 

I think people are a little too pessimistic on our ability to sign Tucker/Padres pitcher long term. We have a lot of 2026 money tied up but it clears up fast after that, and a lot of the 2026 money is moveable. We were able to dump Bellinger, we should hypothetically be able to get rid of guys like Happ/Hoerner (better players making less money) if we wanted to reallocate resources. 

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The Shaw for Cease deal isn't happening in my opinion because...it would have already happened if Jed was willing to go that route? It's almost February, Padres need to start cutting checks in a month, Cubs wouldn't leave a gaping hole at third a couple weeks before spring training, etc.

In the hypothetical, it's interesting in that Shaw for Cease leaves 3B wide open, which would obviously imply Bregman, but unless we're blowing through every budget number thrown out there, you need to cut salary, which likely means Hoerner, who no longer has a Matt Shaw-sized replacement. 

I think people are a little too pessimistic on our ability to sign Tucker/Padres pitcher long term. We have a lot of 2026 money tied up but it clears up fast after that, and a lot of the 2026 money is moveable. We were able to dump Bellinger, we should hypothetically be able to get rid of guys like Happ/Hoerner (better players making less money) if we wanted to reallocate resources. 

Not to mention the fact that if they do stay under the CBT number this year, they'd be back to a first time offender again in 2026 with a ton of money coming off in 2027 to get back under again.  There's almost no reason to think budget will be the issue when it comes to re-signing those guys.  Contract length, yeah, probably something to be concerned about, especially if Jed is still around.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The Shaw for Cease deal isn't happening in my opinion because...it would have already happened if Jed was willing to go that route? It's almost February, Padres need to start cutting checks in a month, Cubs wouldn't leave a gaping hole at third a couple weeks before spring training, etc.

In the hypothetical, it's interesting in that Shaw for Cease leaves 3B wide open, which would obviously imply Bregman, but unless we're blowing through every budget number thrown out there, you need to cut salary, which likely means Hoerner, who no longer has a Matt Shaw-sized replacement. 

I think people are a little too pessimistic on our ability to sign Tucker/Padres pitcher long term. We have a lot of 2026 money tied up but it clears up fast after that, and a lot of the 2026 money is moveable. We were able to dump Bellinger, we should hypothetically be able to get rid of guys like Happ/Hoerner (better players making less money) if we wanted to reallocate resources. 

Fully agree with this, and especially that last paragraph. I think people are a bit down on their ability to get a guy signed and I do think that they should be able to move some money if need be. They will have four players on expiring contracts (Taillon, Hoerner, Happ and Suzuki) who should be all different levels of "moveable", They play a few different positions which should give the team some flexibility and all would have an immediate prospect replacement if need be, as well. 

[Bertz]

On the prospect depth piece, it's also worth noting the pre-arb players that don't show up on prospect lists

0-1 year service: PCA, Brown, Hodge

1-2 year service: Amaya, Busch. Wicks

2-3 years service: Assad

That's on top of the 4 hitters (Alcantara, Cassie, Triantos, Ballesteros) at Iowa who've shown up on a Top 100 list over the last week.  Plus Horton and Birdsell.  Plus the complimentary bench/bullpen types.

You don't want to recklessly burn through this list but you can comfortably dip into it 2-3 times over the next 12-18 months IMO.

[Rcal10]

If SD absolutely has to have Shaw the conversation should be over. Anyone else in the system is fair game. Plus add Assad, Brown or Wicks and another younger prospect. If that doesn’t get it done, move on. Sign Robertson and improve the bench. 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Rental pitchers don't generally net anything close to that because of pitcher attrition.  Hell just look at Cease specifically.  Last spring two years of Dylan Cease didn't return a headliner anywhere near the caliber of Shaw, it certainly wouldn't now.

Circling back to this.  The Dylan Cease trade last year was for 

Drew Thorpe - A very good SP prospect at AA who made the back half of most of the offseason Top 100s

Jairo Iriarte - A good SP prospect at AA for whom opinions diverged a bit more than Thorpe.  Fangraphs 100'd him while MLB didn't for instance

Samuel Zavala - A LatAm bonus baby who performed very well in Low A as an 18 year old

Steve Wilson - A young RP with good stuff, a good ERA, and trash peripherals 

This isnt perfect, but the equivalent from us right now would be something like Horton, Birdsell, Jefferson Rojas, and Keegan Thompson?  And that was for two years of Cease, not 1. 

So honestly, I'm not even sure a Caissie or Alcantara should be in bounds,  especially if we're taking back Suarez.  Assad, Wicks, and Preller's favorite non-Hodge reliever might be more appropriate.  And he can address LF with the $$ he saves.

[Rcal10]

35 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Circling back to this.  The Dylan Cease trade last year was for 

Drew Thorpe - A very good SP prospect at AA who made the back half of most of the offseason Top 100s

Jairo Iriarte - A good SP prospect at AA for whom opinions diverged a bit more than Thorpe.  Fangraphs 100'd him while MLB didn't for instance

Samuel Zavala - A LatAm bonus baby who performed very well in Low A as an 18 year old

Steve Wilson - A young RP with good stuff, a good ERA, and trash peripherals 

This isnt perfect, but the equivalent from us right now would be something like Horton, Birdsell, Jefferson Rojas, and Keegan Thompson?  And that was for two years of Cease, not 1. 

So honestly, I'm not even sure a Caissie or Alcantara should be in bounds,  especially if we're taking back Suarez.  Assad, Wicks, and Preller's favorite non-Hodge reliever might be more appropriate.  And he can address LF with the $$ he saves.

That might be the right valuation, but I would bet it will take more. Maybe Cassie, Assad and a pen arm, not named Hodge for Cease and Suarez. Maybe a 4th small piece is added as well. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

I agree that's an overpay for Cease, as Shaw has climbed prospect rankings.

But it's not just "for Cease". Barring injury, there is also a 2026 35-ish pick attached after you offer him a QO. That needs to be a factor in properly valuing Cease.