The Cubs Are "One Team To Watch" In Dylan Cease Sweepstakes

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I agree that's an overpay for Cease, as Shaw has climbed prospect rankings.

But it's not just "for Cease". Barring injury, there is also a 2026 35-ish pick attached after you offer him a QO. That needs to be a factor in properly valuing Cease.

Is the pick that high? I didn’t think a large market team got a pick after round 1 for losing a FA. Still not worth Shaw. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Is the pick that high? I didn’t think a large market team got a pick after round 1 for losing a FA. Still not worth Shaw. 

True, it could be lower, I'm too used to thinking in terms of broke-ass teams.

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

True, it could be lower, I'm too used to thinking in terms of broke-ass teams.

Yeah for the Cubs it's closer to 75 usually

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

True, it could be lower, I'm too used to thinking in terms of broke-ass teams.

I think if the Cubs don’t go over the LT this year, it is before the 3rd rd but after all the comp A and B picks. So somewhere around  80th. And if they go over it may be after rd  3. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

"We need to clear payroll.  Give us your best prospect and more!"

[Post Count Padder]

Ok so can we just do Cease and Suarez for Caissie, Assad, Merryweather or Keegan Thompson and, say, Pedro Ramirez? Seems like that should be enough. Maybe another lottery ticket.

[squally1313]

51 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

That might be the right valuation, but I would bet it will take more. Maybe Cassie, Assad and a pen arm, not named Hodge for Cease and Suarez. Maybe a 4th small piece is added as well. 

Why? If anything, Suarez has negative value. 

[Dfan25]

Jesse Rogers just said that from what he has been told , there is no match with the Padres unless Shaw is involved  fwiw . I still think the Cubs match up well with Cassie / Wicks / 3rd piece .

Edited January 30, 2025 by Dfan25

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Why? If anything, Suarez has negative value. 

I get that. But I don’t think the Padres FO will agree with that. As I said, coming from our POV I completely agree with you. But I would be shocked if the Cubs got him without losing a top 100 prospect and a pitcher to replace Cease and probably another piece. And if the Cubs view Suarez as negative value then padres won’t add him. 

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I get that. But I don’t think the Padres FO will agree with that. As I said, coming from our POV I completely agree with you. But I would be shocked if the Cubs got him without losing a top 100 prospect and a pitcher to replace Cease and probably another piece. And if the Cubs view Suarez as negative value then padres won’t add him. 

Eh....they're the ones that need to cut payroll. The Cubs (and everyone else) know it. If the Yankees or whoever want to beat our offer, more power to them. Won't adversely affect us. See if they want to punt the year and then take King, or go sign Bregman, or go sign Robertson and Moncada and a 1B. It's all going to wash out to about the same (as long as they do something). 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Yeah if the Padres aren’t budging on Shaw, I’m fine if they want to sign Robertson, round out the bench and call it an offseason unless something falls into their laps. Shaw is too critical to this roster after the Tucker trade.

[Jason Ross]

The Padres were reportedly being real weird on their initial demands on Soto last year (when, similarly, for financial reasons they needed to move off him), only to trade him for a price that came back down to much more "reasonable". I bet this is similar.

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Eh....they're the ones that need to cut payroll. The Cubs (and everyone else) know it. If the Yankees or whoever want to beat our offer, more power to them. Won't adversely affect us. See if they want to punt the year and then take King, or go sign Bregman, or go sign Robertson and Moncada and a 1B. It's all going to wash out to about the same (as long as they do something). 

Yeah I think I've been as guilty of insisting "the Cubs have got to trade something" as anybody over the last 6 months.  But the Paredes trade opening up a full time spot for Shaw and finding out that Alcantara has another option year in 2026 kills much of that urgency.

I would like the Cubs to make a big trade now.  But spending the rest of the offseason funds on boring stuff and heading into the trade deadline with a tall stack of chips is A Okay.

[MarkBellhorn]

Would u do Shaw/Wicks/Thompson for Cease/Suarez? If the Cubs followed that up with signing Bregman, Chafin, Canha?

 

[SOFNR]

25 minutes ago, MarkBellhorn said:

Would u do Shaw/Wicks/Thompson for Cease/Suarez? If the Cubs followed that up with signing Bregman, Chafin, Canha?

 

If the Cubs got Cease/Suarez they'd maybe have the money for Canha. Certainly not the other two. 

[Rcal10]

39 minutes ago, MarkBellhorn said:

Would u do Shaw/Wicks/Thompson for Cease/Suarez? If the Cubs followed that up with signing Bregman, Chafin, Canha?

 

No, but this isn’t even possible anyway. Cubs aren’t spending that. Suarez is not a value. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Padres were reportedly being real weird on their initial demands on Soto last year (when, similarly, for financial reasons they needed to move off him), only to trade him for a price that came back down to much more "reasonable". I bet this is similar.

Thats true. But right now they won’t take Assad, Wicks and a pen arm for Cease, with or without Suarez. 
and if they never get real with what they can get for Cease I am fine with the Cubs moving to signing Robertson and a couple bench bats 

Edited January 31, 2025 by Rcal10

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Thats true. But right now they won’t take Assad, Wicks and a pen arm for Cease, with or without Suarez. 

If that's the case, then that's fine. The Cubs dont have to consumate a trade right now, either. So it doesn't really matter. 

Either the Padres and Preller will get real and the price on Cease will more mirror Burnes' did last year or they'll have to deal with their financial issues head on because no one on the planet is paying that price. 

I dont think their Shaw ask is anything more than an attempt to force the trade talks up, anyways. Classic "start high" move. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

If that's the case, then that's fine. The Cubs dont have to consumate a trade right now, either. So it doesn't really matter. 

Either the Padres and Preller will get real and the price on Cease will more mirror Burnes' did last year or they'll have to deal with their financial issues head on because no one on the planet is paying that price. 

Kind of funny, I was editing my post to say basically what you said while I was editing. 100% agree. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

39 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

If that's the case, then that's fine. The Cubs dont have to consumate a trade right now, either. So it doesn't really matter. 

Either the Padres and Preller will get real and the price on Cease will more mirror Burnes' did last year or they'll have to deal with their financial issues head on because no one on the planet is paying that price. 

I dont think their Shaw ask is anything more than an attempt to force the trade talks up, anyways. Classic "start high" move. 

So it's a staring contest between Hoyer and Preller?

[Dfan25]

Heyman says the Cubs are involved , but the Mets may have the advantage .  There is also this from Cerami who hears stuff from time to time :

 

 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

So it's a staring contest between Hoyer and Preller?

I'd imagine other teams would be interested. Seeing that the Mets are one.

[Jason Ross]

36 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Heyman says the Cubs are involved , but the Mets may have the advantage .  There is also this from Cerami who hears stuff from time to time :

 

 

 

That's probably fine. I'd like to get a Cease or a King, but the Cubs can probably wait until July to make another big trade. Grab Robertson, build a badass bullpen, and the team still goes into the season as the NL Central favorites on paper with ability to add throughout the year.

[Bertz]

I do want Cease dealt even if it's not here. The Cubs' April schedule is so damn brutal, and part of that is facing the Padres twice.  Even though in an objective sense Cease going to the Mets is lateral for us, punting an extra hard game or two to later in the year would be nice.

[Stratos]

Trading the org's 3 best 3B's in one offseason and leaving a giant hole isn't going to happen.