Cubs sign RHP Colin Rea

[chibears55]

50 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Aside from Tucker (which is fantastic)

Cubs have acquired Zastrysny, Bickford, Morgan, Kristen, Boyd, Workman, Kelly, Poteet, Brujan, Heller, Thielbar, Festa, Rea.

Hardly close to the pitching staff and roster we had been hoping to spend 60 million for to push us onward towards the holy holy. Jed better step up in the next month and spend $ or collateral or both? 

This is what I was saying above,  they spend cheaply on a bunch of guys that'll end up released or depth over using the sum of that cost towards one or two guys that could actually be a good part of the team 

[LBiittner]

Youre right chibear, Factor in $'s for zastrysny, poteet, thielbar, festa and Rea, wouldn't that together be about 10mil? Ten million for shot and shinola?

Edited January 11, 2025 by LBiittner

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

Mooney, who is very much not a cheerleader for this front office, makes this sound like an addition rather than the addition.

 

I just thought of the possibility of them maybe piggybacking the #5 starter.  Boyd isn't the type to go deep yet while still building back from TJS, so they need innings.  Assad wasn't going very deep either.  A swing guy and multi-innings reliever can be valuable these days.

Signings like Boyd and Rea sound like they want enough options to get through all innings they'll need.

[Stratos]

9 hours ago, Bertz said:

The Cubs currently have a clear top 4.  They also an hour ago already had 8 depth starters:

Ben Brown

Javier Assad

Cody Poteet

Jordan Wicks

Brandon Birdsell

Cade Horton

Connor Noland

Caleb Kilian

Colin Rea is better than most of these guys right this second (ZiPS has him behind the top 3 and tied with Wicks) but man does this not feel like an appropriate use of resources unless the 8 names above is about to be more like 5-6.

A couple guys in the rotation could be on the IL at any given time, and a few guys from your list as well.

Let's say as an example Horton/Brown/Wicks are hurt again, and a couple guys in rotation need replacing, we'll need more than Kilian/Noland/Poteet.  Smyly and Wesneski are gone so Rea is a replacement.  We can say Boyd replaces Hendricks.

I don't think this signing means much other than depth.  They have money and would be wise to get another quality SP.

I don't think Sasaki would affect any lower tier signing, they can always prepare for the worst and dump/trade one of the guys on your list if Sasaki signs.

[CubinNY]

Cubs always looking to be the tallest short person. 

[I owned a Suzuki]

This feels like a Pittsburgh Pirates like move

[Bertz]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

A couple guys in the rotation could be on the IL at any given time, and a few guys from your list as well.

Let's say as an example Horton/Brown/Wicks are hurt again, and a couple guys in rotation need replacing, we'll need more than Kilian/Noland/Poteet.  Smyly and Wesneski are gone so Rea is a replacement.  We can say Boyd replaces Hendricks.

I don't think this signing means much other than depth.  They have money and would be wise to get another quality SP.

I don't think Sasaki would affect any lower tier signing, they can always prepare for the worst and dump/trade one of the guys on your list if Sasaki signs.

He doesn't have minor league options so it's not actually that simple.  Yeah when there's several injuries it's easy to see his spot on the roster, but what about when there's not?  Cody Poteet is a guy of this ilk who has value because we can just leave him idling in Iowa.  But Rea is very much in the way when things are going well.  ZiPS projects Rea with an ERA+ of 90.  19 Cubs (not including likely Thielbar who missed the article cutoff) are currently projected better than that.  Four of the depth starters in Assad, Brown, Wicks, and Poteet are projected better than that.

Honestly the lack of options broadly is a roster issue.  Porter Hodge and Eli Morgan are the only pitchers on the roster with options.  The team will have to cut guys or abuse the IL to maneuver the roster in season.  Neither is impossible, but it feels silly to do so for the sake of hoarding guys like Rea.

Like I'm Mr. Positive but if there's not a subsequent trade or some unpublished injury news I can't even devil's advocate my way into this being a good idea. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

3 hours ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

This feels like a Pittsburgh Pirates like move

Nah.  The Pirates can't afford the luxury of a meaningless move like this.  It feels more like "How can we piddle away our large market advantage without spending like a large market team?"

[CubinNY]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

I just thought of the possibility of them maybe piggybacking the #5 starter.  Boyd isn't the type to go deep yet while still building back from TJS, so they need innings.  Assad wasn't going very deep either.  A swing guy and multi-innings reliever can be valuable these days.

Signings like Boyd and Rea sound like they want enough options to get through all innings they'll need.

The smartest guys in the room. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

14 hours ago, chibears55 said:

What icks me, is that they spend 1 to 5 mil per on a handful of pitchers that most will probably not even play with them all season or get DFA and end up in AAA, when they can use that sum of that money towards someone who can actually be a good part of the rotation or bullpen.

It's like Jed took that old Method Man line to heart, "If you can't get yourself a 10. The least you can do is horsefeathers five 2's."

[Rcal10]

I am going to reserve my judgement on this until we see what else happens. If they add another staring pitcher and Rea going into Asaad’s spot on the team (swing starter/long relief) and Assad is either traded or starts the season in Iowa, I would be ok with this. If, however, Rea is the last addition to the staff this is a horrible move. And, even if they added a pen arm but counted on Rea to be the (th starter and Assad goes to Iowa, this is still bad. Rea cannot be one of the 5 starters. But as I said, maybe they aren’t done yet. So I will wait to  be angry. 

[Bertz]

https://www.theringer.com/2017/10/10/nfl/post-quarterback-jacksonville-jaguars-blake-bortles-denver-broncos-peyton-manning

Quote

There’s an anecdote in Ron Jaworski’s great book, The Games That Changed the Game, in which Jaworski and Jon Gruden are watching a Colts practice and Gruden asks offensive coordinator Tom Moore why Peyton Manning gets all the practice reps and the backup gets none. Moore told him: “Fellas, if ‘18’ goes down, we’re f***ed. And we don’t practice f***ed.”

Now baseball is fundamentally different than football, and quarterback is fundamentally unique within football, but when we're talking about marginally improving your #9 starter this feels pretty apt. 

If we take this transaction at face value, IMO you're much more likely to lose wins through opportunity cost, whether via the dollars or via the roster spot, than you are to gain wins by improving the reliability you can expect that far down the depth chart.

[LBiittner]

I'm going to mention Colin focking Rea everyday until Jed steps up and does something positive with the pitching staff. 

[Rcal10]

52 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I'm going to mention Colin focking Rea everyday until Jed steps up and does something positive with the pitching staff. 

You do you biitner. 

[ryanrc]

On 1/10/2025 at 4:07 PM, Bertz said:

Don't like this.  Possible explanations, in order of how much I don't like them

- There's about to be a trade coming down that impacts the pitching depth, and Rea is backfilling e.g. Assad (I do potentially like this one)

- All of the depth starters are technically optionable, so Rea is the long reliever and all of Assad, Brown, Wicks, Poteet will 100% open the year at Iowa

- One of the guys we've been counting as SP depth is viewed as 100% a reliever, e.g. Brown

- There's an injury we don't yet know about

- This is the other SP we've been promised.  Which would heavily imply that the payroll's indeed been cut

All of this sounds correct. 
My best guess:

1) Counsel will be stashing EVERY optionable starting arm, and MANY optionable bullpen arms. 
2025 is the last year Assad, Poteet, and Wicks can "work on plus offerings" in AAA and get the reps. All three of them could use more time developing one plus pitch to raise their K rates.   

2) Assad has the high upside, but 2 major problems to fix to become a stud #3 level pitcher. His 19% K rate and 9.9% walk rate. He needs at LEAST 22% and 7.5% to maintain a sub 4 ERA. If I were Counsel, I'd make him work on a plus strikeout pitch for a few AAA outings, if it's not ready by Spring Training. He relies on 6 slightly below average pitches. Maybe: a deadly Japanese splitter with Imanaga's help?

3) Fans grossly underestimate how the insane injury rate for pitchers affects roster building strategy. When you expect to need 8 - 10 starters, you want your back-end starters to be boring but RELIABLE. Boyd and Rea hopefully combine for 2 to 3 WAR, which is a 3.6-4.6 WAR gain over Hendricks negative 1.6 WAR. These were good signings precisely because these pitchers rely on a big pitch mix and control to get stable results. Hot flamethrower guys with back-rotation control levels are big injury risks and also can have wildly oscillating ERA over time - I prefer them in the bullpen. Poteet was actually a great find for depth: he also profiles as a rock-steady 1 to 1.5 WAR back-rotation guy with 5 pitches. Boyd/Assad/Rea/Poteet are close to interchangeable!!!! 

4) Only the top 3 guys will be expected to pitch a quality start. I expect Assad/Rea to split the 5th spot. If Boyd aims for 120-140 innings due to a low pitch count, they will stack a multi-inning reliever with him every time (my guess: Boyd 5 innings, Thompson 3 innings, Closer).  

5) Rea figured something out last year with his strategy, but had 3 bad outings that cost him an otherwise sub 3.6 ERA. His walk rate is much better than Assad, and the Cubs LOVE minimizing walks. Rea's control is projected to a 3.8-4.2 ERA and a 1 WAR, 100-120 inning season, 12 starts, 50 appearances, which is solidly worth the $5 mil. I think he begins as the fifth starter, and then Assad steps in around June and Rea becomes long relief. Ideally, Assad will be throwing like an All-Star in the second half of the season, while Rea quietly becomes the swingman.  

 

[chibears55]

6 hours ago, LBiittner said:

I'm going to mention Colin focking Rea everyday until Jed steps up and does something positive with the pitching staff. 

I saw they're interested in Brook Raley

😏

[LBiittner]

23 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I saw they're interested in Brook Raley

😏

Yeah he won't be pitching until possibly late season. T.J. rehabbing

Brook focking Raley. 

 

[BigbadB]

7 hours ago, ryanrc said:

All of this sounds correct. 
My best guess:

1) Counsel will be stashing EVERY optionable starting arm, and MANY optionable bullpen arms. 
2025 is the last year Assad, Poteet, and Wicks can "work on plus offerings" in AAA and get the reps. All three of them could use more time developing one plus pitch to raise their K rates.   

2) Assad has the high upside, but 2 major problems to fix to become a stud #3 level pitcher. His 19% K rate and 9.9% walk rate. He needs at LEAST 22% and 7.5% to maintain a sub 4 ERA. If I were Counsel, I'd make him work on a plus strikeout pitch for a few AAA outings, if it's not ready by Spring Training. He relies on 6 slightly below average pitches. Maybe: a deadly Japanese splitter with Imanaga's help?

3) Fans grossly underestimate how the insane injury rate for pitchers affects roster building strategy. When you expect to need 8 - 10 starters, you want your back-end starters to be boring but RELIABLE. Boyd and Rea hopefully combine for 2 to 3 WAR, which is a 3.6-4.6 WAR gain over Hendricks negative 1.6 WAR. These were good signings precisely because these pitchers rely on a big pitch mix and control to get stable results. Hot flamethrower guys with back-rotation control levels are big injury risks and also can have wildly oscillating ERA over time - I prefer them in the bullpen. Poteet was actually a great find for depth: he also profiles as a rock-steady 1 to 1.5 WAR back-rotation guy with 5 pitches. Boyd/Assad/Rea/Poteet are close to interchangeable!!!! 

4) Only the top 3 guys will be expected to pitch a quality start. I expect Assad/Rea to split the 5th spot. If Boyd aims for 120-140 innings due to a low pitch count, they will stack a multi-inning reliever with him every time (my guess: Boyd 5 innings, Thompson 3 innings, Closer).  

5) Rea figured something out last year with his strategy, but had 3 bad outings that cost him an otherwise sub 3.6 ERA. His walk rate is much better than Assad, and the Cubs LOVE minimizing walks. Rea's control is projected to a 3.8-4.2 ERA and a 1 WAR, 100-120 inning season, 12 starts, 50 appearances, which is solidly worth the $5 mil. I think he begins as the fifth starter, and then Assad steps in around June and Rea becomes long relief. Ideally, Assad will be throwing like an All-Star in the second half of the season, while Rea quietly becomes the swingman.  

 

Welcome!

[Jason Ross]

Cubs make it official. DFA Michael Arias.

[Rob]

14 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Cubs make it official. DFA Michael Arias.

Ooof. I'd have rather had Arias.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Michael Arias' career best walk rate was a hair under 12%, in 24 IP at AA this year, and he was completely uncompetitive at AAA.  He is fun to dream on but as a relief only prospect the ramp to the end of the 40 man carousel is a steep one.

[Jason Ross]

Arias has upside, and frankly, would have been absolutely fine had the team DFA' Killian over him. With that said, it's probably preferential choice, and while I think Killian isn't an MLB arm, he's probably more likely to be used in 2025 if things got a little sideways. So I think its fine they did something a little bit differently than I maybe would have if given the choice (though it's kind of 6 in one hand, for me).

Cool story, think the Rea contract looks like a stinker if they don't clean up a bit of the redundancy, but the DFA is kind of in the "whatever" bin. There's something to dream on but hes unlikely to fulfill a return.

[Bertz]

I can't find it currently but IIRC the Stuff models thought Arias was good not great.  And with his lack of control I think you'd need stuff that makes you do the Tex Avery eyes to be all that upset about losing him.

[Post Count Padder]

Quote

The Yankees announced that they have acquired right-hander Michael Arias from the Cubs in exchange for cash considerations. The latter club had designated Arias for assignment earlier this week. The Yankees have multiple 40-man vacancies and don’t need to make a corresponding move.

That's disappointing. I had hoped maybe we'd get an interesting lower level prospect. Or some bonus pool cash.