Bears week 11 vs Packers Sunday at noon on Fox

[BigSlick]

9 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

if Eberflus says - "Ya know what? horsefeathers them, lets get as many yards possible in two plays and try to make the FG attempt much easier or even a TD, go Caleb." -  I'm certain we'd be talking about a Bears victory today.

I want to be very clear here: I think you absolutely take another play. You try to center the ball and you get as close as you can for Santos. But it’s not a guaranteed positive play, given Caleb was sacked twice on that drive alone. I don’t think it’s guaranteed to have benefited the Bears. 

[gflore34]

I know exactly what's going to happen next week: Caleb will play well, 2-3 TD passes, they'll build a double digit lead with about 5 minutes left in the game.  And proceed to lose because dick-less, in plus territory, 2:30 left on the clock, fourth and inches, chooses to punt, instead trying to ice the game by getting a first down.

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

I want to be very clear here: I think you absolutely take another play. You try to center the ball and you get as close as you can for Santos. But it’s not a guaranteed positive play, given Caleb was sacked twice on that drive alone. I don’t think it’s guaranteed to have benefited the Bears. 

Run a 5 yard out at the sideline, if it's not there Caleb tosses the ball away. There was so many options other then do nothing.

[gflore34]

3 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

I want to be very clear here: I think you absolutely take another play. You try to center the ball and you get as close as you can for Santos. But it’s not a guaranteed positive play, given Caleb was sacked twice on that drive alone. I don’t think it’s guaranteed to have benefited the Bears. 

Given the previous three plays, riding that emotion, I think there's a real good chance something positive happens.

[Tryptamine]

23 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Caleb had a 85.2 PFF rating yesterday, highest a QB has had against GB this year.  One of the biggest things that sucks about the ending is that while I recognize he had a solid game, the stink of the loss makes me not want to spend too much time thinking about it.  But still, positive signs.  That 4th down throw on the final drive had to be placed absolutely perfectly and it was.  Takes balls to make that throw with the game on the line. 

 

I'm not even that upset about yesterday's game. I'm definitely far less upset than after the hail Mary and that abomination of a New England game. Caleb's numbers weren't eye popping, but given who they played, I thought Caleb was very well and that's the biggest take away for me. When they're not trying to force downfield plays with a back up Oline, Caleb gets the job done. Hopefully after next draft he'll have the Oline to go hunting for those bigger plays on a more consistent basis. 

[UMFan83]

49 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Run a 5 yard out at the sideline, if it's not there Caleb tosses the ball away. There was so many options other then do nothing.

Exactly.  I would have run a 5 yard out, maybe twice or another type of short pass if it doesn't work out the first play.  Best case scenario you gain 5-10 yards and still have a TO in your pocket if you want to run it.  Worst case scenario you get tacked in bounds and have to burn that TO and lose a little flexibility.  I guess the real worst case scenario is Caleb throws an INT but if you cant trust your QB to not throw an INT on a short out pass with the game on the line, that's a big problem.

The Bears had complete control of the game and the clock as long as they held that timeout and they chose to take all that control out of their hands because they were scared of a negative play.  Season was essentially on the line and Eberflus chose to coach scared and got burned for it.  We knew he would because that's how he's coached for 3 years in these situations.

Edited November 18, 2024 by UMFan83

[jersey cubs fan]

53 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I know exactly what's going to happen next week: Caleb will play well, 2-3 TD passes, they'll build a double digit lead with about 5 minutes left in the game.  And proceed to lose because dick-less, in plus territory, 2:30 left on the clock, fourth and inches, chooses to punt, instead trying to ice the game by getting a first down.

 

[jersey cubs fan]

For the record I do not seem them building a double digit lead at any time next week. 
 

they had their circle the wagons game this week. 

[PosterToBeNamedLater]

2 hours ago, mul21 said:

It's because Harbaugh actually knows what he's doing and in spite of being an incredible weirdo, he's willing to take the appropriate risks as needed.  There's a reason he's got a team that won 5 (?) games last year at 7 wins already.

Not only that.  It seems like the chargers are a good example here.  I don't follow them closely, but I do remember that for the entire Brandon Staley era, every week seemed to be that they lost another close game that they either could have won or shouldn't have lost.  Listening to national podcasts, they were constantly talking about how they can't bring him back/have to fire him.  

Here is a quote from from a story after one of their losses just about a year ago to the packers:

Quote

Sunday was yet another painful reminder that this team is never going to have it with Staley calling the shots. Losing close games is part of the NFL experience and no coach is immune to losing these games. But the best-coached teams in the league win these games. Losing close games over and over isn't something to celebrate, it is a sign of bad coaching that cannot get over the hump.

They moved on and are now 7-3 this year after constantly losing winnable games (and even having a bad salary cap situation in the offseason).  

[gflore34]

There's definitely something real and good with Caleb, it's a shame to waste it with Eberflus for next 7 games.  This not Nagy with a flawed Mitch and Justin or Eberflus with a flawed Justin, a decent HC with Caleb puts an end to the Packers dominance.  They're just wasting precious development time by letting Eberflus continue, as many have said, they don't deserve to have fans.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What a cursed season.  It's like a reverse 2006.   I still think that it's a plausible explanation that this is a freakish run of negative variance not an inherent trait of people employed by the team, but I'm not going to die on that hill or argue with anyone who thinks it's Eberflus.

We're literally a blocked FG and a hail mary defense away from being 6-4, sitting in a playoff spot and holding tiebreakers over the Commanders and Packers.  Williams would be famous for already having two game-winning final-minute drives in his first 10 games in the NFL.    Instead we aren't going to see a meaningful Bears game for 10 months.

Too numb to it to actually watch the film breakdowns at this point, but I thought Williams looked fine but not amazing for most of the game, then bonus points for operating another successful two-minute drill.   It felt like they made a conscious effort to work more horizontal and less vertical, which meshes with Williams, but it's always easier to look good when you are putting a new offense on film for the first time.

His bread and butter in the NFL, the skill that makes him a franchise QB, needs to be his quick release.  He showed it on the fourth and 2 play where he went through his progressions and hit his checkdown. It didn't look crazy impressive, but the release on his checkdown where he didn't need to reset his feet makes a huge difference for YAC and denying defenses a chance to close.

[Cubfanintheknow]

2 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Exactly.  I would have run a 5 yard out, maybe twice or another type of short pass if it doesn't work out the first play.  Best case scenario you gain 5-10 yards and still have a TO in your pocket if you want to run it.  Worst case scenario you get tacked in bounds and have to burn that TO and lose a little flexibility.  I guess the real worst case scenario is Caleb throws an INT but if you cant trust your QB to not throw an INT on a short out pass with the game on the line, that's a big problem.

The Bears had complete control of the game and the clock as long as they held that timeout and they chose to take all that control out of their hands because they were scared of a negative play.  Season was essentially on the line and Eberflus chose to coach scared and got burned for it.  We knew he would because that's how he's coached for 3 years in these situations.

This graphic is bringing out a lot of emotions in me. And none of them good.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They lost one of these last year when they went for it on fourth down instead of taking a long field goal to extend their lead, I think it was the Denver game.

The Packers' biggest play, the fingertip diving catch, came on a sell-out blitz.

Eberflus doesn't always play scared, sometimes he's aggressive in these situations.  No matter what he picks it seems to turn out wrong.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Williams pace is now 3427 yards, 15 TDs, 9 ITs.

That's a really, really solid rookie season.

[Brian707]

7 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

No matter what he picks it seems to turn out wrong.

He is like a bad gambler, no matter what its a losing proposition

[jersey cubs fan]

Just now, Brian707 said:

He is like a bad gambler, no matter what its a losing proposition

William H Eberflus as…,

The Cooler

 

[Brian707]

Ah yes, I forgot about that movie

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, PosterToBeNamedLater said:

Not only that.  It seems like the chargers are a good example here.  I don't follow them closely, but I do remember that for the entire Brandon Staley era, every week seemed to be that they lost another close game that they either could have won or shouldn't have lost.  Listening to national podcasts, they were constantly talking about how they can't bring him back/have to fire him.  

Here is a quote from from a story after one of their losses just about a year ago to the packers:

They moved on and are now 7-3 this year after constantly losing winnable games (and even having a bad salary cap situation in the offseason).  

Bad salary cap situation, got rid of their top 2 WRs and instead of taking Nabers or Rome to replace them, took a tackle with the 5th pick.  That tackle has been one of PFFs highest rated rookies so far this year.  They then used a 2nd round pick on McConkey who has outproduced Rome by a decent margin.   Most people expected this to be a rebuilding year for the Chargers given all the changes but here they are at 7-3 and headed towards a playoff spot while the Bears, who felt confident enough about their team to take a punter in the 4th round are virtually eliminated from playoff consideration with 7 games to play.

I know Kyle will never agree with me on this but its coaching.  It absolutely helps that they have an established elite QB who has thrown 1 INT this year but he was playing at an elite level when they were losing close games constantly too.  Coaching matters and I refuse to believe otherwise.

Edited November 18, 2024 by UMFan83

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Bad salary cap situation, got rid of their top 2 WRs and instead of taking Nabers or Rome to replace them, took a tackle with the 5th pick.  That tackle has been one of PFFs highest rated rookies so far this year.  They then used a 2nd round pick on McConkey who has outproduced Rome by a decent margin.   Most people expected this to be a rebuilding year for the Chargers given all the changes but here they are at 7-3 and headed towards a playoff spot while the Bears, who felt confident enough about their team to take a punter in the 4th round are virtually eliminated from playoff consideration with 7 games to play.

I know Kyle will never agree with me on this but its coaching.  Coaching matters and I refuse to believe otherwise.

It's not even coaching.  It's lack of preparation (or wrong/bad preparation, however you want to look at it) and bad decision making.  Eberflus is bad at details and that's why they're 5-17 in one score games instead of .500, which is easily made up by the 3 blown games last year and the 2 bad losses this year and I'm sure it would be easy to find another to add to the list but this is already too depressing.

[UMFan83]

44 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Williams pace is now 3427 yards, 15 TDs, 9 ITs.

That's a really, really solid rookie season.

I definitely look like a dick posting this but I wanted to look at a comparison after reading your post...not trying to horsefeathers on Caleb because I was encouraged yesterday and I honestly think at his *best* Caleb has looked better than the others, even Daniels.  But its been very inconsistent so far.  All these numbers are projected over 17 games...Maye's projection is more of a stretch because his pace is only based on 6 games while the others have started every game so far.

	Yards	Comp %	YPA	TD	INT	QB rating	QBR
Daniels	3613	68.7	8.0	15	5	99.6	67.7
Nix	3516	65.5	6.4	22	9	89.3	55.4
Williams	3427	61.8	6.2	15	9	82.3	44.2
Maye	3002	66.8	6.8	22	15	87.5	59.3

[Derwood]

I promise you that if you swapped Williams for Nix pre-season, their numbers would be swapped as well. Nix would not flourish on the Bears but Williams would be better on the Broncos

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Bad salary cap situation, got rid of their top 2 WRs and instead of taking Nabers or Rome to replace them, took a tackle with the 5th pick.  That tackle has been one of PFFs highest rated rookies so far this year.  They then used a 2nd round pick on McConkey who has outproduced Rome by a decent margin.   Most people expected this to be a rebuilding year for the Chargers given all the changes but here they are at 7-3 and headed towards a playoff spot while the Bears, who felt confident enough about their team to take a punter in the 4th round are virtually eliminated from playoff consideration with 7 games to play.

I know Kyle will never agree with me on this but its coaching.  It absolutely helps that they have an established elite QB who has thrown 1 INT this year but he was playing at an elite level when they were losing close games constantly too.  Coaching matters and I refuse to believe otherwise.

I don't know if I'd say I would never agree.  I'll change my mind if I see enough evidence.

I just feel like "great coach" is always hindsight proxy for "team that we didn't expect to do well but is" regardless of any consistency.  

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

I definitely look like a dick posting this but I wanted to look at a comparison after reading your post...not trying to horsefeathers on Caleb because I was encouraged yesterday and I honestly think at his *best* Caleb has looked better than the others, even Daniels.  But its been very inconsistent so far.  All these numbers are projected over 17 games...Maye's projection is more of a stretch because his pace is only based on 6 games while the others have started every game so far.

	Yards	Comp %	YPA	TD	INT	QB rating	QBR
Daniels	3613	68.7	8.0	15	5	99.6	67.7
Nix	3516	65.5	6.4	22	9	89.3	55.4
Williams	3427	61.8	6.2	15	9	82.3	44.2
Maye	3002	66.8	6.8	22	15	87.5	59.3

That's totally fair. But for me, I don't need Williams to be the best in his class.  I just want him to be an unquestioned franchise qb and hold down the job for a decade. Even if he's Kyler Murray level 

[BigSlick]

At this moment, Caleb Williams has had 6 pretty stinker games (and in one of those stinkers, he led what should have been a GW drive), 3 unquestionably good games, and 1 arguably ok game (Rams game I'd say is ambiguous). So, he's definitely not been top top - but just from the eye test I am pretty happy with where he's at. The numbers are rough on him, but that's not really the only thing I trust when it comes to evaluating QBs. BUT, he still has more bad/mediocre games at this point than good ones, and those are just facts we gotta deal with. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

48 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

At this moment, Caleb Williams has had 6 pretty stinker games (and in one of those stinkers, he led what should have been a GW drive), 3 unquestionably good games, and 1 arguably ok game (Rams game I'd say is ambiguous). So, he's definitely not been top top - but just from the eye test I am pretty happy with where he's at. The numbers are rough on him, but that's not really the only thing I trust when it comes to evaluating QBs. BUT, he still has more bad/mediocre games at this point than good ones, and those are just facts we gotta deal with. 

I don't mind the inconsistency so long as the highs are high as a rookie.

 

If he still has that ratio in year 3, we have an issue