Non-Soto FA thread

[LBiittner]

I'm wondering if current kyle hendricks could put up the same quality numbers in Japan as sugano did this season? 

[Tryptamine]

12 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

My somewhat pedantic counter point would be this: isn't that kind of the same thing, though? The reason he didn't translate is because he didn't throw enough strikes. I'd say that's the same thing. We have seen this with MiLB arms too - guys appear to not walk hitters until hitters become better and don't chase their stuff. Fuinami didn't walk hitters in the NPB very often (most years).

I'm certainly not informed enough to know this, but I have to wonder if this is more a result of tinkering with his mechanics, as it's been rather unusual to see such a drastic change in control in command from one league to another. Perhaps I'm wrong, but the vast majority of the time it seems to be a "stuff" issue translating from one league to the other.

[Cuzi]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

I'm certainly not informed enough to know this, but I have to wonder if this is more a result of tinkering with his mechanics, as it's been rather unusual to see such a drastic change in control in command from one league to another. Perhaps I'm wrong, but the vast majority of the time it seems to be a "stuff" issue translating from one league to the other.

Probably more tinkering with philosophy. JPL pitches to contact and the hitters hit for contact. Here, the hitters hit for power so the pitchers arent going to get away with the same stuff.

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

Not denying he was/is a douche but guys like Mookie Betts have gone on record to say they love him and hope he gets another chance. And the whole unconscious story was provided by someone who lied, so...

I didn't expect anyone to like the idea, because media drives narrative and the media hates him so therefore the majority of people will hate him and he becomes a poison pill. It's just funny to me how accusations, none of which were founded, turns a Cy Young pitcher into someone no one wants to touch.

Actually I've thought a good amount on my own and decided that he sucks a lot at the very, very least and I don't want him anywhere near the Cubs, and those conclusions have nothing to do with the media. But appreciate the implication that we're all just sheep following 'the media' and you're the only free thinker around these parts. 

[Jason Ross]

39 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm certainly not informed enough to know this, but I have to wonder if this is more a result of tinkering with his mechanics, as it's been rather unusual to see such a drastic change in control in command from one league to another. Perhaps I'm wrong, but the vast majority of the time it seems to be a "stuff" issue translating from one league to the other.

I'd guess it's a combination of a handful of things - tinkering with mechanics, tinkering with pitch mix, tinkering with pitch shape....

I do think there's a good deal of "stuff" being the deciding factor. But I think that's probably been, historically, a reason for the failure of most prospects in general. Many times it's been said that the NPB is somewhere in the vicinity of Double-A to Triple-A (though with the gulf between the MLB and Triple-A growing, it's hard to really pin point it now. But someone like Sam Armstrong is cruising in Tennessee right now but stuff wise he's a long shot to be an impact MLB arm. 

But yeah, certainly no Fujunami expert here either! Only a real cursory knowledge of him. 

[thawv]

4 hours ago, Stratos said:

Ah ok, I just used a very rough estimate with about 10-15m for arb and other raises and typical bench/pen small contracts.  

I did  a detailed breakdown on current contracts, the 4 arb guys I think the tender, 0-3 guys, 0-3 bonus pool money, 40 man guys, and player benefits. 

[imb]

the names in this thread are already depressing enough without someone advocating for a rapist

[SouthSideRyan]

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Terribly unlucky that he managed to find 4 different fraudsters to accuse him of sexual assault.

Also he's 34 and was wedged between Zac Grotz and David Reyes in Mexican League performance.  It's over.

Ok, let's sign Zac Grotz

Edited October 23, 2024 by SouthSideRyan

[Transmogrified Tiger]

15 minutes ago, SouthSideRyan said:

Ok, let's sign Zac Grotz

Problem #2, Ricketts refuses to transact in Pesos

[Outshined_One]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Long winded answer (sorry, it's my nature), I just don't think Sugano would be my top-5 guys I'd be looking for. If it's mid-January, the Cubs have struck out across the board (through real efforts) and we are still looking for the rotational piece? I'd cycle back to Sugano as I don't think he's a turd. I just don't think he's anything atop my wish list and the Cubs should be at a point where being picky early and getting the best guy should be their priority.

We're in accord on this point!  My initial post was more, "This seems like something the Cubs would do," than "This is something I want the Cubs to do," followed by me trying to talk myself into thinking it wasn't a bad idea because I'm trying to avoid the seemingly inevitable disappointment I'll be feeling when we're approaching Spring Training and debating if the Cubs should roll the dice on Luis Severino to fill out the rotation.

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

We're in accord on this point!  My initial post was more, "This seems like something the Cubs would do," than "This is something I want the Cubs to do," followed by me trying to talk myself into thinking it wasn't a bad idea because I'm trying to avoid the seemingly inevitable disappointment I'll be feeling when we're approaching Spring Training and debating if the Cubs should roll the dice on Luis Severino to fill out the rotation.

We fully agree here. I'm trying to hype myself up to think that the Cubs are ready to do something surprising here and kind of break their recent mold (I'm really of the mind that it's really a good time to make a headlining move for a defined, very good player outside of the budget/value conscious style of recent times). I fear the same disappointment of a Luis Severino or a Walker Buehler (though Walker's from Lexington, so itd be cool to see a home town guy on the Cubs). 

[Tryptamine]

15 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

We fully agree here. I'm trying to hype myself up to think that the Cubs are ready to do something surprising here and kind of break their recent mold (I'm really of the mind that it's really a good time to make a headlining move for a defined, very good player outside of the budget/value conscious style of recent times). I fear the same disappointment of a Luis Severino or a Walker Buehler (though Walker's from Lexington, so itd be cool to see a home town guy on the Cubs). 

The super hype Cub offseasons died after the Jason Heyward signing. Since then it's been mostly pining for 1st tier players while settling for 2nd and 3rd tier FA

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

The super hype Cub offseasons died after the Jason Heyward signing. Since then it's been mostly pining for 1st tier players while settling for 2nd and 3rd tier FA

I know this deep down. But someone like Bruce Levine is going to tweet that the Cubs haven't internally ruled out Juan Soto and I'm going to like get really hype for four days like I've never been hurt before.

[Tryptamine]

12 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I know this deep down. But someone like Bruce Levine is going to tweet that the Cubs haven't internally ruled out Juan Soto and I'm going to like get really hype for four days like I've never been hurt before.

Nope, not getting suckered in again. I was so sure Bryce Harper was a Cub. Then I thought last offseason, surely they'll be all in on a franchise changing talent like Ohtani. I expect more of the same. You'll get a tid bit of info here and there that gives you hope, but once the smoke clears you'll find out the Cubs were never even seriously involved. What I'm really scared about is that if they do decide to make a splash it's going to be something I truly hate like 7/240 to Burnes or 6/180 to Alonso. 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, LBiittner said:

For all of us contemplating the Cubs having somewhere between $50-70million depending on belli, the Mets currently have roughly $195million coming off the books post W.S. After tasting the playoffs, they will be the other team not named the Yankees or dodgers to compete against for virtually every quality free agent jed may look into.

This is a sobering thought.

Ya but Bobby Bonilla still on it tho.

 

195 not in AAV right?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

Ya but Bobby Bonilla still on it tho.

 

195 not in AAV right?

It is 195 in AAV.

[NorthsideAvenger]

19 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Nope, not getting suckered in again. I was so sure Bryce Harper was a Cub. Then I thought last offseason, surely they'll be all in on a franchise changing talent like Ohtani. I expect more of the same. You'll get a tid bit of info here and there that gives you hope, but once the smoke clears you'll find out the Cubs were never even seriously involved. What I'm really scared about is that if they do decide to make a splash it's going to be something I truly hate like 7/240 to Burnes or 6/180 to Alonso. 

Yep. Soto is not escaping from NY.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I know this deep down. But someone like Bruce Levine is going to tweet that the Cubs haven't internally ruled out Juan Soto and I'm going to like get really hype for four days like I've never been hurt before.

Especially if Bellinger is gone and the team's got ~$80M to spend expect the team to be tied to everyone.  It won't be true but agents will want it to be and it'll be plausible and Morosi/Heyman/Nightingale don't really gaf 

[LBiittner]

55 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Yep. Soto is not escaping from NY.

Thanks, now all I can see is Soto dressed up like Kurt Russell 

[thawv]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I know this deep down. But someone like Bruce Levine is going to tweet that the Cubs haven't internally ruled out Juan Soto and I'm going to like get really hype for four days like I've never been hurt before.

You're smarter than that.

 

[Jason Ross]

30 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Especially if Bellinger is gone and the team's got ~$80M to spend expect the team to be tied to everyone.  It won't be true but agents will want it to be and it'll be plausible and Morosi/Heyman/Nightingale don't really gaf 

Haha I know. That was a tongue in cheek comment about how I know better, I just know future me won't take my own advice for like a few days every offseason. I'm more than capable 99% of the time. But some Friday night at 9:15pm I'll read a tweet and get optimistic for a hot minute. I'll be able to rationalize with myself again shortly after. 

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, thawv said:

You're smarter than that.

 

Y'all are taking me far too seriously today. I know this. 'Twas but a tounge in cheek joke, friend. 

[LBiittner]

Just wondering if there was any confirmation as to which players jed was scouting in Japan during his last visit? Did reporters notice if jed took any staff with him or merely his wife? I mean, was it a full-fledged work trip or an in-season vaykay?

[Stratos]

9 hours ago, Bertz said:

God help me I'm on the same side of an issue as Cuzi but yeah to whatever extent older pitchers are riskier I think it's more than made up for by the way the market has recoiled in fear at them.  I'd MUCH rather sign a 34 year old to a 3 year deal than sign a 24 year old with identical stats and repertoire to a 5 or 6 year deal.  It's not even close in my mind.

24 y/o is a different situation.  Would you sign Max Fried at age 31 to 5 years or a hypothetical 34 or 35 y/o Fried with the same stats for 3 years?  I'm signing the 31 y/o

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Stratos said:

24 y/o is a different situation.  Would you sign Max Fried at age 31 to 5 years or a hypothetical 34 or 35 y/o Fried with the same stats for 3 years?  I'm signing the 31 y/o

But if you signed Fried for 5 years you have him at 33,34, and 35 the last 3 years of his deal. And, honestly I think he will get 6 years. So add 36 too. So rather than worry about Eovaldi now you have to worry about an aging pitcher in a few years. And on top of that, the aging pitcher at that time will be being paid more than Eovaldi. Plus, you run the risk of him getting hurt even before he gets older. Now if that happens you have a guy in a 6 year deal for a high annual salary who is injured. For me I would rather take the short term risk who also happens to be a right handed pitcher and will cost less annual and in years, and not cost the Cubs a penalty because of  QO. Bottom line is there is risk everywhere with pitchers. But the best ones want to get paid well into their mid to late 30’s.